Catastrophic rainfall predicted for TX, LA, gulf coast region.

a reply to: quercusrex

Be safe!

Farm to Market roads in lieu of interstate might be best; that's what we did when we ran from Rita. We got out ahead of the crowds that ended up stuck on interstates for days; but I'm sure you know your evac route.



It's had a steadily decreasing pressure and it has plenty of warm water over which to gather more moisture and energy.

I've got friends in Corpus Christi who are riding this out in a hotel that has a generator, they've buckled up their houses as best they could and got a set of 3rd floor rooms.

The wind has picked up a bit here and clouds are moving at a visible pace.

No rain yet, but we're barely in the outer bands.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

Ran the backroads but it was still slow going. Everything started clearing north of Goliad.

I'm glad we left when we did. Evac routes will be hell tomorrow and a lot of people have wait and see additudes.


ETA : watching the updates and getting worried about what we'll find when we get back home after the storm. May not find much left.

a reply to: quercusrex

Glad you are clear of trouble.

a reply to: ketsuko

Thanks to everyone for thoughts and prayers for all in the path of this storm. I'll update as I can with news of the aftermath when we get back home, probably Tues before we head back down.

a reply to: quercusrex

I am about 40 miles NE of Victoria. Not sure how long the internet will be up once things get to rocking.

Small creeks around here will turn into 100 foot rivers for a couple of days based on previous. Might be even worse.

From: www.msn.com... BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp

The National Hurricane Center described Harvey’s sudden strengthening as “astounding.” The storm is expected to strike as a Category 3 hurricane — meaning with winds greater than 111 miles per hour — making it the most powerful storm to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Wilma in 2005

Is that true? No category 3 hurricanes have made U.S. landfall since 2005?

Also, I notice at this www.nhc.noaa.gov... National Weather Service "track prediction" diagram has hurricane Harvey making a hard right turn, immediately after landfall. I've never seen one do that before.

If we're lucky, that hard right turn will occur off-shore. But... even though that would spare Texas, it could possibly send an even stronger hurricane into Louisiana. I suppose once a Hurricane is in the northern Gulf, someplace in the USA will see it's landfall. They never turn around and head down to Mexico.

Latest Thursday Night Update. At only 10mph now, Harvey is expected to slow even further. This updated statement from the NWS is quite frightening: forecast.weather.gov... Miles N Fannin TX&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement&lat=28.7382&lon=-97.2237

What the difference a day makes. Harvey was nothing but windy rainstorm, just 12 hours ago.

Harvey is on the verge of becoming a major hurricane. He appears to be strengthening with 958mb being reported by the hurricane hunters.

It is also on radar now:
www.wunderground.com...

Update, the latest pass indicate even lower pressure around 950mb....it will be interesting to see what the NHC does with this information.

originally posted by: quercusrex
a reply to: texasgirl

Been a busy day. Once the talk of cat 3 started we got ready to evac. Left Rockport around 5 pm headed north.

I'll have to renig on my offer of frontline observations. Went through Wilma in 05 don't want a repeat of that.

Good for you!! It's a Cat 2 now and can get even stronger. Keep us updated, okay?

originally posted by: roadgravel
a reply to: quercusrex

I am about 40 miles NE of Victoria. Not sure how long the internet will be up once things get to rocking.

Small creeks around here will turn into 100 foot rivers for a couple of days based on previous. Might be even worse.

Are you planning on riding this out? Please stay safe if you are!! This storm is not to be messed with!!

originally posted by: jrod
Harvey is on the verge of becoming a major hurricane. He appears to be strengthening with 958mb being reported by the hurricane hunters.

It is also on radar now:
www.wunderground.com...

Update, the latest pass indicate even lower pressure around 950mb....it will be interesting to see what the NHC does with this information.

My heart is sinking over this news. Was hoping the hurricane was slowing down last night and staying a Cat 1.

If it ramps up to a Cat 3 and everyone decides to leave at once it could be a big mess!

a reply to: texasgirl

The pressure has been dropping fast but so far it appears the wind is not cat 3 yet. Generally the pressure drops then the wind catches up. 950mb is the pressure you see it a strong cat 3 hurricane.

My guess is the 7am(cdt) advisory will be when Harvey officially becomes a major hurricane.

Hopefully it is peaking....but currently the data suggests its strengthening.

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: texasgirl

The pressure has been dropping fast but so far it appears the wind is not cat 3 yet. Generally the pressure drops then the wind catches up. 950mb is the pressure you see it a strong cat 3 hurricane.

My guess is the 7am(cdt) advisory will be when Harvey officially becomes a major hurricane.

Hopefully it is peaking....but currently the data suggests its strengthening.

Damn...That sounds bad. I hope everyone heeds the warnings! Like I said earlier, I would much rather be safe than sorry when it comes to my life. You only get one!

Pressure has dropped to 952 mb and winds are now 110 mph. Once it reaches 111 mph it becomes a Cat 3 storm.

Looks like we are going to hit Cat 3 status soon!

The first rain from the large band on the north of the storm is starting to fall.

Here is the forecast for rain fall. I'll compare my results to the forecast for these three days.

8/25 - 2.26
8/26 - 11.89
8/27 - 8.56

a reply to: carewemust

Yes.

Wilma was the last big hurricane. There have been some weaker ones at Cat 1 I think, but no real major ones in a long time.

07:00 CDT

from AF recon

flight-level peak wind 103 knots
surface peak wind 88 knots
central pressure 967mb

Everybody stay safe.
Dumb northerner question. What happens to work? Business just shut down and hope for the best like everyone else? Do they say go home and see ya when it's over. Unemployment?? Just questions from somebody who's only had 1 weather related day off in the last 40 years.

The last couple of frames of the radar and satellite look impressive.

I am wondering if the NHC will wait for more recon data are upgrade the storm on its improved appearance.

It also appears to be slowing, this could be good because the rain will not make it as far inland, but bad because it will give Harvey more time over the warm gulf waters.

Currently as of 8am cdt, 110mph, 950mb.


Update. Hurricane hunters are reporting 946mb from a dropsone. Still no reports of cat 3 winds. With the pressure being what it is, it is a matter of time before Harvey becomes a major hurricane.

Link to Texas beaches web cams
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