Wow! There is war and Tskhinvali is being intensively shelled. And the world doesn't even notice! What is the world press writing about? Not this...

I just came back from a vacation to Abkhazia (yes - Russians still see it a Black Sea resort and constanly frequent the area, and are much welcomed by the locals), and I must say that it appears very calm. The locals aren't wary at all about any prospect for war, and in fact it seems like they have forgoten it. The only way one can tell there was a war there, is by some building ruins which haven't been rebuilt - there isn't much need for rebuilding because the population declined sharply when the Georgians were driven out. And I don't think the locals are saying that war won't happen just to tourists. They actually seems to believe that they are safe, and that in case of an attack Russia will come to their aid. I doubt everything is so simply, and the authorities no doubt have good propaganda.

I really appreciate this thread as it's pretty much the only reason I even know about this situation. Thank you, and please keep the updates coming.

What a mess, so many ethnic groups located in the Caucasus and to make matters worse theres also oil there.

Can someone give me a brief rundown of the situation, from what I gathered Russia is supporting the break away countries, but Georgia and the UN do not recognize them?

Originally posted by BostonOrange
What a mess, so many ethnic groups located in the Caucasus and to make matters worse theres also oil there.

Actually there is little to no oil in the Caucasus itself. There is lots of oil in the Caspian Sea, which borders the Caucasus region, but the only countries there with open access to it are Azerbaijan and Russia - not Georgia. However there is an oil pipeline in Georgia which transfers that oil from the Caspian to Turkey for the US (who have good relations with Azerbaijan). There were also major refining installations in Chechnya, but they are gone now.

This is not so much about oil, but the Caspian pipeline does complicate things further.

Originally posted by BostonOrange
Can someone give me a brief rundown of the situation, from what I gathered Russia is supporting the break away countries, but Georgia and the UN do not recognize them?

Russia is careful about who it is supporting, as it dealt itself with a break away problem in Chechnya (mere hundred miles from the region discussed in this thread). Chechnyan separatists also had major ties with Abknazia and Georgia. First they helped Abkhazia fight Georgia, and then they got help from Georgia to fight Russia.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia (and untill several years back - Adjaria), are all trying to break away from Georgia. Abkhazia and South Ossetia defeated Georgia in the war, but didn't really receive independence. Russia was not too eager to have them join the Russian Federation (and still isn't), and they are too weak and disorganized to create a functioning independent nation.

So they are left in a state of unofficial sovereignty, where they technically control themselves, but are not recognized as independent nations by anyone (not even Russia). And the word is, that the new Georgian strong man - pro-US/NATO Saakashvilli is planning another war, to destroy the separatists. This war will either lead to:

1. Another Georgian defeat, possibly completely crippling Georgian economy.

2. Georgian victory and ethnic cleansing in the separatist provinces.

3. Stalemate and eventual US military support for Georgia, and consequently Russian support for the separatists.


As for why the fighting began in the first place - it is an arguement as old as nation-states, and has some similarities to mre well known Kosovo, Palestinians and North Ireland. It's too complex and few remember or care how it started.