The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Originally posted by HimWhoHathAnEar
reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity

 

No part of the monetary supply disappeared. Debt disappeared and trying to make it reappear won't work.

Debt is an asset of the banks. When this asset falls in value the banks have to reduce loan activity or raise funds in the amount of the asset times leverage. This serves to limit the available supply of money like it or not.

reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity


I am ignoring the day to day fluctuations. I am employing the history of money and commerce to form my opinion. I study the long term trends and the fact of the matter is this:

Money is a primitive territorial tool that has immorality built into it's very usage. From the commerce it fuels to the poverty it creates. It isn't an aberration that people are poor in a market of any kind, it is a direct effect, just as war, crime, and all other manner of government and corporate corruption. The sole driving factor of these actions are power and wealth to fuel that power, and money is the vehicle by which such things are done.

That is quite enough "Talking To Yourself"

Any more and warnings will ensue

Semper

Hi all, sorry to have missed the excitement - made some $$ early in the morning and was almost asleep when the FOMC announcement came out - perked up long enough to her it - say Oh S$%T and get some sleep.

Then got up and went to the grocery and other shopping to stock up while I could.

So we basically have a USD devaluation happening with the FOMC announcement. Will it leave a mark? MAYBE

If the G20 has decided that there will be a global devaluation of currencies, we won't feel it as sharply.

Remember folks, in the last 18 months a HUGE amount of the wealth of the US disappeared. Even with printing, I am still not sure that the deflationary spiral can be over come, but they sure are trying - I'll give them that.

The problem of course is what will other countries do with our T's as the dollar devalues. Will they call them in for redemption or will they continue buying. TIC data (Feb data not released to public until April 15) shows that foreign purchases have pretty much stopped. Here's a good commentary on the dwindling foreign purchase of bonds.

Until we see what happens in the T auctions, we just won't know. But... Here is a perspective that shows why China will *probably* keep buying

Buying our own bonds keeps us alive for a little longer, but like a snake eating it's tail - eventually it will kill us.

In a way it is almost like *they* have put the head of the US on the chopping block and are hoping that the stay of execution will come in before the beheading happens.

One thing I am pretty sure of, our illusion of free market is completely gone. Whatever parts were still free, they won't be anymore.

The manipulation to control the housing market is taking such a front focus that they rest of the bubbles (credit, CRE) are not getting the attention needed. To save one bubble and lose 2 others is just as suicidal, because we will go through this endlessly to keep bubbles inflated. But then again, maybe that is what Bernanke is trying to do, pump dollars into the system to get credit flowing so that the US consumer will use credit to continue purchasing even in an inflationary environment

With our tax base rapidly diminishing through the rise in unemployment, there really is no way for a hyper-inflationary situation to develop, without a rise in wages, you cannot possibly have hyper-inflation. And right now we don't have ENOUGH wage earners.

If anything todays announcement reinforces the idea that cash is king. Be prepared for your living standards to change, because things are going to get really rough.

Bernanke killed the dollar.
Inflation, here we come.

How much time till complete disintegration? I say top 3 years.
Prices will skyrocket.

Originally posted by disgustedbyhumanity

Originally posted by HimWhoHathAnEar
reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity

 

No part of the monetary supply disappeared. Debt disappeared and trying to make it reappear won't work.

Debt is an asset of the banks. When this asset falls in value the banks have to reduce loan activity or raise funds in the amount of the asset times leverage. This serves to limit the available supply of money like it or not.

Debt is an asset of the banks that is created from Nothing through fractional reserve banking. When they over lever, it should be allowed to return to Nothing. Monetizing it never works.

reply to post by redhatty


so much i would like to say but im typing this on me phone so it will be much shorter.

the devaluation of the dollar is sought imo for a few main reasons. to end deflation is the primary reason, and also the weaker the dollar the stronger international investment and our corporations make a killing in other countries. just look at 3rd q reports from companies like coca cola, who only had a profit because of currency exchanges from international sales.

however it's not going to work.. we will see cpi increase, food and energy as well leading to inflation of prices and deflation of the currency. with a cash strapped populace and a deflating dollar plus rising cost of living, it will spark a strong surge in deflation as the broader economy suffers. people will cut back further on spending, leading to further unemployment, further deflation.

so congrats fed, you weaken our purchasing power when things are tough, easing us into a depression. this is taxation, simple as that. i think its plainly clear the last stimulus package won't do crap for us lil guys....

reply to post by redhatty


Humm...maybe the governing staff has been warning us with subliminal
messages that there was going to be a good economic crisis...

Never
Waste A Good Crisis

Just posted!

reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity


I am not sure what a star is. The posts of yours seem upbeat and well thought out. It seems like you have been around the block.
A thought or two for all----We are all playing against the HOUSE.
If we all loose what becomes of the HOUSE?
If you have some stocks that will take a long time to revive, will or better yet, gift them to some one more youthful than yourself. Don't sell them to a camel jocky.
Tomorrow find the ones that look like fish flopping on the shore trying to get back in the water and buy them. If you have any cash left.
Milkins , Lay and Madoff not to mention the corrupt politicos are or will burn in hell.

[edit on 19-3-2009 by Donny 4 million]

S&P 500 -5.20 786.40 3/19 2:49am
Fair Value 790.78 3/18 8:41pm
Difference* -4.38

NASDAQ -11.25 1201.50 3/19 2:09am
Fair Value 1207.34 3/18 8:41pm
Difference* -5.84

Dow Jones -43.00 7400.00 3/19 3:03am
===
Shanghai Composite 2,262.128 2:53AM ET 38.403 (1.73%)
Hang Seng 13,063.64 2:53AM ET -53.53 (-0.41%)
Nikkei 225 7,945.96 2:00AM ET -26.21 (-0.33%)
===
Gold $932.47
===
CBOE 10-Year Treasury Yield Index. TNX 25.33 -4.70 -15.65%
US Dollar Index Future - Spot Price. DXY 84.35 -0.24 -0.29%

Anyone notice in the AIG hearings they never got around to how in the hell are they going to pay us back?
(Well to be fair..it was supposed to be about the retention fees...)

After passing $100B out the back door, for 100% no questions asked coverage, they say they'll sell units after breakup?

To who? Who's got any money to buy for one and two alot of the units will be worthless after "The Winddown"...that's going to go well...

A bit more to worry about; foreign demand for long-term Treasuries has faded
blogs.cfr.org...

I wanted to highlight one trend that I glossed over on Monday, namely that foreign demand for long-term Treasuries has disappeared over the last few months. Consider a chart showing foreign purchases of long-term Treasuries over the past 3 months. Incidentally, the split between private and official purchases in this data should largely be ignored. The revised (i.e. post-survey) data generally have attributed nearly all the flow from 2003 to the official sector.

The rolling 3m sum bounces around a bit, but foreign demand for long-term Treasuries in November, December and January was as subdued as it has been for a long-time. Among other things, that fall in foreign demand for long-term Treasuries after October suggests — at least to me — that the big Treasury rally late last year (and subsequent sell-off this year) doesn’t seem to have been driven by external flows. Foreigners weren’t big buyers of long-term Treasuries back when ten year Treasury yields fell to around 2%.

There also is at least a passing resemblance between a chart of foreign demand for US corporate bonds and foreign demand for Treasuries.

It is also striking that — for all the talk of safe haven flows to the US — foreign demand for all long-term US bonds has effectively disappeared.

What have foreign investors been buying? Short-term Treasury bills. In huge quantities. On a rolling 3m basis, foreign investors bought nearly $500 billion in bills at the peak of the crisis.

However, that surge in demand for bills now seems to be fading.

The fall off in total TIC flows in January reflected private bill sales. The official sector is still buying — $100 billion in bill purchases over the last 3 months of data only seems small relative to the post Lehman peak. But with global reserve growth slowing (even China doesn’t currently seem to be adding to its reserves), central banks won’t be as large a source of demand for Treasuries going forward as they have been in the past.

That means a fall off in central bank demand for Treasuries wouldn’t necessarily be a sign that central banks have lost confidence in the US Treasury market. It could equally be a sign that a lot of central banks no longer have any new funds to invest.

That said, a lot of central banks are now holding an awful lot of zero coupon (or close to it) bills. At some point they might be induced to buy somewhat longer-dated Treasuries to pick up a bit of yield. No trend — including the current vogue for bills — lasts forever.

Why does this matter?

Foreign demand for Treasuries hasn’t kept up with Treasury issuance, but it undeniably has been strong. Over the last 12 months, net foreign purchases of Treasuries financed much of the US current account deficit.

The trade and current account deficit has fallen substantially as a result of the fall in oil prices, so the US needs less external financing now than in the past. But it still needs some.

The “quality” of the financial flows into the US consequently bears watching. A modest revival in foreign demand for longer-dated US assets would be a positive sign. To date, the sale of US assets abroad and a scramble for liquid dollar assets has provided the US with more than enough financing to sustain its deficit. Those flows though may not continue.

And if — as seems likely — foreign demand for Treasuries fades long before the US fiscal deficit, the US Treasury will need to sell an awful lot of Treasuries to American investors. For the past several years I have argued that it was almost impossible to overstate the impact of central bank demand on the Treasury market.

That may no longer be the case going forward.

The world is changing. Global reserves aren’t growing. The echo from their past peak that we observe in the current Treasury data will fade.

Something to ponder/consider/ect...


[edit on 3/19/2009 by Hx3_1963]

We have lots of bull signals in the market after today.

Even though there was a freak out by many from the FOMC announcement, when you catch your breath and think about it, $300B in T's is less than what is already scheduled to be issued over the next few months. It's really a big nothing - so stop freaking out.

What is significant is the MBS coupon buying. This is bringing in the spreads on these and that's good for the mortgage brokers, even if they aren't spreading it to clients - they are holding it, not sure if it's gonna last - can't say I blame them.

The goal, of course, is to stabilize the housing market / prices and help spur it along with lower interest rates for mortgages. We'll see how it plays out.

Now to the charts...

S&P is still looking at overhead resistance at the 804-805 level, if that breaks solidly, then we will get a rocket shot.

NASDAQ is wonderfully bullish! there is no overhead resistance until about the 1275 level

The Russell had not touched the 50DMA yet, but small caps are leading the way to it. This index looks like it is in a solid bull run, I wouldn't dare short it at this time.

The DOW has not broken the 50 DMA yet, but I expect it to. DJT (transports) and DJU (utilities) are both ramping and looking like they are ready to test the 50DMA.

XLF touched the 50DMA before dropping back off and trying to come back up. I expect to see this continue to test the 50 DMA and if it breaks it there is NOTHING in the way of overhead resistance for quite a while.

Citi hit the 50DMA on high, solid volume, if it breaks it, the next area of overhead resistance is around $4

BOA broke the 50DMA on very high volume, expect this to keep climbing as there is no resistance until about the $12 mark

JPM already broke the 50 and came back, broke it again today on HUGE volume, I see no reason for this to not go all the way up to $33 which is the next resistance level.

GS is looking real good right now - they broke the $100 level, so they are back in the equity side of the game, no overhead resistance on this climb until the $120 level

That's what I see, anyone have any other views, please feel free to share them