Originally posted by SpittinCobra
Originally posted by worldwatcher
now that sounds about right, the pressure wasn't matching up to the category.. I think Rita will be a Cat 3 at landfall.
I think the gulf waters are so warm, it will become a 5, and will hit at a hard 4 or 5.
I am inclined to agree. The storm is now crossing some of the warmest water on the planet. Of course, as we have seen with Kat, it all depends on the
eye wall replacement cycle.
Of all the current tracks those more to the North are looking more and more convincing. Looking at the DMSP SSM/I Microwave Imagery data, I think we
are going to see an eye wall replacement that jumps NE. Just speculation here, but there seems to be a bit more stable air and high water temps in
that area.
DVORAK images shows a rather large bump, explaining the newest advisory placing the storm in Cat. 2 range.
[img]
www.ssd.noaa.gov...[/img]
To be honest I do not see much that will slow this storm down. This oceanic and atmospheric conditions are similar to Kat, in that the stage is poised
for another possible monster storm.
Looking at the water vapor over the US, the anticyclone mentioned by earlier NOAA discussions is evident. While the movement of the air mass will play
a part in the storms ultimate track, the warm moist air will do nothing to slow down this system. If the air mass was cyclonic then it could have
pumped in cooler drier air. While that could have helped it would have also moved the track on a similar path as that of Kat. As it stands now, it
looks like the bulk of the air mass over Texas is gone.
[img]
www.goes.noaa.gov...[/img]
Java Applet of image above
If you view the Java applet above you can see the western side of the anticyclones airmass, over New Mexico and Arizona, is now moving north. Where
ever this flow is when Rita meets it, will decide her path. I think the southern tracks are crap . My estimate is a Cat. 3-4 making landfall between
Houston Corpus Christi.
The 2pm EST Update is out.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1800Z 23.9N 81.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W 95 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W 105 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W 105 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND
Above looks very optimistic, hope they are right.
