The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

One of our friends on ATS (questioningall) managed to score an exclusive interview with Gerald Celente. You can read it here.

The unemployment rate change still hasn't slowed down. Maybe next month...

Tyler Cowen offers some strategies for keeping your job. In short: like most other things, you aren't worth as much as you were in 2007. As such, you should be prepared to work for a lower wage, per supply and demand.

[edit on 8-5-2009 by theWCH]

reply to post by audas


I love the part of the interview where he says that Obama has three or four months before he is - just like Bush - the most hated man in the US. I don't buy it unless all the Obamaphiles suddenly wake up to the fact that the new boss is the same as the ol' boss.

YES it's true, ONLY 539,000 jobs where lost last month!!!

YAY!!

It's also TRUE that the US Government was by far the largest hiring force in the country last month! ....

In fact... did you know that JUST LAST MONTH .... the US Census Dept hired 140,000 Americans, and will hire a total of 1.4 MILLION to prepare to count us civilians.

...hmm

So take away 140,000 jobs from the Census dept and we get?

679,000 JOBS WHERE ACTUALLY LOST LAST NIGHT, SETTING A BRAND SPANKING NEW RECORD IN POST GREAT DEPRESSION MONTHLY JOB LOSSES!!!!

But that number was drastically diminished by the Census adding 140k jobs to the Gov. payroll.....

Read between the lines. No matter how much the Messiah tells you, or Crooken Timmy, or Big Bank Ben.... the Economy is in trouble. It's getting worse. And it's actually accelerating. Keep your money safe, don't spend it all at Wal Mart and "American" car lots just yet folks. It's a Hurricane of bad news, but since we are in the Eye of the Storm, you would think it's just another bright sunny day with storm clouds in the past. Really, the worst is yet to come!

**in writing this the Bloomberg article about the 140,000 census jobs has been taken down, replaced by a much altered version..

Census website discussing 140k workers

Chicago Tribune

Taking a closer look at the broader data, it looks like the unemployment rate change has slowed down. The U-6 slowed from a normal increase of ~.9 percentage points (seasonally adjusted) to a mere .2 percentage point increase. Meanwhile, the the SGS unemployment chart seems to show the curve starting to level off.

I wonder how much of this is due to the census?

I also wonder if the U-3 looks worse than it otherwise would due to the extensions in unemployment benefits?

[edit on 8-5-2009 by theWCH]

Originally posted by theWCH
Taking a closer look at the broader data, it looks like the unemployment rate change has slowed down. The U-6 slowed from a normal increase of ~.9 percentage points (seasonally adjusted) to a mere .2 percentage point increase. Meanwhile, the the SGS unemployment chart seems to show the curve starting to level off.

I wonder how much of this is due to the census?

I also wonder if the U-3 looks worse than it otherwise would due to the extensions in unemployment benefits?

[edit on 8-5-2009 by theWCH]

The markets really should be up 5% right now. The problem is, people are wary of revisions (last month they revised the loss up to 700,000) and also did you notice the largest employer? The government. Who would have thought...


online.wsj.com...

Royal Bank of Scotland said this morning that investment banking revenue from banks isn't sustainable and that credit will continue to deteriorate for the rest of the year and through early 2010.

They are up 20% on this news.

The reality of jobs, beside the government "claiming creation of jobs that happens to be temporary jobs".

Still unemployment is at a 25 year high and climbing to 8.9 percent, we know hat this figure is sugar coated.

Since the nation went into recession we have lost actually over 5 million jobs, add the illegal force and we may actually come out with 7 million.

A report published by the Economic Policy Institute, however, disputes that assumption, pointing out that the economy needs to create seven million jobs to return to pre-recession employment levels.

The study shows that while the unemployment rate may have been higher 15 months into the 1981 recession - 10.1 percent - this recession has seen the unemployment rate increase more rapidly than any previous recession. From December 2007 to March 2009, the unemployment rate rose 3.6 percent. Conversely, through 15 months of recession in 1981, the unemployment rate rose only 3.2 percent.

In that 15 months, the economy has shed a total of 5.1 million jobs. Simply to keep up with population growth, the U.S. economy needs to create roughly 127,000 jobs each month. That means that over the course of the last 15 months, the U.S. economy should have created 1.9 million jobs. Therefore, the U.S. economy is approximately 7 million jobs short of where it should be.

Yes this time around things are worst than in previous recessions, actually we are on a depression right now.

But don't tell that to the government and the morons, I mean the geniuses on Obama, financial board, because with all the money been squandered this will be unacceptable.

Also something that they are not telling, the work hours has been steadily reduced.

Not only that, but even those that are still employed are finding that their hours are being slashed as companies scurry to find cost-cutting measures. This recession has also seen the greatest decrease in aggregate work hours of any recession of the past 50 years. As of April, aggregate work hours have fallen a total of 6.4 percent. In that same time over the 1981 recession, aggregate work hours fell just 5.7 percent.

That has left a total of 24.4 million Americans either underemployed or unemployed – meaning that one in six Americans are working less than they would prefer to be.

So in other words those that are still working are working less hours and making less money.

www.epi.org...:14:00:07Z 

Nice reality check people.

RBS being up 18% is ridiculous. They had a loss of 1.3 billions!

Is Fannie Mae up too after a 23.2 billions loss for Q1 2009?

This is RIDICULOUS.

Stop proping up the markets for god sake.

And yeah the ``Obama's jobs`` are the census jobs placing GPS at every house...

Medicare will crush the whole thing. It will cost 34 TRILLION $$ at it's current form. And let's not forget the now 14 trillion ++ in bank ``bailout`` which is more like theft.

Pretty soon the government will only be able to pay for 2 things: interest on foreign debt and medicare and probably the last discretionary spending will be on the military/police state.

[edit on 8-5-2009 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by Vitchilo


You forgot AIG lost of tarp money over 60 billion dollars alone, hey but everything is Better than expected.

It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood...La La La...

DXY 82.52 ... tanking ... :bnghd:

TNX hit a high of 33.87 ... now just A MERE 32.93 ...

better than expected!

~Shazam~

Global Crisis ‘Vastly Worse’ Than 1930s, Taleb Says (Update1)
May 7
www.bloomberg.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...



[edit on 5/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by marg6043
. . . everything is Better than expected.

That's right. All the banks could have needed additional $585.5 trillion to operate safely, BUT. . . only a half of them needed teeth cleaning done. The price? A ridiculously low $75 billion! That's worth of a rally, ain't it?
What do say, marg?

Financials cos rally following results of government's stress test, which showed 10 of 19 banks will require additional capital of $75 bln.

DJI 8574.65 +164.80‎ (1.96%‎)

Oh, the banks actually needed only $74.65 billion, not $75 billion!
marg, do you feel like dancing too?

And what else is new?

Decline in April payrolls better than expected (-539K vs -600K consensus)

Aha. The banks were not the only contributors to the rally.

Careful, guys. Just don't overheat the economy.

DIJA up 2%... TOTALLY RIDICULOUS.

Anyway.

California is in trouble again...

Looming state cash crisis seen by California analyst

In a report titled "California's Cash Flow Crisis," the Legislative Analyst's Office said the state might need to borrow anywhere from $10 billion to $23 billion to pay its day-to-day bills in the first few months of the fiscal year that starts July 1.

California... Everything is fine.

reply to post by Vitchilo
Right...

Get in line behind some banks/ect

Where in God's green earth are ALL these entity's going to come up with all this capitol?!?

Someones hoarding something... *shrugs*

reply to post by stander


I am dancing alright,



Remember Mr. Obama is going to bring 1 trillion more to the table for more bailouts in June, so hey better than expected right?

reply to post by theWCH


It has slowed down my friend.. like I said we may slide to 11% (or 20 some if you count the "real data" lol) but this is all good news with market reaching new highs as well.. we are definitely going to test the 200EMA like NASDAQ now IMHO

reply to post by Vitchilo


Dear Vitchello,

Please, let me teach you how a market like this functions. You are obviously in the dark, but the good news is, I am willing to help you. If you are losing money in this environment, I am at least willing to guide you in a better direction.

Yours truly

Greenbicman

Esq. III

reply to post by theWCH


The unemployed typically do not have any home equity to draw on this time around. In some cases their 401K plans are frozen leaving only credit cards to pay their bills. That means there will be a delay in accountability.

People laid off now may only be getting to the point of personal bankruptcy in 2010 and the banks won't be able to foreclose on their homes till 2011.

Ben has hinted that this recession could take a very long time to recover from and certainly a delay of several years seems likely.

The stock market investors do not seem to be looking at the underlying situation. As long as they can keep pumping the market up they will. They know when the rally breaks there should be a pretty big pullback, but it is hard to conceive what will finally trigger the reversal.

FDIC Friday...did Y'all ferget?

Press Releases
www.fdic.gov...

Kitsap Bank, Port Orchard, Washington, Assumes All of the Deposits of Westsound Bank, Bremerton, Washington

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
May 8, 2009
Media Contact:
David Barr (202) 898-6992
Cell: (703) 622-4790
Email: [email protected]

Westsound Bank, Bremerton, Washington, was closed today by the Washington Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Kitsap Bank, Port Orchard, Washington, to assume all of the deposits, except those from brokers, of Westsound Bank.

Westsound Bank's nine offices will reopen on Monday as branches of Kitsap Bank. Depositors of the failed bank will automatically become depositors of Kitsap Bank. Deposits will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship to retain their deposit insurance coverage.

Over the weekend, customers of Westsound Bank can access their deposits by writing checks or using ATM or debit cards. Checks drawn on the bank will continue to be processed. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.

As of March 31, 2009, Westsound Bank had total assets of $334.6 million and total deposits of $304.5 million. Kitsap will not assume the approximately $9.4 million in brokered deposits. The FDIC will pay the brokers directly. Customers who placed money with brokers should contact them directly for more information about the status of their deposits.

More at Link...

Banks won Concessions: Fed cut billions off of initial capital short falls

When the Fed last month informed banks of its preliminary stress-test findings, executives at corporations including Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. were furious with what they viewed as the Fed's exaggerated capital holes. A senior executive at one bank fumed that the Fed's initial estimate was "mind-numbingly" large. Bank of America was "shocked" when it saw its initial figure, which was more than $50 billion, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.

online.wsj.com...


Say it isn't so? Basically some of the initial estimates were SO large that Wells Fargo threatened to sue the government. Now we know why it took so long to get the results out. They had to change the amounts I hope that the people who bought into the capital raises done by banks on Friday sue the government and banks for misrepresentation if the magic unicorn rally dies out. Then again, they were dumb enough to buy these banks at +300% levels.

[edit on 8-5-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
I don't have much to say...except...see Standers posts above...

T with a Trillion...we got off easy

BETTER THAN EXPECTED

What say Marg???

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Yeah, except like down 90% from the top though, and I think now that major bank problems have been simulated, and for like rock bottom btw, all bad news has been priced it except maybe (credit cards? comm. real est?) so there is def. 2 ways to play this, and this is obvious if you have been watching BAC or C or PNC for that matter -

On a personal note, I have been programming am automated trade execution software for the e-minis and have found that to be doing excellent, especially in times of volatility - trading one contract i made in the 1000's (simulated demo acct - so obviously subtract some off the top) off of one contract.

If you havent I would look deeper in to these, especially for the tax implication, I have found them to be great instruments, unless it is that you or others i am sure are quite into these already.. equities just seem overplayed almost

If anyone wants the code I would be happy to share (runs on sierra charts)

[edit on 8-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]