RT NEWS Breaking: N. Korean missile launchpad moved into firing attitude - reports

reply to post by babygurl2013


You overestimate North Korea. You expect too much of it. At the same time, you greatly underestimate the United States - you do realise that this is the United States that we're talking about? Even China would not be able to win a non-nuclear war against the United States.

So I cannot see why you're so fearful haha! You have nothing to fear from North Korea which probably fails more than half of its missiles tests

Originally posted by HomoSapiensSapiens
reply to post by babygurl2013

 

You overestimate North Korea. You expect too much of it. At the same time, you greatly underestimate the United States - you do realise that this is the United States that we're talking about? Even China would not be able to win a non-nuclear war against the United States.

So I cannot see why you're so fearful haha! You have nothing to fear from North Korea which probably fails more than half of its missiles tests

Right, but its the States who has trouble controlling the Taliban.

Well, when are they going to fire off one of those missiles, I'm losing my patients. If they are going to do it then do it or pack the missiles up and stick them back in the garage. Everytime I hear something like this, I wonder what our government is trying to hide from us. They shift our focus to events to sidetrack our sight off of something else happening all the time.

I think Kimmy is playing with his new toys. Just in CNN, NK has lowered they're missles...

www.cnn.com...

He must be really really really boared...

Maybe the NK president is only just going through pubety and is flexing. Like hes the king of the jungle.

The attitude of NK towards us has been hostile since the Korean War but everything that we've done since then has only maintained or exacerbated that hostility.

Which is to tell the Leninist crazies in DPRK, "No you can't invade and oppress South Korea like you did to North Korea.".

Other than that, what has the USA done specifically?

reply to post by HomoSapiensSapiens

Even China would not be able to win a non-nuclear war against the United States.

At present, they wouldn't win a nuclear one either...

Of course, that's probably why they are simply buying us....

Originally posted by SeekerofTruth101
If someone was pointing a gun at my house, I will sure as hell find out WHY. Humans do not act without reasons unless they are insane. If it had been a misunderstanding, my neighbour and I will have to resolve them, find common ground and learn to live in peace, then to be pointing guns at each other for life.

Your one second of me suspending logic over NK is up.

It's not logic that is being suspended. It's a specific bias as we are the targets of NK's wrath to simply gain a view from how they may perceive things. There's great benefit to being able to do that to understand how the enemy thinks and what is motivating them.

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle” Sun Tzu, The Art of War

There are plenty of things that NK has done wrong and, yes, your response would be what I would attempt as well. Part of the issue is that NK is very militarized so that, in itself, could seem to be a provocation when compared to SK or even the US where our cultures are infinitely more relaxed. Then there is other actions that NK has done historically that is very hostile and unhelpful to the "disagreement" Like this. They're definitely not saints so that wasn't what I was implying in the slightest. However, the subject matter of those military exercises are what has led us to this point, which was the same thing that provoked NK to bomb that island. Our annual military exercises, Foal Eagle, is one of the largest military exercises on the planet.

NK has held military exercises in the past but not necessarily joint military exercises of the same scale. This one was announced as the first joint military exercise between NK and Russia in 2011 but no mention of it, thereafter, actually taking place. Russia held a military exercise in the case of refugees in 2003. In terms of China, any military "exercise" has been more of a movement of troops to the NK-China border. Never heard of either Russia or China having a massive joint military exercise like Key Resolve (formerly called Foal Eagle), which occurs in and offshore of SK and around the NK border. So, comparing what China and Russia have done with the Northern borders of NK is not quite the same as Key Resolve comes off as being very aggressive and very close by. Heck, we were simulating bombing runs over NK in this last one. No matter what NK has said or done, we still hold these military exercises every year, knowing it's going to make them mad and going through with them anyways. That's not diplomacy. We don't have diplomatic relations with North Korea. This is a pretty good article citing the fallacies and failures on both sides though it's notably missing the attack on the US gunboat carrying a trade treaty that was purportedly against the orders of Korean officials.

www.theatlantic.com...

That's not trying to work with one's hostile neighbor at all and we've been doing this for years and years. From our standpoint, we see it as showing our willingness to defend SK from another invasion. From NK's point of view, it would be seen as military aggression and actually provokes an aggressive response from NK. And btw, we didn't win the war in NK. It was technically a stalemate and that's why an armistice agreement was signed--not a peace treaty. Neither side technically won. It ended in a draw.

Just for the record, I'm not "pro" NK nor am I "anti-American". I'm just an American who grew up during the Cold War and don't want to have my children living in some fear of a nuclear bomb dropping on their heads like I did as a kid.

I have no doubt that they will test a few missiles, and possibly even set off another underground nuclear detonation or two. However, I suspect that they will then return to the negotiating table as they always have. I wouldn't worry too much unless they begin obvious preparations for artillery strikes against Seoul, begin massing formations, etc. So far none of that has happened, and history doesn't suggest it will in my opinion.

That said, there is the possibility of catastrophic miscalculation in any scenario like this. Possibilities for miscalculation include, just as examples:

• They test fire a missile with the intention of then returning to negotiations afterwards having saved face by presenting a strong front (in the eyes of their people at least,) but the missile is intercepted successfully. What do they do to save face now? Do they escalate tensions further? Do they do something more drastic? Or simply repeat the missile test on the gamble that it can't be intercepted again?
  
• They test fire a missile, but it actually hits Japan, South Korea, or Guam, and causes damage or - in a truly scary scenario - deaths. Whether intentional or not, this could spark a major international incident and provoke a dangerously escalating response.
  
• They calculate that they can launch a limited strike with minimal or no casualties that they can then back down from after saving face and appearing strong, believing that South Korea and U.S. will refrain from retaliation in order to stave off a new war. This would be one of the most dangerous gambles on their part in my opinion, and could provoke real retaliation.
  
• A dangerous combination of paranoia, nationalism, and perceived weakness on the part of their adversary takes on a life of its own and they convince themselves that the long foretold attack on their country (which appears to be something many in the country truly believe is a question of when, not if,) is actually imminent, and they decide to strike first. I consider this the least likely possibility, but the most dangerous, as they would enter self-preservation mode and all their decisions would be predicated upon that. (So far, there's no compelling evidence that this is the case in my opinion.)
  

The possibility for such miscalculations is precisely why, even if all they plan to do is bluster and test missiles that land in the sea, the situation is regarded as so dangerous. Human beings can easily turn what seems improbable or unthinkable into a nightmarish reality in short order under the right circumstances.

Hopefully my initial opinion proves to be the reality though, and things are ratcheted down after any possible tests.

Peace.

reply to post by talisman


The United States is not alone in its failures in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan is aptly called "The Graveyard of Empires". Maybe the only way to win Afghanistan is to nuke it?

I had a thought and I want to know if you think it's possible.

NK has many underground installations, this is why we don't really know what they have. Is it possible to launch something from one of these underground complexes?

To be clear, could they have a set up where all they do is open up a roof or something to launch?

I ask you because it's bugging me how with the deck stacked against them, lil Kim seems confident, my gut tells me he has an ace up his sleeve somehow.

Originally posted by wingfixr
I think Kimmy is playing with his new toys. Just in CNN, NK has lowered they're missles...

www.cnn.com...

He must be really really really boared...

Maybe he just got performance anxiety...

reply to post by wingfixr


Or they're messing with us?

Originally posted by HomoSapiensSapiens
reply to post by talisman

 

Afghanistan is aptly called "The Graveyard of Empires". Maybe the only way to win Afghanistan is to nuke it?

edit on 4/11/2013 by HomoSapiensSapiens because: (no reason given)

I don't like making jokes about nuclear war or bombing countries, but given Afghan's history, you might be right about that.

reply to post by Gazrok


In a nuclear war between China and the US, nobody would win. Sure, China has less nukes than the US, but both have enough to destroy the planet.

reply to post by Invariance


NK isn't some super-advanced nation of super-advanced reptilians. Whatever they do, they'll sorely lose - they'll be destroyed.

reply to post by HomoSapiensSapiens


O.o.. ok, reptilians huh? I thought I asked a valid question.

I understand that they have a snowball's chance in Hades of winning, I'm not an idiot.

What gets me is what little information there is on what is in the NK arsenal, we haven't seen much, yet their leader is confident.

Now perhaps someone can entertain me and answer my question without being so condescending, Thanks

reply to post by HomoSapiensSapiens

In a nuclear war between China and the US, nobody would win. Sure, China has less nukes than the US, but both have enough to destroy the planet.

Not really. China has an estimated 200 with the range to hit the US. We have 2000 with the range to hit back. Of those 200, a lot would likely be intercepted with missile defenses. So yeah, we'd still get hit with those that got through, but not complete devastation. China, on the other hand, has their assets in more concentrated places...and could easily expect to be completely destroyed.

Not saying it would be GOOD for either...but unlike a nuclear war with Russia, one with China is "winnable"...but at a terrible cost. With Russia, too many would get through, enough to still make it seem like total destruction.

reply to post by Invariance


Sure, WE don't know much about their weapons or what they could be hiding, but I'm sure US intelligence knows a hell of a lot more - and WE would never know.

But can you seriously expect a small little country to outsmart the World's number one superpower?

reply to post by Invariance


I agree with you. Who knows what they could be hiding. Unless they really are hiding nothing at all and Kim Jong Un is trying to lure someone else to make a stand against them. See how far the international community will let NK push the limits before stepping in