The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Even in a long term bear market there are rally's. Looks like a nice simple technical trading range setting up along the 200 SMA. Most of the markets including oil and the Dow futures have been drifting up this morning.

It will be interesting to see how long the uptrend slope lasts. We would need some big news event like a mass stimulus package or the complete collapse of the dollar to break back above 8400.

According to the NSA if oil gets too cheap it reduces the incentive to develop technologies like oil from sand and deeper US domestic drilling. Low fuel prices also get people into wasteful fuel use habits. OPEC has a fair market target price of $80 to $85 a barrel for oil and yesterday in Italy, G8 leaders agreed that 70-80 dollars was a fair price to pay for a barrel of oil. Opec thinks they will get back up to $75 a barrel by the end of the year, but Iran would have to Nuke the Strait of Hormuz to get above that.

[edit on 9-7-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

Jobless claims down 52k to 565k and CNBS goes wild with praise :shk:

4 Wk moving average down 10k to 606k

on a Holiday short week even...skewed to the max...watch all markets rise till someone realizes...

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Decreased to 565,000 Last Week

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest since January, as early automotive plant closures altered the timing of layoffs that typically happen at this time of year.

Initial jobless claims fell by 52,000 to 565,000, a lower level than forecast, in the week ended July 4, from a revised 617,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Meanwhile, the number of people collecting unemployment insurance jumped to a record in the prior week.

The news is reporting that this was "better than expected".

This gives us a good idea of how much they are fudging the numbers though, 52,000 were not able to either A) Get unemployment B) Found another job C) Are now underemployed.

So whats the real number of unemployed?

www.cnbc.com...

Jobless claims are down more than expected by 52,000.

This moved up futures.

But a bad story also came out today:

www.cnbc.com...

Retail sales missed the mark.


The retail sales are being totally ignored right now. That is, unless the markets trim gains at the end of the day, it will be hailed due to retail sales missing their mark.

Originally posted by Hastobemoretolife
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Decreased to 565,000 Last Week

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest since January, as early automotive plant closures altered the timing of layoffs that typically happen at this time of year.

Initial jobless claims fell by 52,000 to 565,000, a lower level than forecast, in the week ended July 4, from a revised 617,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Meanwhile, the number of people collecting unemployment insurance jumped to a record in the prior week.

The news is reporting that this was "better than expected".

This gives us a good idea of how much they are fudging the numbers though, 52,000 were not able to either A) Get unemployment B) Found another job C) Are now underemployed.

So whats the real number of unemployed?

this number was changed, back in the 80's under reagan, so i have been adding 50% to get a ballpark estimate. this is just a personal guess. so... i'd be looking at around 15% unemployment...besides they don't want the people to know what the real financial numbers of the U.S. economy look like.

Why retailers are short? well what can we say, perhaps because those lucky enough to have a job that generates extra income are SAVING for a rainy day.

Or those that still have jobs but doesn't generate anything after taxes have not MONEY to spend, after their credit card LIMITS have been cut.

Let rejoice people the unemployment claims are down, Better than expected

I can tell you this much, my husband and me now that we know that his salary will be cut by December thanks to Robin hood Obama we are paying off everything we own so yes we have not money to SPEND but we have money to pay bills off..



[edit on 9-7-2009 by marg6043]

reply to post by jimmyx


I'm sure the government numbers are ugly, ugly. That sounds about right for the unemployment. I would even venture to say its even higher than that.

reply to post by marg6043


You mean "Robin THE hood" Obama

That sucks though, all this "better than expected" talk is really getting under my skin. It's like yea you know you got shot but the bullet isn't as deep as we expected. The point is I got shot you stupid idiots.

Mean while the number of people on unemployment is 6.9 million the highest it has ever been. But you know only 550,000 on unemployment is "better than expected".

I found this site that perhaps somebody already here has posted a link to it, many pages ago.

This site shows the real unemployment and economic data numbers, not the government factitious numbers, but the real analyze of how data used to be tabulated back when the government was more honest

Shadow Government Statistics
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting

www.shadowstats.com...

What we have now is the same trend back in the 70s and 80s when the working class and educated class had to lower their standards and seek jobs for economic reasons.

The difference today is that the same group of working class is now becoming the working poor, as jobs has been shipped oversea in favor of lower income jobs.

Because companies believe that profits are priority over the well being of the working class.

The distribution of wealth from the middle income class to the elite class is now more marked than ever in this nation.

After all companies CEOs need all the profits to maintain their lavish live styles after all they earned when they got their status.

After all we can not have the companies CEOs owning one house like the working class, they need a house for every season.

America the nigh mare of the working class and now working poor but the dream of the ruling class.

[edit on 9-7-2009 by marg6043]

Don't expect any of those laid off workers to be going back to work anytime soon...

GM is abandoning 16 factories in Michigan, Indiana, New York, Ohio and other states as it uses a bankruptcy sale to put its best assets into a new entity. Many plants are contaminated, requiring costly cleanup.

Chrysler LLC will ditch seven factories and an office building by 2010 as part of a similar bankruptcy plan that created Chrysler Group LLC...

We tax payers will undoubtedly be stuck with the tab for site remediation and clean up...
Source

And it doesn't matter that those who lost their jobs in the first wave of layoffs are NOW starting to lose unemployment benefits...

IMO it will still go down a few notch until other big corporations go bankrupt in september/october.

And they should really stop reporting only the layoffs according to the company surveys... publish the household survey too and take the middle-ground for the official number?

Example:
Company survey jobs lost in may: 345.000
Household survey jobs lost in may: 775.000

Originally posted by Hx3_1963


...watch all markets rise till someone realizes...

. . . that there is really nothing above and nothing below.
www.blackdragonproductions.com...

While I believe that those losing jobs will not work for the time being, you people are forgetting that the real working class and educated class will work regardless of the income cut.

Why? because that was the trend back in the 70s and 80s.

Is people in this nation (my husband included) that will work regardless even if he have to work two or three jobs on lower income ranges until things get better.

This call working for economic reasons, one problem here, the way our nation has lost its better paying jobs to oversea the recovery is going to be one that will belonger than expected.

So if we look at the trend of working class and educated class job loss, this one seems to be gone for ever.

The nation is steadily getting into two classes the ruling class and the working poor, (those that work two and three jobs and still can not make ends meet)

Commodities are coming off of their higher levels and so are many of the stocks that popped during pre-market levels. I sold my euro holding since I have to go to work at 11AM, but this is weak to say the least.

reply to post by DaddyBare


You are right but is one big problem, as the taxable income of the working class keep shrinking the government will lose its revenue to keep their over inflated and unsustainable deficits.

That is something I am waiting to see happening.

I don't feel right buying right now...the dollar hasn't really gone up as much as it should and the financials still have not corrected as resource stocks have. As I have said before. But we will see how things turn out. The calls for a retest of the lows will grow louder if things go down more, but I will ignore them. I'll take new drops as a gift and a necessity, but not as a prediction of a crash coming next week...

reply to post by marg6043


It's already happening, just wait until the tax receipts come out for this year. I see bad things in the future.

The worse part about it all is the news that keeps coming out is getting even worse.

The markets had just about all the gains wiped out already for the morning.

So they are talking about the PPIP program...if I was participating in this program I would be VERY worried that Pimco and Goldman Sachs both withdrew their participation

reply to post by Hastobemoretolife


Thanks, I just looked at the markets numbers and it went from positive to negative just with a blink of an eye.

And it just opened.

I really thought that it was going to be a green day today.


BTW since Brown comment on the "green shots", it seems that today every analyst is starting to complain about the "term green shots" and how is been used, because now they recognized that is not such "green shots" sprouting any where yet

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
I don't feel right buying right now...the dollar hasn't really gone up as much as it should and the financials still have not corrected as resource stocks have. As I have said before. But we will see how things turn out. The calls for a retest of the lows will grow louder if things go down more, but I will ignore them. I'll take new drops as a gift and a necessity, but not as a prediction of a crash coming next week...

Go with your gut... the markets opened higher but minutes later did a 180 and plunging... to soon to say what's going to happen but the sell orders are rolling in... the rest test will come just before closing... that will give us a real feel for which the winds of fortune will blow

reply to post by Hastobemoretolife


If you really want bad news then go read my post... Audit finds $787 billion in stimulus not being used for intended purpose...
www.abovetopsecret.com...