Hurricane Rita ( Bad News For Gulf )

Originally posted by loam
Of course, let me point out how speculative these tracks are. Here was Katrina. Look at where the storm was predicted to go and where it actually went...

Predicting the exact track of these storms beyond 24-36 hours is virtually impossible. All we can do now is just make a fairly educated quess. That's why everyone along the Gulf coast needs to keep an eye on this.

Aye, that be true laddy... The seas be churnin' near ol' man Gazrok... Ere's to smooth sailin' in the days ahead! Arrr!!!! (Sorry, it be International Talk Like a Pirate Day today matie!)

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GEORGETOWN ON GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM... SOUTHEAST
OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 23 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
TUESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMA

NOAA

Yep, just a pip shy o' the beastie name, eh?

Batten down the hatches! Stow the mainsail, and hunker down mates!

Nah, just a wee little cat 1 threat at the moment.... We'll be knowin' more in a couple o' hours...



[edit on 19-9-2005 by Gazrok]

This I found in the 2 pm discussion at NOAA


...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEEPENS.
MOST OF THE MODELS AND THEIR CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED LIKEWISE...BRINGING THE TRACK
CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISOR

This is not good news for the folks in the Keys.

She looks like she has a good chance of plowing right into Houston, I hope not, those poor survivors of Katrina don't need to have their lives thrown into turmoil again...

Hurricane Discussion 5 pm NOAA

EVEN THOUGH RITA IS NOT YET A HURRICANE...CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR IT TO BECOME ONE SOON...PRIOR TO REACHING THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO APPEARS PROBABLE...GIVEN THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO DOMINATE THE AREA
AND PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM IN THE GULF...AND NOT JUST AT THE
SURFACE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN CALLING FOR A PEAK AT 105
KT OVER THE GULF IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE
GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE OVER
THE GULF...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


FORECASTER KNABB

Don´t you feel as if we have seen this before?

It seems a nightmare. All circumstances are perfect for another major storm... And it is not the last one...

I just hope it is not as destructive as Katrina...

I also wonders if two tropical storms and/or hurricanes can join together?
Has this happened before? Is it possible?

I'll keep an eye on this one. Hopefully she won't gain much strength. The last thing the gulf need is another major storm. Looks like another rainy weekend here.

Once we get sustained tropical force winds, I will likely lose power, hopefully I won't but from past experience, I'm not too optismistic.

You can keep track of South Florida conditions with these links, you can find live coverage, radar, satellite imagery and all the latest news relating to the storm:

www.local10.com...

www.wfor.com...

www.nbc6.net...

and looking at the radar it seems that Rita is blowing up...she's getting awfully big

Worldwatcher we feel for all you down there and wish you the best. It must be very scary to sit and wait on one of these hurricanes to get there not knowing what it may bring. I noticed the recent radar images showing the storm getting larger. It appears to be getting more organized. Be safe which I know you will and thanks for the links.

widespread power outage in Homestead (miami) already and the storm isn't even near it's closest yet

Rita is still a tropical storm, probably wont be a Hurricane until later tonight early tomorrow. Moving 13mph in a wnw direction.

Tropical Storm RITA 8PM Public Advisory

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 225 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 315 MILES...
510 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

[edit on 9-19-2005 by worldwatcher]

Originally posted by worldwatcher
widespread power outage in Homestead (miami) already and the storm isn't even near it's closest yet

Wow, I'm sure you'll be OK worldwatcher, just maybe uncomfortable and offline for a while...good luck.

Originally posted by worldwatcher
widespread power outage in Homestead (miami) already and the storm isn't even near it's closest yet

Rita is still a tropical storm, probably wont be a Hurricane until later tonight early tomorrow. Moving 13mph in a wnw direction.

I know you're prepared, but I gotta reiterate.................. STAY SAFE!!!

thank you guys, trust me, I'll be safe, it helps to be conspiracy minded and bit paranoid when dealing with Mother Nature

BTW, here's the most recent recon flight........

"174
URNT12 KNHC 192311
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/23:02:20Z
B. 22 deg 56 min N
076 deg 51 min W
C. 850 mb 1385 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 303 deg 067 kt
G. 217 deg 016 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 14 C/ 1524 m
J. 21 C/ 1525 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF302 0518A RITA OB 24
MAX FL WIND 67 KT SW QUAD 22:57:20 Z"

So max flight winds are only 77mph, I still think she's going to blow much like Katrina did.

It should dangermouse, Rita is going to be right over the gulf stream if she isn't already...so rapid intensification will probably happen overnight. Hopefully everybody gets out of the Keys, the 7-mile bridge and most of Card Sound road might be under water. It's too scary to imagine what driving would be like on those roads once the heavy squalls move in.

btw, conditions in Ft Lauderdale right now are gorgeous, nice consistent breeze, probably between 18 and 25mph. Fast moving clouds, we had some fast moving showers earlier, but it's been dry for a while now.

Some of you take a look at this radar image and see if you agree it looks as if an eye has formed. HERE

Originally posted by Harry55
Some of you take a look at this radar image and see if you agree it looks as if an eye has formed. HERE

Sure looks like she's trying to.

you could be right harry, the satellite image gives you a better perspective on it

www.goes.noaa.gov...