Hurricane Rita ( Bad News For Gulf ), page 4

Starting to look like a Katrina redux and not sure how much cold water upwelling is left in the Gulf from the orginal Katrina...strange similiarity in names too, Katrina - Rita.

Here's the latest model runs - image updates when new information is availabe:



more here:
www.skeetobiteweather.com...

Last visible satellite image for the day:





[edit on 19-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

It looks like somebody learned something from Katrina:

From Bloomberg

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Galveston, Texas, will begin voluntary evacuations tomorrow in advance of Tropical Storm Rita, which is expected to make landfall at the end of the week along the Texas Gulf Coast, city officials said at a news conference.

Voluntary evacuations will begin at 2 p.m. local time tomorrow, Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas said. A fleet of 88 buses will begin transporting residents off the island 50 miles southeast of Houston beginning at 10 a.m. on Sept. 21.

The 11 pm update at NOAA


AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES... 195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT
270 MILES... 430 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER
OR JUST SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT RITA IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON ANDROS ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN




[edit on 19-9-2005 by Harry55]

Originally posted by Gools
BTW does anybody know the current water temp in the GOM? Is it still over 80F?

Yep, all these stations are reporting > 80F, some close to 90F: NOAA Gulf of Mexico Buoy Data

Whether or not this storm goes near NO can the patches in the levees handle heavy rain?
.

I think not, only a few inches of rain could possibly endanger the levee patches, looks pretty bad.

Gools, sorry about that will not do again. Thanks for being friendly.

This is the 11 pm discussion on NOAA


IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE GFDL CALLS FOR RITA TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS
THE STORM FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEING LESS THAN THOSE IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...EXCEPT IN THE LOOP CURRENT.

Originally posted by worldwatcher

I can't understand why it's not a hurricane yet, the satellite imagery is extremely impressive. does 5 mph really make that much a difference?

They will probably upgrade Rita to hurricane status at 5am EST when the next reports come out, worldwatcher.

2am report said still a tropical storm.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

[edit on 20-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Originally posted by Harry55
This is the 11 pm discussion on

GFDL is notrious for it's inaccuracies in intensity forecasts, use CLIPPER or the SHIPS model.

12 Hour: 23.5N 79.5W 75KT
24 Hour: 24.0N 81.9W 90KT
36 Hour: 24.2N 84.5W 95KT
48 Hour: 24.3N 87.3W 100KT
72 Hour: 25.0N 91.5W 105KT

NRL intensity forecast data
12 HRS: 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
24 HRS: 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
36 HRS: 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
48 HRS: 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
72 HRS: 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT


Click here for the SST image Atlantic - South Florida

Click here for the SST image Gulf of Mexico

Rita is really getting big tonight:

Water vapor loop




[edit on 20-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

This has got to be the most impressive Tropical Storm on radar I have ever wittnessed. CLOSE UP I agree worldwatcher whats up ? They are saying the hurricane hunters are there now taking another look. The eyewall has not formed properly yet. 5 AM DISCUSSION Sustained winds were 72 mph at that time.

Here it is:

Hurricane Rita

000
WTNT63 KNHC 201311
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DOPPLER RADAR DATA...SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PRESSURE FALLS FROM
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED ON THE 11 AM...1500Z ADVISORY.

Official update...........NHC

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