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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on May, 6 2009 @ 11:12 PM
reply to post by theWCH

I have heard estimates rising to 11% before it is all said and done, and by 3rd qtr 2011 should be going back to positive job growth..

but this plays well with where we are in the markets at least..

so i guess in summation, we will continue to lose (and we give ourselves a divergence) as to what is "good" and "bad", this according to what big money says of course..

but i will say it again, right now, job losses do not mean anything to this market, and the past month or so, even when its been worse, the rally has been even greater for that particular day, so I guess what I am trying to say is to the "market" job losses are a trivial number (unless we score exponentially horrible or good one way or other)

posted on May, 6 2009 @ 11:16 PM
GBC, make money while you can, but as I said before, be careful. It will come crashing down at some point. This kind of crazy optimism can't sustain forever. And now gas is going back up...screw that...people will start cutting back again, and so will I.

posted on May, 6 2009 @ 11:20 PM
reply to post by TH3ON3

Gas going back up?

That makes my case 2x stronger IMO

Cant have high gas prices without a high market price

Take a deeper look into my TA's of the market, this come back crashing down talk is for the media types brother

EDIT: I really recommend you take a really deep look into the daily charts in the early 70's using my EMA's and then try to form a new opinion.. looks like the identical chart, and this is how I will play this until it breaks (see 80's)

[edit on 6-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 05:22 AM
Um - riiiight.

This is almost EXACTLY what happened during the great crash of 29 - to the T. The problem was leveraging through debt.....whooo hoo !

As we all know there was a massive slide - then a recovery of a year - and this is when the biggest gains were were made, week in week out - and then caboom.

Here is an EXCELLENT blog well worth following...

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 06:23 AM
Gas prices are going up because the summer is approaching and during the summer time, gas is always more expensive that during the winter months.

So this not new, is not surprise and is only expected, but how will affect consumer spending due to unemployment and harships that is something that needs more attention.

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 06:45 AM

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
Goldman Sachs upgraded financials

How the hell is this allowed to continue? How can a company upgrade themselves? This is TOTALLY CRIMINAL.

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 06:54 AM
reply to post by Vitchilo

Hey what do you expect from their fat rats working within the government, from Benanke to Geithner and also within the financial team of Obama.

They are the ones influencing polices, politics and anything else.

When is plenty of money to buy whores in Washington the pimps are having a blast.

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 06:57 AM
reply to post by stander

Then again can China and "traders" be that stupid, how can you invest in a nation that its economic view is nothing but build in lies, deceptions and dreams.

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 07:12 AM
Many of the technical analysts are having a lot of trouble with this rally because of the extreme circumstances. There is no clear trading range and the government interventions have skewed the data.

The short sellers are out of sync because although the RSI peaked weeks ago the market continues to rise. If you are long you are probably feeling pretty comfortable with the bank stress test results, and all the talk about the economy reaching bottom.

This recession has bankrupt the auto industry and pummeled real estate to an extent not seen since the great depression. Expecting a recovery in just 2 or 3 years is overoptimistic. When the RSI blue lines again the best thing that could happen is that the Dow makes a double bottom.

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 09:57 AM
reply to post by GreenBicMan

I agree that the equity markets don't care about job losses, ATM. They expect somewhere between 550k and 750k jobs lost per month, and this has been priced into the market.

It becomes far less trivial when we are looking at the overall economy. We can't continue to have the rate of job loss accelerate and think that the economy is about to get better. Our broad estimates of unemployment have already passed the levels seen during the Long Depression, following the panic of 1873; and the broadest estimates are closing in on the levels seen during the Great Depression (and it was the Dust Bowl, and not the financial meltdown, that drove GD levels so high).

We really don't know how a credit-dependent post-industrial society, with a high degree of economic inequality, will respond to having 25% of it's workers sitting at home. That would be terrifyingly uncharted territory. Looking at the big picture, if we go into an election cycle (2010 or 2012) with the U-3 at 11% (placing the U-6 at ~22% and the SGS numbers somewhere north of 25%) then we will have some serious cause for concern over our socio-political stability.

If the ADP numbers are accurate then that's a positive sign. If the Trimtabs numbers are accurate, then that's a very bad sign. I expect the BLS to put out numbers in the 600-650k range, which would not be great, after seasonal adjustments, but it wouldn't be awful.

But in regards to the current markets: I don't think anything less than 800k or more than 500k would move the markets significantly.

[edit on 7-5-2009 by theWCH]

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 01:14 PM
reply to post by GreenBicMan
Yep...Golds looking better every Bond Auction...

Today was a wicked sell session, spreads and yields are wicked

It all my be "priced in", but...

Can anyone say, "Bond Market Dislocation"???

And Oil going up? In this economy? Hmmm...going to drive even more consumers into the woodwork...

The EU keeps downgrading GDP every article I see...

The Market is not the Economy...

And yeah Banks upgrading themselves should be criminal...

Have a nice "Crash"...ummm...I mean day...

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 01:45 PM

Can anyone say, "Bond Market Dislocation"???

What's going up in the bond market? Bonds going up means the dollar sell off?

And Oil going up? In this economy? Hmmm...going to drive even more consumers into the woodwork...

Oil is going up because dollar is going down, nothing else.

So do you think the analysts date at LEAP2020 for a september/october US defaut is accurate?

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 02:44 PM
Well people more great news coming from the morons (I mean) geniuses in government.

This morons (I mean geniuses) truly think that pouring trillions of dollars on the "markets again" to boost commercial real state is going to fix the economy like they did with the banks, but still forget that without jobs is not income, without income is not cash flow, loans or credit.

New Fed Bailout Program to Launch in June

The Federal Reserve announced on May 1 that it would launch a much-anticipated branch of the Term Asset-Back Securities Loan Facility, or TALF program, as early as this June to bolster commercial real-estate lending. The goal of the program is to boost lending and avoid borrower defaults, which have had a ruinous ripple-effect throughout the financial world for nearly two years.

The TALF, by some estimates, could generate up to $1 trillion in lending options for businesses and households. Fed chairman Bernanke warned politicians in March that there was a looming crisis in commercial lending, saying that the market for related securities had completely evaporated in mid-2008.


Where are the jobs!!!!!!!

None of this addresses the real problem in the system. We bought too much real-estate on borrowed money. We leveraged ourselves too thin. We deregulated to the point that nobody really understood what was happening anymore. And we still have not solved the problem of losing jobs, wages, and long-term profits to overseas production facilities and foreign workers

The banks are not fixed by any means and now they are to squander more money on another project that is bottomless also.

[edit on 7-5-2009 by marg6043]

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 02:56 PM
Let gets realistic people

Our own government elected by the people and for the people are running this nation to the grown, in an effort to boost banks and private interest in the markets.

But they are doing it with the future of American citizens well being in the line.

The future of all our unborn children.

According the Levy Institute’s econometric equation for the US economy:

Trade Deficit = Federal Deficit – Savings


Trade Surplus = Federal Surplus + Savings

What the equation means is the federal government has to run a deficit equal to or higher than the trade deficit to keep the economy in equilibrium.

Over the past twenty years, the US trade deficit amounted to nearly seven trillion dollars. That deficit was financed by the federal government running a net deficit and the US consumer borrowing and not saving. Consumers racked up six trillion dollars in debt in the first eight years of this decade.

Obama have the right idea on how to fix the economy, but the morons he has surrounded with do not.

The trade deficit is reducing U.S. GDP by $400 billion, annually, and significantly adding to the pain imposed by the unfolding recession. The negative effects of the trade deficit on GDP and employment overwhelm the potential positive effects of President Obama’s proposed stimulus spending. To finance the deficit of recent years, Americans have borrowed more than $6.5 trillion from foreign sources, including foreign governments, and the debt service comes to more than $1500 for each working American. The flood of dollars into foreign government hands has bloated sovereign wealth funds that are now buying significant shares of U.S. businesses and other property, and threaten to compromise the loyalties of U.S. businesses.

In order for the President to fix this nation with his original plan he has to fired all the fat rats he has surrounding himself with and hired experts that has not links to the big crooks that are running the financial sector.

We need jobs!!!!!!!!!!!

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 03:01 PM
One in Five Homeowners Are Underwater on their Mortgages

This what unemployment and the denigration of the work force in the US is doing to Americas home owners, no longer the so call buying beyond your means has to do anymore with the housing crash, now the real issue is the amount of unemployed been hit in this recession.

Over one in five American homeowners are currently faced with the prospect of owing more on their mortgages on their homes than they are worth, according to real estate Web site

Currently, 21.8 percent of American homeowners are underwater on their mortgages. That represents more than 20 million homes.

Those facing negative equity in homes are the most likely to enter into foreclosure because selling their homes is nearly impossible without bringing cash to the table.

This the true picture of Americans economic crisis.

Some markets are in very serious trouble, with a majority of homeowners in those markets underwater on their mortgages. Those areas include Las Vegas where 67.2 percent of the homes there are underwater, Stockton, Calif. which has 51.1 percent of homeowners owing more on their mortgages than their home is worth and Modesto, Calif. where 50.8 percent of homes are facing negative equity.

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 04:05 PM

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by stander

Then again can China and "traders" be that stupid, how can you invest in a nation that its economic view is nothing but build in lies, deceptions and dreams.

The nation, dear marg, goes through its re-birth. The foundations of the new nation are firmly anchored in its new motto: BETTER THAN EXPECTED.

Weekly initial jobless claims not as bad as expected, continuing claims in-line with consensus forecast .

First quarter productivity increases more than expected, but unit labor costs rise above consensus prediction.

Retailers report same-store sales results that are generally better than expected.

Expect the worst possible and if things get just worse -- rejoice!

Let's practice, marg. We must adjust to the new times and grow with the new nation: And I say onto you that BofA needs at least $500 billion to continue its operations and stay in business.

Bank of America stock rose Wednesday after reports that the Charlotte, N.C.-based company would need to collect $34 billion in additional capital.

Much better than expected! The bank needs only $34 billion. That's peanuts.

The Dow tripped a bit today, but not the better-than-expected BofA: BAC 13.51 +0.82 +6.46%.


~ stainless steel! ~

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 04:51 PM
reply to post by stander

You make me laugh, you know is so predictable, the government needs to combat the bad news so now is not such thing as bad news, the new phrase is better than expected, I tell you the morons I mean the geniuses in government actually think that if you wish upon a star your wish will come true.

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 05:34 PM
Yeah lets all buy into the Rally!!!

Only $ Stander said peanuts...

Think I'll sell all my Gold at the lows and buy a lot of financial and commercial!!!

Hell with Uncle Ben footing the bill we can't lose...right?!?

Oh yeah GMAC and GE need more also...lets not forget them...they all can't be Golden Slacks and JP More-again

And LEAP 20/20...we got between June and November to see eh?

Spanish March Industrial Production -25% On Year

[edit on 5/7/2009 by Hx3_1963]

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 05:51 PM
reply to post by Hx3_1963

Hey at this rate our trillion dollar deficit will become a zillion dollar deficit, what goes after trillions?

So if we got a bailout in February, then another in June this means that the next bailout will be for the credit card industry in like you said November.

So how much money can a country print before running our of trees for paper or are they to use recycle paper for now on.

posted on May, 7 2009 @ 06:07 PM

Treasuries tumble to new lows as investors demand higher than expected yields.

:sighs: Why do I feel like things aren't getting better?

I do have some good news...commodity prices are increasing. I now spend around 8 dollars more to fill up my tank. I wonder how much more I pay for bills and food
Keep the fake rally going so an already down consumer can be kicked over and over.

I am seriously hoping the employment report is dastardly so commodities can go down (but the markets have rallied on bad news up until now so maybe I wish for good news? Oh they rally on that too

[edit on 7-5-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

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