The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

It seems the MSM is catching up on the Euro situation flagged by GBM, Hx_ et al over the past weeks:

Euro touches four-year low against dollar

Extract:

The euro has pulled back from a four-year low against the dollar, although fears over the strength of the eurozone economy remain.

The euro fell to $1.2237 in early trade on Monday, but then recovered to trade at $1.2377.

Traders fear that the austerity measures being put in place in many eurozone countries will hit growth...

...Despite the huge sums of money pledged in support for eurozone countries, severe measures are needed to cut budget deficits and debt.

John Kyriakopoulos, from the National Australia Bank in Sydney, said: "Concerns that severe fiscal austerity in the eurozone will crush growth in the region continues to weigh (on the euro)."

Low growth would also mean low interest rates for the 16-country currency bloc, meaning returns on holding the currency would be poor.

reply to post by pause4thought


P4T

I gladly join your Bear Den Club when it comes to EUR USD.

Looking fantastically ghoulish.

reply to post by marg6043


The taxable income is getting less and less?

How is this true on a longer term scale than 1 year?

I just do not see how this is possible.

At one point as well I would also like to see when this debt is due because I am not for 100% (as I am really no econ whiz) but it would seem to me that most of these figures are taken out of context.

I will be waiting for our friend RockPuck or RedHatty to clarify lol.

[edit on 17-5-2010 by GreenBicMan]

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Well I know and so do you that is a reason why states are running on deficits, meaning they are not meeting their financial commitments, that alone is a big red flag in my eyes.



[edit on 17-5-2010 by marg6043]

reply to post by marg6043


Yeah, but we will always have debt and deficit. This doesn't mean much to me personally.

I want to see the real numbers and when this debt is scheduled to be repaid. Anything else IMO is a waste of time.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


The Debt's not gonna be repaid, it's gonna be defaulted on. Probably through the devaluation of the currency via the printing press. 'That which cannot be repaid, will not.'

Then interest rates will rise and we will have OUR austerity, just like everyone else.

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


Not defaulted, but rescheduled.

Rinse and repeat.

reply to post by GreenBicMan

Yeah, Greece tried that. Didn't turn out so well.

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


It isn't pretty is it?

But Greece does/*did* enjoy their own little world of quasi socialism, that didn't work either.

BTW, what is up with copper.. down 6% +

finviz.com...

Yikes!

Sp500 coming back strong

finviz.com...

reply to post by GreenBicMan


It actually is quite perplexing, because the majority of US Income comes from businesses, not individuals. To have this large of a tax income loss can only signify one thing or two things: Unemployment is far more severe than we expect, or else, I should say, the levels of income are far worse than we expect especially in the middle class. Or, actually, more likely is that income in the middle class has been drastically reduced by the fact that new job creation is at far lower incomes. Former employees making $60k a year making $10/hr at Target.

Also, small business (where Uncle Sam gets most her money) are being severely impacted by lower than normal income. If people are tight on a budget, they won't shop the small businesses, they won't call the handiman, they will forgo a garden this year, and won't spend excess money at tourist destinations. They will redirect money to big-box stores like Walmart (which has seen growth throughout the economy) .. but diverting numerous tax sources into one big tax source actually drastically reduces tax income.

Also, big corporations are still being able to reduce tax liabilities through federal programs like hiring unemployed people, retaining workers, spending to build supplies etc. This all reduces tax liabilities, even where positive income growth is seen.

Then there is also the numerous new tax incentives on individuals. For instance, I bought a house this year and it made my tax liability 0 .. I end up getting a few grand back actually, plus reimbursement for education, and if I had kids, I'd get $2,500 per kid back too.

In all likelihood the reason for the much larger tax income from the Gov is all the reasons listed above, perhaps some others as well: Like increased cheating on taxes etc, be it personal or business.

Either way, it's only ever happened ... 4 times in our history I think, that we had a deficit in April.

reply to post by Rockpuck


I am sure multi-billion dollar corporations like GE coming out of 2009 paying no federal taxes may be part of the problem. Sure, GE netted about $10 billion profit worldwide, but the US components conveniently lost $400 million (wink wink nudge nudge).

It's good to be king!

www.reuters.com...

Euro rises from 4 year-low vs dollar; sentiment still down

As the euro began to rise, investors who had bet against the single currency were also forced to buy back euros in order to cut their losses in what is known as a "short-squeeze."

what is known as a "short-squeeze."

Here is more Propaganda on that euro zone is actually recovering.

reply to post by Agent_USA_Supporter


I actually partly agree with you here Agent X.

But there was a fast squeeze when the Euro broke above a KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE POINT.

finviz.com...

It's the 1.243 Range you see there

It has to be a fib retracement or a long term pivot point because EURUSD had been playing with it all day bouncing back and forth plus if you look at a volume by price chart all the volume was heaviest in that support/resistance zone. I can post one later but have too many programs going on.

But if you notice the wording they basically said this was a temp. short term thing. Which I agree with as well. But that is the battleground for now.

reply to post by Rockpuck


Interesting.

Where the hell did you find that information

My point about the less taxable income is that I find it very hard to believe we could ever have a slope that was negative year after year.

Just alone IMO because of the population growth year after year. I am not sure though if that has anything to do with anything but it was in my head at the time.

GBM I am looking for a rise to the 1160 area and for it to probably fail there. My faith in the market place took a nose dive with the thousand point drop in 20 minutes. Also GBM it doesn't matter when the 123 trillion dollars is due, they are still liabilities and thus will affect interest rates. The USA can never default on its debt...EVER. The debt must be paid back in dollars, and the government prints dollars. An alchemist won't run out of gold. However the markets will take note of future obligations. The governments around the world have come to realize that they really cannot safely fulfill all these liabilities to the people. But they can't cut the programs or they will be voted out because people don't want their benefits taken away. So that is why I believe something bad has to happen for all the welfare to be cut out because it just isn't sustainable and anyone who knows anything thing knows this.

[edit on 17-5-2010 by MrDarlingFace]

reply to post by MrDarlingFace


Who knows.

Maybe healthcare bill makes us 1.5% stronger workforce over the next "x" amount of years. Etc...

Actually, there are too many variables to account for that can spur new growth. A good example would be technology in 90's.

If you want to throw around numbers like 123 Trillion, calculate for me the expected gross sum of GDP over the next 30 years. Then we will talk.

People seem to forget we are a GDP monster, and you are correct as well we will never default or xyz. And if it comes down to it our military will make sure of it. That is the unfortunate truth.

Regards to SP500 Index, I have been too busy to look at a long term chart lately, I will soon. Today before the close definitely seemed like some big players either:

A) Saw an opportunity to take out a lot of retail stops and went for it

B) Saw a good intraday opportunity to dollar cost average when the SP500 was at less than fair value.

Either way, we need more time to figure out if this rally is over yet or not. IMO we have at least till 1300 on SP500 this year if not a percent or two more. I don't think we have seen the "shake-out" yet. Maybe this will come after a few good job reports or consumer confidence readings.

Time will tell.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


We have already seen that governments cannot support the populace in history and the present. How many more examples do you need? Yes there are too many variables to tell the future, but all these promises will be a huge drain. And the military can only be used so much. The military is mostly a jobs program now. Nobody in their right mind would actually think we need to spend 700 billion dollars a year on the military.

Also my previous target was around 1330 for the SPX, kind of doubting it right now but am not totally ruling it out either.

[edit on 17-5-2010 by MrDarlingFace]

*U.S. EMPIRE STATE FACTORY INDEX AT 19.1 IN MAY, FED SAYS
*U.S. MAY EMPIRE FACTORY INDEX COMPARES WITH FORECAST OF 30
*U.S. MAY EMPIRE FACTORY FUTURE INDEX AT 42.1 AFTER 55.7
*U.S. MAY EMPIRE FACTORY EMPLOYMENT INDEX AT 22.4 AFTER 20.3
*U.S. MAY EMPIRE PRICES-PAID INDEX AT 44.7 AFTER 41.8
*U.S. MAY EMPIRE FACTORY SHIPMENTS INDEX AT 11.3 VS 32.1
*U.S. MAY EMPIRE FACTORY NEW ORDERS INDEX AT 14.3 AFTER 29.5
*U.S. EMPIRE STATE FACTORY INDEX AT 19.1 IN MAY, FED SAYS

From Marketwatch:

The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index decelerated to 19.1 in May from 31.9 in April. The drop suggests the pace of growth slowed in May. New orders and shipments moved lower but remained in positive territory.

Yeah, way down from estimates.

Prices paid up, shipments collapsing (ONE THIRD of projected), new orders collapsing (HALF of projected) and future expectations decelerating.

Oops.

You have to love the opening of a major market the past few days...

Major Asian players come on line and EUR/GPB/CHF/ect all go ~poof~

Only winners USD & JPY

finviz.com...

[edit on 5/17/2010 by Hx3_1963]