Corona Virus Updates Part 2

Good news Detroit .... So far
Detroit Metro Airport traveler is cleared of coronavirus

The individual did not meet the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for coronavirus, the statement said. 

The criteria for testing includes fever or lower respiratory illness and travel history to mainland China within 14 days of symptom onset or exposure to a laboratory-confirmed novel coronavirus case. 

a reply to: RobinKuiper

Have WeChat account with about 200 friends and family. Wife’s account has maybe 500. We see things there before they appear on Twitter or other places usually about a day before sometimes more or less time.

Plus we both follow official dashboards and stuff. I use it less since moving back but since virus I’m on it in tandem with PC or iPad daily.

a reply to: Ohanka

If hospitals are overwhelmed, and a number of potential survivors will only survive with antibiotics vs bacterial superinfections, antiviral treatment (potentially), and / or ventilator support, then I guess 15% is a reasonable mortality rate. China has likely been overwhelmed. You can maybe only achieve the 2% death rate with a 1st class (not overwhelmed) healthcare system. The non-1st world countries (sorry China - 2nd world at best!) won't be able to cope.

The point now: lets slow this down everywhere else in the world possible, and hope the rest of us don't have our healthcare systems overwhelmed. That means: home quarantine, and primarily home treatment until things get beyond home treatment capabilities … since our governments aren't doing any national quarantines, except (respectfully, for the first time ever) North Korea (except even THEY added positive cases today), we are left with whatever we can do on the home front, seemingly. Bummer. The cat was out of the bag already so to speak a couple weeks ago. I don't fault anyone, to be honest -- this is just human nature.

originally posted by: 1Angrylightbulb
a reply to: Necrose

Looking back on the bno news timeline, the number of cases in just Hubei have been slowly increasing for days with some fluctuations of course. I'm not sure how you say its decreasing...

it was over 3156 new cases in Hubei yesterday. Today = 2987 (Hubei) ... tell me that's an increase and I'm gonna off myself.

originally posted by: Pommer89
a reply to: muzzleflash
How did I attack you, all I said was people come here for updates, yesterday and again today you are just spamming the thread, when you come on it turns into a debate constantly. I honestly thought it was for updates, I'll go elsewhere I thinks, cant be bothered with arguing

I didn't want to argue with you or anyone per se. I wanted to point out flaws in the process that everyone is so consumed in and believes wholeheartedly in. I was doing exactly what I should do, question and debate it.

Do you think that forums are created for only people that agree with you?

If I think the "updates" are fiction and can point out flaws in the reasoning, than I should be allowed to chime in and question the narrative.

If yall don't want to see me argue about things, don't argue with me. Especially don't personally attack me. Avoid giving me any reason to even notice the difference. Calling me out and shaming me as worthless only gives me a motive to hit the reply button and start defending myself.

This whole "dont post in my thread" garbage is just unacceptable. How would you feel if I came after you any time you posted what *you thought* was relevant and pertinent and attacked your posts as worthless wastes of time and asked you to stop posting because I didn't want to see anything to do with you? Maybe insulted a bit?

Especially considering I was on topic the whole time until YALL changed the topic to "ME" and all my flaws and personality failures. That is one of my least favorite topics - me and how much I suck. I didn't come to ATS to debate how much I suck and why no one wants to even hear/see me. I came here just to question other's beliefs and to share any cool info I discovered. I was hoping that others would treat me like a normal respectable human being. Of all places, this place I keep expecting to be decent.

originally posted by: Necrose

People on ATS be like: hey look, exponential increase.

Despite adding less new cases than the day before, it's still exponential because that's the math on ATS.

IF, and that is a big IF, the official numbers are correct, then this is good news. Looks like in a week or so it should reach peak, and then start declining. One can only hope.

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: jedi_hamster

originally posted by: Necrose

This is what DYING OUT or CONTAINMENT looks like. Today we're gonna get a lower % increase than yesterday, it's 16% now, gonna be around 18% once the China report comes in.

this is what complete BS looks like. i did catch up on this thread already, but in case someone's still catching up and comes across those, i prefer to explain in simple terms, since apparently noone did.

that graph is a manipulation. it's a growth rate. think of it as acceleration. when car's acceleration goes down, does it mean it's slowing down? of course not. it's just moving ahead with constant speed when the acceleration goes down to zero.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: ARM1968
Err, no it isn’t. Even the skewed official figures show its going up. a reply to: Necrose

I don't know man, I feel stupid explaining elementary school maths, simply put : a daily increase in % is declining, hence it's slowing down.

you should feel that way, since it's entirely wrong.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: ARM1968

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: ARM1968
Err, no it isn’t. Even the skewed official figures show its going up. a reply to: Necrose

I don't know man, I feel stupid explaining elementary school maths, simply put : a daily increase in % is declining, hence it's slowing down.

You’re an idiot. Sorry to break it to you, as you’re clearly unaware. Enjoy.

Ok let's say hypothetically...
Today's increase is going to be 18% and the rate by which the number of confirmed cases increases is declining 1% per day.
Tomorrow 17%, then 16, 15, 14 and in 2 weeks it hits 0%, so 18 days from now the daily increase is going to be 0% = 0 new cases. What then? It has to top out at some point if it's not speeding up, but slowing down.

Instead of saying I'm an idiot, show me what's wrong with my calculations so both of us can be "aware".

EDIT: again, we're using China's officially reported numbers

0% daily increase of new cases DOES NOT EQUAL 0 new cases. it's a goddamn INCREASE.

once the increase of new cases goes down to zero, the number of new cases daily becomes constant, so the growth becomes linear. so far it isn't, it's exponential, as can be seen on every "infections per day" graph on the web available for this virus.

and that's all using the official numbers of course.

then comes this:
Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths

Netizens also noticed that each time the screen with the large numbers appears, it shows a comparison with the previous day's data which demonstrates a "reasonable" incremental increase, much like comparisons of official numbers. This has led some netizens to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and "processed" data.

check out recent videos showing smog in Wuhan. in a city with virtually all the traffic stopped. with all factories shut down. then ask yourself, what the hell could they be burning?

i know it was suggested they're burning bodies. i know Tencent leak was mentioned already. still, this thread gets more and more chaotic day after day, so i figured it could use a nudge. ignore all the naysayers, they'll just keep flooding you with distorted facts to "prove" their point.

focus, people.

ARE YOU SH!TTING ME? SO TELL ME HOW MANY NEW CASES WOULD THERE BE TODAY IF THE INCREASE WAS 0 %?

THE % IS NOT HOW MUCH MORE THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT % INCREASE FROM GRAND TOTAL !!!!!!!! SO 1% INCREASE WOULD BE ~250 cases, 10% = 2500 CASES, 100% = 25000 and the fkn 0% increase means = 0.0000000 new cases so the number of TOTAL cases stays the same as yesterday....

You are WRONG.

You are talking about daily INCREASE in percentage. If increase in numbers on yesterday is 0% and yesterday there were 2000 new cases then today there are 2000 new cases.

You like to think you're smarter than everyone else but you aren't.

Suggest you go back to kindergarten and learn some maths.

Bruh then we are -7% on that chart not +12%

For those that missed my link: www.abovetopsecret.com...

Morning news about the Diamond Princess, the ship is still under quarantine and the nationalities of the passengers are being released. (slowly as I take it) Might be more in the international papers with the actually numbers.

THERE IS NO PANIC GUYS HERE IN JAPAN

Yes, you might store up on some food and water and whatever, but hey guys, don't start rumors of "panic". Last night all I saw was lines of people trying to buy mask and those people were greatly disappointed because of rumors that stores still had mask or shipments were soon to arrive.

Masks help with those that don't like pollen and some protection against the flu. The corona virus, maybe not so much.
Of course, if you have a cold , wear the dang thing and stay out of the public eye.

If you go out shopping, remember when returning home to wash your hands and gargle some. That's the advice of our friends that are pharmacist here. Sorry to say, but they feel the rush on mask for the virus, well, ... she left it up to my imagination whether I should wear one or not. It's winter here and I'm wearing one because I actually don't want to catch the flu or cold. Plus this morning back to the hospital, CT scan evaluation. Took a bad spill and really took a heavy hit to my chest. So I'll have no Up Date at 9:30 Tokyo time on what is happening in Japan.

Thanks for watching my threads.

a reply to: muzzleflash
As this virus infects us one way or another, I enjoy
reading your contributions.
Some people just want to get under our skin, and
sometimes I take them on and sometimes I don't. I agree
with your part on marriage.

On the subject of viruses and getting rid of the infection, has anyone seen Phage-e-poo?
I hope he didn't take a cruise in Japan, or celebrate the New Year in China.

This guy POWER SEMI thinks 12% increase means we got 12% more cases than yesterday even tho yesterday was around 4000 and we got 2900 today so far DDDDDDDD

IT'S -7% over yesterday (waiting for China so gonna be like -4%) but still.... LMAO !

originally posted by: Fowlerstoad
a reply to: Ohanka

If hospitals are overwhelmed, and a number of potential survivors will only survive with antibiotics vs bacterial superinfections, antiviral treatment (potentially), and / or ventilator support, then I guess 15% is a reasonable mortality rate. China has likely been overwhelmed. You can maybe only achieve the 2% death rate with a 1st class (not overwhelmed) healthcare system. The non-1st world countries (sorry China - 2nd world at best!) won't be able to cope.

The point now: lets slow this down everywhere else in the world possible, and hope the rest of us don't have our healthcare systems overwhelmed. That means: home quarantine, and primarily home treatment until things get beyond home treatment capabilities … since our governments aren't doing any national quarantines, except (respectfully, for the first time ever) North Korea, we are left with whatever we can do on the home front, seemingly. Bummer.

China's system is sub-par, but they are managing a 2% rate currently based on the numbers I've been given.

That's why my estimate for 1st world nations is under 1% total mortality rate. This virus may be weaker than I anticipated and in fact may be below mild.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: jedi_hamster

originally posted by: Necrose

This is what DYING OUT or CONTAINMENT looks like. Today we're gonna get a lower % increase than yesterday, it's 16% now, gonna be around 18% once the China report comes in.

this is what complete BS looks like. i did catch up on this thread already, but in case someone's still catching up and comes across those, i prefer to explain in simple terms, since apparently noone did.

that graph is a manipulation. it's a growth rate. think of it as acceleration. when car's acceleration goes down, does it mean it's slowing down? of course not. it's just moving ahead with constant speed when the acceleration goes down to zero.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: ARM1968
Err, no it isn’t. Even the skewed official figures show its going up. a reply to: Necrose

I don't know man, I feel stupid explaining elementary school maths, simply put : a daily increase in % is declining, hence it's slowing down.

you should feel that way, since it's entirely wrong.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: ARM1968

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: ARM1968
Err, no it isn’t. Even the skewed official figures show its going up. a reply to: Necrose

I don't know man, I feel stupid explaining elementary school maths, simply put : a daily increase in % is declining, hence it's slowing down.

You’re an idiot. Sorry to break it to you, as you’re clearly unaware. Enjoy.

Ok let's say hypothetically...
Today's increase is going to be 18% and the rate by which the number of confirmed cases increases is declining 1% per day.
Tomorrow 17%, then 16, 15, 14 and in 2 weeks it hits 0%, so 18 days from now the daily increase is going to be 0% = 0 new cases. What then? It has to top out at some point if it's not speeding up, but slowing down.

Instead of saying I'm an idiot, show me what's wrong with my calculations so both of us can be "aware".

EDIT: again, we're using China's officially reported numbers

0% daily increase of new cases DOES NOT EQUAL 0 new cases. it's a goddamn INCREASE.

once the increase of new cases goes down to zero, the number of new cases daily becomes constant, so the growth becomes linear. so far it isn't, it's exponential, as can be seen on every "infections per day" graph on the web available for this virus.

and that's all using the official numbers of course.

then comes this:
Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths

Netizens also noticed that each time the screen with the large numbers appears, it shows a comparison with the previous day's data which demonstrates a "reasonable" incremental increase, much like comparisons of official numbers. This has led some netizens to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and "processed" data.

check out recent videos showing smog in Wuhan. in a city with virtually all the traffic stopped. with all factories shut down. then ask yourself, what the hell could they be burning?

i know it was suggested they're burning bodies. i know Tencent leak was mentioned already. still, this thread gets more and more chaotic day after day, so i figured it could use a nudge. ignore all the naysayers, they'll just keep flooding you with distorted facts to "prove" their point.

focus, people.

ARE YOU SH!TTING ME? SO TELL ME HOW MANY NEW CASES WOULD THERE BE TODAY IF THE INCREASE WAS 0 %?

THE % IS NOT HOW MUCH MORE THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT % INCREASE FROM GRAND TOTAL !!!!!!!! SO 1% INCREASE WOULD BE ~250 cases, 10% = 2500 CASES, 100% = 25000 and the fkn 0% increase means = 0.0000000 new cases so the number of TOTAL cases stays the same as yesterday....

You are WRONG.

You are talking about daily INCREASE in percentage. If increase in numbers on yesterday is 0% and yesterday there were 2000 new cases then today there are 2000 new cases.

You like to think you're smarter than everyone else but you aren't.

Suggest you go back to kindergarten and learn some maths.

Bruh then we are -7% on that chart not +12%

What are you rattling on about and I don't like be your bra or whatever gobbledegook you speak.

You said if there was a zero percent INCREASE on yesterdays numbers then there would be zero new cases today.

Clearly that is WRONG.

If there were 2000 new cases yesterday and today a 10% increase there would be 2200 new cases.

If there were 2000 new cases yesterday and today there is zero percent growth there would be another 2000 new cases today.

Don't try changing the subject, admit you're wrong.

Coronavirus global death toll soars to nearly 500

www.cnn.com...

Updated 4:02 p.m. ET, February 5, 2020

originally posted by: Pommer89
a reply to: muzzleflash
How did I attack you, all I said was people come here for updates, yesterday and again today you are just spamming the thread, when you come on it turns into a debate constantly. I honestly thought it was for updates, I'll go elsewhere I thinks, cant be bothered with arguing

Ignore the fool. That’s what he’s here for. Same with Necrose. Their so transparent it’s almost cute.

Didnt we only get numbers out of Hubei so far? Is the full total in?

originally posted by: Necrose

People on ATS be like: hey look, exponential increase.

Despite adding less new cases than the day before, it's still exponential because that's the math on ATS.

Your own graph is showing an exponential curve -- follow the tips of the bars. It can be easily fit with an exponential. Are you looking at this pic and seeing linear growth?? I tried to walk you through it before, but really really need to take some maths.

originally posted by: ragiusnotiel
Didnt we only get numbers out of Hubei so far? Is the full total in?

add 400-800 for the Rest of China, still a decrease in growth.

originally posted by: Necrose

This guy POWER SEMI thinks 12% increase means we got 12% more cases than yesterday even tho yesterday was around 4000 and we got 2900 today so far

DDDDDDDD

IT'S -7% over yesterday (waiting for China so gonna be like -4%) but still....

LMAO !

That isn't what I said at all, I didn't mention 12% or -7% you did.

You're just showing your stupidity now.

If you're saying at 0% there would be no new cases, then how can there be more new cases at -7%.

You're contradicting yourself dummy.

This is simple math and you clearly don't understand it.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: jedi_hamster

originally posted by: Necrose

This is what DYING OUT or CONTAINMENT looks like. Today we're gonna get a lower % increase than yesterday, it's 16% now, gonna be around 18% once the China report comes in.

this is what complete BS looks like. i did catch up on this thread already, but in case someone's still catching up and comes across those, i prefer to explain in simple terms, since apparently noone did.

that graph is a manipulation. it's a growth rate. think of it as acceleration. when car's acceleration goes down, does it mean it's slowing down? of course not. it's just moving ahead with constant speed when the acceleration goes down to zero.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: ARM1968
Err, no it isn’t. Even the skewed official figures show its going up. a reply to: Necrose

I don't know man, I feel stupid explaining elementary school maths, simply put : a daily increase in % is declining, hence it's slowing down.

you should feel that way, since it's entirely wrong.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: ARM1968

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: ARM1968
Err, no it isn’t. Even the skewed official figures show its going up. a reply to: Necrose

I don't know man, I feel stupid explaining elementary school maths, simply put : a daily increase in % is declining, hence it's slowing down.

You’re an idiot. Sorry to break it to you, as you’re clearly unaware. Enjoy.

Ok let's say hypothetically...
Today's increase is going to be 18% and the rate by which the number of confirmed cases increases is declining 1% per day.
Tomorrow 17%, then 16, 15, 14 and in 2 weeks it hits 0%, so 18 days from now the daily increase is going to be 0% = 0 new cases. What then? It has to top out at some point if it's not speeding up, but slowing down.

Instead of saying I'm an idiot, show me what's wrong with my calculations so both of us can be "aware".

EDIT: again, we're using China's officially reported numbers

0% daily increase of new cases DOES NOT EQUAL 0 new cases. it's a goddamn INCREASE.

once the increase of new cases goes down to zero, the number of new cases daily becomes constant, so the growth becomes linear. so far it isn't, it's exponential, as can be seen on every "infections per day" graph on the web available for this virus.

and that's all using the official numbers of course.

then comes this:
Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths

Netizens also noticed that each time the screen with the large numbers appears, it shows a comparison with the previous day's data which demonstrates a "reasonable" incremental increase, much like comparisons of official numbers. This has led some netizens to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and "processed" data.

check out recent videos showing smog in Wuhan. in a city with virtually all the traffic stopped. with all factories shut down. then ask yourself, what the hell could they be burning?

i know it was suggested they're burning bodies. i know Tencent leak was mentioned already. still, this thread gets more and more chaotic day after day, so i figured it could use a nudge. ignore all the naysayers, they'll just keep flooding you with distorted facts to "prove" their point.

focus, people.

ARE YOU SH!TTING ME? SO TELL ME HOW MANY NEW CASES WOULD THERE BE TODAY IF THE INCREASE WAS 0 %?

THE % IS NOT HOW MUCH MORE THAN THE DAY BEFORE, BUT % INCREASE FROM GRAND TOTAL !!!!!!!! SO 1% INCREASE WOULD BE ~250 cases, 10% = 2500 CASES, 100% = 25000 and the fkn 0% increase means = 0.0000000 new cases so the number of TOTAL cases stays the same as yesterday....

you're trying hard to distort the facts. infection rate graphs usually show the number of cases, period. like here:
wuflu.live...

then you can calculate daily increase percentage-wise from previous day, for 2/4 it's 3921 vs 3237, so 21% increase, for 2/3 3237 vs 2873 so 12% increase, and so on.

but you just can't look at it that way, because even when those numbers show it's accelerating, it's a distorted view. your "grand total" changes every day, so for example if you have 5000 cases in day one, 6000 cases in day two and 7000 cases in day three, you can claim it's 20% increase in day two and 16% increase in day three, so "it's slowing down" - which is complete BS.

So if we assume everyone is telling the truth we are ok and China is over reacting to a flu.
If they are all lying then the virus has already spread globally ,a lot more then we’re being told. The original out break happened dec 29.between then and the quarantine ,of only Wuhan may I add , how many flights ,people etc spread .
How maybe countries were/are even testing for ncov in NON Wuhan ,Wuhan related ,cases?
How many old people in your country have already died of flu ‘complications” ? Do you think they were tested ? I know for a fact when getting pneumonia no tests were done or sent in, they give you antibiotics and say come back if that doesn’t work.
How much predictive programming was already done to warn you, Simpson’s, contagion movie (got it right down to a bat) , event 201, you’ve been warned .this was probably planned .
Once people realize it’s gone , it will be “too late”. The hospitals will be full. Sounds like they are already preparing quarantine stations in the us.
Ps . It’s just my conspiracy opinion on a conspiracy website