Mexican Earthquake Mega-Simulation Drill Coincided With Earthquake; Was it HAARP?

Originally posted by Chadwickus
reply to post by MegaMind

 

Why can't it be a coincidence?

You think that if someone could create an earthquake that they would do it minutes after an earthquake drill is supposed to start?

Why Mexico? Why this drill? How do they control the magnitude?

People have been blaming things like HAARP for creating earthquakes for years, why would they tip their hand now?

I never said haarp.

I didn't say the EQ was created by man.

And why don't I think it was coincidence? the odds are simply too great.

reply to post by GLontra


As I said in the other thread, where you also posted, the earthquake drill is an annual event in recognition of the 1985 Mexico quake.

reply to post by MegaMind


If its not a coincidence.

And it's not man made, what is it then?

Explain...

Originally posted by Chadwickus
reply to post by MegaMind

 

Why can't it be a coincidence?

You think that if someone could create an earthquake that they would do it minutes after an earthquake drill is supposed to start?

Why Mexico? Why this drill? How do they control the magnitude?

People have been blaming things like HAARP for creating earthquakes for years, why would they tip their hand now?

If the skeptics want to have some intellectual honesty on this case, they will need to make a choice...


The options are:


- This was a man-made quake. They will have to stop to be "skeptical" of this possibility. HAARP or other device, it was man-made.


- This was a case of prediction of the future, premonition, intuition. Someone in the Civil Protection Service of Chiapas have such "sensibility" to future events. They will have to stop to be "skeptical" of this possibility.


If the "skeptics" choose to keep being "skeptical" of BOTH possibilities, this is intellectual dishonesty. They know that it's mathematically IMPOSSIBLE to be a "coincidence". It's easier to win the lotto.

Originally posted by Chadwickus
reply to post by MegaMind

 

If its not a coincidence.

And it's not man made, what is it then?

Explain...

I don't have to explain or find the cause. I don't start with a theory and then try to find facts.

These are the facts. The odds are astronomical against chance!

I have no idea how this came about but I do know something is at play and it isn't chance.

Originally posted by GLontra
If the "skeptics" choose to keep being "skeptical" of BOTH possibilities, this is intellectual dishonesty. They know that it's mathematically IMPOSSIBLE to be a "coincidence". It's easier to win the lotto.

This is a false bifurcation, GLontra. In other words, these are not the only two possible reactions or conclusions one can draw here.

Indeed, it very well MIGHT be nothing more than a coincidence, however greatly the odds seem stacked against such a thing.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Putting it another way, have you heard of the anthropic principle? It's a question most often posed in cosmology that relates to all of the scores of conditions in the universe that, were any single one of them changed by even just a hair, life could not exist. Some people view such a marvelous "fine tuning" as evidence that God must exist because it cannot be coincidence that so many factors are tuned just right to support life, while others point out that, as coincidental as it may be, since we're here observing the universe all of these factors MUST be tuned to precisely where they are, otherwise we couldn't be here to observe it.

The argument can really go both ways, but think of it yet another way: what are the odds, out of all the human beings that have ever walked the earth and currently walk the earth, out of all of these billions of people, that you are exactly who YOU are?

And yet....there you be.

I'm not trying to suck the wind out of this thread. I do agree that you'd have to be an exceptionally hard skeptic to not at least raise an eyebrow at this. It is spooky, indeed.

But part of being a skeptic means, before any sense of wonder or personal emotion sways you, you absolutely must consider the situation objectively. Sometimes extraordinary coincidences DO happen. When you ponder the mathematics involved with time and astronomy, the numbers get so mind-bogglingly big that what appears magical and significant in ordinary layman's terms is mundane and petty in the larger scheme of things.

The other part of being a skeptic is you have to follow through with the implications of the theory you're examining. Just as another poster stated, so what IF it's not a coincidence? Then what is it? If you say man made, we must consider how that's even possible. We have to consider WHY man would do such a thing. We have to consider the motives, the rationale, the trade off of possible loss of life and infrastructure.

reply to post by MegaMind


The question, what are the odds just got me running.

Let's try to evaluate. It's gonna be quite basic, and if someone has better numbers, help me out with this.
Lets start with the simple probability rules : with 3 dices, you want to reach 6-6-6 each dice has the probability of 1/6 to get the six. So the calc would be (1/6)x(1/6)x(1/6) = 1/216

So we try earthquakes with the 3 variables time, scale and place
Time: to get down to a minute in one year: 365days x 24hours x 60min = 525 600 or probability 1/ 525 600
Scale: lets take a scale 0-10 down to 1 digit, probability is 1/ (10x9) = 1/90
place: this is difficult, lets brake it down to a country. With 195 nations on this planet, prob would be 1/195
(this is very crude, since there are higher risk countries, and we are not calculating regions)

So overall we'd have (1/525600)x(1/90)x(1/195) = 3.54e-10 Or 0.000000000035
Sorry cant put the -10in upper case.

So, if am right (again please correct me here) it would be 1 in 3 billions !!!

something i would not bet on, unless i am 100% sure the game is rigged...

Originally posted by svetlana84
reply to post by MegaMind

 

The question, what are the odds just got me running.

Let's try to evaluate. It's gonna be quite basic, and if someone has better numbers, help me out with this.
Lets start with the simple probability rules : with 3 dices, you want to reach 6-6-6 each dice has the probability of 1/6 to get the six. So the calc would be (1/6)x(1/6)x(1/6) = 1/216

So we try earthquakes with the 3 variables time, scale and place
Time: to get down to a minute in one year: 365days x 24hours x 60min = 525 600 or probability 1/ 525 600
Scale: lets take a scale 0-10 down to 1 digit, probability is 1/ (10x9) = 1/90
place: this is difficult, lets brake it down to a country. With 195 nations on this planet, prob would be 1/195
(this is very crude, since there are higher risk countries, and we are not calculating regions)

So overall we'd have (1/525600)x(1/90)x(1/195) = 3.54e-10 Or 0.000000000035
Sorry cant put the -10in upper case.

So, if am right (again please correct me here) it would be 1 in 3 billions !!!

something i would not bet on, unless i am 100% sure the game is rigged...

decent analysis in my opinion ...

To put it another way ...

To anyone arguing for it being just a coincidence the chance that you are wrong is well over 99.99999% (conservatively)

Errr....

Do you know when was the last time Mexico had an earthquake of magnitude above 7.0 in the Richter scale?

It was 04 April 2010.

And before that, you know when was the previous one?

22 January 2003.

source: earthquake.usgs.gov...


In the 21th century so far, there were only TWO earthquakes of magnitude above 7.0 in the Richter scale in Mexico, before yesterday's quake, that was just the THIRD.

So, predicting an earthquake of magnitude above 7.0 IN MEXICO is even more difficult than predicting one for "any part of the world".

The mathematical odds of this being a "coincidence" are negligible.

Originally posted by lke123
I don't think that Obama wants to point haarp to the exact location where his daughter is righ now.

Do you know that the Obama daughter is in Oaxaca with his friends?

I do. It creates drama and human emotion.


Great for re-election.

mmmm this is turning out very interesting indeed. I truly believe its a mix of our solar system being affected by something and HAARP stimulation. In a interesting way.

Gaah feeling of slight helplessness. I dont like how we cant trust our governments to give us information.

There is a big difference between healthy skepticism and psychotic skepticism.

On healthy skepticism you demand good proof in order to believe in something.

On psychotic skepticism, you deny everything, including the hard evidence, in order to not accept the reality of anything that defies your "scientific" and "rational" vision of world.

Originally posted by GLontra
The mathematical odds of this being a "coincidence" are negligible.

I kind of feel like we've already been over this.

No odds are negligible, given enough time and opportunity.

Again, what are the odds that YOU were born with the exact type of personality and the exact set of parents you have and the exact group of siblings you may or may not have in the exact city, state, province, country....etc.

Think about it. Take every single decision you've ever made throughout your entire life. What are the odds that one person would have made every single one of those decisions just as you have? Pretty darned small, huh? But sure enough, there you are having done just that.

We only think such odds are so spectacularly amazing because our context, our viewport, is so small. Any single thing you see happen in life has amazingly small odds of ever having happened, if you consider all the slight things that may have changed it from happening.

Originally posted by camus154

Originally posted by GLontra
The mathematical odds of this being a "coincidence" are negligible.

I kind of feel like we've already been over this.

No odds are negligible, given enough time and opportunity.

Okay, so, how many earthquake drills happened in the WHOLE HISTORY OF HUMANITY?

My "guesstimate" is that less than 10 thousand earthquake drills happened in the WHOLE HISTORY OF HUMANITY until today.

If the odds of this "coincidence" are something like 1 in 2 million, and only 10 thousand earthquake drills happened in the whole human history, so you can't talk about "enough time and opportunity" yet...

Originally posted by GLontra
Okay, so, how many earthquake drills happened in the WHOLE HISTORY OF HUMANITY?

My "guesstimate" is that less than 10 thousand earthquake drills happened in the WHOLE HISTORY OF HUMANITY until today.

If the odds of this "coincidence" are something like 1 in 2 million, and only 10 thousand earthquake drills happened in the whole human history, so you can't talk about "enough time and opportunity" yet...

But, with respect, that's still missing the larger point. It doesn't matter how small the odds are of this having happened. No matter how big or small, that doesn't guarantee some larger significance. That's all I'm trying to say.

Yes, I agree with you...these odds are exceedingly small and it would be dismissive to simply say, "So?"

But there is also a middle ground. The skeptic can say, "That is intriguing...it's enough to make me pay more attention." But that's about how far a skeptic can really go with such logic. Pay attention and wait for more info. Because odds alone, no matter how impressive, aren't enough to form any kind of conclusion.

Originally posted by camus154

Originally posted by GLontra
The mathematical odds of this being a "coincidence" are negligible.

I kind of feel like we've already been over this.

No odds are negligible, given enough time and opportunity.

Again, what are the odds that YOU were born with the exact type of personality and the exact set of parents you have and the exact group of siblings you may or may not have in the exact city, state, province, country....etc.

Think about it. Take every single decision you've ever made throughout your entire life. What are the odds that one person would have made every single one of those decisions just as you have? Pretty darned small, huh? But sure enough, there you are having done just that.

We only think such odds are so spectacularly amazing because our context, our viewport, is so small. Any single thing you see happen in life has amazingly small odds of ever having happened, if you consider all the slight things that may have changed it from happening.

consider this ...

Winning a lottery is exceedingly common ... People win the lottery all the time. Just visit the lottery site and read the winners stories.

Why are there so many winners? Because so many are playing ....

What are the odds of YOU winning the lottery? Not good huh?

Considering the number of lottery players per day it is not unexpected that someone within a month or so will become a winner.

If there were hundreds of thousands of EQ drills planned every day throughout the world then I would see this as a nonevent. However, there aren't. Making this event statistically significant in its deviation from chance ....

Originally posted by camus154

Originally posted by GLontra
Okay, so, how many earthquake drills happened in the WHOLE HISTORY OF HUMANITY?

My "guesstimate" is that less than 10 thousand earthquake drills happened in the WHOLE HISTORY OF HUMANITY until today.

If the odds of this "coincidence" are something like 1 in 2 million, and only 10 thousand earthquake drills happened in the whole human history, so you can't talk about "enough time and opportunity" yet...

But there is also a middle ground. The skeptic can say, "That is intriguing...it's enough to make me pay more attention." But that's about how far a skeptic can really go with such logic. Pay attention and wait for more info. Because odds alone, no matter how impressive, aren't enough to form any kind of conclusion.

This is EXACTLY what I have MYSELF started to do since about 1 year ago.

I think I am a skeptic, but a "healthy" one. Since I started to be confronted with some "astonishing odds" and some "hard evidence" about certain phenomena, I started to PAY MORE ATTENTION.

This is what I do. I don't claim any conclusion. For example: to me, it's clear now that the so called "188-day cycle" is somehow real. But I don't jump to any conclusion of WHY it happens. I have no idea why it happens. But now I need to PAY ATTENTION to this.



“There are more things between heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy" (Shakespeare)

The current state of human science is EXTREMELY PRIMITIVE, and we know VERY FEW about the Universe.

Im going to be the first one to post an extremely hypothetical here but I felt it as necessary for some reason.

I wonder if these "coincidences" aren’t consciously planned but subconsciously. I was watching Ian Lungold explain the Mayan calendar and how the age of "conscious co-creation" is what were entering and what it means.



Basically we will be able to create our realities with our passions and thoughts and it will become more and more apparent as everything speeds up.

So basically what may be happening is that the “drills” are consciously planting the thought into the collective conscious and people focus on this to the point they manifest it. This would explain synchronicity and what some people call a “glitch in the matrix” its merely our subconscious thoughts effecting our reality. According to the theory this will become so common that people will become conscious of their thoughts and the effect they have on the “real world”. According to the theory this is why TPTB want to inundate us with as much fear as possible and scenarios of cataclysm…they want us to unknowingly manifest it. The more people collectively concentrating on doom will actually manifest that doom scenario.

So basically we will be experiencing more and more of these glitches in the matrix and coincidental synchronistic moments until we are forced to acknowledge that they are coming from US. Hopefully we survive our initial manifestations.

Think about all the “looming” disasters that are on people’s mind and are being planted in their mind. If these disasters are all manifested at quicker and quicker rates 2012 might turn out to be a problem. If people realize their thoughts and fears are creating their reality they may be able to switch modes and focus on what they want instead of what they don’t want.

I’m not saying I buy into this but I tell you the coincidences I’ve personally experienced and noticed the past year or so have been enough to make me scratch my head and consider these theories a bit more.

Oh and Ian Lungold’s explanation of the Mayan calendar makes a ton of sense to me…

reply to post by Sly1one


Everything is possible...

If this is true, we are going to eventually find more evidence of this sometime in the future...

Let's wait and see... With open eyes and an open mind...

This is pretty messed up...Oh ya and does anyone see the fnord here or is it just me???