Hurricane Watch 2010, page 21

Wilmington, NC Radar

Whoof! Very hairy. Flash flood warnings
Tornado and other warnings
(courtesy of Wunderground)

reply to post by worldwatcher

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Hope you and yours made it through ok. How bad was it locally for you?
We seemed to have missed it completely...not even any rain (in Tampa)...

The funnel of lows sweeping up the East coast really looks incredible.

And we do have a couple of areas that are trying to do something.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

This low that has a 60% chance of forming into something looks like it is going to swing north and away back out into the Atlantic.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

As of yesterday, we have Invest 98. Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Bahamas, Southern Florida might want to keep an eye on this area for further development.

The GFDL model, as well as two others support development into a hurricane.

Dr. Jeff Masters at Wunderground indicates that:

The disturbance has a modest and slowly increasing amount of intense thunderstorms, and is showing some spin. The disturbance is drifting northwest at less than 5 mph, and is under a moderate 15 knots of wind shear. Dry air in the Western Caribbean has been interfering with development, but 98L is now generating enough thunderstorms that the environment in the Western Caribbean is moistening, which will support further development.

www.spaghettimodels.com has graphics as the name implies, along with some great graphics from Orcasystems.

Invest 98 looks to be battling with a lot of dry air Water vapor - GOES east.

Invest 98 has now become TS Paula (link to spaghettimodels.com)

All I can say at this point is *glub* -- because the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Honduras, Nicaragua have had profound amounts of rainfall in the past week, and.....

current NHC tracking looks to be somewhat similar to Hurricane Michelle of October/November 2001.

As said in previous post........ Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida...... keep an eye on this one (in my non-met opinion)

Central America....... I am so sorry you are getting it again.

Time to keep alert once again - System looks fairly large.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
440 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

Source

TD 19 - GOES Floater Water Vapor Loop

Looks like the COC getting more centered under the convection. Models should be able to get a better handle on intensity and tracking now that it's a little better formed.

REALLY not liking the HWRF solution,, but it's young storm yet -- you can see the dry air it's battling in the water vapor loop above. Hopefully it'll fizzle.

Not to be a fearmonger -- Cayman Islands, Cancun/Yucatan, Cuba, Florida..... might want to keep an eye on this one. If you have a little symbolic 'no 'cane dance', now's the time to shake the rainstick.

Navy site now calling this TD19 Richard

Might seem premature to some, considering how the storm is getting sheared, however it's very close to many Caribbean nations and if it ramps up, response time will be short. I hope the NHC follows suit, as governments don't usually respond until storms are named; I hope they err on the side of safety and issue TS warnings/watches.

Current watches/warnings (from NHC/NOAA

Atlantic Floater One Rainbow IR loop

TOMAS is again a tropical storm, and models are in general agreement for intensification and passing over or near Haiti. Haiti is already gone through and going through so much. I really feel for them.

Tomas at www.spaghettimodels.com

reply to post by argentus

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I feel for Haiti also, I don't know how much more the people there can take. I hope they are spared from this storm but it doesn't look like they will be.

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