The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Suppose there is an announcement about some 'additional stimulus' package being worked on in Washington, do you think we can get a dead-cat bounce tomorrow?

I mean, what could stop the free-fall?

Anybody to predict the Dow tomorrow? I am going to predict that another pump/dump attempt will be orchestrated and the market will hold steady amidst some "we have a plan but we cannot tell you until next week" type of news.

With that said, I'm going WAY far out on a ledge and will predict a "kissing your sister" type of day. Dow close +/- 50 points.

buuut... it may be worth brushing up on the NYSE circuit breakers just in case.

Wall St needs to man up and tear off the band-aid. The automakers too... sorry, your business model SUCKED the past TWO DECADES + so you FAIL.



Is it me, or are the asia markets down about 1.5% out the gate??

[edit on 5-3-2009 by nydsdan]

[edit on 5-3-2009 by nydsdan]

Show this to the class and ask them what it would mean if FDIC goes under. Maybe then we could get some protests?


www.federalreserve.gov...

also, maybe FEMA knows more about the summer of discontent than we previously thought...and is making big prep...take a look. Fact not fiction!

www.abovetopsecret.com...'



[edit to fix link]

[edit on 5-3-2009 by burntheships]

reply to post by nydsdan


It's been a while since we've halted trading. If falls like this continue that may become possible. If they do this it will destroy confidence and continue the downward spiral. They could have done this a couple of times already in the last 5 or 6 days. Trying to establish an artificial floor. But that's a halts do, and like all other artificial instruments, they blow up in your face.

NZSE 50 2,455.60 7:09PM ET -35.80 (-1.44%)
Nikkei 225 7,247.75 7:09PM ET -185.74 (-2.50%)
Seoul Composite 1,040.77 7:10PM ET -17.41 (-1.65%)

...and the beatdown goes on...da da da da da...and the beatdown goes on...



[edit on 3/5/2009 by Hx3_1963]

I just wanted to chime in here and say:

[I lOVE YOU GUYS!


You keep me up to the minute better than any news ticker there is! You know where I went to when I saw the DOW at 6664 today? HERE! Did I go to YAHOO Finance? NOOOO Did I go to MSNBC? NOOOOO I came here and you guys delivered! Thanks!

reply to post by projectvxn


There is a difference between knowing economic principles.. and comprehending the way the economy is actually working.

My experience.. most college economic professors understand the fundamentals pre 2000, and cannot comprehend the economy post 9/11. We are in uncharted waters, the economy is working by completely different rules.. and the 60 year old economic talking heads don't seem to understand.

Stimulus Cash to Spur Inflation, Commodity Rally: Chart of Day

By Millie Munshi

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. government plans to spend more than $11.6 trillion to revive the economy are going to accelerate the pace of inflation and send raw-material prices surging, said Michael Pento, the chief economist at Delta Global Advisors who correctly predicted last year’s commodity collapse.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows expectations for U.S. inflation during the past two years have anticipated changes in commodity prices measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index. In May, the Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumers’ expectations for five-year inflation climbed to the highest since 1995, and by July, the CRB index had surged to a record.

Inflation expectations tumbled in the second half of last year, and by December had reached the lowest since September 2002. During that period, the CRB had its biggest six-month decline since the index was created in the 1950s. Expectations for inflation have since rebounded, signaling commodities will climb, Pento said.

“The government has created a massive increase in the monetary base, and it means we are entering a massive inflation cycle,” Pento said in a telephone interview from Holmdel, New Jersey. “Inflation will be intractable. All of these commodities will start to act as an alternative to currency and start to pick up. Gold should be the primary investment, and energy and base metals should be secondary.”

Gold may jump as much as 54 percent to between $1,250 and $1,400 an ounce by late 2009 or early 2010, Pento said. Copper will surge 77 percent to $3 a pound, he said.

HG COPPER
May09 USCF USX 05/27 164.85 03/05 19:04 -0.50 164.20 164.85 163.60


_______________

100 OZ GOLD
Apr09 USCF USD 04/28 931.50 03/05 19:04 +3.70 934.20 934.30 931.10

reply to post by uplander
Star 4 U!

The thing about most financial sites is, they just don't dig deep enough and/or post...dig through ALL the headlines/news and link them to the current market trends/activity...hard to make a informed choice/decision when yer only gettin' half the story...we TRY to give you...(bless his soul...Paul Harvey)..."The Rest of the Story..."




[edit on 3/5/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Rockpuck


That is correct. Keynesian econ is fine if you assume unlimited growth. The minute you factor in the whole part about there being only so many consumer markets on Earth... well, it starts to fall apart due to its inherent unsustainability. Now, it could continue to function, but gov't realized it could "prevent" recessions though manipulation and regulation. That is great politics, but terrible economics. Instead of "preventing" recessions when bubbles burst, you just push them off (and compound them).

And I don't know squat about econ!

It is like we are in a hot air balloon. We start running out of fuel so we start losing altitude. Instead of letting the balloon come down so we can refuel and go back up later, we decided to start burning the basket, the ballasts, the rope... next thing you know, we are at 14,000ft and have nothing left to burn.

Damn, I wish I took econ in college instead of something useless like Computer Science.

WOW! Nikkei 225 7,190.00 -220.00 -2.97%

reply to post by projectvxn


We all know that eventually inflation will be back.. my biggest fear is that prices will once again increase at staggering rates, seeing 10+% inflation on consumer products, energy, health care and foods..

But not seeing inflation of the wages. Granted, with inflation will possibly come jobs, the problem is .. if inflation is carried out recklessly .. it could breed disaster.

Imagine we see 2001-2008 level inflation for 2009-2010 .. we are strapped, people are pulling back spending.. and if the prices of goods begins to increase dramatically.. it could actually spark a more severe deflationary spiral, as average consumers end up underwater from the rising cost of living.

It's playing with fire. I don't believe the government is competent to pull it off quite honestly.

reply to post by Rockpuck

. and if the prices of goods begins to increase dramatically.. it could actually spark a more severe deflationary spiral, as average consumers end up underwater from the rising cost of living.

You just described inflation. This kind of thing would put the brakes on those who would buy our debt. This would result in a huge influx of USD as foreign reserves send it right back. They will print to cover their end, but this is why they've been buying HUGE reserves of gold and BEGGING China to open up it's financial sector for those seeking safety from the dollar. The world will have a new reserve currency, and it will destroy our dollar. It may not happen tomorrow, but this is certainly in the cards.

NZSE 50 2,457.803 7:31PM ET -33.598 (-1.35%)
Nikkei 225 7,208.65 7:32PM ET -224.84 (-3.02%)
Seoul Composite 1,046.83 7:33PM ET -11.35 (-1.07%)

Lions & Tigers & Bears...OH MY...
I'll get you my pretty!!!


Gold $934.48 now...

multimedia-mirage.redirectme.net...

[edit on 3/5/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
NZSE 50 2,455.60 7:09PM ET -35.80 (-1.44%)
Nikkei 225 7,247.75 7:09PM ET -185.74 (-2.50%)
Seoul Composite 1,040.77 7:10PM ET -17.41 (-1.65%)

...and the beatdown goes on...da da da da da...and the beatdown goes on...

[edit on 3/5/2009 by Hx3_1963]

I have been following this thread since it's inception and want to thank you for the education. I am not into stocks, but feel I am watching history, and gaining some real knowledge.

Also getting real acquainted with my refresh button.

Whenever I refresh the Yahoo DOW chart however, the song in my head goes: burn baby burn....disco inferno....burn baby burn...
I can't seem to stop it.

Hx3_1963..if you are ever in Canada, look me up and I'll set you up with some real beer

Thanks to all who are informing and teaching.

WOW some of the rats won't even get on this sinking ship

Mar 5, 7:56 PM EST

Treasury secretary's choice for deputy withdraws

By DANIEL WAGNER
AP Business Writer


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The person Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wanted as his chief deputy withdrew from consideration Thursday, dealing a setback to the agency as it struggles to address the worst financial crisis in decades.

Annette Nazareth, a former senior staffer and commissioner with the Securities and Exchange Commission, made "a personal decision" to withdraw from the process, according to a person familiar with her decision.

The decision followed more than a month of intense scrutiny of her taxes and multiple interviews. No tax problems or other issues arose during Nazareth's vetting, said the person, who requested anonymity because Geithner's choice of Nazareth was never announced officially.

"She did put a great deal of consideration into the potential of taking the position, and she concluded that she really enjoys what she's doing now," this person said.

Though popular in policy circles, Nazareth has drawn criticism for her role in creating what some considered to be lax oversight of the banking industry.

source

Lax oversight of the banking industry - that HAS to be the understatement of the evening

And another reason not to quit drinking

The U.S. dollar may face increased selling pressures over the next 24 hours of trading as economists forecast non-farm payrolls to drop 650K in February, which would be the biggest contraction in employment since 1949, while the jobless rate is expected to reach a 25-year high of 7.9% during the same period as firms continue to slash their labor force in an effort to reduce costs.

Payrolls in the U.S. fell 598K in January, which was the biggest monthly decline since 1974, and raised the annual rate of unemployment to a 16-year high of 7.6% from 7.2% in the previous month. As fears of a deepening recession intensify, firms are likely to cutback on production and employment in an effort to reduce costs, and the labor market is expected to weaken further throughout 2009 as the world’s largest economy faces its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

source

And why don't they outlaw CDS already - they are one of the primary causes of all this mess (along with MBS)

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Amusement-park operator Six Flags Inc. and automaker Ford Motor Co. may be pushed toward bankruptcy by bondholders trying to profit from credit-default swaps that protect against losses on their high-yield debt.

By employing a so-called negative-basis trade, investors could buy Six Flags bonds at 20.5 cents on the dollar and credit- default swaps at 71 cents. If the New York-based chain defaults, the creditors would receive the face value of the debt, minus costs. In a Feb. 27 note, Citigroup Inc.’s high-yield strategists put that profit at 6 percentage points, or $600,000 on a $10 million purchase.

Investors who bet on the collapse of a company are pitting themselves against traditional debt holders at a time when Moody’s Investors Service projects defaults will more than triple this year to the worst level since the Great Depression. The clash may stall restructuring efforts to prevent bankruptcies, as basis traders may be less inclined to participate in distressed debt exchanges, said Matthew Eagan, an investment manager at Boston-based Loomis Sayles & Co., with $7 billion in high-yield assets.

“Before, you really had to worry mostly about where you were in the” company’s capital structure, he said. “Now, you have to consider the possibility that you might have this large holder of CDS incentivized to see it go into bankruptcy. It’s something that’s going to come up more and more.”

Much more at Full Article

[edit on 3/5/09 by redhatty]

reply to post by redhatty


I guess she is even smart enough to realize that throwing money into a black hole and watching it gobble it all up is not 'policy'.

That is pretty bad, even if she did decide to remain signed up I don't think the market would fall any faster, we are starting to see consistent losses of +-300 points a day.

Doesn't look like the foreign markets are fairing much better either.

reply to post by tribewilder
Star 4 U!

Beer is a good thing!!! (got 1 right now!)


I'm trying as hard as is Borgly? possible to cover EVERY aspect of this!!!

Sleep is irrelevent...

This is only possible through the efforts of pause4thought (OP of this thread) and everyone who shares a lust for knowledge...

P4T
red
stander
nyd
vxn
rockpuck
ect
ect

I mostly channel data to this thread...I'm out of actual risk at this point...as I hope you are also!!!

Any relevent info I find, I cross-thread with...
2009 Depression Validated
www.abovetopsecret.com...

My only real motivation at this point is to keep the masses, (that's U!), informed, so they/you, can decide/plan for yourselfs/familys/futures...

...as long as this is possible...I WILL continue...resistance is futile...and if for some reason this becomes impossible thru this outlet...I'll move it to MY site...Qu'Plaugh!!!

Q6600 with 3GB of RAM...1.25TB of HD..makes for a nice server...just need to upgrade bandwidth... multimedia-mirage.redirectme.net...






Edit: Always backtrack/up scroll to check for missed updates!!! I do that alot LoL...

NZSE 50 2,461.44 8:05PM ET -29.96 (-1.20%)
Nikkei 225 7,238.80 8:05PM ET -194.69 (-2.62%)
Straits Times 1,499.27 8:11PM ET -19.37 (-1.28%)
Seoul Composite 1,044.93 8:07PM ET -13.25 (-1.25%)
Taiwan Weighted 4,615.66 8:07PM ET -21.54 (-0.46%)

Gold $933.57

Right now we're in the midst of the 1.5 lost decade...+ whatever it takes to climb back to the high...14K+...

24+% loss 2009 to date...
All indexes are pegged to summer/fall of '96 as of now...


[edit on 3/5/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Off the wires, no link.
"DJ reports GE Capital credit default swaps worsen even as GE released a statement emphasizing its strong cash position.
The CDS are most recently quoted at 17.5 points up front, from 16.5 points up front earlier today, according to Phoenix Partners Group.
That means investors must pay $1.75 mln up front, plus a $500,000 annual fee, to protect $10 mln of GECC senior bonds against default for five years." That means the first year cost is $1.75 + $500k, or $2.25 million.
That's 22.5% first year cost to insure $10 million against default!
This means that the market is saying that the odds of GE going bankrupt within the next twelve months is greater than one in five, and that assumes zero recovery.
If the bonds would recover more than 80% in the event of a default then it is implying more than a 100% risk of default, which is obviously impossible. This is occurring despite GE's CFO appearing this morning on CNBC making the case quite clearly that there is no risk of default under any materially possible scenario.
In other words, his assertion is that the odds of default are zero. One of two things must be true:
1. GE's CFO is lying and must be indicted for doing so.
2. This so-called "market segment" (CDS) has become so ridiculously overlevered, unsupervised and able to cause failures that it is now within days or even hours of CAUSING GE to fail - not due to GE's own internal problems, but due to positive feedback that the CDS market is capable of and is generating on the initiative and as a consequence of the action of participants in that market.
Either way a major change needs to occur right here and now, lest we find ourselves with no pensions, no Social Security, no Medicare, no annuities and no government.

THIS CAN NO LONGER BE DELAYED OR TOYED AROUND WITH; WHEN "THE BEZZLE" REACHES THE POINT THAT IT STARTS DESTROYING THE NATIONAL CORPORATE INDUSTRIAL GIANTS THAT MAKE UP OUR ESSENTIAL INFRASTRUCTURE, MILITARY AND COMMERCIAL ENTERPRISES THROUGH NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN IT IS A NATIONAL SECURITY EMERGENCY AND MUST BE DEALT WITH IMMEDIATELY.

source


This is as per Karl Denninger...does NOT sound good!

Well I may need to change my moniker to Black Hatty, since I seem to only deliver doom and gloom, but...

Dollar watch, 3/5/09:
Agency bonds, MBS, and "other pledged assets" now total $439.434B of collateral against the $860.470B of collateralized FRNs.

Today we passed the threshold where U.S. Treasuries, backed by the full faith and credit of the United States of America, make up LESS THAN 50% of what backs the buck in your wallet. The other (more than) half is FNM paper, the foreclosed house down the street, your buddy's underwater mortgage, and who knows what else (other pledged assets).

As late as December 2007, NOTHING served as collateral against the FRN except for Treasury Notes, Bills, and Bonds, and a tiny percentage of residual gold and "special drawing rights certificates.

FRB H41 release - scroll to bottom

Hx3 - I'm coming to your house to "commandeer" your big monitor
Linkie to YOUR site???

[edit on 3/5/09 by redhatty]

reply to post by redhatty
I also wonder how many meetings/conferences/discussions/months it will take for the CDS/CDO option to be addressed...

No way "they" want to just give it all back...


MSM coverage at 6 seems to have lead with todays news at least...now CNBC is injecting the fear-monger angle...great...

looks like "general motors' will succum to the inevitable "B" word ,even after major cash injections!!!!