posted on May, 7 2008 @ 01:05 AM
Thanks for continuous updates on this Hellmutt. It seems that even in Russia we are left to rely on outside sources for whatever the heck is going on
there. The only local news sources are Russia's or Georgia's propaganda, which lead to no conclusions and only more confusion.
I have several personal contacts in the Caucasus and Georgia, and so far it seems like much of this is just talk. Russian military activity in the
region and regional airbases has not seen much increase from what I hear. Not has there been any change in movement accross the border - if war was
imminent you would likely see a stream of civilian refugees from Abkhazia.
As for troops in Abkhazia - I really doubt Russia would be channeling soldiers there. To offset Georgia's supposed build-up, Russia would have to
send thousands of troops - which would not go unnoticed. And if it sends fewer than that, it would just be putting its people in potential harm's
way. Russia still has a contingent of "peace keepers" there. Abkhazia probably has enough of its own fighters to repel any innitial Georgian
And even if Russia is increasing its number of troops in Abkhazia, it could well be as a result of Georgia's preparations, not the cause. We really
don't know who made the first step, or any step. Every news report offers conflicting views.
And the reported 7,500 Georgian troops also hints that there is no serious threat. This wouldn't be nearly enough of what Georgia would need to
secure the entire province. Heck - I bet mere 7,500 troops would get slaughtered if there were to attack, even with air and artillery support. To
secure Abkhazia would be no easier than it was for Russia to secure Chechnya in the 90's. Georgia would need tens of thousands of ground troops will
full logistical support, and a ton of luck.
The situation is tense, but I would bet that it will gradually scale down in the coming weeks and the status quo will remain. If Georgia attacks, it
would be suicide. And I do not expect Russia to change its stance on Abkhazia or to declare it an independent sovereignty.
[edit on 7-5-2008 by maloy]