EXCLUSIVE: Spin and Counterspin: New Bird Flu Mutation has 91% Fatality Rate in Humans

News reports say that 3 dead children in Afghanistan were not infected with bird flu - but they were not tested.

Tests on birds in a remote Afghan mountain village where three children recently died found no evidence of bird flu, the United Nations said on Monday.

...the recent deaths of the three children from the same family in the central province of Ghor raised fears they might have caught the disease from sick birds. Samples were not taken before the children were buried.

So. Tests on birds remain limited. Few animals and people are tested - and only then when symptoms are life threatening. Mild cases or formes frustes are ignored.

How can anyone say bird flu is not pandemic already? The radar is up only for the rapidly fatal respiratory form.


.

Yesterday Sir David King, the Government's chief scientific adviser in the DTI, said a human flu pandemic was "not inevitable". That flatly contradicted remarks by the Government's chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, of the DoH, that a human pandemic was inevitable. Sir Liam has said several times it was a question of "when, not if" a pandemic struck.

Risk to humans from bird flu splits ministry experts

Acute infections, like bird flu, can trigger blood clots that may lead to stroke and heart attack says a study published in April's Lancet.

Infections are associated with an increase risk of developing deep vein thrombosis, a condition in which a blood clot forms, usually in the leg, which can lead to a heart attack or strode. Also increased is the risk of pulmonary embolism, a life-threatening condition in which a blood clot travels to the lungs, according to a report by UK researchers

Previous reports have linked infections with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease involving the arteries, but it was unclear if the same held true for thromboembolic disease affecting the veins.

Respiratory infections were also associated with an increased risk of deep vein thrombosis... "Our finding that two infectious processes in different organ systems are associated with a substantial, reversible increase in the risk of venous thromboembolism suggest that acute infections may have a causal role in triggering events," the researchers conclude. "We now need to uncover the mechanism that underlies the risk."

SOURCE: The Lancet, April 1. 2006. Infections can trigger serious blood clots

Previous research shows that flu effects are worse if the victim has chronic disease, and also that infection can cause heart disease. This is the first study showing infection in various parts of the body can trigger cardiovascular events directly.

In the meantime, Portugal just discovered that there are far more Portugese with chronic disease than previously thought: "60 percent of people aged 65 or older have some form of chronic illness," and "Among those between 19 and 64 the rate is over 25 percent, mostly due to heart, lung or kidney ailments."

A new study has shown Portugal to have a higher number of chronically ill people than previously thought, making the nation more vulnerable to viruses like bird flu, a health department official said.

"When it comes to chronic disease, the population is sicker than we thought," researcher Baltazar Nunes of the National Health Institute told state radio RDP.

According to the new data, 60 percent of people aged 65 or older have some form of chronic illness, Nunes said. Among those between 19 and 64 the rate is over 25 percent, mostly due to heart, lung or kidney ailments, he added.

Chronic sickness makes Portuguese vulnerable to bird flu, viruses

The top 5 chronic diseases - heart disease, cancer, stroke, COPD, and diabetes - cause more than two-thirds of all deaths in the USA. More than 90 million Americans are estimated to have chronic disease.

Milder forms of bird flu cause chronic disease and are endemic in the human population, according to one speculation.

WHO protocols allow stroke and heart attack to be reported as 'cause of death' without reference to underlying conditions.




.
oops. No edit, needed link, hit wrong button.

[edit on 11-4-2006 by soficrow]

In the UK, the H5N1 positive swan was found to be a migratory whooper swan - which is potentially more dangerous. In addition, scientists are questioning the validity of bird flu testing in the UK, saying the negative results are unreliable.

* Scientists mistook bird flu infected whooper swan for a native mute swan
* Migratory whooper swans pose higher risk of spreading infection in UK
* 600 whooper swans tested for bird flu as authorities consider quarantine

SWEEPING new bird flu restrictions may have to be imposed across large parts of Britain after scientists discovered they had wrongly identified the type of swan found dead in Fife, the Scottish Executive admitted yesterday.

Scotland's chief vet, Charles Milne, said it was impossible to say whether the bird had caught the disease in another country or in the UK. ...But he said the fact that the swan was not a native bird was not necessarily good news. "Whooper swans are long-distance migrants. They potentially move around more than mute swans," he said. ...He said: "We need to consider the implications and what other measures may be necessary."

***

Bird flu tests in Britain 'flawed'

Tests for bird flu in Britain may fail to detect cases because of the way samples are collected. Scientists abroad are puzzled that so few of the tests carried out by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) prove positive for the forms of flu commonly carried by birds.

International experience indicates that 6 to 7 per cent of birds should test positive for mild forms of flu distinct from the H5N1 strain found in the dead swan in Scotland. Defra’s tests, New Scientist reports, found only two cases of low-pathogenicity bird flu in 3,343 samples collected in December — 0.06 per cent. “There’s something wrong with these numbers,” Björn Olsen, of the University of Kalmar, in Sweden, told New Scientist.

***

Reuters: Britain's bird flu testing method questioned

ABC News

New Scientist: UK's bird tests may be missing flu virus

H5N1 bird flu continues to spread and mutate.

Ongoing tests on birds showed that Azerbaijan was free of H5N1 virus - but the WHO just reported another human case in that country. The April 11 Recombinomics commentary suggests that the H5N1 bird flu variant in Azerbaijan may not be spreading bird-to-human but via some other vector. In addition, it may be illustrating a longer incubation period or indicating the presence of human or other carriers.

H5N1 Bird Flu Familial Cluster in Azerbaijan Grows Again

Recombinomics Commentary
April 11, 2006

Today WHO disclosed that another person (17F) related to several H5N1 positive patients in Azerbaijan, has also tested positive for H5N1 bird flu. The latest disclosure raises the number of relatives or close friend who were H5N1 positive to 7, representing 5 families.

The index case (17F) died on February 23. Initially she was thought to have died from respiratory complications associated with lung cancer. However, the initial WHO report failed to indicate that she was a first cousin of the second confirmed H5N1 fatality (20F) who died March 3. Her close friend (17F) died March 8 and her brother (16M) died March 10. Thus, the first 4 H5N1 positive cases in the community died, and all were related or neighbors.

The latest report indicates that two more relatives developed symptoms on March 11, after the first four had died. In addition, a sister (16F) of one of the discharged patients (15F) also was H5N1 positive in local tests. ...Thus, there were 7 patients who were H5N1 positive and closely linked, although the disease onset dates were spread over a period of more than a month. The extended time frame makes a common source unlikely, although WHO initially speculated that the cases were linked to feather plucking of dead wild birds.

Measures to control bird flu in Indonesia aren't working, and human bird flu cases in the country have been averaging one a week since September.

PULLED FROM THE NET: Indonesia's Bird Flu Cases Indicate Virus Control Isn't Working
Bloomberg - 2 hours ago
April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Human bird flu cases in Indonesia, averaging one a week since September, indicate measures to control the virus haven't stopped it ...

***

Human bird flu cases in Indonesia, averaging one a week since September, indicate measures to control the virus haven't stopped it spreading among poultry, a United Nations envoy said.

``I remain very concerned about the continued reports of human cases and fatalities because this means that bird flu in rural and urban areas is very pronounced,'' David Nabarro, the UN's senior coordinator for bird flu and pandemic influenza, said yesterday in an interview in Indonesia's capital, Jakarta.

The WHO yesterday confirmed Indonesia's 31st avian flu case after a man in Padang city on Sumatra island tested positive for the H5N1 virus. The health agency also said tests on samples taken from an 8-year-old girl who died in July 2005 indicated she also may have had the virus in the same month that the country's first fatality was reported.

Indonesian Bird Flu Cases Show Virus-Control Weakness (Update2)

Scientists are very concerned about H5N1's unpredictability, although the virus is not yet spreading easily from human-to-human. One of the biggest worries is that bird flu will spread to humans by an indirect route, with some other animal serving as an "intermediary host."

Bird flu seems to "settle" in infected populations and become endemic. If the virus finds a permanent home in domesticated animals like cats or dogs, it is more likely to mutate into a form that is easily transmissible human-to-human.

In an attempt to calm fears and set the record straight, the WHO recently issued a statement that said: "All available evidence indicates that the virus does not spread easily from poultry to humans ... ."

....more alarming, researchers are now concerned that the virus might gain entry into human populations via an indirect method, with household pets like cats serving as an intermediary host. ...It has been demonstrated in the lab that the virus can be transmitted from cat to cat.

...If the virus finds a permanent home in domesticated mammals like cats or dogs, it is theoretically more likely to mutate into a form which is easily transmitted to humans. This means the bigger threat would not be direct bird-to-human transmission, but bird-to-cat and cat-to-human transmission - and eventually, human-to-human transmission. ...So far, the virus has been found in felines in Asia, Iraq and Germany.


***

Health: Unpredictability of Bird Flu Virus Worries Doctors
International News Service, Australia - 4 hours ago
... 11, 2006 (IPS/GIN) -- When a 12-year-old boy became Cambodia's latest victim of bird flu early this month, it only added to the uncertainties for scientists ...

Burma is the latest country to suffer - with more than 100 separate outbreaks of H5N1 bird flu in poultry.

The bird flu situation in Burma is more serious than expected, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation alone is tracking more than 100 separate outbreaks of H5N1 flu in areas near Mandalay and Sagaing, officials said in Bangkok on Monday. ...World Health Organisation representative Somchai Peerapakorn said Burma's ruling generals have requested help from the WHO, which will send a team to the country at the end of this month. ...In Rangoon, the weekly Burma Times reported Monday that the outbreak of the H5N1 type bird flu in central Burma is ongoing....

Dr Nabarro said that nations should be prepared to pledge hundreds of millions more dollars to combat bird flu as the H5N1 virus affects more developing nations. ...Western and Asian donors had pledged $1.9 billion in January during a conference in Beijing to combat bird flu and improve containment and prevention methods in 12 countries, mostly in Asia.

But with the virus steadily spreading across the world through migratory birds, including infections in at least five African nations, health officials must reassess how much funding they will need to help developing nations that lack proper resources to detect, prevent and contain outbreaks, Dr Nabarro said. ..."The amount of H5N1 in birds is considerably more than it was a year ago, ...
The potential cost of a global influenza pandemic is massively greater than might be the amount required to meet an international threat," he said.

H5N1 bird flu started in domestic flocks and only then spread to wild migratory birds. The spread to wild birds occurred because industrialization and "development" forced wild birds into farming areas. Scientists recommend restoring wetlands to help stop bird flu's spreading in migratory birds.

Restoring wetlands and clearing poultry farms from migratory flyways could help curb the spread of bird flu by stopping wild birds from mixing with domestic fowl, a U.N.-commissioned report said on Tuesday.

The clearance of wetlands due to drainage for agriculture or hydroelectric projects is forcing some wild birds on to alternative sites such as farm ponds and paddy fields, bringing them into direct contact with domestic poultry, the report said. ...This increases the spread of the virus, which has jumped from Asia to Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

"There's a contraction for the habitat for wild birds and a natural situation arising which promotes the inter-mixing of wild birds and domestic poultry," said David Rapport, a Canadian professor and lead author of the report.

"So should a pathogen arise in domestic poultry, it becomes more likely to be spread into wild birds... because the health of those ecosystems has been compromised," he told a news conference in Nairobi.

Report: Restoring Wetlands Key to Curbing Bird Flu

.

Russian poultry vaccinated against H5N1 bird flu caught it anyway and died from the infection.

Vaccines tend to help create new flu strains, which is why they are not used routinely in poultry. (See previous posts here for more info, references)

...20 birds vaccinated against the lethal H5N1 strain of the disease April 4 had died at a small homestead in a Volgograd region village. ...the remaining 25 birds at the homestead have been slaughtered.

In late March, bird flu hit another village in the region, where 85 birds kept in the yard of a house had died. ...The Emergency Situations Ministry said this week that around 1.1 million birds had died of the disease in Russia while 0.3 million have been culled in measures to control the spread of the virus since February 3.

The H5N1 strain returned to southern Russia, a stopover for migrating birds, in February, following outbreaks last year. ...Before today's deaths, officials said a massive vaccination campaign had made it possible to prevent an epidemic, with around 20 million birds vaccinated in 62 Russia's regions since March 10.

New bird-flu outbreak in southern Russia hits vaccinated fowl

.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns that cats in H5N1 bird flu infected zones and surveillance zones should be kept indoors.

...among the wild birds implicated in the transboundary spread of the virus, aquatic birds play a major role, FAO said on Thursday in a statement.

Epidemiological findings and experimental studies have demonstrated that some mammal species, particularly cats may be susceptible to the virus.

In view of the susceptibility of certain individuals of this species, cats in infected zones and surveillance zones set up around avian influenza outbreaks must be kept indoors, FAO said.

FAO Confirms Animal Species Susceptible to H5N1 Virus

An ATS member from Alaska reports:

I was listening to my local Public Radio Station and an interesting public service announcement came on. The announcement stated "The bird flu affects birds, not humans." It then went on to say that is was still OK to hunt and eat birds, but you should wash your hands and knifes after cleaning birds.

Yet Reuters and MSNBC warn that Alaska natives are likely to be exposed to bird flu...

Alaska Natives likely to be exposed to bird flu

Alaska Natives may be the the most likely people in North America to be exposed to the avian flu virus because they depend for food on wild migratory birds from Asia, a health care expert said Thursday.

Reuters

Five dogs died after eating dead chickens in Nairobi and a headline from a US Government information site says the U.N. says mammals are not considered bird flu carriers.

In fact, numerous mammals have tested positive for bird flu. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) recently released a warning that cats in H5N1 bird flu infected zones and surveillance zones should be kept indoors.

Africa's first reported case of (A) H5N1 bird flu was in Nigeria on February 26. It has since spread to Niger, Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Egypt. Africa does not have adequate resources for bird flu surveillance and testing. Wars and internal conflict also interfere with public health programs.

Ivory Coast is investigating the possibility of bird flu after five dogs died after eating the carcasses some 100 chickens that recently died in the town of Bondunku, some 500km east of the commercial capital Abidjan, news reports said on Friday. ...If confirmed, it would be the first case of bird flu and prove difficult to track in the conflict-ridden west African country.

Nigeria reported Africa's first case of the lethal H5N1 strain of the bird-flu virus on February 26. ...It has since spread to Niger, Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Egypt...

Fears of bird flu in Ivory Coast

***

Domestic cats are not playing a significant role in the transmission of avian influenza, even though several feline cases of the disease have been reported.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) reported April 13 that epidemiological data show that domestic and wild birds remain the primary transmitters of the bird flu. As many as 50 nondomestic bird species are vulnerable to infection, according to the statement, but “aquatic birds play a major role.”

Mammals Not Considered Bird Flu Carriers, U.N. Reports

***

Epidemiological findings and experimental studies have demonstrated that some mammal species, particularly cats may be susceptible to the virus.

In view of the susceptibility of certain individuals of this species, cats in infected zones and surveillance zones set up around avian influenza outbreaks must be kept indoors, FAO said.

FAO Confirms Animal Species Susceptible to H5N1 Virus

Poultry smuggling is spreading bird flu. There is a huge international trade in smuggled poultry as well as fancy pet birds. And the (A)H5N1 bird flu virus survives in live birds, frozen meat, feathers, bones and on cages, though it dies with cooking.

There is increasing evidence that a thriving international trade in smuggled poultry — including live birds, chicks and meat — is helping spread bird flu, experts say.

Poultry smuggling is a huge business that poses a unique threat: The (A)H5N1 bird flu virus is robust enough to survive not just in live birds but also in frozen meat, feathers, bones and even on cages, though it dies with cooking.

"No one knows the real numbers, but they are large," said Timothy E. Moore, director of federal projects at the National Agricultural Biosecurity Center at Kansas State University. ..."Behind illegal drug traffic, illegal animals are No. 2," he said. "And there is no doubt in my mind that this will play a prominent role in the spread of this disease. It looks to be the main way it is spreading in some parts of the world," along with the migration of wild birds. ...In the United States, Dr. Moore, of the Kansas State University, worries particularly about poorly regulated markets in live birds that cater to Muslims and Jews who want poultry slaughtered according to religious custom.

Bird Flu Virus May Be Spread by Smuggling

The bird flu variant spreading in Indonesia has a very high fatality rate - and the World Organization for Animal Health warns that the nation has become a bird flu 'time-bomb.'

Indonesia has become a bird flu 'time-bomb' because of its failure to eradicate high numbers of deadly H5N1 sites, the head of the Paris-based World Organisation for Animal Health said.

Thirty-three people have been contaminated in Indonesia by the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, 24 of whom died, according to the World Health Organisation.

Indonesia is bird flu 'time-bomb'

Japan has joined the growing list of nations that have established quarantine laws for bird flu.

Japan's health ministry decided Friday to designate the deadly H5N1 strain of avian influenza as an infectious disease to prevent it from spreading in Japan in the event of an outbreak, ministry officials said.

The designation will enable authorities to force infected persons to be hospitalized for treatment and impose restrictions on their work activities, the officials of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare said. ...The government had initially planned to designate the H5N1 strain of bird flu as an infectious disease following confirmation of an outbreak. ...But it reversed its position and decided to proceed with the designation anyway, in part because H5N1 has been spreading rapidly in the world with about 190 cases of human infection confirmed since mid-2003 in nine countries in Asia and in the Middle East, the officials said.

Currently, the H5N1 strain of avian influenza falls in a category of diseases for which authorities are not allowed to isolate a patient. ...With the new designation, authorities can require a person suspected of being infected with the disease to undergo medical checkups. They can also order a ban on moving the body of a patient who died of the disease. ...The designation will be effective for one year but can be extended by another year if necessary, the ministry officials said. ...A similar designation will apply at quarantine stations, enabling Japanese authorities to require suspected carriers from countries where human cases of H5N1 have been confirmed to undergo a health check, the officials said.

Japan to designate H5N1 bird flu as infectious disease+

Worth reading: Bird Flu Migrates to the Americas

A 25-year-old Dane is reported to have been transferred to Copenhagen's Royal hospital after testing positive for bird flu in a local clinic. ...If confirmed, this would be the first case of bird flu in humans in the Scandinavian country.

On the basis of blood tests in a local hospital in southern Denmark, the man was diagnosed with bird flu, and transferred urgently to the Royal hospital, one of two hospitals in Denmark authorised to treat bird flu patients.

It is unknown where the man may have contracted the virus.

Dane tests positive for H5N1

No test, no find?

Children die from cholera in Mandalay where bird flu occurred

Some young children have been dying from cholera at some places in central Burma’s Mandalay where the deadly avian flu H5N1 occurred recently. ...Local residents told DVB that they are very concerned by the deaths of the children although the Burmese military government insisted that the flu outbreak is under firm control. Health staff also told DVB that there has been an increase in the cases of cholera in recent days.

As the cholera outbreak is occurring out of season, staff from divisional health department have been carrying out field works and tests and telling people to spray disinfectants around the areas affected. ...A nurse who doesn’t want to be identified said that most patients are young children severe diarrhoea from poor wards in Kanthaya or Pyigyitagun where the hygiene is particularly poor due to acute poverty.

The reports of deaths came after more than 400,000 birds including chickens and quails were culled recently in Mandalay as the deadly disease were found in some of them. But some poor people reportedly cooked and consumed chickens which should have been destroyed.

This is all hype. Let's look at this logically:
1. The current H5N1 is supposed to be really dangerous (91% fatality)
2. You can catch it by eating the meat (new one on me but hey what the hell)
3. You can catch it from the water (presumably especially so in areas of poor hygiene)
4. The far east has already had a number of human deaths.
5. They eat a lot of chicken in the far east.

If you put all this together then you should have had millions of deaths by now in countries like Vitenam !

That has not occured because its all hype. The biggest being that 91% which is simply based on a population sample of sick people identified has having the virus. It is not based on a sample of the population with a runny nose and a sore head. If there are/were 1 million Vietnamese who have had the H5N1 but were well enough to work then the death rate drops to .002% ! But we'll never know.

The statement that you can catch flu from eating the meat is astonishing. If that was the case Humans worldwide would have the flu all the time. H5N1 is but one strain of many that is in the poultry population all the time somewhere in the world.

This only becomes dangerous if it mutates to be human to human infectious which it may do in areas where human health is already poor.

The inference that this strain may be a biological weapon should remain in the minds of the paranoid. That fact that flu spread as it did after WWI is nothing to do with a conspiracy. You have millions of people in close contact in appalling conditions who then come home.......DUH!

Malcr - I suggest you read the text and follow up on the medical references, at least. You will find that your "critique" does not apply. But just to recap.

Originally posted by malcr
This is all hype. Let's look at this logically:
1. The current H5N1 is supposed to be really dangerous (91% fatality)

The reported fatality rate probably is skewed - as I clearly stated. But the reported fatality rate is rising and hit 91% between March 1 and March 24 of 2006.

There are several reasons why H5N1 bird flu might be under-diagnosed and under-reported, ranging from disinformation to lack of testing facilities.

Accurate diagnostic testing for H5N1 bird flu requires serious technology. The tests only are run on chickens when a major percentage of a flock dies. Humans are only tested if a) bird flu has already been found in chickens in the area, b) the person's symptoms are acute and respiratory, c) medical care is available, and d) the technology is available.

Bird flu testing is not routine. I suggest that H5N1 bird flu is endemic in humans, in a non-fatal form that causes progressive chronic disease and sometimes, congenital effects.

2. You can catch it by eating the meat (new one on me but hey what the hell)

Common knowledge. Authorities recommend cooking chicken to 165 degrees to kill the H5N1 bird flu virus - because the virus is present in blood and hence, the meat. The idea that bird flu does not spread in meat is the hype - designed to protect the Western-based poultry industry.

H5N1 bird flu is more like AIDS than influenza. Flu usually is respiratory - but H5N1 spreads in blood, feces and other body fluids, as well as the air. H5N1 has multiple vectors - and can present with gastrointestinal symptoms - well known scientific facts. The fact that H5N1 can spread via the respiratory route too is just icing on the microbial cake.

Virologists know (H5N1) infection occurs through contact with blood, feces and other body fluids, and ...the flu virus is also airborne, posing even a greater threat than AIDS.

Ie., Reported in the US National Institutes of Health PubMed database and Emerging Infectious Diseases in July 2004: Avian influenza should be included in the differential diagnosis for patients with predominantly gastrointestinal symptoms, particularly if they have a history of exposure to poultry.

3. You can catch it from the water (presumably especially so in areas of poor hygiene)

Again, H5N1 bird flu has multiple vectors. Wild birds likely caught H5N1 bird flu from domestic flocks via contaminated water. And yes, it can come back the other way too.

Birds spread the disease through droppings and other secretions, which often contaminate shared feed and water.

***

(H5N1), spread through bird feces, saliva and infected water... "You have to test the birds and test the water," Fair said. "If you find it in a lake, influenzas can hang around for a month. Some studies have shown it staying over 200 days." ...The longer the disease remains in the water, the more likely it is to find other host species, Fair said.


***

Reichholf suggested the more likely vector for the disease was the heavy use poulty faeces as fertilizer on fields.

Poultry fecal matter was washed into lakes and rivers and ingested by fish or other aquatic animals, he said. The contaminated fish were then eaten by birds and animals.

Fish meal is also widely used as protein in animal feed, including poultry feed.

4. The far east has already had a number of human deaths.
5. They eat a lot of chicken in the far east.

If you put all this together then you should have had millions of deaths by now in countries like Vitenam !

Again - H5N1 bird flu has multiple vectors, several points of entry into the human body - and therefor, a variety of presenting symptoms.

In fact, a variety of outbreaks said to be caused by other diseases are suspected to be bird flu, most recently a cluster of children's deaths in Mandalay being attributed to cholera because of the gastrointestinal symptoms. (See above.)

That has not occured because its all hype. The biggest being that 91% which is simply based on a population sample of sick people identified has having the virus. It is not based on a sample of the population with a runny nose and a sore head.

Exactly. No test, no find. But the hype is not what it seems to be. Look deeper.

IMO the real danger is flu-related progressive chronic disease, and genetic effects - NOT the lethal form.

If there are/were 1 million Vietnamese who have had the H5N1 but were well enough to work then the death rate drops to .002% ! But we'll never know.

Chronic disease already is epidemic world wide - and growing numbers of people are unable to work.

The statement that you can catch flu from eating the meat is astonishing.

Astonishing or not, H5N1 bird flu is present in meat.

If that was the case Humans worldwide would have the flu all the time.

Precisely. Which is one reason why I suggest that endemic flu underlies the world's chronic disease epidemic.

This only becomes dangerous if it mutates to be human to human infectious which it may do in areas where human health is already poor.

Like you, authorities and the media are focused on human-to-human respiratory transmission of a fatal form. I am saying that although the danger is real, such a mutation may be the least of our problems.

The inference that this strain may be a biological weapon should remain in the minds of the paranoid. That fact that flu spread as it did after WWI is nothing to do with a conspiracy. You have millions of people in close contact in appalling conditions who then come home.......DUH!

The inference is that (a) biological weapon(s) got out of control.

International industry has a great deal to gain from destroying the developing world's poutry industry - and the destruction is well on the way.

Anti-agricultural biowarfare and bioterrorism differ significantly from the same activities directed against humans; for instance, there exist a variety of possibilities for economic gain for perpetrators, and the list of possible perpetrators includes corporations, which may have state-of-the-art technical expertise. Furthermore, attacks are substantially easier to do: the agents aren’t necessarily hazardous to humans; delivery systems are readily available and unsophisticated; maximum effect may only require a few cases; delivery from outside the target country is possible; and an effective attack can be constructed to appear natural. This constellation of characteristics makes biological attack on the agricultural sector of at least some countries a very real threat, perhaps more so than attack on the civilian population.

Agricultural corporations, including producers, processors, and shippers, could benefit immensely from the economic impacts, market share changes, and financial market effects of a successful biological attack. Many also employ expert plant pathologists or veterinarians and have large collections of pathogens. The combination of motivation, expertise, and materials within a single, closed organization is worrisome.

Source: Agricultural Biowarfare and Bioterrorism

Besides H5N1 bird flu, numerous other diseases are positioned to go pandemic. These diseases are similar to bird flu - they are not only airborne, but have multiple vectors.

"We are playing the odds in a sense," said Dr. Edgar Jimenez, director of critical care for Orlando Regional Medical Center. "Yes, we are worried about avian flu, but we're worried about epidemics in general. Avian flu could happen, but we could just as easily be facing a threat from something else."

Whether or not avian flu triggers a pandemic, health experts agree that some rare influenza virus will emerge eventually and cause a worldwide outbreak.

Reuters reports that South Asia is defenseless against bird flu. Authorities warn that once the virus takes hold in any country - developed or not - it is almost impossible to eradicate.

H5N1 bird flu probably is persistent because it spreads in bodily fluids via multiple vectors including feed and water.

Bird flu is spreading across one of the most crowded places on earth and, far from being brought under control, looks almost certain to remain a long-term menace in South Asian poultry, officials say.

Since February, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Myanmar have culled hundreds of thousands of chickens and shut poultry farms, yet the virus has kept spreading to new areas.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) and some Indian officials say that once the virus takes hold in any country - developed or not - it is just about impossible to eradicate. ...While officials might feel a sense of crisis, the reaction of many ordinary people is slowly turning from panic to cautious resignation.

Lots of good information, the only problem that I have is that as always you try to claim that the virus was engineered in a laboratory and released somehow....

Just like you claim in the original post that "the 1918 flu was introduced into American soldiers and convicts via mass vaccinations." Then you give a link which talks about the 1918 flu pandemic yet it does not say at all that it was "introduced via mass vaccinations."

Conditions for soldiers to be always in good health in the 1910s weren't perfect, but the conditions in which they trained, how, and where they lived, etc ,were perfect for the growth and spread of viruses, bacteria, funguses, etc, etc.

If you would have been in the military, you would know that now there are some measures taken trying to avoid such epidemics/pandemics. Such as taking showers with sandals on, because if one recruit/soldier has athlete's foot, or any funguses, and every soldier takes a shower in the same place, many of them will catch the fungus, if not all. It is not a deliberate act of anyone in the military for the soldiers to catch any fungus.

In the same manner mass production of farm animals, such as chickens, are the perfect ground for the spread and mutation of viruses.

There are many types of lethal bacteria and viruses which can be found in the air, water or soil which has been produced naturally (by nature). Chemicals released by humans, or the right conditions and with enough people/animals catching the bacteria or virus, this can mutate into something worse.

Now imagine hundreds of thousands of chickens together, eating, poohing, sleeping together and one of them has a virus. Soon enough they will all catch it and the virus could mutate into something else in one or several of the chickens because there might be a slight difference in the chicken's immune system which allows the bacteria or virus to mutate into a lethal strain.

Have there been genetically manipulated viruses? yes, but that doesn't mean that H5N1 was one such bioengineered virus.

Why didn't the virus mutate into the strain H5N1 in Scotland? It seems more probable that the conditions in which poultry are raised en mass in China, is the cause for the mutation of the virus into this strain.

I also think that you don't seem to understand that what those scientists which you are quoting are saying is "not" that the virus was bioengineered in a lab, but that the mutation was caused by the conditions in which poultry, are being bred en mass.

But then again i could be wrong and I could have read wrong some of the statements you quoted.

[edit on 17-4-2006 by Muaddib]

Drive-through Medical Exams for Bird Flu

In the event of a bird flu outbreak, U.S. money could be produced overseas and Americans checked in drive-through medical exams for signs of infection, according to government plans being finalized.

Federal officials say the first case of bird flu could show up in the United States in the coming weeks or months as birds migrate from overseas.

The plan assumes a worst-case scenario that as many as 90 million people in the U.S. would become sick and 2 million would die during a worldwide flu pandemic.

U.S. Prepares Plan for Drive-Thru Bird Flu Exams

Mauddib - all of the things you and I mentioned are factors. There is no doubt that viruses have been genetically engineered, both purposefully and accidentally. There is no doubt some have escaped the laboratory, if not released purposefully. There is no doubt that these and other factors work together to create new mutations.

IMO - we are dealing with the predictable interplay of bioweapons, accidents, nature, bad decision-making, greed, opportunism and profiteering. And it's out of control.


.

Originally posted by soficrow

Tuesday's headlines announced that H5N1 antibodies from horses successfuly treated bird flu in mice, and could potentially be used for treating humans. Then, headlines on Wednesday said a bird flu outbreak could end horse events at the 2008 Olympics. Now, authorities insist there is "no evidence to date that horses could catch the virus."

So if horses can't get bird flu, how do they make antibodies?

.....................

Well, if it is true that horses can't get the virus it means there is something in their immune system which makes them resistant to the virus.

If this is true, and that which is making horses resistant to the virus can be found, and if it can be isolated and extracted, this could be used to make vaccines for humans, or even chickens.

Seems to me that horses get H5N1 bird flu but manufacture antibodies that fight it effectively. ...They have to get it to make antibodies...

Originally posted by soficrow
...........
IMO - we are dealing with the predictable interplay of bioweapons, accidents, nature, bad decision-making, greed, opportunism and profiteering. And it's out of control.

That may be your opinion but doesn't make it the truth.

i don't know what the truth is either, but I do know this much. The virus did not mutate into a lethal strain in Scotland, it only mutated into H5N1 in China, so the most probable explanation is that the conditions in which chickens are bred en mass in China caused the virus to mutate into the H5N1 strain.

i am not even so sure anymore that the Chinese could have engineered the virus, if they did so why was it released among their own population?

i used to think it was engineered in China, but after more research this doesn't seem to be the case.

Again, i could be wrong.

[edit on 17-4-2006 by Muaddib]

Originally posted by Muaddib

Originally posted by soficrow
...........
IMO - we are dealing with the predictable interplay of bioweapons, accidents, nature, bad decision-making, greed, opportunism and profiteering. And it's out of control.

That may be your opinion but doesn't make it the truth.

True, but it's a truly inclusive position.

The virus did not mutate into a lethal strain in Scotland, it only mutated into H5N1 in China,

In fact, H5N1 bird flu was discovered in chickens in Scotland in 1959 where it was isolated and used in experiments.

H5N1 is a Type A influenza virus, able to infect a wide variety of species without acquiring new genetic material, including birds, fish, whales, humans and other mammals. Birds and whales both migrate, and flu viruses mutate constantly, which means H5N1 has been circulating around the world and mutating for almost 50 years. Scientists have been monitoring H5N1 and warning authorities about it for decades.

so the most probable explanation is that the conditions in which chickens are bred en mass in China caused the virus to mutate into the H5N1 strain.

Hmmm. You are describing Western style monoculture and factory farming.

Seems most likely that H5N1 per se started in the West, probably with humans, spread to fish via wastewater flushing into waterways, to domestic poultry in feed made from ground up contaminated fish, to migratory birds from poultry waste and only then back to domestic poultry. This is what experts like Germany’s Reichholf say.

...the entry of faeces from infected poultry into the food chain via fish was a likely cause of the global spread of bird flu - and not migrating wild birds.

'We are moving away from the assumption that migrating birds are the cause,' said Josef H. Reichholf, a zoology professor at Munich's Technical University, in a comment published by the newspaper Die Welt.

'We will have to live with bird flu in the future,' said Reichholf, adding: 'Perhaps we already have been for years and just didn't know it because ...dead birds ...were not tested.'

***

The virus may be spreading through contaminated feed, Munich-based ornithologist Josef Reichholf said, according to Focus magazine.

i am not even so sure anymore that the Chinese could have engineered the virus, if they did so why was it released among their own population?

i used to think it was engineered in China, but after more research this doesn't seem to be the case.

The WHO has issued reports for years confirming that H5N1 bird flu absolutely did NOT originate in China.

H5N1 bird flu appears to be a perfect agricultural bioweapon, of the sort used in corporate warfare.

International corporate industry has a great deal to gain from destroying the developing world's poultry industry - and the destruction is well on the way.

Anti-agricultural biowarfare and bioterrorism differ significantly from the same activities directed against humans; for instance, there exist a variety of possibilities for economic gain for perpetrators, and the list of possible perpetrators includes corporations, which may have state-of-the-art technical expertise. Furthermore, attacks are substantially easier to do: the agents aren’t necessarily hazardous to humans; delivery systems are readily available and unsophisticated; maximum effect may only require a few cases; delivery from outside the target country is possible; and an effective attack can be constructed to appear natural. This constellation of characteristics makes biological attack on the agricultural sector of at least some countries a very real threat, perhaps more so than attack on the civilian population.

Agricultural corporations, including producers, processors, and shippers, could benefit immensely from the economic impacts, market share changes, and financial market effects of a successful biological attack. Many also employ expert plant pathologists or veterinarians and have large collections of pathogens. The combination of motivation, expertise, and materials within a single, closed organization is worrisome.

Source: Agricultural Biowarfare and Bioterrorism

i was wrong about where the H5N1 virus first appeared, but again where is the proof that it was developed by corporations and drug companies?

the article which you link clearly says

The avian flu virus which has swept across the globe originated on a farm in Aberdeen in 1959, say academics.
Picture: Daniel Mihailescu/AFP/Getty Images

it appears that it originated in a farm, it wasn't an engineered biological weapon. Although the article does say that the strain was taken for experiments, nothing is said about what sort of experiments were done.

It took 46 years for the strain to mutate to even a dealier form, if it had been bioengineered into the present form, why did it take so long for this to occur?

Sofi, there are several theories floating around about this.

Perhaps you have heard of Dr. Sherri Tenpenny, although she does say that bird flu is benefitting drug companies, she says that according to her own research it is just a scare.

There are several different experts who agree and disagree with each other on bird flu.

The following is also interesting.

www.drrathresearch.org...

If the experts can't even agree, how can you say you know what the truth is on bird flu?

[edit on 18-4-2006 by Muaddib]

Originally posted by Muaddib

If the experts can't even agree, how can you say you know what the truth is on bird flu?

Mauddib - I collect information and I think. I don't say I know "the truth."

I simply state the obvious, with a qualifier like "it seems" or "apparently."

I am not clear where your problem lies. ...