Mysterious U.S. Swine Flu Probe Widens as Mexico Finds Swine Flu *updated*

Good morning all

@BTS hope you're feeling better today.

Well of course our numbers in Illinois are up again today we now stand at 593 confirmed cases statewide, with 263 cases in Chicago, and 173 cases in cook county. So in actuality Cook county has a total of 441 cases, or 74.5 percent of all of Illinois's cases

I'm just wondering if the numbers that they are giving us here are so high, what are the real numbers

And while we're all focused on this flu they're busy trying to add even more taxes onto our cigarettes alcohol and soda


www.galesburg.com...


I'm off to take my grandson to the doc, guess it's his turn now.

Take care all

Edit because i forgot the link

[edit on 5/13/2009 by chise61]

reply to post by PrisonerOfSociety


Yes that is interesting...the wording there. I remember somewhere buried in this thread, a Govenment Standard that was published in the prestigious
Medical Journal, "The Chest" that outined the standards of evaluation for the sick, infirmed, and elderly. I am going to try to find that.

Seriously, when I saw that DOD Memorandum this morning I can see the writing on the wall!

reply to post by chise61


Thanks, I am better! Hope your day goes good with your grandson!



Along the lines of the wording that is in that DOD Memo from today...I had come across this and posted it back on page 23 or so of this thread...but it fits seemlessly!

Keep in mind this is what the hopsitals have on hand for determining who to treat and who not to treat during a "disaster". So not only would this determine who gets treatment for a flu pandemic, TPTB have also created this so that all hospitals would be on the same page during a pandemic flu outbreak!

This comes right out the The Chest, a Journal for Physicians.
We can thank the Department of Homeland Security, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health and Human Services.
DEFINITIVE CARE FOR THE CRITICALLY ILL DURING A DISASTER
Summary of Suggestions From the Task Force for Mass Critical Care Summit, January 26–27, 2007*

Document 4: Definitive Care for the Critically Ill During a Disaster: A Framework for Allocation of Scarce Resources in Mass Critical Care
This document provides guidance for standardized and fair means to distribute scarce critical care resources. Modern health-care experience caring for hundreds or thousands of critically ill and injured victims from civilian catastrophes is limited.6712 There are few randomized, controlled trials involving the subject matter of this Supplement, so this document is a consensus statement derived from senior-level, experienced, expert opinion rather than an evidence-based guideline.

Read all the article...

Exclusion Criteria:
Patients will meet exclusion criteria when they have a very high risk of death, little likelihood of long-term survival, and a correspondingly low likelihood of benefit from critical care resources.

www.chestjournal.org...
www.chestjournal.org...

This was done under the Bush Administration.

I'm loving the article burntheships, there are so many 'cryptic' clues to the verbiage, we could have a conspiracy field day

Page 6:

Decisions involving triage for care and the allocation of medical supplies also must take into account the values of personal rights and fairness to all. Critical mission requirements may require allocation of resources based on operational rather than medical risk

Regarding the bold quote: if TSHTF, dismiss triage medical care and look after their own. Those facilities must remain operational at all costs.

Page 3:

The MTF Commander shall designate an emergency management team to prepare and execute their facility's response plan.

Empower local/state designates for national Marshall law, go, go, go...

Page 3:

Public health laboratory confirmation of suspected cases should be pursued in accordance with current CDC and DoD guidance.

Hunt 'em down Commander; don't let them escape! Tag 'em, and bag 'em.

Page 3:

As this outbreak evolves, laboratory confirmation may not be required for every clinically suspected case.

So they accept a cut-off point where it's futile to even prove suspicions any more?!

I could go on, it's a great read

Now where did i put those plastic bags:



Edit: Added article link to text

[edit on 13-5-2009 by PrisonerOfSociety]

reply to post by fullmoonfairy


I was able to download it from the link.

I find it odd that Quarantinable Disease and Other Public Health Emergency
Notification Routing Requirements shows the path of reporting but when it gets to the final position it is redacted for national security I guess they used the black out on the document. Quarantinable Disease and Other Public Health Emergency
So when TSHTF whos in charge?

reply to post by blc4r4


Thanks! We were having a problem "internally" here at work. I made a copy, asap and gave it to my National Guard friend. Ironically, she had JUST recieved an email notification on her NG account concerning Pandemic Awareness!

She is going to take the PDF copy I made to her monthly guard drill this weekend and try to find out more. I'll keep you informed if anything important happens.

Thanks!
FMF

Computational quantitative projections for H1N1 flu dynamics in the United States

The following maps show the projected number of cases in the United States at the county level. The range of numbers represent the most likely outcome according to our model, a confidence interval of 90% (see below for explanation). This is a worst case scenario, in which no containment measures are taken to mitigate the spread. We used the confirmed cases as of May 6th for calibration and project from there on.

Because we adjust our simulations every 24–48 hours, our projections are subject to changes. At the moment our model projects a probable range of 6600–7900 by May 17, 2009 in United States.

Click on the link to view map........click on map to put in motion.....interesting

rocs.northwestern.edu...

Another interesting read......Swine Flu Exposed!!

www.scribd.com...

Some more interesting reading

March 2, Reuters – (National) Resistance to flu drug widespread in U.S. – study. Virtually all cases of the most common strain of flu circulating in the United States now resist the main drug used to treat it, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Monday. CDC researchers said 98 percent of all flu samples from the H1N1 strain were resistant to Roche AG’s Tamiflu, a pill that can both treat flu and prevent infection. Four patients infected with the resistant strain have died, including two children. This year, H1N1 is the most common strain of flu in the United States, although the flu season is a mild one so far, and still below the levels considered an epidemic.

uk.reuters.com...

UPDATE for this post: As pointed out by cosmicpixie and confirmed by the WHO is that this article is about the normal flu strain......But what drew my attention is that this made the DHS Daily Report list in March of 2009...........and thats where I draw my

www.scribd.com...



[edit on 13-5-2009 by Cloudsinthesky]

[edit on 13-5-2009 by Cloudsinthesky]

The so feared outbreake of the H1N1 virus in the southern hemisphere is just about to start. It's just a matter of time. See the latest news:

_Argentina: Casos sospechosos de gripe en Argentina aumentaron a 139 (139 suspected cases, according to Argentinian National News Agency "www.derf.com.ar") and 1 confirmed infection according to WHO

_Brazil: 8 confirmed cases according to WHO and 37 suspected cases (www.uol.com.br and www.saude.gov.br)

_New Zeland: Seven confirmed cases of Influenza A (H1N1) and 12 probable cases – unchanged since Saturday 9/5, according to NZ Ministry of Health.

_Australia: 1 infection confirmed and, surpreendently, I could't find anything about the number of suspected cases nationwide, only the info that are 15 suspected cases in the state of New South Wales (www.theage.com.au). There's clearly a black out on the subject in all australian media.

What's very intriguing is the delay to confirm the suspected cases by these countries Health Authorities. It seems they are purposedly being very very slow.

Swine Flu Smoking Gun? CDC was Combining Flu Viruses in 2004

But here’s the potential smoking gun, the facts that suggest a potential source of the pandemic could be CDC labs. And at the very least, this possibility deserves thoughtful examination and research. The University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) is hardly a place most Americans have heard about and, apparently, the Center’s web site has news the MSM isn’t familiar with, either. But information they published years ago has now taken on an urgent importance. CIDRAP, along with the Canadian newspaper Canadian Press (CP), revealed back in 2004 that the CDC was launching experiments designed to mix the H5N1 (avian) virus and human flu viruses. The goal was to find out how likely it was such a “reassortant” virus would emerge and just how dangerous it might be. Of course, it’s logical to wonder if they also worked with the addition of a swine flu virus, too.

Here’s some background from the five-year-old report by the University of Minnesota research center: “One of the worst fears of infectious disease experts is that the H5N1 avian influenza virus now circulating in parts of Asia will combine with a human-adapted flu virus to create a deadly new flu virus that could spread around the world. That could happen, scientists predict, if someone who is already infected with an ordinary flu virus contracts the avian virus at the same time. The avian virus has already caused at least 48 confirmed human illness cases in Asia, of which 35 have been fatal. The virus has shown little ability to spread from person to person, but the fear is that a hybrid could combine the killing power of the avian virus with the transmissibility of human flu viruses. Now, rather than waiting to see if nature spawns such a hybrid, US scientists are planning to try to breed one themselves — in the name of preparedness.”

And CDC officials actually confirmed the government had plans for the research. The CIDRAP News folks did a great job covering this important issue, which was apparently mostly ignored by the MSM back in 2004, and CIDRAP News wrote to the CDC for information. This e-mail produced an answer from CDC spokesman David Daigle who admitted the CDC was working on the project in two ways. “One is to infect cells in a laboratory tissue culture with H5N1 and human flu viruses at the same time and then watch to see if they mix. For the human virus, investigators will use A (H3N2), the strain that has caused most human flu cases in recent years,” the CIDRAP story stated. This co-infection approach was described as slow and labor-intensive. However, it was a way to produce a new virus that appeared to be closer to what develops in nature.

There was another, faster way CDC scientists could create the mix, too. Called reverse genetics, it involves piecing together a new virus with genes from the H5N1 and H3N2 viruses. Reverse genetics had already been used successfully to create H5N1 candidate vaccines in several laboratories, the CDC’s Daigle wrote. “Any viable viruses that emerge from these processes will be seeded into animals that are considered good models for testing how flu viruses behave in humans… The aim will be to observe whether the animals get sick and whether infected animals can infect others,” he revealed in his e-mail.

What’s more, the CP reported the CDC had already made hybrid viruses with H5N1 samples isolated from patients in Hong Kong in 1997, when there was the first outbreak of that virus, dubbed the “Hong Kong flu”. It is not clear if the results of that research were ever published. Back in 2004, Dr. Nancy Cox, then head of the CDC’s influenza branch, would tell the CP only: “Some gene combinations could be produced and others could not.” The CP’s report noted that the World Health Organization (WHO) had been “pleading” for laboratories to do this blending-of-viruses research. The reason? If successful, these flu mixes would back up WHO’s warnings about the possibility of a flu pandemic. In fact, Klaus Stohr, head of the WHO’s global flu program at the time, told the CP that if the experiments were successful in producing highly transmissible and pathogenic viruses, the agency would be even more worried — but if labs couldn’t create these mixed flu viruses, then the agency might have to ratchet down its level of concern.

The 2004 CIDRAP News report addressed the obvious risks of manufacturing viruses in labs that, if released, could potentially spark a pandemic. However, the CDC’s Daigle assured the Minnesota research group the virus melding would be done in a biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) laboratory. “We recognize that there is concern by some over this type of work. This concern may be heightened by reports of recent lab exposures in other lab facilities,” he told CIDRAP. “But CDC has an incredible record in lab safety and is taking very strict precautions.”

Five years later, we must ask more questions. Were those safety measures enough? Was the CDC creating or testing any of these virus mixes in or near Mexico? What other potentially deadly virus combinations has the US government created? Don’t US citizens, as taxpayers who funded these experiments, have a right to know? And for all the residents of planet earth faced with a potentially deadly global epidemic, isn’t it time for the truth?

All three references to this article listed below have been removed or the link is now broken......... Some of the information in the article I have seen in other articles........I will attempt to locate the missing references below......

For more information: “New flu is a genetic mix”, www.reuters.com...…

“CDC to mix avian, flu viruses”, www.cidrap.umn.edu...…

“CDC to conduct avian flu pandemic experiements”, www.ctv.ca...…

www.scribd.com...


[edit on 13-5-2009 by Cloudsinthesky]

reply to post by Cloudsinthesky


I think that article relates to "normal" flu, not the new flu. I listened to today's WHO conference and the speaker was asked about the comments going around stating swine flu was resistant to tamiflu and the other anti-viral they use -can't recall the name- and she explained that "normal" flu was more resistant but this new virus is "sensitive" to the anti virals in question and she also pointed out the confusion between normal flu/the new flu and tamiflu resistance issues......

reply to post by cosmicpixie


Actually I pulled that article off the Department of Homeland Security Daily Report dated March 4 2009.....that referenced the Reuters article.........

www.scribd.com...

If Tamiflu is for the "regular flu" and it is not working then why use it for the swine flu to combate the human strains of this virus? That is what I was getting to plus the fact that it made the attention of the DHS Daily Report...

Originally posted by cosmicpixie
reply to post by Cloudsinthesky

 

I think that article relates to "normal" flu, not the new flu. I listened to today's WHO conference and the speaker was asked about the comments going around stating swine flu was resistant to tamiflu and the other anti-viral they use -can't recall the name- and she explained that "normal" flu was more resistant but this new virus is "sensitive" to the anti virals in question and she also pointed out the confusion between normal flu/the new flu and tamiflu resistance issues......

I have come to the point that I do not trust what the CDC/WHO are saying.........Tamiflu is a money maker for those involved........I just have to go with what I hear on the streets and monitor what these agencies promote and hopefully make some sense with it.

From the recombinomics website. The entire article is at recombinomics

The presence of avian PB2 may offer a selective advantage over the summer, when seasonal flu falls to barely detectable levels. However, the swine H1N1 that moves south in the upcoming months will be growing under colder conditions, which may favor the acquisition of E627K though reassortment or recombination. This change could create a more virulent H1N1 in the fall in the northern hemisphere.

Thus, the swine H1N1 may be launching a two virus strategy. The H1N1 with avian PB2 will dominate in the northern hemisphere over the summer, while the H1N1 in the southern hemisphere will acquire E627K and establish dominance during the winter months.

Thus, the spread of H1N1 is in high gear, as WHO debates if a swine H1N1 is a swine H1N1 and if a pandemic at phase 6 is really at phase 6.

Swine H1N1 doesn't read WHO press releases.

It just gains transmission efficiencies via homologous recombination.

NIAID Influenza Research: 2009 Progress Report

B. Influenza in Individuals
Recommendations
1.
Increase understanding of influenza pathology and pathogenesis in humans
2.
Fully describe human cellular immune responses to influenza infection
3.
Describe innate and mucosal immune mechanisms in influenza
4.
Map genomics and proteomics of human responses to influenza viruses
5.
Strengthen infrastructure for clinical influenza research
Many fundamental aspects of human clinical and immune responses to influenza infection have not been fully described. These include innate and adaptive responses and the role they play in pathogenesis; host genetic factors that may affect susceptibility
to severe influenza outcomes; and the innate immune mechanisms that prevent or slow infection or, conversely, exacerbate illness.
Recent NIAID research has advanced basic scientific understanding of viral and host contributions to influenza disease. Several studies have examined the role of immune cells in protection against influenza infection across drifted strains. For example, one study found that B cells may be important to the development of cross-reactive immunity. Other studies have examined how immune responses contribute to severe disease outcomes and how host and virus factors contribute to secondary bacterial infection during severe influenza infection. A recent study, for example, showed that interferon gamma production during influenza infection may increase host susceptibility to secondary bacterial infection. Multiple approaches—including computer modeling, in vitro laboratory techniques, and clinical studies—have further characterized the immune response to influenza virus. For example, the CEIRS program has begun several new clinical research projects in influenza to examine immune responses and transmissibility of the virus among human populations. (For more information, see Appendix B, pages 17 – 21.)

Notice the last sentence "For example, the CEIRS program has begun several new clinical research projects in influenza to examine immune responses and transmissibility of the virus among human populations. "

Found this on Bloomberg.www.bloomberg.com...

A short Re-Gen has been "Cycled"

Jerusalem, Israel
1 probable case.
4 year old boy.
Source: Qatar News Agency
Date: 13 May 2009, 06:42 GMT

Vladivostok, Russia
1 probable case.
Female studying in Shanghai.
Source: Prima Media

US, Connecticut: State officials confirm five more cases of influenza A (H1N1) bringing state total to 38. #swineflu3 minutes ago from web

US, Texas: State officials confirm 440 cases of influenza A (H1N1) statewide. #swineflu25 minutes ago from web

US, Kansas: State health officials confirm five new pediatric cases of influenza A (H1N1)) bringing the state total to 28. #swineflu33 minutes ago from web

US, New York: Local officials report two confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1) in Erie County students; state total rises to 216. #swineflu33 minutes ago from web

US, New York: State health officials confirm 18 new cases of influenza A (H1N1); state total reaches 214. #swinefluabout 1 hour ago from web

US, New Jersey: State officials confirm three new influenza A (H1N1) cases in Burlington and Camden counties; state total reaches ten.about 3 hours ago from web

US, Georgia: CDC confirms total of eight cases of influenza A (H1N1) statewide. #swinefluabout 3 hours ago from web

US, Washington, DC: CDC confirms a total of nine cases of influenza A (H1N1). #swinefluabout 3 hours ago from web

US, New Hampshire: State public health officials confirm one new case of influenza A (H1N1) in seven-year-old; state total reaches 17.about 3 hours ago from web

US, Illinois: State officials confirm 593 cases of influenza A (H1N1) statewide. #swinefluabout 3 hours ago from web

US, Florida: State Officials Confirm 58 Cases of Influenza A (H1N1) Statewide #swinefluabout 4 hours ago from web

Oost Vlaanderen, Belgium: 1 confirmed caseSourceDutch) Influenza.be , French ( google translated) English ( google translated)Dat..about 3 hours ago from twitterfeed

Webb county, Texas, Usa: 2 confirmed casesSource: Texas Department of State HealthDat: 12 May 2009about 4 hours ago from twitterfeed

Upshur county, Texas, Usa: 1 confirmed caseSource: Texas Department of State HealthDate: 12 May 2009about 4 hours ago from twitterfeed

Nolan county, Texas, Usa: 1 confirmed caseSource: Texas Department of State HealthDate: 12 May 2009about 4 hours ago from twitterfeed

Kendall county, Texas, USA: 1 confirmed caseSource: Texas Department of State HealthDate: 12 May 2009about 4 hours ago from twitterfeed

Jefferson county, Texas, USA: 3 confirmed casesSource: Texas Department of State HealthDate: 12 May 2009about 4 hours ago from twitterfeed

Massachusetts: Eight New Influenza A (H1N1) Cases Confirmed; 115 Cases Total: Date: May 13, 2009 18:00 UTC Risk: Medium Multiple medi..about 2 hours ago from twitterfeed

Nord-Pas-de-Calais: One "Probable" Case Of Influenza A (H1N1) Reported: Date: May 13, 2009 18:00 UTC Risk: Medium Multiple sources re..about 2 hours ago from twitterfeed

Raja Permaisuri Bainun Hospital: 51 Year-Old Case Undergoing Investigation for Influenza A (H1N1); Trip to Thailand Noted: Date: May ..about 2 hours ago from twitterfeed

Georgia: Up to Eight Influenza A (H1N1) Cases Confirmed: Date: May 13, 2009 17:41 UTC Risk: Low The US Centers for Disease Control an..about 2 hours ago from twitterfeed

Papeete: Three "Strongly Suspected" Influenza A (H1N1) Cases: Date: May 13, 2009 17:02 UTC Risk: Medium Romandie News, a French-langu..about 4 hours ago from twitterfeed

Florida: State Officials Confirm 58 Cases of Influenza A (H1N1) Statewide: Date: May 13, 2009 16:55 UTC Risk: Medium Local media sour..about 4 hours ago from twitterfeed

Durango: One Additional Case of Influenza A (H1N1) Confirmed; Total Reaches Eight Confirmed Cases: Date: May 13, 2009 16:26 UTC Risk:..about 4 hours ago from twitterfeed

Queensland: Four Suspected Influenza A (H1N1) Cases Registered : Date: May 13, 2009 16:22 UTC Risk: Medium The Australian Government ..about 4 hours ago from twitterfeed

Ohio: Two New Cases of Influenza A (H1N1) Brings State Total to 11: Date: May 13, 2009 15:05 UTC Risk: Medium Local media sources and..about 5 hours ago from twitterfeed

Greenock: At Least Three Probable Cases of Influenza A (H1N1) Identified; Two Schools and One After School Facility Close for Seven Days:..about 5 hours ago from twitterfeed

Kalisz: One Suspected Case for Influenza A (H1N1) Admitted to Regional Hospital: Date: May 13, 2009 14:42 UTC Risk: Medium Nasemiasto..about 5 hours ago from twitterfeed

Mexico: 164 Additional Cases and Two Additional Fatal Cases of Influenza A (H1N1) Confirmed, Increasing Total to 2,446 Cases and 60 Death..about 5 hours ago from twitterfeed

Fatih: Korean Traveler Tests Negative for Influenza A (H1N1): Date: May 13, 2009 14:28 UTC Risk: Low Time Turk, a national news sourc..about 5 hours ago from twitterfeed

[edit on 5/13/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Swine flu has full pandemic potential: Research
Tuesday , May 12, 2009 at 1643 hrs IST
www.indianexpress.com...

London:

Swine flu that has triggered global health scare has "full pandemic potential" and is fatal in around 4 in 1,000 cases making this strain of influenza as lethal as the one found in the 1957 pandemic, research by British scientists reveals.

The first detailed analysis by researchers at London's Imperial College, found that the virus spreads easily from person to person infecting around one in three of those who come into contact with it.

Professor Neil Ferguson the author of the research said it was too early to say whether the virus will cause deaths on a massive scale, or prove little more lethal than normal seasonal flu.

"Our study shows that this virus is spreading just as we would expect for the early stages of a flu pandemic. So far, it has been following a very similar pattern to the flu pandemic in 1957, in terms of the proportion of people who are becoming infected and the percentage of potentially fatal cases that we are seeing", said Ferguson.

More at Link...

Mexico flu cases slowing, death toll could hit 100
www.reuters.com...

First case of H1N1 flu in Belgium confirmed
www.reuters.com...

Are You Prepared for a H1N1 (Swine) Flu Pandemic?
www.nurse.com...
(per lunieri)

[edit on 5/13/2009 by Hx3_1963]