Hurricane Watch 2010

Never mind Antar, I see you already posted the information. Nice.

Will visit your thread.

Toni

P.S, Guess your thread is a duplicate. Thanks for the link to the other thread!

Number 12 is here, but will more than likely not do much.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...


...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LISA...TWELFTH OF THE ATLANTIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 31.8W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

They predict Igor to still be a hurricane as it nears Greenland and into the Labrador Sea . That's pretty much unheard of - and at the end of September no less.

Source

Originally posted by Gazrok
A cat 1's basically our equivalent of a summer thunderstorm here in FL.....

This is the most irresponsible statement I have ever heard... when we are all out there trying to help people understand how storms should be taken very seriously so there are no injuries or death... how dare you?

And how many people reading this has lost a loved one because of this kind of attitude?

Here are some facts...

Some Category 1 Hurricanes...

Hurricane Alice (1954) Today's equal $4.7 million, 626 houses were destroyed or severely damaged.

Danny (1985) Killed 3 people, 2 direct, 1 indirect, $100 million dollars in damage.

Jerry (1989) Killed 3 people and $70 million.

Ismael (1995) 52 ships were wrecked, killing 57 fishermen and on land 59 deaths = 116 total deaths, 30,000 people homeless, $37.1 million in damage.

Gaston (2004) killed 9 directly and 1 indirectly $130 million in damage.

Claudette (2003) killed 1

Hanna (2008) 537 deaths were reported...

Please get facts straight before you start proclaiming that a Cat 1 hurricane is like a summer storm.

reply to post by OceanStone


That is a very impressive list of storm damage.

The problem is that so many people ignore even more powerful storms than Cat 1-2, that it makes it so much harder to get people to respect weaker storms (as compared to Cat 3-5).

I remember arguing with my buddy on the phone when Katrina was getting closer. He wouldn't listen about that monster, so it does make me worried when people downplay the danger of any type of storm. I lost a good friend because people are just plain dumb, or stubborn, or both, to listen to reason.

Any strong storm should be watched with caution, and any storm that is listed as a hurricane, regardless of Category, should be viewed with extreme caution.

reply to post by Anmarie96


Good observation.

It is pretty late in the season to be keeping such strength so far north.

It showed the damage Igor did in Newfoundland on the news tonight. Lots of damage, an elderly man presumably washed out to sea, along with his driveway.

news.yahoo.com...

Royal Canadian Mounted Police Sgt. Boyd Merrill said they were investigating a report of a missing 80-year old man who was reportedly washed into the sea on Tuesday morning on Random Island when a driveway collapsed from underneath him due to heavy water flow. Merrill said police and the coast guard have not been able to access the island.

Williams said it caused tens of millions of dollars in damages and said it's the hardest they've been hit in recent memory. He said 14 communities have declared a state of emergency and said 27 communities are isolated as a result of washouts and road damages. He said the damage is significant. "There are a lot of homes that are nearly completely submerged. Barns and structures have been washed away, completely out to sea," Williams said.

reply to post by snowspirit

Wow... Igor is still causing so much trouble. That's scary that the driveway collapsed right underneath that poor soul.

Just heard on our news that historically speaking in this area of the Caribbean...this new development that has developed has a 95% chance of becoming a hurricane and hitting Florida. So guess we'll be watching this one...

This is what I found...

Another area, not marked as an invest, is worth watching as several long range models (GFS, EMCWF) are trending toward the possibility of a Gulf coast US impact. As it has not formed yet, it's just a general watch area, but it has a good chance to develop later in the week or weekend.

The odds currently favor it turning more northward into the gulf, and being a possible impact somewhere along the central and eastern half of the gulf, but confidence is only about 60%. It's the first Caribbean developing system of the year that the odds favored that vs going more westerly into the Yucatan (Which is also still a possibility with this). So this area will probably be the story for the next week or two.

FLHurricane

I know, I know... sorry about the double post but look at what they're saying today...

The wave in the eastern Caribbean (95L) continues to be the one to watch into next week. Odds favor the system getting close or moving into Nicaragua/Honduras (may or may not be a full storm by then) and possibly curving northward potentially putting Central and Eastern Gulf coasts at risk.

Likelihood of it forming into a hurricane is fairly high, it's questionable if it can do that before Honduras/Nicaragua though, or after. Depends on the next few days. If it forms, the most likely time it would form is Friday or Saturday. If things persist more, it could be sooner than that.

FLHurricane

On a side note... I feel I was a wee bit hard on Gazrok... had my knickers in a knot for a while and I didn't like it, made it hard for me to walk... so peace.... but please take storms seriously, I don't want to see you flying over my house! ha..

No problem (I can take it, hehe...), just that we've seen more damage from the summer storms than Cat 1 or even Cat 2 storms in my area, over the past 20 years or so. It's more of a comment on the strength of the summer storms.

In fact, the most destruction in my neighborhood, happened years ago during a no-name storm that came out of nowhere (it's even referred to locally as "the no-name storm" or "storm of the century"). Knocked down trees, power lines, and power was out for a couple of days in most places.

While the comment could be construed as irresponsible, and I'd agree it kind of is, it doesn't change the perception. Most Bay Area Floridians shrug at a Cat 1 or Cat 2 storm. In fact, I'd wager most businesses will even stay open, even when the Warning is active, during a Cat 1 storm. I'm not saying it's right, but it is the common perception. I remember I called in once during such a storm (when we were under an active warning), and they gave me grief about it (my area was prone to flooding during the storms, and I didn't want to be unable to drive home).

reply to post by Gazrok


While I only lived in Tampa when I was very young (I still talk about the snow that one morning often), I remember how wrongly excited I was as a teen living near New Smyrna Beach when Hugo passed by on its was to the Carolina's back in '89.

As a young kid, all I cared about was surfing the waves that Hugo pounded the Florida coast with. It was very stupid of me and my friends in regards to the danger to our own lives, but it was even dumber that I could not see the storm for what it was, a killer and destroyer.

People in Florida are probably more de-sensitized to Hurricanes than in any other part of the US, since they get the most. But many people from other states, or countries, whom are not as informed about hurricanes as Floridians, might not know that a Cat 1 can be a killer. They might not know that most people in Tampa check the tide forecast to see for themselves how bad the storm is going to be.

Well, I am glad that I all I ever have to deal with is tornados, blizzards, and the occasional ice storm now. Hurricanes are very dangerous, regardless of intensity to anyone who does not know the danger.

You never know, maybe a visitng Canadian in Tampa who is an ATS member might not worry about a Cat 1 there, so decides to go jogging in the middle of the storm. (oops, sorry to all Canadians, and especially after dealing with hurricanes so much this year yourselves).

Anyway, back to the storm tracking...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR DATA FROM
CURACAO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
NNNN

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Hey all my hurricane hunting buddies.... look at this... is this not crazy?

Seems it's way to early to even guesstimate?....

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/4707a6194bef.jpg[/atsimg]

Found it here...

Mike's Weather Page

reply to post by OceanStone


That is a pretty crazy forecast.

Stormpulse is showing some rather eractic patterns, with just a few of them going in that direction as well.

Definitely have to keep an eye on this one. The next update on it from the NHC should be around 8pm.

www.stormpulse.com...

reply to post by OceanStone


I agree with both statements ---

You're not crazy, as most of the model short runs are indicating a current probability of a curve of 95L over or near Cuba, and

yes, it's too soon to tell.

I'm in Phase 1 response -- laundry, shed and yard cleanup. Phase 2 is rechecking supplies, and immersion in weather sites in the wee hours until my eyes cross.

If any of you think it would be useful, I wouldn't mind posting our written hurricane response plan. Naturally, it's tailored toward our situation. I'm not trying to imply that I have a handle on everything or that I'm the only one that's prepared. I've found it useful to have a written plan.

Let's watch this one closely.

Originally posted by argentus
reply to post by OceanStone

 

If any of you think it would be useful, I wouldn't mind posting our written hurricane response plan. Naturally, it's tailored toward our situation. I'm not trying to imply that I have a handle on everything or that I'm the only one that's prepared. I've found it useful to have a written plan.

Let's watch this one closely.

Please post your written hurricane plans.... I'm sure it would help so many people... I personally would love to read it!

And I'll admit, I certainly am not prepared... ummm sad to say to be completely prepared you need extra resources and as most people aren't in a position to spend any extra money.... it does get complicated.

I loved when you said you've been reading and watching the weather until your eyes are crossed... ha... me too! What I have read is that a few people that are very credible have been saying that this might be "the storm that Tampa is over due for".... AHHHHH.... good googly moogly!

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/5ec9278827fb.jpg[/atsimg]

Originally posted by Gazrok

 

I'm not saying it's right, but it is the common perception. I remember I called in once during such a storm (when we were under an active warning), and they gave me grief about it (my area was prone to flooding during the storms, and I didn't want to be unable to drive home).

I know, I've been subject to this same situation.... I just don't understand, so lives and family are less important then the financial bottom line for businesses? Not good.

Originally posted by lasertaglover

 

People in Florida are probably more de-sensitized to Hurricanes than in any other part of the US, since they get the most. But many people from other states, or countries, whom are not as informed about hurricanes as Floridians, might not know that a Cat 1 can be a killer. They might not know that most people in Tampa check the tide forecast to see for themselves how bad the storm is going to be.

Yes, I totally agree... and I was de-sensitized but learned my lesson when Hurricane Frances hit... I will never take any storm lightly from now on!

I would love to read the plans for your area argentus! Sometimes there is something that one community has thought of, which might help a different community out.

Personally, I always find that most lists forget to mention what sounds really dumb, but is really important. If you get flooded, and your car is not working, how are you going to get out and get help if you need it? You have to walk. So, my old army drill sergeant told me a bit of advice that I have used ever since, no matter if you are packing an emergency bag for hurricane preparation, or an earthquake survival kit, or even if you are packing up to go to war...always pack 2-3 pairs of socks in a zip-lock bag.

Bad feet means you are not going anywhere quick. Socks can be used as an emergency tourniquet if you have nothing else and the sock is long enough. Since they are abosrbent, you can also use (clean) socks to suck up rain water and squeeze it back out into a container or into your mouth directly.

Anyway, socks rule (lol), and are important for any emergency get-away kit.

And hey OceanStone, I know you are thinking a lot about this particluar storm, esepcially when you use your 'googly moogly' line. You know a lot of us will be tracking this thing. I hope it does the Stormpulse possibility, and turns SW, instead of NE in a few days.

It seems like there are a lot of systems that could affect this storm in the next few days, which makes it really tricky for forecasting.

Current Atlantic Info:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.

2. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by OceanStone


Wow the spaghetti model sure is crazy - I have a feeling this thread is about to get very active!


BTW thanks all for your postings and links in this thread. I come here often but don't always post. I have been thru several hurricanes so I know how important it is to be aware! Stay safe everyone!

Originally posted by lasertaglover

 

Anyway, socks rule (lol), and are important for any emergency get-away kit.

Ahhaha... good advice! I'm gonna get my few favorite sockies ready... my fluffy pink, white and green ones!!

This brightened my morning and gave me such a good chuckle... but in all seriousness, I've heard that if your feet are wet more then a few hours you could get trench foot.. (a condition named for the men at war in the trenches that died from this).... correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure I'm not....

And again.... really good advice!!

reply to post by crazydaisy
I edited again because I wanted to say something to crazydaisy... I've read so many of your posts... you are such a sweet person!

reply to post by OceanStone


It is real. And hurts like heck (ll). My unit was one of those that enjoyed doing road marches at least once a month, and my first road march was when we were based at Ft. Polk in LA. We did a small 20K road march, and it rained the entire time. I could not walk without extreme, horrible pain for two days. And yes, I did never forget to have a change of socks on any road march ever again.

I know this also sounds stupid, but wet feet can kill. This is true if you are trying to evacuate an area on foot (regardless of the reason), and you can not walk because of trench foot.

Without a good change of socks, extreme blisters can also be a problem. It is a good idea to keep a roll of blister moleskin in the baggy with your socks and a small knife or scissors to cut it with. I also keep a very small travel size container of baby powder in a seperate baggy inside of the sock bag. Plastic bags are always useful, baby powder is good for many type of rashes and other ailments (besides being great for bad feet), having an extra pocket knife or pair of scissors is always good in an emergency, and this way you have everything you need for foot care all in one place.

I am sorry if this is kinda off topic, but so many disaster preparation plans do not consider the most important asset when all else fails, your feet. You never know when it might be really important to get away quickly by foot.