Hurricane Rita ( Bad News For Gulf ), page 3
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reply posted on 19-9-2005 @ 01:16 PM by Harry55
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GEORGETOWN ON GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM... SOUTHEAST
OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 23 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
TUESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMA

NOAA



reply posted on 19-9-2005 @ 01:36 PM by Harry55
This I found in the 2 pm discussion at NOAA


...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEEPENS.
MOST OF THE MODELS AND THEIR CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED LIKEWISE...BRINGING THE TRACK
CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISOR

This is not good news for the folks in the Keys.








reply posted on 19-9-2005 @ 04:14 PM by Harry55
Hurricane Discussion 5 pm NOAA

EVEN THOUGH RITA IS NOT YET A HURRICANE...CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR IT TO BECOME ONE SOON...PRIOR TO REACHING THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO APPEARS PROBABLE...GIVEN THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO DOMINATE THE AREA
AND PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM IN THE GULF...AND NOT JUST AT THE
SURFACE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN CALLING FOR A PEAK AT 105
KT OVER THE GULF IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE
GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE OVER
THE GULF...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


FORECASTER KNABB


reply posted on 19-9-2005 @ 06:45 PM by worldwatcher
widespread power outage in Homestead (miami) already and the storm isn't even near it's closest yet

Rita is still a tropical storm, probably wont be a Hurricane until later tonight early tomorrow. Moving 13mph in a wnw direction.

Tropical Storm RITA 8PM Public Advisory

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 225 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 315 MILES...
510 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.




[edit on 9-19-2005 by worldwatcher]
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