What would it take to convince you otherwise about the covid-19 epidemic?

Right now, in many of the posts on ATS about the virus, I have been seeing to rather different mindsets. In their extremes, one side is stating this is a devastating epidemic and it's the end of the world. The other side is saying this is an extreme 'nothingburger' and everyone is over reacting to the disease and/or this is something of a power grab. My own stance is somewhere between the two, tbh, but we'll get to that in a bit.

A thought occurred to me: I wondered what it would take for people to change their minds? What would it take for the end of the world types to accept this was a nothingburger? What would it take for those who feel the whole thing is a 'nothingburger' to think the epidemic is serious? I would like to discard the 'this is a power grab' and the 'end of the world' scenarios for the moment: those will come about or not with a fairly obvious result, tbh, either way.

So? What would it take for you to admit you were wrong?

Let me go first.

I think the virus is serious. I think it is far worse than the flu, with the possible except of the Flu of 1918. However, I do not think it qualifies as a "plague." (note, little 'p') . To change my mind that this is very, very serious is we have flu levels of death even with the social distancing and the shutdowns. Those should flatten the curve. if they don't this is far, far worse than we thought. On the flipside, when we go back out at the end of all the social distancing and shutdowns with no resurgence at all, then this may have been something we ought not have worried about at all: unless there is a universal and effective vaccine, there will be something of a resurgence even in the middle case when we all go out and about again.

So! I have outlined what it will take for me to change my mind. What about you?

a reply to: anzha

Evidence to the contrary.

From what I've seen the virus is a danger to public health and the measures taken a response to try to mitigate that danger , I've seen no credible evidence that the virus isn't a danger.

A 55-year-old hospital consultant has died of coronavirus, underlining the danger to frontline NHS workers.

NHS England said that Amged el-Hawrani was the first confirmed hospital frontline worker to die after testing positive for coronavirus. A 63-year-old surgeon, Adil el Tayar, also died last week after volunteering in A&E departments in the Midlands to help the NHS cope with the pandemic.

El-Hawrani was an ear, nose and throat specialist at Queen’s Hospital Burton in Derbyshire. He died in Leicester Royal Infirmary on Saturday after testing positive for Covid-19.
www.theguardian.com...

Universal accurate testing of the majority of the population. I never argue with facts, but they seem to be in short supply right now.
a reply to: anzha

a reply to: ComebackLogic

Test everyone..... or as many as possible... that way we know the amount of “asymptotic” people so we can actually “study” and learn from this. Rather than using a bunch of random numbers from different sources that go back and forth everyday.

Testing more will show it is “almost” a nothingburger....
But we only test “ SEVERE” cases..? What’s the point of that if they are already “close to death”... it muddied the water. To study asymptotic and mild “carriers” we can learn far more than we do and the fact that they aren’t trying is absurd and detrimental to this whole debacle; both scientifically and morally.

This virus is worse than the flu, but it is not as bad as the media and some people who profit from it are saying it is.

It is worse for older people, but almost all diseases are worse in older people, most old people in this country die from infections I would bet. If it is not one disease that gets you it is a different disease. Our immune systems start to not work as well when you are over sixty five or more.

I consider this a disease worth doing social distancing and some of the stuff we are doing countrywide, but I think they are blowing this up too much in this country. In a few weeks part of our country might be able to go somewhat back to normal, other parts might need some isolation for a while yet. I do think the panic they are promoting is much worse than the disease itself, more people could die from that than this virus.

a reply to: anzha

I saw a podcast that was sent to me from my brother on whats-app of a Spanish doctor in Madrid crying because they were ordered to remove the respirators from those whom are above the age of 65 and sedating them until they pass away in order to give them to the younger people.

so I dont know, but has anyone of you witnessed a situation like this before?

im not talking about a third world country, this is Spain, and ive heard that it happened in Italy too.

i totally agree.. way under reported. I know personally 5 people , in my family, including my husband who are all sick and probably infected but not tested due to shortages of testing kits. I am told you either have to be dying or a first responder to get access to the test . Believe we need to test everyone. reply to: SeektoUnderstand

rr

a reply to: Dr UAE

‘LIES’ – Madrid’s health authority denies taking ventilators from the over-65s despite viral video of crying Spanish doctor

That's the problem with this whole event. Not sure what to trust. Too much misinformation.

Something big is happening, no doubt. Too many unprecedented actions taking place around the world for the common flu or a nothingburger.

There is a certain Darwinian aspect to denial, so in one sense the problem fixes itself. The collateral damage, however, is unacceptable to the rest of us.

originally posted by: SeektoUnderstand
a reply to: ComebackLogic

Test everyone..... or as many as possible... that way we know the amount of “asymptotic” people so we can actually “study” and learn from this. Rather than using a bunch of random numbers from different sources that go back and forth everyday.

Testing more will show it is “almost” a nothingburger....
But we only test “ SEVERE” cases..? What’s the point of that if they are already “close to death”... it muddied the water. To study asymptotic and mild “carriers” we can learn far more than we do and the fact that they aren’t trying is absurd and detrimental to this whole debacle; both scientifically and morally.

That's the way I think about it, even if it would show that there are two similar virus's involved, as China did say a couple of months ago.
Downplaying the role of testing because of the exponential possible numbers, which has been cited quite often, is not good enough, this virus, or both if that is the scenario, should be hammered, not chipped at.

No doubt the psychological effect on everyone of us who has not been tested, could at least boost our morale for a time, instead of this limbo....but I guess in saying that, officialdom would say that's just being selfish.

a reply to: anzha

For me its time. I know this can be drastically better than its looking now. I wait for the KNOWN timeframes in the near future to make conclusions. Others make conclusions now based on wishful thinking alone.

When I see people here with such conviction while stuck at home reading the entirety of the internet but nonetheless out of the loop, make declarations of the insignificance of this it makes me worried.

The arguments arent honest. They compare a 12 month flu cycle to a 2-3 month period with equally high numbers of cases and ignore the fact that its A LOT in very little time. Hence the argument for "flash flood" hospital saturation with overflow of CRITICAL patients into halls and home Hospice where society begins to fray.

So time. If we are not Italy or Spain or even China then cool. If NYC losses +50,000 people like Wuhan did but we do so in a few weeks, then say hello to the new Chicago for a decade or two. Lockdown or not.

Who would come here with that stigma on us. The sick city.

a reply to: anzha

Good Thread! S&F

If the Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths started approaching the common flu in my state (Illinois), I'd begin to take notice.

Right now, Emergency Rooms are normal, and "only" 47 people have died over the past 2 months due to Covid-19, as compared to 410, due to the flu.

a reply to: LookingAtMars

Big happening...


On Corona, the Media, and Propaganda


Too much deception

The only difference I see between this and the flu is hospitals being overwhelmed.

With the flu, the hospitals have a steady flow in and out, with very few serious cases needing more than a few days. With this virus being ten times more contagious, and serious cases requiring two/three weeks or more of hospitalization, medical staff and the supply chain can't keep up. THAT makes it far more serious than the flu, even if not as deadly.

If the number of deaths were higher for children and young people than the elderly presently being most at risk, I think the perspective- and public opinion- would be drastically different.

originally posted by: SeektoUnderstand
a reply to: ComebackLogic

Test everyone..... or as many as possible... that way we know the amount of “asymptotic” people so we can actually “study” and learn from this. Rather than using a bunch of random numbers from different sources that go back and forth everyday.

Testing more will show it is “almost” a nothingburger....
But we only test “ SEVERE” cases..? What’s the point of that if they are already “close to death”... it muddied the water. To study asymptotic and mild “carriers” we can learn far more than we do and the fact that they aren’t trying is absurd and detrimental to this whole debacle; both scientifically and morally.

I’m not in the “Nothing burger” camp, I believe the true mortality rate of this will be at around 1 - 1.5%, of all infections could be counted successfully. Given the clearly high rate of transmissibility, this could be disastrous if allowed to spread unchecked. The global reaction however, has been extraordinary, to this point and that is what has me feeling a little rattled.
Once countries began to follow China and lockdown to slow the spread of the virus, I suspect other leaders watched and decided they didn’t want to be the ones who weren’t following the same example, just in case deaths soared excessively and the population demanded to know why they hadn’t done what other countries had done. Imagine trying to ever get elected again with the label of “the party who sent us to our collective deaths” forever attached to them. It was a clear domino effect as one nation after another followed the script to close schools, then bars and restaurants, followed by all non essential businesses and a stay at home order for all except those in vital roles.
That could be construed as sinister, but it’s more likely the response is the result of a study or projection that’s been turned into a model. We’ve all heard about the Ferguson model that predicted 2.2m deaths in the USA and 500,000 in the U.K., only to be heavily revised downwards again.

originally posted by: nugget1
The only difference I see between this and the flu is hospitals being overwhelmed.

With the flu, the hospitals have a steady flow in and out, with very few serious cases needing more than a few days. With this virus being ten times more contagious, and serious cases requiring two/three weeks or more of hospitalization, medical staff and the supply chain can't keep up. THAT makes it far more serious than the flu, even if not as deadly.

If the number of deaths were higher for children and young people than the elderly presently being most at risk, I think the perspective- and public opinion- would be drastically different.

I agree that this sounds like the most logical explanation at this point.

And add in "never waste a good crisis".

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: anzha

Good Thread! S&F

If the Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths started approaching the common flu in my state (Illinois), I'd begin to take notice.

Right now, Emergency Rooms are normal, and "only" 47 people have died over the past 2 months due to Covid-19, as compared to 410, due to the flu.

Classic. There is more to this issue, the people, our country, and the facts, than what is happening right around you.
Go ahead and apply that to the rest of life as well.

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: anzha

Good Thread! S&F

If the Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths started approaching the common flu in my state (Illinois), I'd begin to take notice.

Right now, Emergency Rooms are normal, and "only" 47 people have died over the past 2 months due to Covid-19, as compared to 410, due to the flu.

I am watching it unfold here. Day 1, one case. Day 2, toe cases. Day 3 five cases; day 4, one death. Day 5, nine cases and three deaths.

It's in one of the three factories ( that we know of) and at least two nursing homes. More than 2,500 residents are over 65; another 2,500+ are at high risk with health factors.

Today is day six, and I'm waiting for new numbers to come out. Testing is only being done on those with symptoms that meet criteria, and keep in mind the 'positive' results we are hearing took 7-10 days to confirm.

Zero to nine in four days, with three deaths. I'm doubtful the 150 hospital beds will be enough for the 50,000+ residents, let alone the thousands of others from all the outlying rural communities that rely on it for medical care.

originally posted by: anzha
So? What would it take for you to admit you were wrong?

Actual, verified statistics without a lot of "projections" coming from sources with obvious agendas.

Also, I would be a lot more convinced if I knew just one person who actually has it and had anything other than a mild reaction. Maybe more than one. But one at least.

Its definitley serious IMO,I will change my mind when an effective treatment for the worst symptoms is found.

Because the hospitals are all being jammed up with those who are very sick with the virus,I think many people who don't have the virus could be at risk of death in any number of other emergency medical situations.

For example,you need an ambulance for a heart attack/car crash or any other life threatening accident or illness-but the ambulances are all in use due to high demand from the virus.
Even an hour or two delay could prove fatal in such cases.

That is something I have been thinking about.
I doubt we will ever see any numbers for such cases but I imagine there will be a lot.

Here in Wales we've already had imbeciles using the roads as race tracks(more than usual).
Do they think they will get a fast ambulance response?
Some people just don't think sadly.