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So What? Even if we decide to give credit to your simplification of the problem to predict, since anyway there were in each of those elections independent candidates too, and in the case of the Pope he was just one out of 115 other potential contenders, anyway the probability to fail is considerable in each of those forecasts.
If you take a course of probability or Statistics in any College or University you are going to see effectively that there in a case with 50% of likelihood to predict the correct outcome, there is in the same way there is 50% of risk to fail, so the risk can not be underestimated, is considerable. If in addition you take a course of Projects evaluation in Management science or in Engineering too you are going to learn that such a risk of failure in any project or business in evaluation is really very bad. It is extremely high to risk money with 50% of potential losses, that is considered too much probability to overcome against the odds, is not a good project or investment to go into, is better to put the money in a bank to gain some interests instead.
My forecast here was not that in Mexico or in Russia somebody in particular was going to win the election, but that the number of voters was going to increment dramatically with respect to the past.
well it is an extremely rare way to do so, since I was able to distinguish when a Candidate is going to win and when is going to be defeated.
My prophetic work here in ATS has been very clean, open, transparent and precise.
originally posted by: The angel of light
I predicted in January the intense seismic activity that the southern part of Italy is showing this week...
originally posted by: The angel of light
a reply to: TonyS
By the way it surprise me that the series of so biased replies are not saying that in January was pretty evident that by this November Sicily was going to be on a peak on Seismic activity.
Wait, there is somebody saying that I just made a list of seismic areas isn't it?
I have not yet known anybody that in his sane mind would predict an earthquake occurring in a Non seismic area by the way, what kind of criticism is that? sounds pretty ridicule.
Now, any expert on the topic knows pretty well that a seismic area does not experience intense activity constantly, there are periods of minor activity or even inactivity that may last years by the way.
Thanks for your reply,
The Angel of Lightness
originally posted by: The angel of light
a reply to: TonyS
Now, any expert on the topic knows pretty well that a seismic area does not experience intense activity constantly, there are periods of minor activity or even inactivity that may last years by the way.
Angel of Lightness posted on January 5th 20188) Powerful earthquakes will shake the world, many areas will be severely affected including north Iran, Venezuela-eastern Caribbean, Indonesia, India-Pakistan border, Turkey, Greece, south Italy, North eastern Australia-New Zeland-New Caledonia, western Colombia, middle and southern Chile, Central America and the USA( Pacific coast, be careful please with this beginning of month, late winter or Early spring and late summer, seismic activity will reach a peak on those periods and it will be really Intense, mega scale is in its way, be prepared even for volcanic activity.)
Any expert on reading Prediction threads can see that you are the one that behaves here as a Charlatan trying to gain fame at my expense.
my ATS member Statistics are more relevant than any subjective opinion you have on me.