China for World super power in next 40 years

What in the name of all that is holy is going on in this thread?!??

Stop immediately with these insults. I don't care if they're directed at a person, a race, a region, a color, whatever. STOP.

Originally posted by Hawkssss
@Deadalus

Indian dude. In terms of aggression, no one can compare with you inidans. Take a look at this website and spin this one for us. China is small potato compared with what you peace-loving hindus have done. Plus, we chinese are twice richer than you and live on average 10 years longer than you so you better take care of your own business before sticking your nose over here.

Website depicting Indian atrocity against its many minorities: the muslims, the sikhs, chrisitians, buddists, kashmiries, etc.

indianterrorism.bravepages.com...

"Whether or not one agrees with President Clinton's policy in Kosovo, we went there to stop the `ethnic cleansing' of the Kosovars by the Serbian government. Yet we have averted our glance from a similar campaign throughout India , a situation the Indian Supreme Court described as `worse than a genocide.' This ethnic cleansing has taken the lives of over 250,000 Sikhs since 1984, over 200,000 Christians in Nagaland since 1947, over 60,000 Muslims in Kashmir since 1988, and thousands upon thousands of Dalits, Assamese, Manipuris, Tamils, and other minority peoples."

[edit on 14-11-2004 by Hawkssss]

And what does this have to do with China being isolationist or exapsionist?
You know Hawksss I think you're afraid of me "poking" my head here because i waste your case everytime!!

But lets entertain what you had to say about India, yes I saw that link and frankly one would just have to google for "chinese human rights violations" and you'd get a load of links. And that too when China tries to hide the truth of these violations.

But lets get this straight, the figures you quote for the no. of people killed in India may or may not be true. I won't dispute them. But these atrocities were caried out by the communities themselves, they took place at the street level with machetes and spears etc. etc. What hapened in kosovo was government backed and same with tianemmen.
The Indian government has ALWAYS been SECULAR and it HAS to be because otherwise it wont last in office for more than a term! Go read up on the recent elections. Communal violence in Gujarat. Even though there was no DIRECT PROOF that the govt had anything to do with it, they were voted out of office for failing to stop the violence soon enough. The people decide the course the country's taking not the govt. The people would never support any expasionist agenda which would endanger the lives of their own countrymen.You can NEVER say that about China. The people CANNOT voice their opinion.
Hell one can't even quote figures because there is no transparency!!I bet if we were to send international troops into china we'd find mass graves!

You talk about Kashmir, do you know that over 300,000 kashmiris were driven out of kashmir by the insurgents just because they were hindu? Do you know why? They tried to artificially prepare kashmir for "liberation" making making it a completely muslim population. Thats why the army had to step in. I seriously doubt whether 60,000 muslim civilians have been killed over the last decade by the army only, such violations and figures would be fodder for our INDEPENDANT FREE MEDIA.


And whats this crap about "Plus, we chinese are twice richer than you and live on average 10 years longer than you".

It seems you use this as you punchline!!
I think your just a kid. Grow up and stop throwing tantrums!!

Talk sense! I was talking about china being isolatinist/expansionist.
You diverted to India's communal violence. Stay on topic and control your overwhelming urge to post irrelevant nonsense

The United States of America is probably one of the greatest countries on earth, I don't think China can ever replace the US as a superpower. One reasonly mainly freedom: we have far more freedom than the chinese people, the china government even controls on what they watch. Freedom is the blood that runs through the veins of the United States of America, which will keep us as a great superpower.

Originally posted by CMCLA2003
The United States of America is probably one of the greatest countries on earth, I don't think China can ever replace the US as a superpower. One reasonly mainly freedom: we have far more freedom than the chinese people, the china government even controls on what they watch. Freedom is the blood that runs through the veins of the United States of America, which will keep us as a great superpower.

This is exactly the attitude that was exibited by the Roman populace just before it fell

Just wondering if anyone actually read the article I posted above. It's very informative and it just goes to show you that the Chinese have passed us North Americans in a number of categories... From cells to bell, 10 things the Chinese do far better than we do

Actually China doesnt not really find any place to be a world superpower. By mere growth terms you cannot define it as a superpower. To be a superpower the definition of superpower needs to be applied. A super nation where power, culture, politics, business are far reaching in relation to other nations. Like America or the former USSR, where a lot of factors do apply.

Mere catching up on 'GDP growth' does not make it a superpower.

Give it 40 years, my take is China will disintegrate into small factions. It will be an implosion rather than explosion. .With economic growth more freedom will be demanded (as is happening in Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan). And that will be China's downfall. Cultural differences between provinces have so far not spilled over but definitely there are showing telltale signs.

A good analysis, but I believe there will still be central power, and along with the DDP, the military is on its way to being one to be reckoned with, and the people have freedom now as they haven't had it in the past; there are many reasons to think they'll surpass us.

I like thta analogy of our way of thinking being similar to the Romans just before they fell.

Originally posted by Hawkssss
No. I never said china is innocent. What I am saying is that china is no worse and no better when it comes to aggression and human rights violation. Yet, all you hypocrites would like to bring human rights up as if it was a patented chinese right only. So stfu next time when you want to use human rights because that's the most stupid thing to say because what you people did to native americans and africans (I assume you are an hypocritic american)

Your saying what we did as if some of that Era of Europe was still alive, barely some, dont judge generations after who got no power on whole matter. Thats so stupid how you pretend its right to violate human rights TODAY by saying so did the Europeans 60 years ago, that is past and lame excuse for such when theres new agreements to obey human rights. Still im not stupid enough to start say in China more human rights are violated by goverment level people, while in Europe its mostly organized crime that does invidual human rights crimes. By thinking diffrent might be seen crime in China, im not aware does China even try to offer freedom of speech, i believe not. But long as country itself allows its their way. Sort of every who invest money to China are part of this human rights violation cause of abusing low cost laboring, but in future that gives better ground for China.
There havent ever been such large scale economic rising before, from here when company moves 1 job (1 worker job loss + they save factory automated assembly line) with his salary they get 36 laborers in China, try offer healhcare for 36 people instead one or any other insurances.

Ill stop my China talks here and admit in history every country has made sacrifices to get better future for its people and one of the basic idea is to have full work force that reflect everywhere on whole society (crime goes down, people feel more secure etc.) Maybe its fact that people living in developed countrys cant bare that China makes new job standards and increase our work hours also if we wish to compete with em, its sad we go more and more to this envious work hour circle and soon have no free time, while technology is on that level its helping us save those hours but instead we push it futher.

For the full analogy of the romans to apply - one should understand its demise as well, it was an implosion within. Any totalitarian regime, will in the end, collapse due to its rigid norms. So I hardly think they will make it to superpower status.

Here's an incident, one of many, supressed by the Beijing communist authorities. This one occured not too far back - in Oct 2004

english.epochtimes.com...

The event caused Internet users to express discontent at the current political situation, the awakening of social conscience, and alarm at the corruption in Mainland China, as well as concern for the future of the nation. However, the hosts of the forums quickly terminated all comments and reports concerning the Wangzhou event, and the government moved to stifle all mention of the event.

The scale of the conflicts is becoming larger, and they are also becoming more and more violent. A survey of nearly one hundred scholars and experts conducted by Beijing University showed sixty percent of the experts think that China will probably face a crisis in the social, economic, or political field before 2010 that will influence the development of the nation.

And others that occured in Nov 2004

Villages set ablaze as ethnic riots break out in China


Upsurge of social strife rattles China's rulers
Protests, strikes now daily problem for Communist Party

Chinese Protests Grow More Frequent, Violent

My take? China will definitely implode. The way it goes now.

That is a pointless proof, you can find such proof by thousands, but I also can find by tenth of thousands, truth comes from different sides.

China is founded almost 60 years ago with nothing, I mean absolutely nothing, now it is one of the strongest country in the world, a leader of third world countries, and you are telling me it is going to collapse in 40 years, are you kidding me? Open your eyes, make a graph out of your analysis, it doesn't even make a slope.

So far (11/15/04), here's a list of some topics about China,
Can China invade Taiwan........................................................................52 pages
U.S. vs. China..........................................................................................35 pages
China release new fighter J-10................................................................28 pages
China launches new type of sub, American intelligence "suprised".........23 pages
J-10, from China, I'm prd of it..................................................................18 pages
Hey China, why are you so worked up about an Independant Taiwan...16 pages
China tells US Pacific Command chief military contact with
Taiwan must stop....................................................................................14 pages
China toops buildup in Mexico..................................................................8 pages
NEWS: China is Sending Nuclear Technology to Iran and NK...................5 pages
China for World super power in next 40 years.........................................5 pages

Can "feel" something trends inside it or not? It happened, it's happening, China is on the way to it, u like it, u don't like it, no way to stop.

Aahh but the above analyses indicate that the progress is not linear. Hence calculating slope would be pointless. Aysymptotic assumptions will haev to do!!

Originally posted by plutonian
China is founded almost 60 years ago with nothing, I mean absolutely nothing, now it is one of the strongest country in the world, a leader of third world countries, and you are telling me it is going to collapse in 40 years, are you kidding me? Open your eyes, make a graph out of your analysis, it doesn't even make a slope.

About 20+/- years ago, I bet a lot of people would have said and thought the same thing about the USSR. It's amazing the image that can be portrayed despite the reality that lies inside.

Originally posted by cubiehole

Originally posted by plutonian
China is founded almost 60 years ago with nothing, I mean absolutely nothing, now it is one of the strongest country in the world, a leader of third world countries, and you are telling me it is going to collapse in 40 years, are you kidding me? Open your eyes, make a graph out of your analysis, it doesn't even make a slope.

About 20+/- years ago, I bet a lot of people would have said and thought the same thing about the USSR. It's amazing the image that can be portrayed despite the reality that lies inside.

The difference is the USSR and the US were in a Cold War. US and China are trading partners. There is a huge difference.

Originally posted by Daedalus3
Aahh but the above analyses indicate that the progress is not linear. Hence calculating slope would be pointless. Aysymptotic assumptions will haev to do!!

This post to be continued and pages no. to be added, wait....
And, btw, the post related to India have the long queue too. And the topics about India V.S. China ( behind Pakistan) always suck the pts. You know why, for they have a lot of internet users; How come they have a lot of users? for both they two have heavy population. Why last time don't they have such crowded users but now have? Because they are now booming...

Originally posted by aryaputhra

Give it 40 years, my take is China will disintegrate into small factions. It will be an implosion rather than explosion. .With economic growth more freedom will be demanded (as is happening in Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan). And that will be China's downfall. Cultural differences between provinces have so far not spilled over but definitely there are showing telltale signs.

China have a 5,000 years history of union, dont have the second country like this. You know why? Because Chinese like union. Union make you bigger. Big is beautiful. Base on this point, China would not split, even the communist party collapsed. From 1 to 15 happened on USSR would not repeat on China.
The day after tomorrow, it's not an issue about China split to small form frations like HK, SG, TW, it's an issue about SG, TW, maybe NK, united to China to show us a real superpower China.

Originally posted by cubiehole

Originally posted by plutonian
China is founded almost 60 years ago with nothing, I mean absolutely nothing, now it is one of the strongest country in the world, a leader of third world countries, and you are telling me it is going to collapse in 40 years, are you kidding me? Open your eyes, make a graph out of your analysis, it doesn't even make a slope.

About 20+/- years ago, I bet a lot of people would have said and thought the same thing about the USSR. It's amazing the image that can be portrayed despite the reality that lies inside.

USSR is a union, not a country, which strictly perform the original Marxism idealogy, China walked through that path, and abandoned it, create their own identity, don't you know that China has free market system, which is not allowed by the definition of communism?

They technically don't have a pure free market, they have free market zones that are getting expanded fairly soon according to a recent CNBC report. It's interesting the parallels between China and the US. The US merged their Democratic Republic that was founded on Personal Freedoms with a system(Capitolism) that likes to limit personal freedoms while expanding economic ones. China is merging a gov't system that limits personal and economic freedom with a system that wants to expand Economic freedoms yet keep personal freedoms in check. Interesting situation isn't it.

Originally posted by aryaputhra
Actually China doesnt not really find any place to be a world superpower. By mere growth terms you cannot define it as a superpower. To be a superpower the definition of superpower needs to be applied. A super nation where power, culture, politics, business are far reaching in relation to other nations. Like America or the former USSR, where a lot of factors do apply.

Mere catching up on 'GDP growth' does not make it a superpower.

Give it 40 years, my take is China will disintegrate into small factions. It will be an implosion rather than explosion. .With economic growth more freedom will be demanded (as is happening in Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan). And that will be China's downfall. Cultural differences between provinces have so far not spilled over but definitely there are showing telltale signs.

I'm sorry but you are so wrong on this my friend. Being Chinese who came to Canada five years ago, I know factual information on the status of China. GDP is what makes a country a superpower, technically it is a chain of events e.g. Lots of GDP give the government cash, with cash the government needs a place to spend them, government spends money on promoting its economics and then investing in the military and then restarting the cycle. With military buildup and ability to project power AND a strong economics to back it up A COUNTRY IS DEFINITELY a SUPERPOWER.

Cultural differences in CHina? Even though we have 56 different cultures in China, we have always united as a whole for dozens of centuries. 98% of China is of the Han culture and the rest have been assimilated into Han culture. China will not split, although Taiwan might but that is a completely different story.

I have no Idea why you stated China will split into small factions so I presume you have not done indepth research of China and you simply ASSUME. ASSUME, assume makes an AS$ out of U and ME, understand??

Come on guys, DENY IGNORANCE, we can help you. Remember DO NOT ASSUME.
[edit on 15-11-2004 by COWlan]

[edit on 15-11-2004 by COWlan]

Originally posted by sardion2000
They technically don't have a pure free market, they have free market zones that are getting expanded fairly soon according to a recent CNBC report. It's interesting the parallels between China and the US. The US merged their Democratic Republic that was founded on Personal Freedoms with a system(Capitolism) that likes to limit personal freedoms while expanding economic ones. China is merging a gov't system that limits personal and economic freedom with a system that wants to expand Economic freedoms yet keep personal freedoms in check. Interesting situation isn't it.

You are partially right and partially wrong, remember that China is a part of communist countries before, they would not allow capitalism take control off their country and threat the government, that is exactly what happened to Japan, check the real estate infos. Remember many small but nice companies that emerged by greedy capitalist corps and totally lost their identity? Their owner has been replaced by board of money directors with stocks, and therefore the company lost their challenging spirit and simply generate money to emerge more, Electronic Arts is becoming one of the greedy ones. It is not personal freedom that is important, it is making sure the government is still in control, not the corp interest.

Freedom is really an illusion, keep the idea of freedom as your first priority is really a bad approach to intelligent discussion, as result from "free world" propaganda. No offence.

[edit on 15-11-2004 by plutonian]

COWlan,

I'm sorry but you are so wrong on this my friend. Being Chinese who came to Canada five years ago, I know factual information on the status of China. GDP is what makes a country a superpower, technically it is a chain of events e.g. Lots of GDP give the government cash, with cash the government needs a place to spend them, government spends money on promoting its economics and then investing in the military and then restarting the cycle. With military buildup and ability to project power AND a strong economics to back it up A COUNTRY IS DEFINITELY a SUPERPOWER.

Of course, one does accept the GDP growth is there. However I stick to that a Superpower status is only achieved when the nation itself can be described as superpower - i.e. A super nation where power, culture, politics, business are far reaching in relation to other nations. China's military might is to say the least, doubtful. And then you can look at GDP growth - Look at Japan, its economy grew so rapidly since the 50s, with your logic, during its GDP growth, analysts should have predicted it to become a superpower. But Superpower is it? No. Why? Because it cannot claim any logistical, cultural expansion to the world. The USSR to some extent (by force) managed to do it, i.e. expand its interests. hence it could be claimed a superpower. But this was purely through military might, and such a global outreach - to forcefully determine what other nations should or should not do; led to its very own downfall. It had to and was headed for an implosion. Gorbachev knew that. It was either that or an isolationist policy. Thus it imploded into small CSIR states and what is left of Russia.

I see China somewhat differently. China will definitely grow since it has adopted a capitalist system. But the communist regime has to change/adapt for it to succeed. I mean, you can only grow (and that too temporarily) by delivering plastic toys, buckets clocks and other low tech items to the world. When the world notices and becomes competitive, China has to look for it's hi-tech know-how. When such foreign companies set up shop in China, more change will be demanded (both by the foreign investors and by the local companies) And if the regime changes/adapts, surely, more will be demanded, i.e. for example more transparency which the Beijing government is wary of. There is also a bubble within China's growth and its banking system is quite suspect but that's a different topic. So the economy will grow, but not to superpower status. It's military will not and cannot be as powerful as say the US is or the USSR was. It has no well known allies. It has no strategic regional posts to defend the world (not just the US) apart from North Korea. There certainly will not be cultural expansions. You certainly will not find American, European youths going Chinese (as is the present case with brand Americana). China does not even have a great global company to boast for global recognition, ala, Coca cola, McDonalds or Starbucks (even the Japanese have their Toyotas, Mitsubishis etc). You can thus make an analysis (which is the same as assuming) where China will be, from what it is going on right now.

So what are the signs right now? It's economy is certainly growing. People are becoming independent. They are decidedly western in their outlook, i.e. seeking western fashion, western food, music, movies, technology etc. to show its progress. There lacks a growth within. China also does show signs of ethnic unrests within. Add to that - it has a totalitarian regime supressing the news as it occurs but not doing anything to avoid it. But no matter however much the PRC media authorities try to hush it up, the fact that the unrest is there does not go away. You may seem to fool the world but not your own people. And the unrest seems to be growing too. Now I am not trying to be a doomsdayer by predicting China's fall thereof, however if current events are anything to go by, then analytically speaking, of course...

Cultural differences in CHina? Even though we have 56 different cultures in China, we have always united as a whole for dozens of centuries. 98% of China is of the Han culture and the rest have been assimilated into Han culture. China will not split, although Taiwan might but that is a completely different story.

It is all well and good to show a united front to the world at large, but as my previous post shows there is ethnic growing unrest and intolerance towards the government authorities.

You also talk of assimilation of other races by the Han chinese. This assimilation of other races (ala Tibetan, Uyghur) has to be done by force, or there must be a congruity within the cultures. To a certain extent, this depends on the people that you rule. Tibetans for example have resigned to their fate whereas it is difficult to say the Uighurs have the same outlook. Alas, this is the truth with every culture in the world.

One also has to note the disparities of Han chinese themselves within various provinces, i.e. a Fujian/Hokkien person to say a Hakka of northern china, Chiu Chow/Chaozhou, or Guangdong will not identify themselves as the same. So it's all well and good to PROJECT a sense of unity to the outside world - but it is greatly suspect whether such a co-existence will actually exist.

I have no Idea why you stated China will split into small factions so I presume you have not done indepth research of China and you simply ASSUME. ASSUME, assume makes an AS$ out of U and ME, understand??

Come on guys, DENY IGNORANCE, we can help you. Remember DO NOT ASSUME.

Well, that is my point of view. And I have given my analysis thereof. Of course this is a thread that is based on "Assumption"; that of- Will china become a superpower. To deny any other assumptions except China WILL be a superpower is like forcing one to think ONLY along the lines of the PRC. This is the same coercion that the PRC thrives for and the rest of the free world objects to.

I agree with the 'deny ignorance' part.


[edit on 15-11-2004 by aryaputhra]