The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Originally posted by Bordon81
reply to post by xxshadowfaxx

 

I no longer believe any of the doom and gloom anymore. Everyone here, vancouver, canada, is doing fantastic.

Market tops usually happen when investor sentiment is running high.

From a market psychology standpoint it is times like these when everyone is bullish and expecting new highs that nobody is left to buy in and drive the market higher.

Yesterday morning the Dow gaped down at the open for the first time in weeks. The Dow Sept futures have recently trading at a discount of more than 100 points lower than cash. They could be factoring in the expectation of higher interest rates but there may be more to it than that. The Fed may no longer be actively supporting the equity markets to the extent they had been. Who knows what kind of deals they made behind the scene with investment houses like Goldman Sachs to keep the indexes up through the worst part of the recession.

We may not have to wait till the fed comes out and announces an increase in the discount rate, to see a correction in stock prices. It may be time for another 500 point correction in the Dow like we have seen in the past to let the market breath.

The futures trade that way because of the way you calculate fair value.

The Sp 500 futures trade the same way.

This is how you calculate fair value in index futures



= cash (1+r (x/360)) - Dividends

x = days to expiration

r = interest rate

cash = cash value or the price you see on TV or finance.yahoo.com

So what you are implying is terribly inaccurate, and if that is how you view futures based on what you said above then you are mistaken.

reply to post by xxshadowfaxx


It's doing great? What? My father had to lower his house price by nearly half so he ended up selling at the same price he bought it... and it took 18 months to sell his house...

And it was downtown....

So I guess it depends on where you are selling.

But Canada is just heading for disaster on the house market just like the US.

Just wait till they raise interest rates and soon there will be hundreds of thousands under water.

www.abovetopsecret.com...
Put A Fork In Them (Greece)

www.abovetopsecret.com...
What they are saying now is what they said then

Great digging into some now infamous quotes after the 1929-30 bear market and the widespread view at the time that the worst was over because, of course, Mr. Market said so … erroneously as it turned out.

Originally posted by xxshadowfaxx
The housing market is doing great here. Everything is super expensive however, but that isn't stopping people from buying anything. They're selling out after a week in the market. The biggest problem is for the younger folks. Myself included. If you don't have a second income, chances are you can't afford to buy anything. The new HST coming to bc soon, is really going to screw things up for the young crowd. I don't know what I'm going to do when it comes to buying a house. But its hard enough to even find one, without a sold tag on it. I don't understand where people get their money.

Maybe you don't realize it, but you are saying EXACTLY the same things that everyone down here was saying before the housing bubble popped.

Now there's years worth of inventory and no one to buy it. So just wait, you'll have your chance to purchase at a good price, IF you have a job!

Study: 1.2 million households lost to recession

Since Richard Brown lost his job to the recession and his Boston home to foreclosure a year ago, he’s been working short-term consulting assignments until he gets back on his feet. In the meantime, he’s been “couch surfing.”

“I’ve lived with my brother, my cousin, my friend and my dad,” he said. “The IRS keeps calling me, asking me: ‘What’s your address?’ And I say, ‘What week is this?’”

Armed with college degree and an MBA, Brown, 49, built a solid resume over three decades as a corporate controller for several Fortune 500 companies, including W.R. Grace and Wal-Mart, before launching his own global consulting business with clients in Europe and Mexico. But when the Panic of 2008 sent clients scrambling, he was unable to keep up with a jump in his mortgage payments and lost his home to foreclosure.

Yep from what I read, lots of grown adults are moving back with their 80 years old parents...

But all is well right? Well maybe it is... since people will be closer together and band against the tyrans.

[edit on 8-4-2010 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by GreenBicMan

= cash (1+r (x/360)) - Dividends

This formula looks like it would describe a wasting option?

I'm talking about the forward months of YM the Dow Jones E mini.
The value of this is 10,884 in the June 2010 contract and 10,820 in the September 2010 contract. Later months are often higher in later month contracts not lower.

futures.tradingcharts.com...

Are we talking about the same thing?



[edit on 8-4-2010 by Bordon81]

Hmmm...

Vancouver homeless numbers up, but more people living in shelters
www.theprovince.com...

Homelessness is increasing in Vancouver, according to preliminary results of a new count.

Early results from a census taken in late March show there are 1,762 homeless in the city, up from 1,576 in 2008. At the same time, the number living on the street has been cut in half — from 811 in 2008, to 428 in 2010.

The number of sheltered homeless people in Vancouver is up from 765 in 2008 to 1,334 in 2010. The numbers show that more permanent social housing is urgently needed, according to Mayor Gregor Robertson.

With seven temporary provincially funded shelters due to close April 30, 500 people will be sent straight back to the street, he said.

[edit on 4/8/2010 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Bordon81


The June 2010 contract is the current contract that would be

YMM0

YMU0 is not available for trading yet. That would be the one that ends in Sept. At least I cannot see it with my software.


www.allstocks.com...

Or just go to the CME website - It is quite confusing from this guy's website someone should list it better. Anyway fair value on the SP500 if you want that is calculated in the manner that I displayed in the post above.

If you can show me a chart of YMU0 that is trading right now that would really surprise me.

Homeless has been a problem in vancouver for decades.

I have a job, and my business is booming, new clients calling everyday for yard work. So many calls I have to turn most of them down, as I am over worked. I just don't see a crash coming at all. My grandparents sold their house 6 months ago, for 1.8 million. Almost double what they paid to build it 20 years ago. It sold in 2 months, and there were other offers in the meantime. When I drive through town, looking at all the new condo's they have built, and new houses, there's tons of them being buit. And just about every single one of them says SOLD, in big red letters outside on the lawn. I looked into the prices, they are not cheap. Housing is doing good, very good. I'm sure the odd person will get a bad deal, but that is normal. Everyone i know is working, and no shortage of work, a year ago, it was a different story, some were laid off and had trouble finding work, but now, all that has changed, no one is complaining, and everyone is saying how good the economy is doing here. The worst part of the economy is the schools, they've had to close a couple, 3 I think. Other than that, its nothing worth mentioning doom and gloomwise.

Yeah the economy is good in Canada... but I still think the housing market being inflated that much will lead to a collapse once the interest rates goes up and thousands are underwater.

Not to mention 50% of Canada's GDP is exportation to the US. When the US finally collapse, 80% if not all of those exportations will have to be exported elsewhere, making them more costly to ship...

Canada will have a hard time exporting to the US because : they will have huge debts, the IMF will take over their economy and the US dollar will be toilet paper.

Since the Canadian dollar became stronger than the US dollar a few days ago, the Canadian dollar will ALWAYS BE STRONGER than the US dollar... unless the US does a real revolution and kick out the elite and clean the mess... otherwise, the canadian dollar will rule.

Other news...
As Greek Bond Rates Soar, Bankruptcy Looms

As interest rates on Greek debt spiral upward again, the question facing Europe is no longer whether Athens has the political will to cut spending and raise taxes to curb its gaping budget deficit, but whether Greece will run out of money before it gets the chance to do so.

With the rate on 10-year Greek bonds reaching as high as 7.5 percent on Thursday, up from 6.5 just three days ago, the cost of insuring against a Greek default hit a record high.

The message from the market could not be clearer: artfully worded communiqués from Brussels will no longer suffice. To avoid bankruptcy, analysts said, Greece needs a bailout from Europe, and fast.

“This is no longer about liquidity; it’s a solvency issue,” said Stephen Jen, a former economist at the International Monetary Fund who is now a strategist at BlueGold Capital Management in London.

But with European officials consumed with a debate over whether loans to Greece should be offered at rates consistent with a typical I.M.F. bailout or punitive ones closer to current market levels, the risk is that while Brussels fiddles, Greece is burning.

Yes it is burning, there were bank runs yesterday of up to 10 billions euros...

reply to post by GreenBicMan


The discount to cash is not as large in the S&P mini but the front month is still over $5 dollars cheaper than cash.

futures.tradingcharts.com...

And the September contract continues the trend another $5 cheaper than June.

futures.tradingcharts.com...

The September Dow mini is only being thinly traded at this point but is running at a $100 discount to cash.

futures.tradingcharts.com...

As your article states:

These contracts, because they are a "bet" on where the S&P will be at a point in the future, almost always trade at a price higher than where the S&P 500 index is at the same time, because most people assume stocks will rise. On rare occasions, the futures will trade below the actual S&P 500

That was my point.

The markets move in waves with lots of intermediate tops and bottoms. On the "rare occasions" when the futures are trading at a discount to cash, that can be an indicator that the wave is cresting. Often times later on as the contract month approaches its expiry date it becomes worthless as sea foam rolling up on a sandy beach.



[edit on 9-4-2010 by Bordon81]

What is a bank run,if New Zealand is in dire trouble,would bank runs be common?

reply to post by Mr_Alex


When large numbers of people lose confidence in a bank they all rush to pull their money out at the same time. In reality banks only keep a fraction of their deposits in reserve — meaning they can't pay up.

It can happen anywhere.

Check out the wiki article.

reply to post by xxshadowfaxx


Would this be Vancouver Canada, or Vancouver WA?

Originally posted by Mr_Alex
What is a bank run,if New Zealand is in dire trouble,would bank runs be common?

Most countries, the citizens have very low deposits in banks as liquid cash.. usually is you amass a large quantity of cash, you invest in various other vehicles. So a modern bank run would be made by businesses, since they deposit the largest by far amount of cash.. or certain funds like Money Market accounts..

Basically.. what I am tryin to get it.. there will never be a run on the banks like we see in the old days. They will happen instantly, through the internet, and will end in a matter of hours.

The last bank run occurred in October of 2008, an Electronic Run on the Banks as the Treasury called it.. they admit had they not stopped it in time the entire world economy would have collapsed in a matter of hours.

The people wouldn't even of had banks to go to.. by the time they realized what happened, their money wouldn't be worth anything anyways.

reply to post by xxshadowfaxx


You know that, the great America market bubble was created when people bought into properties that by income median they could not afford thanks to the deceiving practices of banking institutions, see it took America about 15 years from the time the bubble was created to bursting. . .

In the news front,

Bernanke: Nation Must Take on Unsustainable Fiscal Course

Yes I know, taxes most be raised, but that should not surprise us, after all, that is what will pay for our newest government monster, the great America Bailout for the private health insurance businesses, I mean the HCR.

In a rare foray into politics, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking at the Dallas Regional Chamber Wednesday, told the audience that America’s fiscal course is unsustainable and would force lawmakers to either raise taxes, slash spending or implement a combination of both, according to The New York Times.

“The arithmetic is, unfortunately, quite clear,” Bernanke said, according to The Times. “To avoid large and unsustainable budget deficits, the nation will ultimately have to choose among higher taxes, modifications to entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, less spending on everything else from education to defense, or some combination of the above. These choices are difficult, and it always seems easier to put them off — until the day they cannot be put off any more.”

America’s budget deficit in the 2009 fiscal year reached $1.4 trillion and is expected to top $1.6 trillion in the current fiscal year. The national debt is expected to swell to $13.8 trillion by the end of the year. As millions and millions of Baby Boomers retire and begin collecting Social Security and Medicare benefits, the national debt will only grow.

www.economyincrisis.org...

reply to post by marg6043


So, basically, America is in same situation as Greece... Will there be riots?
I know, it immediately crosses my mind - Goldman Sucks

reply to post by DangerDeath


Well, propaganda in the US works its magic to create a false sense that the government and those in corporate echelons working within our markets are doing a great job fixing the nations economy.

People has been buying into that false sense of created stability.

It will not be riots, actually people will be so dumbfounded that they will still not believe that our nations economy is such a ponzi scheme at the expenses of tax payer dollars, they will just blame it on somebody else like China.

And this why the insurance companies got their bailout

America’s budget deficit in the 2009 fiscal year reached $1.4 trillion and is expected to top $1.6 trillion in the current fiscal year. The national debt is expected to swell to $13.8 trillion by the end of the year. As millions and millions of Baby Boomers retire and begin collecting Social Security and Medicare benefits, the national debt will only grow.

The big corporate and government lie, see when the insurance companies did their projections for the next 10 years they forecasted that the baby boomer's will eat into their profits as they will be aging, what to dot, what to do, well they lobbied very well into Obamas campaign and then the democratic congress to give them a self deserved bailout at the expenses of the tax payer in the nation, and they go it.