The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


I'm working on a super automated algorithm just like GS.

In all honesty though I'm teaching myself how to program and I'm going to build a program that analyzes charts and market movements. Then eventually add a prediction engine into it, I figure at my current rate of progress I'm about 2 years away from having just the analysis part done.

Although I do think it would serve a purpose. Instead of having to analyze the charts by hand it would be in one report, and you would be able to look back and pick a point in time if something doesn't seem right.

I don't know more of an exercise in a complex programming task. If will have any use only time will tell.

reply to post by GreenBicMan

Well seeing that the .gov really only has their hand in AIG,GM,FM,FM,42% of Citi.. although it really shouldnt be like that, it really isnt that bad IMO that is.

Do you really think it will stop there?!

But Id rather have that 100x over than see everything just totally drop and the USA is no longer the USA but part of the NAU or something - or in a lesser scenario just chaos in the streets, no electricity etc..

Hopefully the ends justify the means

Unpopular political moves become more likely once a govt. controls/has its cronies in major players in an economy. Think about it.

As for the desire to do anything to avoid collapse/chaos I admit that is a strong case. But in the bigger picture at least some of what was done to avoid collapse was really just smoke & mirrors.

Unless you believe moves to date have actually created a firm basis for future growth.

Bear in mind what it has cost to keep the system afloat to date.

reply to post by Hastobemoretolife


Be prepared to pull your hair out

I have been doing this for 10+ hours a day literally for months

Programming is one part..

Making money in volatile - trending - volatile-volatile-trending markets is another

Also, if you are holding positions overnight or not etc. and the gain/decay that ensues from doing so...

I have close to 1,200,000 lines now of excel information in various forms... what software are you using?

reply to post by pause4thought


Yes, there is always a price to pay isn't there?

I think what needed to be done was done and if there is something else to be done - well that is unavoidable

While I think the landscape has changed for the temp. future you have to remember, american consumers have a very short memory, and it wont be too long again when the unemployment thing turns that things should start picking up again

Look at it this way, we all know jobs aren't going to turn till mid to late next year, knowing this we can make a play % wise correlating the SP500 and DJIA to unemployment percentage, and that is actually something I am working on right now..

I will update this thread if I find something interesting

Anyone smell fish?


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e6de8a203c82.png[/atsimg]

Source

Originally posted by stander

Originally posted by DaddyBare
So the DOW is at 8,121.12 and falling, -42.48 right now on the live tracker... Any bets on if today will be the day the DOW drops below the 8,000 mark?

It will end where it started. Lunch hour belching . . .

www.cnbc.com...



Stander!



Try to make us some money, will ya?

Yes, sir. Right away, sir.
www.cnbc.com...

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by Hastobemoretolife

 

Be prepared to pull your hair out

I have been doing this for 10+ hours a day literally for months

Programming is one part..

Making money in volatile - trending - volatile-volatile-trending markets is another

Also, if you are holding positions overnight or not etc. and the gain/decay that ensues from doing so...

I have close to 1,200,000 lines now of excel information in various forms... what software are you using?

1.2 million lines of excel info? In what? Code?

Also...you aren't making any money and you are spending 10+ hrs doing this, that is depressing Just remember the tens of thousands of ppl over the decades to try and chart the markets and predict what they'll do and in the end the markets evade their grasp...

reply to post by GreenBicMan


I'm going to develop my own software. The base program will be written in C++ with a plug-in system to be able to utilize Python scripts.

Python has this imaging library called PIL that can analyze images. So it could analyze charts the peaks and valleys, and could report certain data points that you plug in.

My intent is just to do it as a complex programming exercise I feel that it will serve absolutely no purpose other than just an exercise in programming. The chances of it being able to predict anything within in sort of reasonable range of accuracy is slim to none.

If It does work(I highly doubt it) I could stand to make lots and lots of money. Let me repeat though this is nothing but a programming exercise. Also I would probably need a super computer to sort through all the data for it to even be useful.

Right now just the design for it even to work I would have to compile 100+ years of data to be able to formulate the equations necessary.

Human nature is unpredictable and always will be. The purpose of it is just to learn more about programming.

It is my prediction with the leaps in technology that we are experiencing programming will become a skill that is vital to get ahead, as more and more things become automated. That is all my opinion at least.

I think we are on the edge of a breakthrough in technology that will bring us out of the current depression that we are about to enter into.

Again all my opinion. The point of the program is not to make money, but more for me to build a skill set and become knowledgeable in programming.

Although I do think the current markets could be predicted just because there is so much government manipulation, but you would need the raw data that only the FED has access to. But you wouldn't be able to predict the over all levels of the DOW, NYSE, NASDAQ, S&P etc. but certain stocks that the controlling owners of the FED has interest in. But, there is noway to get the info unless you were a controlling member and or in the "know".

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Statistics..

Coding I am amateur at best

I am getting better though

EDIT: Well according to all my backtesting I should always be able to make money with my automated trading programs.. but I only have the past 2.5 years and I at least need 5-10 to feel comfortable with current market environment.. which of course costs EVEN MORE MONEY to get all the accurate bid and ask data for these timelines.. so its an ongoing adventure/// once I get this all sorted it will be much easier to sort through, so far I can point to finding inconsistencies in the market and taking advantage of them at a pace that exceeds the gains of the SP500 over the past 19 years (since 1990)

[edit on 8-7-2009 by GreenBicMan]

reply to post by Hastobemoretolife


Well good thinking #1

#2 - there is software that does all this already, but its not freeware or anything

There is something though I rec. you start with..

Download NINJATRADER it is still free to my knowledge and you can begin your adventure with that, you can also code - I dont believe in C++ though, but their prop. code which is actually pretty easy IMO..

Start there, then once you get comfortable let me know and I can point you in the right direction

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Thanks.

The reason why I picked the financial markets to do is because it is a good mix of math and news.

I'll be sure to check that out though.

I know they already have programs, but like I said its more of an exercise to increase my knowledge of programs.

So stocks end up off their lows. Tomorrow a few things are happening. Initial claims and wholesale inventories. Also...NG storage is being reported on Thursday...I believe...Initial claims are estimated to be at 600K. I guess if these are below expectations, we could get some confidence.

Something funny. If you go on cnbc's homepage, they have 2 links to stories. One is from Amex's CEO who says it is way too soon to call a recovery.. Then right below that, JP Morgan's vice chairman says a recovery is near.

Hmmm

Alcoa reports a loss of 26 cents per share.

And Marg............

It is better than expected

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

JP Morgan's vice chairman says a recovery is near.

I think he is getting JP Morgan's recovery confused with the economy.

Nobody knows, they are trying to hide the fact we are in a process of debt deflation. Once the info goes mainstream things will get really bad. Instead they are trying to act like the girlfriend breaking up with the boyfriend by using the line, "It's not you it's me". In a round about way.

Almost every stock is rallying off of AA's better than expected loss in after hours trading. Alcoa is used as a barometer for economic health but this is a mistake. FedEx and UPS are more of economic barometers than AA. But we may see a little push up because of these earnings which were better than expected.

[edit on 8-7-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


I too don't really see why an Aluminum producer is the barometer for the economy? Really doesn't make much sense, when you take into account the vast majority of the economy has nothing to do with Aluminum.

As for JPM saying recovery around the corner, I have just one thing to say:

Why would anyone listen to a company that helped create the mess we are in?

I wonder how long the DOW can go staying between 8000-9000.

reply to post by Rockpuck


Stander could tell you the time & date, but he's just too selfish to share it. Meantime he gets his kicks from throwing a few crumbs to the masses, letting them know what lies, say, half a day ahead.

I'd be satisfied just knowing how he invests his winnings.

Hey stander, are you in Zurich again today?

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

I too don't really see why an Aluminum producer is the barometer for the economy? Really doesn't make much sense, when you take into account the vast majority of the economy has nothing to do with Aluminum.

As for JPM saying recovery around the corner, I have just one thing to say:

Why would anyone listen to a company that helped create the mess we are in?

I wonder how long the DOW can go staying between 8000-9000.

AA, even though up 6% AH, can easily end down tomorrow with the rest of the market. AA did better than expected due to cost cutting, not economic growth. I have seen so many stocks up huge AH and end up down the next day after earnings. I wouldn't be fooled...Especially if the initial claims are worse. Which, one of the reasons AA came above expectations, is because of job cuts Again, this doesn't mean I am totally bearish on the markets, and I did sell my dollar holding and opened a temp. position for the euro vs. dollar. But that doesn't mean on the NYSE things will rally by the end of the day. But who knows.

reply to post by Rockpuck


Its considered like "groundhogs day"

It really doesnt matter at all, until something happens either positive or negative against it, then of course it matters.

Every qtr. we hear the same thing over and over and if they post good profits and the markets move up its of course bc of that, and if they post bad and markets move down, of course, it is because of that.

Just like everyday the headline is either positive or negative because of the same reason over and over and over and over

Nikkei 225 9,291.06 2:00AM ET Down 129.69 (1.38%)

Global stocks struggle after yen surge
www.reuters.com...

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Japanese stocks fell on Thursday after the yen spiked to a five-month high against the dollar overnight, with investors seeking to trim riskier bets amid growing concerns about the health of the global economy.

Doubts about the prospects for a swift and strong recovery also weighed on oil prices, which tumbled more than 4 percent on Wednesday, but other Asian stock markets steadied after a late rally on Wall Street.

As the confidence in recovery shown in the second quarter further evaporated, money found its way into government bond markets. U.S. Treasury prices shot up sharply after a $19 billion auction of 10-year debt met surprisingly strong demand, and two-year Japanese government bond yields fell to a 3- year low.

"As optimism over the outlook for the global economy had gone too far, such a view has been fading. It will take a while before we see the economy recover," said Akitsugu Bandou, a senior economist at Okasan Securities.

More at Links...

Long-awaited correction confronts Wall Street
www.reuters.com...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street's spring surge looks to be wilting in the heat, judging by the emergence of bearish chart patterns, anemic trading volumes and rising volatility.

For two months U.S. equities have defied expectations for a correction, but charts show that major averages are finally on the cusp of their first significant pullback since the start of the March rally due to worries about economic growth.

"This is a start of a correction," said John Kosar, market technician and president of Asbury Research in Chicago.

"The market has decided that for now the October 2007 cyclical downtrend is still in play. It doesn't mean we have to go back under the lows, although that is possible."

CIT urges FDIC on issue of guaranteed debt
www.reuters.com...

July 9 (Reuters) - CIT Group Inc (CIT.N), a commercial U.S. lender struggling to finance its business, is pressing U.S. regulators to allow it to issue government-backed bonds to allay concerns over its financial health, the Financial Times reported on its website late on Wednesday.

CIT converted to a bank holding company in the fourth quarter of 2008 to qualify for U.S. government funds, but it has been unable to issue government-backed debt as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) has yet to approve its application.

The FT cited people close to the situation as saying CIT, which has about $75 billion in assets, had already drastically cut lending, but warned that without the FDIC's assistance the company might be forced to ask the Treasury and the Federal Reserve for help.

A former government official familiar with the situation told the paper CIT and the regulators were meeting almost every week but it was not clear why the FDIC had not yet approved the application.

:shk:

BofA, JPMorgan move cardholders to variable rates
www.reuters.com...

NEW YORK, July 8 (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) are switching some customers who have fixed-rate credit cards to potentially higher variable rates, acting before a new law takes effect that limits what card issuers can charge.

The largest U.S. banks, which are also the largest card issuers, plan to tie more cardholders' rates to the prime rate, a benchmark that is traditionally 3 percentage points above the Federal Reserve's key lending rate, the federal funds rate.

China confirms Rio Tinto staff arrests
www.reuters.com...

SYDNEY/BEIJING (Reuters) - China confirmed on Thursday the arrest of an Australian mining executive and three others on spying allegations, in a case that has rattled currency markets and raised questions about China-Australia relations.

The four employees of miner Rio Tinto were arrested on charges of stealing state secrets, the official Xinhua news agency said, citing Shanghai state security authorities.

"The case was being investigated according to law," Xinhua said. It gave no further details.

[edit on 7/9/2009 by Hx3_1963]