Really strange......... the center of circulation is apparently west of us, but the primary convection is south of us. TS warning here. It's not
uncommon for a COC to wander around in these conditions; I kinda wonder if it's "trying" to reform under the convection. If it does, that will be
Nicole. Might be Nicole soon anyway, even if the COC stays where it is.
5 1/2 inches of rain since last night. Not so bad. Very little lightning, thankfully. You all in Cuba, Jamaica, Florida keep a good eye on
this; NOAA Rainbow IR
looks to me as if TD 16 is compacting somewhat south of us,
and getting better outflow.
GFS short-run model
develops Nicole and
takes it across Florida and into the Carolinas, as well as another system in the wake.
By the way, just in case anyone is unfamiliar with the short model runs......... here's what you do:
1. Click on the main page of the Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclogenesis page
2. Select the model you want to run and click "submit" under the right-hand "get image" column.
3. Scroll the bar to the right and on the right-hand side, click "Forward"; This puts the model graphics into motion
4. the bottom of the page has the color key, so you know how intense of a storm they are predicting.
That's why I was fairly sure this was at least a TD this morning, when our barometer read 998mb.
Good luck all, especially those of you in flood-prone areas. Be safe!
ETA: The NOAA flash maps have a lot of powerful tools...... (such as the Rainbow IR above): you can zoom into any area you want, plus click on
boxes to display High, Mid and low density winds, SSTs, temp. etc.
ALL NESDIS maps here
edit on 28/9/10 by argentus because: to add more stuff, of course