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Originally posted by lasertaglover
reply to post by OceanStone
I am sorry if this is kinda off topic, but so many disaster preparation plans do not consider the most important asset when all else fails, your feet. You never know when it might be really important to get away quickly by foot.
“Here’s the moral of the story, that a complex situation may take a few days to resolve but when it does we’re liable to have a tropical storm or hurricane between Cuba and Central America that has to come north straight for Florida and the southeast U.S. next week,” Bastardi said. “And that is probably what’s going to happen.”
Water temperatures are higher in the Gulf than they were in 2005, when Hurricane Katrina formed, and there is low wind shear in the area, Rouiller said. Wind shear tears at the structure of hurricanes, preventing them from developing, while warm water can help storms grow in intensity.
Bastardi said he believes the major site of storm development has now shifted to the Caribbean and away from the central Atlantic.
“There are another seven or eight storms in the gun and four or five of them that are going to develop in areas where it is relatively close to the United States,” Bastardi said. “I fully anticipate that the highest part of the impact season on the U.S. coast is still to come.”
You never know, maybe a visitng Canadian in Tampa who is an ATS member might not worry about a Cat 1 there, so decides to go jogging in the middle of the storm. (oops, sorry to all Canadians, and especially after dealing with hurricanes so much this year yourselves)
A closeup of the forecast model tracks from our Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map shows the problem. The center of circulation is expected to move over warm water, drift over mountainous terrain, back over warm water and perhaps more land. That means the storm could get stronger, weaker, stronger and then weaker again. Maybe. It depends on the track.
One hurricane forecast model suggests the storm will stall offshore and strengthen. Another shows the storm dissipating and then reforming next week and tracking right into the Gulf of Mexico.