China for World super power in next 40 years, page 4

COWlan,

I'm sorry but you are so wrong on this my friend. Being Chinese who came to Canada five years ago, I know factual information on the status of China. GDP is what makes a country a superpower, technically it is a chain of events e.g. Lots of GDP give the government cash, with cash the government needs a place to spend them, government spends money on promoting its economics and then investing in the military and then restarting the cycle. With military buildup and ability to project power AND a strong economics to back it up A COUNTRY IS DEFINITELY a SUPERPOWER.

Of course, one does accept the GDP growth is there. However I stick to that a Superpower status is only achieved when the nation itself can be described as superpower - i.e. A super nation where power, culture, politics, business are far reaching in relation to other nations. China's military might is to say the least, doubtful. And then you can look at GDP growth - Look at Japan, its economy grew so rapidly since the 50s, with your logic, during its GDP growth, analysts should have predicted it to become a superpower. But Superpower is it? No. Why? Because it cannot claim any logistical, cultural expansion to the world. The USSR to some extent (by force) managed to do it, i.e. expand its interests. hence it could be claimed a superpower. But this was purely through military might, and such a global outreach - to forcefully determine what other nations should or should not do; led to its very own downfall. It had to and was headed for an implosion. Gorbachev knew that. It was either that or an isolationist policy. Thus it imploded into small CSIR states and what is left of Russia.

I see China somewhat differently. China will definitely grow since it has adopted a capitalist system. But the communist regime has to change/adapt for it to succeed. I mean, you can only grow (and that too temporarily) by delivering plastic toys, buckets clocks and other low tech items to the world. When the world notices and becomes competitive, China has to look for it's hi-tech know-how. When such foreign companies set up shop in China, more change will be demanded (both by the foreign investors and by the local companies) And if the regime changes/adapts, surely, more will be demanded, i.e. for example more transparency which the Beijing government is wary of. There is also a bubble within China's growth and its banking system is quite suspect but that's a different topic. So the economy will grow, but not to superpower status. It's military will not and cannot be as powerful as say the US is or the USSR was. It has no well known allies. It has no strategic regional posts to defend the world (not just the US) apart from North Korea. There certainly will not be cultural expansions. You certainly will not find American, European youths going Chinese (as is the present case with brand Americana). China does not even have a great global company to boast for global recognition, ala, Coca cola, McDonalds or Starbucks (even the Japanese have their Toyotas, Mitsubishis etc). You can thus make an analysis (which is the same as assuming) where China will be, from what it is going on right now.

So what are the signs right now? It's economy is certainly growing. People are becoming independent. They are decidedly western in their outlook, i.e. seeking western fashion, western food, music, movies, technology etc. to show its progress. There lacks a growth within. China also does show signs of ethnic unrests within. Add to that - it has a totalitarian regime supressing the news as it occurs but not doing anything to avoid it. But no matter however much the PRC media authorities try to hush it up, the fact that the unrest is there does not go away. You may seem to fool the world but not your own people. And the unrest seems to be growing too. Now I am not trying to be a doomsdayer by predicting China's fall thereof, however if current events are anything to go by, then analytically speaking, of course...

Cultural differences in CHina? Even though we have 56 different cultures in China, we have always united as a whole for dozens of centuries. 98% of China is of the Han culture and the rest have been assimilated into Han culture. China will not split, although Taiwan might but that is a completely different story.

It is all well and good to show a united front to the world at large, but as my previous post shows there is ethnic growing unrest and intolerance towards the government authorities.

You also talk of assimilation of other races by the Han chinese. This assimilation of other races (ala Tibetan, Uyghur) has to be done by force, or there must be a congruity within the cultures. To a certain extent, this depends on the people that you rule. Tibetans for example have resigned to their fate whereas it is difficult to say the Uighurs have the same outlook. Alas, this is the truth with every culture in the world.

One also has to note the disparities of Han chinese themselves within various provinces, i.e. a Fujian/Hokkien person to say a Hakka of northern china, Chiu Chow/Chaozhou, or Guangd ong will not identify themselves as the same. So it's all well and good to PROJECT a sense of unity to the outside world - but it is greatly suspect whether such a co-existence will actually exist.

I have no Idea why you stated China will split into small factions so I presume you have not done indepth research of China and you simply ASSUME. ASSUME, assume makes an AS$ out of U and ME, understand??

Come on guys, DENY IGNORANCE, we can help you. Remember DO NOT ASSUME.

Well, that is my point of view. And I have given my analysis thereof. Of course this is a thread that is based on "Assumption"; that of- Will china become a superpower. To deny any other assumptions except China WILL be a superpower is like forcing one to think ONLY along the lines of the PRC. This is the same coercion that the PRC thrives for and the rest of the free world objects to.

I agree with the 'deny ignorance' part.

[edit on 15-11-2004 by aryaputhra]