EXCLUSIVE: Spin and Counterspin: New Bird Flu Mutation has 91% Fatality Rate in Humans

posted by Odium

The point I was trying to make, Sofi, is how primarily H5N1, H1N1, H2N2 and the H3N2 have primarily killed off those who were in Nation's with weaker infrastructure. If you go through the historic records since the Russian Flu of 1889-1890 [H2N2] and then follow it up to the present H5N1, this is the primary link.

Also, the rate of death can directly reflect this, when you compare the Russian Influenza Pandemic and the Spanish Flu Pandemic. The books I have on the issue, seem to show a direct correlation between the region/quality of living and the fatalities - for example, Brevig where 85% of the population died when compaired with London which had no where near that level of fatalities - giving an estimated 20% of the World's Population and only 2.5% to 5% of those with it, dying from it.[1]

You are right - good food, clean uncontaminated water and fresh air go a long way towards protecting individuals' and nations' health. And it does take money to buy these things.

However, "a study by economists concluded that mortality rates appear to be randomly distributed and do not seem to be related to the level of economic development, climate or geography" (Brainerd and Seigler, 2003, "The Economics of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Paper 3791 ).

Weather - especially humidity - was found to be the most important factor influencing death rates in the USA, for example.

How the 1981 virus diffused within the United States is an "abiding puzzle" (Kolata 1990;62). The states with the highest excess mortality rates - Pennsylvania, Montana, Maryland and Colorado - "had little in common economically or demographically" (Crosby 1989; 66).

...St. Paul's death rate was 70% higher than that in neighboring Minneapolis, and Dayton, Ohio's death rate was 80% higher than in Columbus.

...Only weather appears to have had any fundamental significance in causing the destructiveness of the epidemic to vary from city to city. In particular, the relative humidity rate around the time of the infections was cited as the most important factor.

Source: (PDF) March, 2000: Is the 1918 Pandemic Over?

As for those without Health Insurance in the United State's, that is the sad state of affairs for the richest Nation - when they do not take care of their poor. Who will be the most at risk of this oncoming problem. Although, one reason as to why Older People might not be catching it/dying from it, is due to previous pandemics. I can think of which they have lived through which are very similar to the present one.

Despite infrastructure and health insurance - there simply are not enough ventilators for everyone who might be infected in a pandemic.

And trust me - providing scarce ventilators to Blue Cross carriers - never mind Medicare recipients - will NOT be the first priority.

As I stated above, I do think older people have acquired immunities. See above and Why does the H5N1 virus attack the young?



Your comments are good and highlight a number of common misapprehensions.

But they do beg the questions of a) mode of transmission and the resultant different symptoms; and b) long term impacts in survivors. I agree with you that fatalities will not be our biggest problem. But this flu is more like AIDS than the flu - with the added although minimal danger of acute and deadly presentation with respiratory transmission.

I think that the real crisis will appear in the form of progressive chronic illness and long term disability in survivors who "recover" from this flu, or are in utero when their mothers are infected.

While the 1918 flu was transmitted by the respiratory route, and this flu is primarily gastro at present, I think we can assume that the long terms impacts will be similar. Aside from death, long term impacts may reveal themselves slowly, but they are significant, and do not respect socio-economic boundaries. For example:

Fetal health is found to impact nearly every socioeconomic outcome recorded in the 1960, 1970 and 1980 Censuses. Men and women show large and discontinuous reductions in educational attainment in they had been in uteroduring the Pandemic. The children of infected mothers were fifteen percent less likely to graduate from high school. Wages of men were 5 to 7% lower due to infection. Socioeconomic status was substantially reduced and the likelihood of being poor rose as much as 15% compared with other cohorts. ...birth cohorts ...in utero at the height of the Pandemic ...are estimated to have 20% higher disability rates at age 61 as a result of fetal influenza exposure.

This broad range of socioeconomic impacts is found among men, women, whites and non-whites alike.

Source: (PDF) Long Term Effects of In Utero Influenza Exposure in the Post-1940 U.S. Population

Also as stated above, research shows that chronic disease does not just cause debilitation and disabnility, it also confers immunities - IMO - evidence that we are adapting.


PS. I take responsibility for typos in the quotes - had to transcribe from pdf. Yuck. Am lousy typist. But some of my best sources can't be copied and pasted.

I posted earlier about the new Weather Modification Bill being fast tracked through the Senate and House. It is not clear why the Bill is being fast tracked - or why weather modification is suddenly considered to be urgent...

U.S. Senate Bill 517 and U.S. House Bill 2995, a bill that would allow experimental weather modification by artificial methods and implement a national weather modification policy, does not include agriculture or public oversight, is on the "fast track" to be passed early in 2006. ...This bill is designed to implement experimental weather modification. The appointed Board of Directors established by this bill does not include any agricultural, water, EPA, or public representatives, and has no provisions for Congressional, State, County, or public oversight of their actions or expenditures.

Experimental Weather Modification Bill Fast Tracking

BUT - Scientists point out that weather can impact bird flu - and that weather modifications could speed the pandemic.

Gil Smolin, an Avian Bird Flu expert, noted on the Ron Owens Show on KGO Radio (January 5, 2006), that the flu was spread more quickly in the winter when there was a "lack of sunlight". Would man-made clouds be contributing to the lack of sunlight which might cause the Avian Bird flu to spread more quickly at other times of the year? Experimental weather modification programs could also exacerbate this problem by changing climate patterns, increasing man-made cloud cover, and changing our weather and climate patterns.

Fast Tracking the Weather Modification Bill

Weather - in particular, humidity - is the key factor in bird flu's spread and severity.

...Only weather appears to have had any fundamental significance in causing the destructiveness of the epidemic to vary from city to city. In particular, the relative humidity rate around the time of the infections was cited as the most important factor.

(PDF) March, 2000: Is the 1918 Pandemic Over?

My questions: Why is it suddenly so urgent to modify the weather? Why does the Bill need to be fast tracked?

And what happens if the weather is modified to create rain to grow crops - but incidentally exacerbates a bird flu outbreak and causes a pile of deaths?

Or what if the weather is modified to prevent rain and humidity to stop bird flu - and incidentally causes crop failures and famine?

What if the rain and humidity gets "modified" and pushed out of the USA into Canada or Mexico, causing outbreaks and fatalities there? Or in Cuba? Or Central America?

WHY do these guys suddenly want to change the weather? What are they looking to accomplish? What's on their agenda? What are their priorities? And why it is suddenly so urgent?

The new bird flu vaccine is not very good - the vaccine did not "take" in half the test subjects, even though they were given mega-doses. By comparison, vaccines normally are effective in between 75% and 90% of subjects vaccinated.

The headlines and coverage have changed dramatically over the past day. Early headlines said "New bird flu vaccine falls short," and "Bird Flu Vaccine Only Partly Effective," but the most recent headlines put a positive spin on the bad news, saying "Bird flu vaccine shows some promise."

New bird flu vaccine falls short

The federal government has developed a human vaccine against the H5N1 bird flu, but it is only moderately effective, hard to make, and probably not protective against emerging strains of the fearsome virus.

The new vaccine, produced by Sanofi Pasteur in Swiftwater, Pa., under a $150 million government contract, is "a small step" toward being prepared for a possible global flu epidemic, said Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which funded the vaccine research.

A study of the vaccine published in Thursday's New England Journal of Medicine found that it stimulated a meaningful immune response only about half the time - and only in healthy adults given two high doses over 28 days. In contrast, a single low-dose seasonal flu shot is 75 to 90 percent effective.

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1st Bird-Flu Vaccine Only Partly Effective

The nation's first vaccine against bird flu is only modestly effective, producing apparent protection in slightly over half the people who receive two mega-dose shots, initial testing shows. The worrisome findings underscore the urgency of brewing a better vaccine.

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Bird-Flu Vaccine Only Partly Effective

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Bird Flu Vaccine Test Results Mixed

The results of the first human testing, published Wednesday in The New England Journal of Medicine, show the extent of the problem: The vaccine sparked a protective immune response in disappointingly few people - 54 percent of those who got two shots, 28 days apart, of the highest dose.


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Positive Spin: Bird flu vaccine shows some promise, scientists say

CHICAGO - The first major test of an experimental vaccine being stockpiled against the possibility of a bird flu pandemic found that it triggers protective immune responses in about half of the healthy adults who were given a high dose.

Tuesday's headlines announced that H5N1 antibodies from horses successfuly treated bird flu in mice, and could potentially be used for treating humans. Then, headlines on Wednesday said a bird flu outbreak could end horse events at the 2008 Olympics. Now, authorities insist there is "no evidence to date that horses could catch the virus."

So if horses can't get bird flu, how do they make antibodies?

Horse antibodies used in treatment of H5N1 bird flu virus

Antibodies against the bird flu virus H5N1, derived from horses, prevent mice infected with H5N1 from dying from the virus. ...A study published today in the open access journal Respiratory Research reveals that a dose of 100 ug of horse anti-serum effectively protects infected mice.

These results suggest that anti-H5N1 antibodies developed in horses could potentially be used to prevent death from H5N1 influenza, or as early treatment for the disease, in humans.

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Flu outbreak could end horse events at Olympics

A bird flu outbreak could spell the end of equestrian event at the 2008 Olympics, a Hong Kong official has been reported as saying. ...York Chow, Hong Kong's Health, Food and Welfare Secretary, added that there was...

no evidence to date that horses could catch the virus.

Information is censored by special interests to maximize their profits.

Sucks to be an ignorant consumer, don't it?

Originally posted by soficrow
Unlike most flu, this bird flu strikes young, healthy people far more often than the already-sick and elderly - indicating that it has been around for a long while, and that the sick and elderly have acquired immunity.

Soficrow, I gave you a WATS for your article, excellent research
One thought about your above statement: I'm sure it's been around awhile, but could it also be that the older folks have acquired immunity from other related forms of flu?

BTW, my husband, who was a virologist/biologist read your article and said it was all perfectly accurate information and made sense. I don't know if you are a doctor, scientist or the like, but if not and you're a layperson who does independent research, well that's even more impressive! THanks for spending so much time on this important issue. I have really been in the dark about how serious this flu loooked. I think you've proven that this could indeed be a horrendous epidemic.
I would like to also add that the Army's survival guide is an excellent resource for any emergency or survival plan. It tells about how to identify plants in the wild, how to survive a blizzard, how to forage for food when you have none. Also get a really herbal book and start growing herbs!
Dandelion greens, which are a common weed, are one of the best things you can eat, it cleans your liver, kidneys and blood. ESSIAC is a blend of 4 herbs (you can find recipe on Google) that will greatly strengthen your immune system and you can grow all 4 herbs yourself. It was originally used to dissolve cancerous tumors, but it also helps the immune system be stronger.

-Forestlady

Originally posted by forestlady

Originally posted by soficrow
Unlike most flu, this bird flu strikes young, healthy people far more often than the already-sick and elderly - indicating that it has been around for a long while, and that the sick and elderly have acquired immunity.

Soficrow, I gave you a WATS for your article, excellent research

One thought about your above statement: I'm sure it's been around awhile, but could it also be that the older folks have acquired immunity from other related forms of flu?

Thank you. ...Yes, I do think older peoples' acquired immunity likely comes from other related forms of flu. Flu viruses constantly mutate - which is one reason why getting a "little" sick each season is actually a good thing to do. You stay ahead of the game.

Immunity to one flu does NOT necessarily confer to immunity to others - but many are related. This flu is not the same as it was even 10 years ago - and it seems to be mutating more quickly now.

However - I do strongly believe that most of us will have enough immunity to prevent it from being fatal. Which does not mean it will not be really disruptive, just hopefully not as bad as the worst case scenarios...

BTW, my husband, who was a virologist/biologist read your article and said it was all perfectly accurate information and made sense.

Very cool. And thanks for telling me. I am a layperson - got into bird flu and Mad Cow because I was researching a disease I have called "fibromuscular dysplasia." ...Four years later, and having had to learn the basics of genetics, molecular biology...

I would like to also add that the Army's survival guide is an excellent resource for any emergency or survival plan. It tells about how to identify plants in the wild, how to survive a blizzard, how to forage for food when you have none. Also get a really herbal book and start growing herbs!
Dandelion greens, which are a common weed, are one of the best things you can eat, it cleans your liver, kidneys and blood. ESSIAC is a blend of 4 herbs (you can find recipe on Google) that will greatly strengthen your immune system and you can grow all 4 herbs yourself. It was originally used to dissolve cancerous tumors, but it also helps the immune system be stronger.

-Forestlady

GREAT info. Thanks.

Is the Army Survival Guide on the net? ...and BTW I agree - Essiac is great.


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New model says California is where it all begins. Wonder if that is fear propaganda news targeted at the hispanic protestors, blackops aims to release a strain there, or the model is accurate? Strange coincidence to say the least and it would take the wind right out of the illegals fanfare, if avain flu broke out in SoCal..



I would of guessed Florida or Washington state. Hmmmm.....

Originally posted by Regenmacher
New model says California is where it all begins. ...
I would of guessed Florida or Washington state. Hmmmm.....

If the flu comes with migratory birds, it will come on the flyways through Alaska and Washington/Michigan etc.

BUT - if it's spread by people and originates in Asia, then it will enter through Hawaii/California. People-spread is more dangerous - and more likely if the flu mutates into a form that is transmitted more easily person-to-person.

Are they saying they expect it to mutate and get to SoCal before the spring migrations? (Can't see it.)


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Originally posted by soficrow
BUT - if it's spread by people and originates in Asia, then it will enter through Hawaii/California. People-spread is more dangerous - and more likely if the flu mutates into a form that is transmitted more easily person-to-person.

Another coincidence is they say it will be spread by children which happen to be walking out of of SoCal schools to protest.

There is a large Asian population in Seattle and lnumerous ports also, but I was thinking birds will bring it into the US first and not humans. Of what I read, they indicated it will be this fall when the flu season begins.

They said some 60,000 birds, mostly waterfowl, would begin their migration south from Alaska in mid-August, working their way down through Oregon, Washington and into California. reuters

My tinfoil hat spidey senses are always gnawing at me to think they plan to release a virulent strain for population reduction and control purposes and all this news is a heads up to the master plan. Then my hat falls off and I say, "naaah that can't be true".

[edit on 31-3-2006 by Regenmacher]

Originally posted by Regenmacher

... they say it will be spread by children which happen to be walking out of of SoCal schools to protest.

A factor once it's already present.

... I was thinking birds will bring it into the US first and not humans. Of what I read, they indicated it will be this fall when the flu season begins.

They said some 60,000 birds, mostly waterfowl, would begin their migration south from Alaska in mid-August, working their way down through Oregon, Washington and into California. reuters

The media has been focusing on migratory birds - but it's kind of a red herring.

First of all, scientists are not convinced at all that migrating birds are the primary culprit behind bird flu's spread through Eurasia and Africa; feed and water look like more important vectors of transmission.

Second, the human factor is incredibly important, likely much more so than migrating birds, and far faster.


DJ Livestock Update: US Doctor: Bird Flu May Arrive By Plane

Bird flu fear: Spread at jet speed

Bird flu generally spreads to people through contact with bird excretions. The fear, though, is that it will mutate into a disease that spreads from human to human.

***

Israel suspects journalists of spreading bird flu

Israel suspects journalists, particularly press photographers, of being behind the spread of deadly bird flu in the Jewish state, an agriculture ministry official told Agence France-Presse. ..."It's one of our working hypotheses," the official said, asking not be identified.

"Bird flu can be transmitted on clothing, footwear, the wheels of cars and even on cameras," the official added. ..."The journalists who came to cover the outbreak then went back to homes and offices across the country.

"Even if the required protective measures were taken, it is impossible to disinfect photographic equipment without damaging it."

Worth reading, outlines the two main camps saying "crisis is upon us" and "nothing much to worry about": Are we ready for bird flu?

My tinfoil hat spidey senses are always gnawing at me to think they plan to release a virulent strain for population reduction and control purposes and all this news is a heads up to the master plan. Then my hat falls off and I say, "naaah that can't be true".

I tend to agree with you. The difference is that I think it was already done, long ago. But the idiots didn't know what they were messing with and now it's all out of control. So at this point, we're dealing with natural processes of microbial mutation and evolution.

...I also think mistakes were made in trying to develop vaccines, which ended up creating new strains and spreading them. Which also are now mutating out of control and evolving.


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A new Pandemic has always been a question of when, not if....

That mortality rate is pretty damn scary...way eclipsing even the last pandemic... Fortunately though, I think our infrastructure and quality of life will be able to cope with it. The economist quoted as saying economic factors weren't an issue...may not have had enough info to go on with so few cases (in my book).....

As for weather control...I'd think that the recent Hurricanes, and the Tsunami could certainly be bigger driving factors, and of course, garner popular support now more than ever before....so the ones on this project seized the day and went for it....

Oh no, SofiCrow has exposed us all to birdflu!

Sofi, hats off for the incredible wealth of research in your post.

I've got one bone to pick though, and feel free to set me straight if I'm missing something.

I do not believe that a more lethal strain creates a greater chance of a jump to human-to-human transmission. It's all well and good to call it a "second evolutionary path" but that sounds like it was a custom-made soundbyte (i'm not implying that you're the one responsible).

As I understand it, the most likely medium for a jump is for a single person to be infected with both H5N1 and another strain which already passes human-to-human, and as a result end up with these two viral strains of DNA swapping code.

If that is correct, the probability of a human to human strain is a direct function of the total number and geographic distribution of bird and human flu cases.
A more lethal strain of birdflu would actually decrease the time window for a person to be infected with both, and the chances of a hybridized flu proliferating itself beyond the first victim.

For the more lethal strain to hybridize would definately be the sum of all fears, but I don't see any increase in probability. (Also, the increased lethality is assuming that 11 victims are enough to be statistically vaid, considering that medical care and prior health are factors)

Originally posted by The Vagabond

I do not believe that a more lethal strain creates a greater chance of a jump to human-to-human transmission. It's all well and good to call it a "second evolutionary path" ...

As I understand it, the most likely medium for a jump is for a single person to be infected with both H5N1 and another strain which already passes human-to-human, and as a result end up with these two viral strains of DNA swapping code.

You're right - it's not the lethality that makes the new variant more dangerous, it's the fact that a second genetic path has been created.

IMO - this stuff has been mixing and matching, and cross-breeding and hybridizing for decades. That's why it's approaching the crisis point now.

If that is correct, the probability of a human to human strain is a direct function of the total number and geographic distribution of bird and human flu cases.

Absolutely - which is why the recent spread over 30 countries is of such concern.

A more lethal strain of birdflu would actually decrease the time window for a person to be infected with both, and the chances of a hybridized flu proliferating itself beyond the first victim.

That's assuming it's quickly fatal - and the speed of progression to fatality is not that clear. People may be harboring the virus - and transmitting it for a while - before they succomb.

Again - IMO - the stats are skewed and inaccurate. I suspect there are a far greater number of cases that remain undiagnosed because they are not acute.

For the more lethal strain to hybridize would definately be the sum of all fears, but I don't see any increase in probability.

The increased probability comes from the new genetic pathway, not the increased lethality.


BTW - Thank you.


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Originally posted by Gazrok

A new Pandemic has always been a question of when, not if....

Agreed. Several diseases are poised to go pandemic. Bird flu is just the current focus. If it's not H5N1 bird flu, it will be something else.

Like AIDS, bird flu spreads via bodily fluids. Unlike AIDS, it can stay alive in the environment up to 200 days - plus, it spreads in water and also, can be airborne.

Many other new diseases and new mutations of old diseases also are now both waterborne and airborne. This is a real problem in hospitals because these germs have a way of getting into the air circulation and water supply.

Contending with Waterborne and Airborne Pathogens

I think our infrastructure and quality of life will be able to cope with it.

Pandemic threats have been looming for several years, but the USA is not prepared. The infrastructure is totally lacking - there aren't enough hospital beds for a pandemic, never mind ventilators. Budget cutbacks over the past several years hit the medical system hard, like they have cut other "social services." Here's a quick and dirty overview.

Bird-Flu Pandemic, Even Mild, May Overwhelm Hospitals

The famous 1918 Spanish flu that killed 50 million people isn't the only pandemic that caused a global health crisis in the past century. Two other pandemics, though much milder than the more well-known one, also strained national health-care systems, researchers say.

... If the current wave of bird flu turns into a human infection that is only as widespread and deadly as the one in 1968, the American health-care system will be severely tested, said Nancy Cox, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's influenza branch in Atlanta. ``Emergency rooms would be overflowing, doctors offices would be overflowing and hospital beds would be overflowing,'' she said March 20.

...said Bern, who founded the American College of Emergency Physicians' disaster medicine section. ...Emergency care in the U.S. is "like a house of cards, ...waiting for a big wind to collapse it." ...said Nathaniel Hupert, assistant professor of public health and medicine at Weill Cornell Medical College in New York. ..."Our U.S. hospital system gets crushed in a normal flu year,"...

***

Of 167 government workers across eight federal departments, 44% don't know how they should react to a flu emergency according to a poll by Telework Exchange, an online forum trying to quantify how much teleworking goes on in the federal government.

A survey last month of 300 Minnesota business officials found most thought a flu pandemic would significantly affect their businesses, but only 18% had preparedness plans in place. The poll, sponsored by the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, found that close to two-thirds of respondents said they were prepared or somewhat prepared to move employees to remote locations or let them work at home, while 29% said they were not prepared.

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...emergency service officials said that in the event of an disaster, local safety agencies would be limited in their ability to help the tens of thousands of people who might be injured by an earthquake, a flood, a wildfire or even an avian flu pandemic. Because of limitations, they stressed the importance of self-education through research, and provided Internet Web sites for information on how to stock a household emergency kit and other important preparedness tips.

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...Indiana Prepares, the Pandemic Influenza State Summit, was simulcast around the state, aiming to give public officials, volunteers and private citizens information to help their communities prepare. ...Should a pandemic come, and experts say it’s a statistical eventuality, “It’s going to affect everyone, everywhere, at the same time,”

...it’s important not to underestimate the consequences of being left without basic services such as water, electricity and communications that a pandemic might bring.

***

On a hypothetical scale of 1 to 10, top emergency preparedness experts Friday gave Long Island and the nation as a whole middling scores if pandemic influenza were to strike the human population today.

Brian O'Neill, vice president for emergency services at North Shore-Long Island Jewish Health System, also answered Balboni's question. He gave local and state efforts "less than a five" even as he praised New York as the first to roll out a state pandemic plan.

O'Neill also cited the lack of an effective vaccine and too few ventilators on Long Island. "We've begun to work with the [state] Department of Health on surge capacity," he said of plans for immediate response to outbreak.

Although there is little point trying to get to a hospital for emergency care, actually getting there may be a problem for many. If you think rush hour traffic is bad...

...the bridge is a “bottleneck” as well as a potential endangerment.

If the bridge was blocked in an emergency, anyone east of it would not have ready access to Dearborn County Hospital for emergency medical care and would have to seek it in Kentucky or Ohio, said Neff.

The bridge represents the only means of crossing Tanners Creek into the southern and midwestern areas of Dearborn County

US Health and Human Services top guy Mike Leavitt is touring the US and telling all states, communities and families they're on their own with a pandemic because the infrastructure is NOT able to cope. Says Leavitt:

..."any community that fails to prepare - with the expectation that the federal government can offer a lifeline - will be tragically wrong."

...To assist local efforts, HHS is holding planning summits in all 50 states and providing checklists to local and state governments, businesses, schools, home health care providers, faith-based and community organizations and individuals and families.

The economist quoted as saying economic factors weren't an issue...may not have had enough info to go on with so few cases (in my book).....

Several reports were referenced, representing a comprehensive overview of the 1918 pandemic in the USA - the largest pandemic in modern history. The death rate was approximately 2% compared with H5N1 bird flu's fatality rate of 50%-91%.


Again, "a study by economists concluded that mortality rates appear to be randomly distributed and do not seem to be related to the level of economic development, climate or geography" (Brainerd and Seigler, 2003, "The Economics of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Paper 3791 ).

Weather - especially humidity - was found to be the most important factor influencing death rates in the USA, for example.

How the 1981 virus diffused within the United States is an "abiding puzzle" (Kolata 1990;62). The states with the highest excess mortality rates - Pennsylvania, Montana, Maryland and Colorado - "had little in common economically or demographically" (Crosby 1989; 66).

...St. Paul's death rate was 70% higher than that in neighboring Minneapolis, and Dayton, Ohio's death rate was 80% higher than in Columbus.

...Only weather appears to have had any fundamental significance in causing the destructiveness of the epidemic to vary from city to city. In particular, the relative humidity rate around the time of the infections was cited as the most important factor.

Source: (PDF) March, 2000: Is the 1918 Pandemic Over?

As for weather control...I'd think that the recent Hurricanes, and the Tsunami could certainly be bigger driving factors, and of course, garner popular support now more than ever before....so the ones on this project seized the day and went for it....

Your comments beg the issues.

H5N1 bird flu is spread via bodily fluids; it is also waterborne and airborne. Humidity is identified as the single most critical factor related to spread of the 1918 bird flu pandemic - and the 1918 bird flu had similar characteristics to H5N1.

Mucking around with weather modifications under the circumstances is beyond irresponsible - whatever the motivation.

We are handing over trillions and trillions of our hard earned dollars - a couple billion every single day - so the boyz can get new toys and kill us, on purpose, or accidentally because they don't know how to play responsibly.

Enough already. Time for a time out.



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[edit on 1-4-2006 by soficrow]

Sofi, I don't know where this "second genetic path" thing came from, but that's exactly what I am challenging.

The total number of birdflu cases will now be x, which is composed of y original and z new strain cases.

The value of x is not increased, merely devided between two different strains, neither of which has been demonstrated as materially closer to being human-to-human communicable.

Therefore if we have agreed that the chance of hybridizing to human-to-human transmission is a function of the number of birdflu cases total (x, which hasn't been changed by the development of a more letal strain) and the total number and distribution of human flu cases, also unchanged by this development, then the existence of a so called "second genetic path" has no detectable ability to increase the statistical probability of bird flu and human flu hybridizing into a human-to-human transmitted version of H5N1.

I think you're lending too much credence to media soundbytes. The Media is GREAT at this- they don't exactly tell a lie, they just make an irrelevant fact sound ominous.

This is exactly how the news on Operation Swarmer got so twisted.

Originally posted by The Vagabond
Sofi, I don't know where this "second genetic path" thing came from, but that's exactly what I am challenging.

Your sources?

From Rebecca Garten, of the US Centres for Disease Control and Surveillance (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia, and John Wood, a virologist at the National Institute for Biological Standards and Control in Hertfordshire:

An analysis of more than 300 samples of the H5N1 virus taken from humans and birds has revealed that its family tree has started to branch out in a way that could make it more threatening to people. ...the changes are worrying because they show that the virus is increasing in genetic diversity. ...It will also make it more difficult for scientists to monitor the way that the virus is changing, so as to track potentially dangerous mutations.

“Back in 2003 we only had one genetically distinct population of H5N1 with the potential to cause a human pandemic. Now we have two.” ...“The more mutations that are seen, the more the virus is able to mutate, the greater the chances of the virus changing.”

...Influenza viruses are separated into strains, which are labelled according to the particular versions of two proteins that they carry - haemagluttinin (H) and neuraminidase (N). ...These strains are then subdivided into genetic groups called genotypes, and some genotypes can be separated further into smaller units called clades.

Bird flu mutation 'adds to threat of human pandemic'

The total number of birdflu cases will now be x, which is composed of y original and z new strain cases.

The value of x is not increased, merely devided between two different strains, neither of which has been demonstrated as materially closer to being human-to-human communicable.

Therefore if we have agreed that the chance of hybridizing to human-to-human transmission is a function of the number of birdflu cases total (x, which hasn't been changed by the development of a more letal strain) and the total number and distribution of human flu cases, also unchanged by this development, then the existence of a so called "second genetic path" has no detectable ability to increase the statistical probability of bird flu and human flu hybridizing into a human-to-human transmitted version of H5N1.

Hmm. Not quite sure I catch your drift.

Probabilities and math aside, bird flu spread to over 30 countries in last few weeks. Most of the human cases - and deaths - have occurred during this time.

"The geographic expansion this year has been, I think, greater and worse than most of us could have expected,"' said Malik Peiris, professor of microbiology at the University of Hong Kong. ..."It is certainly a cause for concern because the more areas where humans keep on getting challenged by this virus, the more chance there is for the virus to adapt for human transmission,'' Peiris said in a telephone interview today.

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WHO Cumulative Figures.

March 24, 2006: 186 Cases; 105 Deaths.
March 1, 2006: 174 Cases; 94 Deaths.
January 30, 2006:160 Cases; 85 Deaths.
December 30, 2005: 142 Cases; 74 Deaths.
January 28, 2004: 11 Cases; 8 Deaths.

I think you're lending too much credence to media soundbytes. The Media is GREAT at this- they don't exactly tell a lie, they just make an irrelevant fact sound ominous.

I lurk at PubMed and respected medical journals. Then I look for mainstream media articles on the research I find relevant.

Where do you get your information?

I agree that panic is counterproductive but then again, so is ignorance.


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Originally posted by soficrow
Your sources?

Common sense. If I get it point blank and period from an authority that having another strain increases the statistical probability of the same person getting both human and birdflu, thereby creating the chance for a human-to-human hybrid, then I have to respect that. So far, I don't see authoritative testimony to that effect, only interpretations of authorities who haven't explicitly said that.

An analysis of more than 300 samples of the H5N1 virus taken from humans and birds has revealed that its family tree has started to branch out in a way that could make it more threatening to people.

Yes, increased lethality means more harmful to humans. Says nothing about human-to-human transmission.

...the changes are worrying because they show that the virus is increasing in genetic diversity. ...It will also make it more difficult for scientists to monitor the way that the virus is changing, so as to track potentially dangerous mutations.

Again, this is dangerous, but has nothing to do with human to human transmission.

“Back in 2003 we only had one genetically distinct population of H5N1 with the potential to cause a human pandemic. Now we have two.” ...“The more mutations that are seen, the more the virus is able to mutate, the greater the chances of the virus changing.”

This is closer, but we have to be very careful about our interpretation. I read this as saying that the virus has shown a proclivity for mutation, which underscores the very realistic nature of the threat of a human to human hybrid.
This does not, however, say that each doubling of the number of variants results in a doubling of the odds of human-to-human transmission. The probability of human to human transmission can increase in several ways:
1. When a more infectious strain, which either transmits more easily, or surives longer outside the body is found to have developed.
2. When a strain with a longer in-body life (ie, keeps you alive longer) develops.
etc.
The ability to mutate means increased realization of stable potential to become human to human. The actual development of a strain which is materially closer to being human to human communicable, or the actual development of a strain that will increase the total number of cases will create an obvious increase in potential for mutation because you've got, as an evolutionary anecdote, "more monkeys and more typewriters".

The existence of new genotypes, notwithstanding new genotypes which have acquired features which further increase the capacity for proliferation or capacity for mutation, do not seem to have any way of making increasing the likelihood of increasing the chance of a human-to-human jump. In other words, only certain specific genotypes, if they were to develop, would necessarily increase the potential of the virus to become human to human. Short of the development of those specific genotypes with certain advantageous traits, only the number and geographic distribution of cases would really increase the likelihood of a mutation.

"It is certainly a cause for concern because the more areas where humans keep on getting challenged by this virus, the more chance there is for the virus to adapt for human transmission,'' Peiris said in a telephone interview today.

This is exactly my drift. The probability of a mutation is based on the number of cases, because each case represents more viral code out there having its own individual chance to mutate. The existence of new

I lurk at PubMed and respected medical journals. Then I look for mainstream media articles on the research I find relevant.

I don't see anything in your sources however which contradicts my claims. I respect your knowledge and your sources, but I suspect that you have interpreted some of it in the context of the media storm, in effect having certain bad assumptions presented to you by suggestion of the media.

Where do you get your information?

Simple common sense application of highschool biology, but I don't expect you to take that as gospel, so stand by for sources:

72.14.203.104/search

What health officials are worried about is bird flu acquiring the ability to spread easily from human to human.

There are two ways that this could happen: Viral reassortment and mutation.

In viral reassortment an avian-flu virus and a human-flu virus might infect the same host, a pig, bird or a human. If this happened the 2 virii could swap genes. Flu virii do this very easily. This gene switching could create an avian-flu virus that spreads easily between humans.

The avian-flu virus could also mutate on it’s own. Viral mutations occur all the time and are one of the reasons that new flu strains emerge each few years.

In fact the HPAI H5N1 virus has undergone huge genetic changes and has become far more pathogenic (disease causing) since it first emerged and can replicate (reproduce) far more effectively than a human-flu virus

So the odds of it becoming human to human by recombination are therefore directly reliant on the number of people infected, and the geographic proximity of these cases to outbreaks of human influenza.

Mutation is a constant to the best of my understanding. Mutation will either make it more communicable or not, but not every mutation necessarily increases the chance of an eventual mutation in favor of human to human transmission.

The articles I'm seeing indicate increased pathogenic potential and increased replication, but not an increased capacity for transmission or increased capacity for further mutation.

I'm not attempting to ignore the very real potential for this to become a pandemic, but to the best of my understanding there is nothing here to support the interpretation that these mutations have increased the probability of mutation to human to human, rather than simply highlighting an existing constant potential which may not have been fully appreciated before it demonstrated that, like most influenza, it's is in fact prone to mutation. I know it's a technicality, but really now, are things so easy on us at present that we need to interpret and interpret in search of even more reason to be afraid?

mod edit to shorten link

[edit on 1-4-2006 by DontTreadOnMe]

Okay Vagabond - you seem to be saying that an highly fatal H5N1 bird flu pandemic in humans is not a given.

I agree and have said so several times.

I am concerned that we already have an invisible H5N1 epidemic - which is responsible for the current world wide epidemic of chronic disease.

IMO - the economic and social burdens of chronic disease far exceed the destructive potential of quick fatalities.


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Flu vaccines: Looking beyond eggs

The global spread of avian flu is putting additional pressure on vaccine developers to rethink their traditional techniques, which rely heavily on eggs to incubate vaccine stocks: The lethality of avian flu in poultry makes it unlikely that there will be 4 billion embryonated eggs available-the number needed to protect the 1.2 billion people at high risk-in the case of a pandemic, according to Suryaprakash Sambhara at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Cell culture is emerging as a viable and versatile alternative to eggs for churning out large quantities of vaccine.

Also see: Flu Vaccine Technology: Who's Blocking its Use?



On the downside - dead penguins found in Antartica had H5N1 bird flu in their digestive tracts. Final test results should be in soon.


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Sofi, dude, awesome freagen job. I dont think i even want to think what this might turn into in a couple of years. Maybe they will find a cure, or maybe we will be come the underground-mole society of America. Either way this is one fantastic article. Great job sofi, hope to hear back.


Peace,
Tim

Originally posted by soficrow
I
What if the rain and humidity gets "modified" and pushed out of the USA into Canada or Mexico, causing outbreaks and fatalities there? Or in Cuba? Or Central America?

If this was to happen, Then it would probably be considered as Nuclear, Atomic warfare(whichever one it is). There might not be a reason for these places to consider it. But all they see are the death tolls. Hope it doesnt happen!!!!!