Possible Developments for next The 'Big One' SoCal on San Andreas Fault Line!

We have many information that next 'Big One' at San Andreas fault coming in next years or even soon ..

This information coming from scientist and geo-seismic experts also from some ..

You all know how is difficult to predict 'Big One' for this area because fault line did not rupture more of 100 years for San Francisco area, 155 for Los Angeles to Parkfield area and 330 years for Mexicali to L.A area ..

This section of the fault from L.A. to San San Francisco has an earthquake-recurrence interval of roughly 140–160 years ..

At the time the population of Los Angeles was about 4,000, today Southern California is home to 23 million people and the fastest growing areas are near the San Andreas and other major faults also ..

If you look through historical available information this suggests that the big rapture sequence from south to north of San Andreas fault line because of movement Pacific Plate and the North American Plate in right-lateral strike-slip (horizontal motion) also time from last big EQ's on San Andreas fault line ..

So 'Big One' probably will be at area of around Mexicali to L.A. but not necessarily, also think is important to put maximum information about this "events" ..

Like I say is very hard to predict next exact time for 'Big One' here but think is possible developments for this events will be in many sings before EQ and then will not be a lost time, I spend years to understood what can helpful or useful..

I will put one of most important things how i see possible situation development and about foreshocks that can lead to 'Big One' ..

Think this can help a lot so people in this areas to have time to prepare mentally and physically in hours advance before 'Big One', think this time that period probably will be from 1 to 48 hrs or several days ..

So think very probably we will not have here 'Big One' suddenly, foreshocks will happen before and lead to big rupture and think most important EQ is area of central California around Parkfield area, EQ's in this area think over M 5.5+ and especially M 6.0+ can lead to 'Big One' in some 1-24 hrsd, EQ of M 6.0+ on San Andreas Fault Line! also can lead to 'Big One' in hrs advance ..

We had a similar situations but think now will happen like is described and will be nice if you put your opinion or similar, I will post more about this dangerous possible foreshocks and EQ's which can lead to next 'Big One' ..

I put some info only about time that come, 'Big One' is unfortunately inevitable and will come only is matter of time to release from long time this locked area ..

California, slip rates for faults range from 0 to about 38 mm/yr, though anything over 10 mm/yr is generally considered fast (a slip rate around 1 to 2 mm/yr might be considered average for a major, active fault).

The rate of slippage averages approximately 33 to 37 millimetres (1.3 to 1.5 in) annually across California

www.data.scec.org... ; en.wikipedia.org...

Geologists say an earthquake capable of causing widespread destruction is 99 percent certain of hitting California within the next 30 years.

Studies have said that a 7.8 magnitude quake could kill 1,800 people, injure 50,000 more and damage 300,000 buildings.

www.google.com...







Thank you R-M

I have this laying around on one of my websites for Earthquake data and perspective. I thought it might help for your thread. It's the USGS Shakemap simulation for what damage and felt impact was for the 1857 L.A. area quake.

It's interesting to look at because I grew up South of L.A.. Most of my family is still around the L.A. Basin and San Fernando Valley. A repeat of that? Well... All the Earthquake retrofitting they could imagine wouldn't make much different I think... Total loss for a good % of L.A. would be a given, I think.



I came back to add this for perspective and comparison. This is the Northridge Quake map from that event.



The first map doesn't have much meaning without the second one to give some reference for real world meaning.

Thank you Wrabbit2000 ..

Nice to have you here ..

My writing is difficult and I'm sorry about that ..

It's all about SoCal and what EQ will be foreshock, I think EQ on fault line around Parkfield area will lead to South California "Big One"!!

It's just a matter of time before the big one hits socal.

Now,if only I could get someone to access the restricted portion of this prediction site,www.mitp.ru...

I would love to see what they have to say.

Peace,
K

reply to post by MariaLida

If I lived in the area (and I may, just down the block from Depp's house in fact)(or in fiction), then what I'd want to do is get inside one of the earthquake workers' homes or apartments and see what precautions they've taken. See how their shelves are laid out, if any, what wall brackets they've put up, how they've organized a safe room (probably their bedrooms are lined with mattresses and things on the furniture like on bumper cars), what kind of supplies they have and where they keep them. Steel reinforced beams anyone? If someone is going to stay in such a heavily prone earthquake zone they should be as protected as possible.

I had a friend a few years ago that worked for the USGS and did stress analysis on various fault lines around Southern California. Six years ago he sold his house at a loss and moved his family to Texas. I also moved.

Take it for what you will

reply to post by kdog1982


I can't pull up your link. Is it the Russian prediction site? I know we have talked about if before......

Did I read that right? They are saying a major earthquake is predicted for Cali in the next 30 days?

reply to post by sulaw


nvm I read it wrong I was in shock for a min.

reply to post by Doodle19815


Yes,it is,doodle.
I fixed the link,sorry.

Ugh... just buying my airplane tickets right now for my trip back home- to Yorba Linda. Then a road trip up to Napa and Sacramento.... basically just staying right on top of these faults for a couple of weeks.

I didn't need to be reminded of this danger.

Funny, when you live there, you just sort of get used to that sword hanging over your head. But since I've moved away, it scares me more now.

Originally posted by kdog1982
It's just a matter of time before the big one hits socal.

Now,if only I could get someone to access the restricted portion of this prediction site,www.mitp.ru...

I would love to see what they have to say.

Peace,
K

edit on 7-3-2013 by kdog1982 because: (no reason given)

Thank you

Can you tell us more about prediction for this area ?

Originally posted by sulaw
Did I read that right? They are saying a major earthquake is predicted for Cali in the next 30 days?

I can't find or see anything ..

Configuration of fault line like this one is overcomplicated, pressure here is like loaded gun and think only some stronger EQ around M 6.0 foreshock EQ's on this fault line can lead to M 7.2+ or M 8.0, also this EQ is "very" "Big One" for California area ..

Sometimes here there is not enough power or strong EQ that lead to "Big One", configuration of fault line is very complicated compressed looked uneven big long etc, and with this danger is greater for very strong EQ with no strong release when plate get stuck in strike slip ..

Probably this is onwe of thwe best warning in advance for this area, for ocean strong EQ you have alerts ..

Think this area can be warned with foreshock EQ's on fault line and think especially around Parkfield area future EQ's around M 5.7-6.7 ..

Also think in 24-48 hrs it will be very probably more or few EQ's on entire line fault from Golf of California-Mexicali-Eureka around M 5.2+ or M 6.0+ before "Big One" and Parkfield EQ around M 6.0 think is the most important sign ..

99% probability within the next 30 years ??!

Is it possible for geologists to say something like that with such certainty ?

This swarm of low EQ's >2 at the Geysers CA area is also interesting to watch ..

earthquake.usgs.gov...

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Area around San Bernardino - Los Angeles to Parkfield area is interesting to watch too, this two location when got M 5.5 + M 6.0 + can also trigger very strong EQ in SoCal or Central Ca ..

"So think very probably we will not have here 'Big One' suddenly, foreshocks will happen before and lead to big rupture and think most important EQ is area of central California around Parkfield area, EQ's in this area think over M 5.5+ and especially M 6.0+ can lead to 'Big One' in some 1-24 hrsd, EQ of M 6.0+ on San Andreas Fault Line! also can lead to 'Big One' in hrs advance .."

reply to post by MariaLida


I think what you are trying to convey is this...

Foreshocks will happen in SoCal and be aware of such foreshocks as they may reach 6.7 but it will possibly lead to the BIG ONE and you believe this could possibly happen in the next 48 hours to a few days?

If this is not what you are trying to say, please advise.

Thanks!

Originally posted by MamaJ
reply to post by MariaLida

 

I think what you are trying to convey is this...

Foreshocks will happen in SoCal and be aware of such foreshocks as they may reach 6.7 but it will possibly lead to the BIG ONE and you believe this could possibly happen in the next 48 hours to a few days?

If this is not what you are trying to say, please advise.

Thanks!

Hio0 mo0m, you got me wrong also can't find where I post M 6.7 ..

I thought for future events not in this or last 48 hrs, after foreshock around M 6.3 ..


Main EQ or "Big One" my guess will be around M 7.4 but that's hard one to predict for this location for long time pressure was not released here especially in one biger EQ ..

If main EQ don't come after this EQ (probably around M 6.3), very much % that will come after next of similar magnitude and around posted location ..

R-M

Also we entering stronger seizmic activity in next days ..

Originally posted by MariaLida

Originally posted by MariaLida
Think we will have strong seizmic activity in next 4-5 days ..

Also we will have a new moon tomorrow, 2013 Mar 11 19:54 ..

Some interesting thread ..

www.abovetopsecret.com...

2013-03-10 22:51:54.0 36min ago 6.65 S 148.38 E 60 6.7 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

earthquake.usgs.gov... ; www.emsc-csem.org...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by MariaLida


Oh, ok, sorry for the misunderstanding. I saw this thread linked from the other and I assumed wrong.

This thread is just about the future in general, however you expect activity pick up as it is doing?

I have no idea now where I got 6.7?? I must have read it somewhere else or I am simply losing my mind.