Hurricane Rita ( Bad News For Gulf )

Starting to look like a Katrina redux and not sure how much cold water upwelling is left in the Gulf from the orginal Katrina...strange similiarity in names too, Katrina - Rita.

Here's the latest model runs - image updates when new information is availabe:

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more here:
www.skeetobiteweather.com...

Last visible satellite image for the day:

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[edit on 19-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

It looks like somebody learned something from Katrina:

From Bloomberg

As my teacher use to say we do learn from our mistakes. This storm is really exploding as we speak. I sincerly hope that everyone in its path takes heed and evacuates to a safe place. They just said on Fox News that there was a storm in 1935 that followed this same path and went from tropical to cat 5 when it reached the Keys. They thought Rita could be a 3 or 4. I hope not.

The waters are still hot in the gulf. Katrina did not cool them off as much as expected. If this storm takes a track a little west of Katrina's it will find waters that easily will support a major hurricane.

If Rita makes a direct hit on NOLA even with winds of 120mph, it will do more damage than Katrina to the area and many more levees will be breached.

A popular meteorlogist is saying Galveston/Houston is in the bullseye. This would be bad, the waters over there are hot which means more potential energy for the hurricane. Only time will tell.

One thing I am certain of, and that is Rita will be a monster of a storm once it gets into the gulf. Everyone from Alabama to Mexico needs to be keeping a watchful eye and prepare for the worst. Those in the Florida Straits should have already evacuated or at least ready for some rough weather.

And that jump was in 36 hours. This storm looks like it is forming up nicely. But you never know what they will do. Conditions are good for another nasty storm, but only time will tell.

This is going to be very bad for the Lower Keys. I hope everyone who wanted to evacuate were able to do so. I do know that county officials and the state have evacuated the frail and elderly and those needing assistance. Everyone else that chose to stay..what can I say...it's on you.. good luck, my thoughts and prayers for the best to all of you.

I can't understand why it's not a hurricane yet, the satellite imagery is extremely impressive. does 5 mph really make that much a difference?

some people will chose to ride this out just because of that and put themselves in danger.

The 11 pm update at NOAA


AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES... 195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT
270 MILES... 430 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER
OR JUST SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT RITA IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON ANDROS ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN




[edit on 19-9-2005 by Harry55]

Friendly neighbourhood mod here with a reminder:

Please do not copy/paste entire articles. Thanks.

BTW does anybody know the current water temp in the GOM? Is it still over 80F?

Whether or not this storm goes near NO can the patches in the levees handle heavy rain?
.

Yep, all these stations are reporting > 80F, some close to 90F: NOAA Gulf of Mexico Buoy Data



I think not, only a few inches of rain could possibly endanger the levee patches, looks pretty bad.

Gools, sorry about that will not do again. Thanks for being friendly.

This is the 11 pm discussion on NOAA


IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE GFDL CALLS FOR RITA TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS
THE STORM FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEING LESS THAN THOSE IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...EXCEPT IN THE LOOP CURRENT.

They will probably upgrade Rita to hurricane status at 5am EST when the next reports come out, worldwatcher.

2am report said still a tropical storm.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

[edit on 20-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

GFDL is notrious for it's inaccuracies in intensity forecasts, use CLIPPER or the SHIPS model.

12 Hour: 23.5N 79.5W 75KT
24 Hour: 24.0N 81.9W 90KT
36 Hour: 24.2N 84.5W 95KT
48 Hour: 24.3N 87.3W 100KT
72 Hour: 25.0N 91.5W 105KT

NRL intensity forecast data
12 HRS: 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
24 HRS: 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
36 HRS: 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
48 HRS: 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
72 HRS: 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

external image
Click here for the SST image Atlantic - South Florida

Click here for the SST image Gulf of Mexico

Rita is really getting big tonight:

Water vapor loop




[edit on 20-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Well she's not a hurricane yet, it's like watching a boiling pot.

A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 72 KT WOULD CORRESPOND TO 65 KT AT THE SURFACE IN AN EYEWALL...BUT RITA DOES NOT HAVE A TRUE EYEWALL AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT 90 PERCENT IS NOT THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS STORM AT THIS TIME. THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT.

Looks like the models are agreeing more and it's looking closer to a Corpus Christi lanfall now, but at this point margin of error is still high.

I'm in shock this thing is not a hurricane yet??? what is going on?

Storms that have looked more ragged have become hurricanes and this big expanding blob is still a tropical storm? wow!!! this is definitely one wacky season.

So far, here in Sunrise, we have a few squalls last night, not major, still nice and breezy for the moment but we're under a flood and tornado watch.

This has got to be the most impressive Tropical Storm on radar I have ever wittnessed. CLOSE UP I agree worldwatcher whats up ? They are saying the hurricane hunters are there now taking another look. The eyewall has not formed properly yet. 5 AM DISCUSSION Sustained winds were 72 mph at that time.

well the sun is actually peeking out in Broward, breezy still probably around 20mph but no rain

It's officially a Hurricane per my local meteorologist Brian Norcross. The planes have finally found something to upgrade it.

looking for link

Just announced, also the pressure keeps dropping currently at 985.

Here it is:

Hurricane Rita

Official update...........NHC