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originally posted by: Serdgiam
Authority worship seems to be more extreme than ever, with a strange form of amnesia and lack of self-awareness.
originally posted by: baddmove
I'm with Nerbot here, I have family in 5 states and not 1 of them knows anyone who knows anyone who knows anyone who has had this virus we hear so much about.. I think we have all been played but I don't know why....
originally posted by: Serdgiam
..... The amount of times I get interrupted halfway through my first sentence with "Oooh, so you [insert Narrative here]?!" is frustrating and sad. And its been getting worse for years.
originally posted by: anzha
For the last six weeks, on the two week mark, I have been asking whether or not ATS has changed its mind about the covid-19 pandemic. I originally asked what it would take to convince people to change their minds[1] about the outbreak and then later moved on to ask whether or not any of you had[2,3]. So far, it has been interesting: little to no one has changed their mind.
When I originally asked, with revised numbers, there were 2,754 deaths in the US from covid-19. The first patient was officially recognized in the US on January 19th, 2020[4]. However, there have been some recent evidence the virus was here even sooner. It has not been put through peer review yet: so the evidence is merely been claimed, but not yet examined by other specialists. In science and medicine, this is VERY important.
The recent kerfluffle over hydroxychloroquine is a really good example of this. Hydroxychloroquine was touted as a cure for the covid-19 virus on many, many levels and by people who are not doctors by and large. There were some claims made that were anecdotal, but no solid science behind them. The drug is used for dealing with parasites like malaria and as an immuno suppressant for conditions like lupus. There was no trace of this as a use for a coronavirus until someone in France claimed it worked and we were off to the races. Finally, real studies have been done. The New England Journal of Medicine - the preeminent medical journal in the world, folks, is American - found no effect for 1,300 patients when given hydroxychloroquine compared to those who were not[5]. Don't trust the talking heads, folks: they often have their own agenda, even if its just 'make the other side of the fence look bad.'
As of today, over 80,000 people have officially died of the coronavirus[6]. This is based on the data for the different states, rather than from the Feds. The CDC data takes longer to collate and vet before release. They're just being cautious. it's not like there are any politics involved in this, right? If we follow from the first case being January 19th (again, it might have been sooner, we're waiting to see the data, not anecdotes), then we have had a covid-19 'season' of 111 days. This gives us a mortality rate of over 720 per day. Since I have been asking, the average deaths per day have been over 1800. In contrast, the flu - which folks like to compare covid-19 to - killed an estimated 62,000 this year on the high end[7]. The flu season ran from October 1st to April 4th, lasting 187 days. This gives an average rate of death of 337 for that time frame. A normal, but had flu season kills an average of 73,000 and lasts about 220 days. Covid has run for half that and killed more.
There are some anomalies with the data though. In NYC, death rates were far above the norm in March/April and most were not attributed to covid[8]. The US deaths in February were FAR above normal or at least the expected[9]. Additionally, most of the country has been in a quarantine and testing hasn't been done for most people. it is hard to tell if the virus has swept through people harming few or if it has yet to reach the populace: the antibody tests are being called into question for their accuracy[10].
The last anomaly stands out by itself. There's a strange twist each state seems to declare people cured or not differently. NY, which has been hit far harder than anywhere else, has had around 27,000 died and 56,000 recovered of their cases. OTOH, Texas claims it has had roughly 38k cases, has around 1k dead and 24k recovered. NYC says they have 260k active cases and Texas claims they have 13k. This seems odd. Are we seeing different definitions of 'cleared?' Or is it a regional difference? Or what?
Additionally, the total active cases is the US is over 1 million. The percent that recover (instead of die) has bounced between 70% and 80% for official cases. If that holds true, then we could see as much as 300,000 more die. That doesn't count anymore people who get added to the case count. I seriously and sincerely hope not. With the reopening of the states looking more and more likely, it remains to be seen how many more cases there will be. One would hope we are through the worst, already, but... with as fscked up as 2020 has been so far, I'm not holding my breath.
At any rate, with all of the above, with all of it said, have you, ATSer, changed your mind about the covid-19 pandemic? Is there any chance you will change your mind? What would it take to do so?
1. www.abovetopsecret.com...
2. www.abovetopsecret.com...
3. www.abovetopsecret.com...
4. www.nejm.org...
5. www.nejm.org...
6. www.nejm.org...
7. www.cdc.gov...
8. www.nytimes.com...
9. www.washingtonpost.com...
10. www.ucsf.edu...
originally posted by: hutch622
a reply to: anzha
I changed my mind . I thought the average North American ATSer was quite intelligent . Apparently i was wrong .Cv 19 is a killer .
originally posted by: rikgrimsby
Nope, I still think its the biggest pysop of a generation and there's more going on then we think/know.
originally posted by: proximo
originally posted by: hutch622
a reply to: anzha
I changed my mind . I thought the average North American ATSer was quite intelligent . Apparently i was wrong .Cv 19 is a killer .
Your problem is you are too rigid in your thinking.
Too answer your question I have changed my mind, as should anybody who has been paying attention to the data.
I am now far less worried about it, and now know the only way out is herd immunity.
Yeah some people are going to die - that is unavoidable, but staying locked down is unquestionably the worst thing we can continue to do. A depression will clearly kill far more than this virus will.