EARLY VOTING Tallies Are Coming In - Here Are The State-by-State Results.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

no

As for governorships, I couldn't care less. I don't live in those states so if they want to elect corrupt dem governors, they can eat their hearts out and do so.

This is a fair point. I too, fail to see how governerships factor into it. At least in regards to the national scene, other than just trends, but even that is false, as often, this isn't a partisan election, but more about the person. I hope we in FL don't screw the pooch. Gillum is all about taxes and a pie in the sky healthcare plan that has zero chance of being passed, or working anyhow. It'd be a waste of time and money (at our expense).

Gerrymandering isn't a real problem. There's no "undoing it" there's only changing how it's done. You can gain about 5 seats nationwide through gerrymandering if you get lucky, but you could lose 10 other seats by doing that. It's a stupid fake problem made up to dupe stupid people.

ETA: gerrymandering also has almost zero to do with governor's. Most states have the districts drawn by the state legislature.

This is pretty much right on the money, but of course, they won't usually tell you that, hehe.

No tallies are not coming in. These are exit polls not vote tallies. If they are counting votes a week early that is illegal.
And so obviously these are not vote tallies.

Not even exit polls. These are about RETURNED BALLOTS by party. As I mentioned previously though, even this is going to skew WRONG. The reason for this, is many registered Dems voting RED down the ballot. So these will be reported as Dem ballots (even though the VOTES are red). This is going to be a huge wakeup call on Nov. 6th, when these early returns give the Dems false hope. They are going to cry foul, due to shock.

a reply to: Dfairlite

80% to 20% Dems take over the House (Most likely Outcome Dems gain 30 seats)

85% to 15% GOP hold control of the Senate (Most likely outcome GOP gains 1 seat)
Consider that there are 26 Dem Seats up for re-election in the Senate!
and only 5 GOP seats.
And the GOP will likely only gain 1 seat at best.

In 2020 it will be mostly GOP seats up for re-election in the Senate (reverse of 2018). If the GOP can't gain ground now in the senate, their next chance will be 2022, and they will likely lose the Senate in 2020.

538 has the most comprehensive forecast model. Select "lite" for no bells or whistles or weighting, just numbers. It is the least favorable to Dems, but still shows strong outcome.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com...

originally posted by: Gazrok

The reason for this, is many registered Dems voting RED down the ballot. So these will be reported as Dem ballots (even though the VOTES are red). This is going to be a huge wakeup call on Nov. 6th, when these early returns give the Dems false hope. They are going to cry foul, due to shock.

Do you have any statistical evidence to support this claim?

Or is it anecdotal and opinion aka worldview?

a reply to: soberbacchus

You'll get to see the results of these stats on Nov. 6th. Just be patient.

originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: soberbacchus

Incorrect, at this point in his presidency obama was less popular. That must really sting you crazies.

Telling that you failed to provide a link or support.

NOPE

Pres. Obama was at 45% and at the peak of Obamacare Outrage (Death Panels and Microchips) and just starting to turn the ship from the last disaster GOP Economic crisis. Trump is at 42% with a good economy.

Scroll down for comparison with past presidents.

Not just Pres. Obama, but even Nixon and Carter had better approval ratings than Trump at this stage.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com...

538 has the most comprehensive forecast model.

If nothing else, the 2016 election should have shown that there is no reliable forecast model. A lot of us simply don't talk to pollsters, and if we do, we lie to them, just for fun.

Personal prediction, the GOP gains a few seats in the Senate (but not enough for a super majority). And the GOP retains control of the House, but barely. We'll see what happens in a week.

a reply to: soberbacchus

Of course it's anecdotal. Meanwhile my district is about to vote in their first Democrat Representative since 1981.

But that's not indicative of anything. Instead what we should actually be paying to is what Joe on Twitter is saying. That's a much better indicator of how this election is going to go.

originally posted by: soberbacchus

originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: soberbacchus

Incorrect, at this point in his presidency obama was less popular. That must really sting you crazies.

Telling that you failed to provide a link or support.

NOPE

Pres. Obama was at 45% and at the peak of Obamacare and just starting to turn the ship shop the last disaster GOP Economic crisis. Trump is at 42%.

Scroll down for comparison with past presidents.

Not just Pres. Obama, but even Nixon and Carter had better approval ratings than Trump at this stage.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com...

The media has run negative news coverage of Trump for two+ years straight. Under phony investigations. Still at 42% approval.

The media kissed Obama's ass for his entire life, was only 3 points higher.

Pres. Obama was at 45% and at the peak of Obamacare and just starting to turn the ship shop the last disaster GOP Economic crisis. Trump is at 42%.

Who the hell cares? It's ancient history....

I still can't believe folks put ANY credence in polls (including approval ratings) after 2016 and their Hillary landslide prediction. It's ridiculous.

a reply to: Gazrok

FiveThirtyEight updated their model after 2016 to account for the lessons learned.

a reply to: Gazrok

To avoid ridicule, many Trump voters in 2016 didn't tell their anyone they were voting for Trump.

For the same reason, many Democrats this year are not telling anyone in their circle, that they're voting Republican...or not voting at all. They like seeing and experiencing America becoming greater than ever.

originally posted by: Gazrok

538 has the most comprehensive forecast model.

If nothing else, the 2016 election should have shown that there is no reliable forecast model. A lot of us simply don't talk to pollsters, and if we do, we lie to them, just for fun.

Personal prediction, the GOP gains a few seats in the Senate (but not enough for a super majority). And the GOP retains control of the House, but barely. We'll see what happens in a week.

Some learned
www.usatoday.com...
Others not so much.......
They build all those casinos out there by giving away money....right?

originally posted by: jjkenobi

originally posted by: soberbacchus

originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: soberbacchus

Incorrect, at this point in his presidency obama was less popular. That must really sting you crazies.

Telling that you failed to provide a link or support.

NOPE

Pres. Obama was at 45% and at the peak of Obamacare and just starting to turn the ship shop the last disaster GOP Economic crisis. Trump is at 42%.

Scroll down for comparison with past presidents.

Not just Pres. Obama, but even Nixon and Carter had better approval ratings than Trump at this stage.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com...

The media has run negative news coverage of Trump for two+ years straight. Under phony investigations. Still at 42% approval.

The media kissed Obama's ass for his entire life, was only 3 points higher.

According to 99% of the polls, candidate Trump's approval was abysmal right up to election day.

Most Americans now group polling companies in the same category as CNN and MSNBC.. Partisan and deceitful.

a reply to: carewemust

Exactly. I myself, am still a registered Dem, so my ballot shows as a returned Dem ballot in the tallies.

However, it's red down the line. (as is my wife's).

I know of one other couple, who voted for Hillary in 2016, but red in the midterms.

I know of two other couples who are registered Dems, who voted for Trump, and went red down the ballot for the midterms.

ALL of our ballots count in this initial tally as BLUE, but when the VOTES are counted, they will be for RED.

It's a small sample size, but I doubt we're alone in this. I also doubt the reverse of this is happening much at all.

I've seen countless other examples of this in social media.

At least in my state, returned Dem ballots only beat out GOP in a very few counties. In even those, it's often neck and neck. On the contrary, are many counties where the GOP is trouncing Dems in returned ballots. Now add in the factor of at least SOME of the blue ballots actually being red votes, and it's going to be an interesting election day.

I bet a Young Turks viewing party will be fun. The footage of them on election day still cheers me up more than anything.

originally posted by: Gazrok
a reply to: soberbacchus

You'll get to see the results of these stats on Nov. 6th. Just be patient.

So it's opinion, anecdotal worldview.

Here's the thing though. Right wingers that prefer to live in self affirming mind space bubbles like ATS, tend to not recognize their thinking has become bias.

If you were to ask questions when you have an "opinion" that opinion might become more grounded in reality.

Like here:

84% of Right Leaning (Mostly identify GOP) Approve of Trump
16% of Right Leaning (Mostly identify GOP) Disapprove

7% of Left leaning (Mostly identify DEM) Approve of Trump
93% of Left Leaning (Mostly Identify DEM) Dissapprove

So while the GOP might get 7% of the Dem vote, the Dems will get 16% of the GOP vote.
www.pewresearch.org...

Some learned

Yep, because Vegas has money riding on it, hehe.

So while the GOP might get 7% of the Dem vote, the Dems will get 16% of the GOP vote.
www.pewresearch.org...

LOL, more polls.... You may want to hug them like a security blanket after Nov 6th.

originally posted by: Gazrok
a reply to: carewemust

Exactly. I myself, am still a registered Dem, so my ballot shows as a returned Dem ballot in the tallies.

And yet "You" are not the world.
People often confuse their own world view for being representative of the majority.
That is actually why many people don't vote and then just assume the outcome will be what they wish.
They just assume of course most people think like they do.

I am not enthused about you potentially being surprised or disappointed, I am only recommending you look outside your own thoughts and bubble of associates for an indicator of larger outcome.

originally posted by: Gazrok

So while the GOP might get 7% of the Dem vote, the Dems will get 16% of the GOP vote.
www.pewresearch.org...

LOL, more polls.... You may want to hug them like a security blanket after Nov 6th.

OK. Stick with that then.

I will be on this thread to discuss outcome in a week.

Will you?

Or will you be pre-occupied with the half dozen other threads claiming conspiracies of how the elections were rigged because your opinion wasn't realized.