Israel: Potential War with Iran to Last 1 Month

This has got to be a joke.

30 days of war on multiple fronts and only 500 Israeli's dead, give or take...

Either they don't know who they are messing with (Iran), or they plan on nuking that nation into the ground....

I think they will be suprised at what Iran will do to them.

I think they will be suprised at how much Israel will get totally owned by all the surrounding nations. The arab nations wont be played for a fool again. They will be watching for Israeli airplanes to try and hit their run-ways like last time, etc.

I'm quite certain shoit will hit the fan, and that's just the arab nations not considering Russia, or China...

Originally posted by SLAYER69
I think ATS has a War cheering section. I really do. Blame whomever is available and when there's nobody that really fits the bill they blame the....

"GASP"

TPTB!


Meanwhile, every time one of these types of stories die a horrible death of obscurity due to lack of supportive facts or when they never come to pass sooner or later there will be another one just around the corner and the cheering starts all over again.....

Come on Slayer you are the most pro war dude I have seen on these boards! We all know what's coming, and it is a matter of when not if.

Many here are legitimately scared because the prospect of war on our shores is a real possibility. This makes this kind of post a very hot topic!

Just look at Russia's posturing if you have any doubt! For months now Russian nuclear subs have been patrolling the Gulf of Mexico, and we had no idea. Russia is setting up a missile shield in Cuba etc etc etc..

Need links?
Russian attack submarine slipped past US Navy and patrolled Gulf of Mexico for weeks undetected
www.dailymail.co.uk... wsxml

Russia Arms Cuba Amid Rising Tension With U.S.
articles.businessinsider.com...

When the US becomes a threat to other super powers we will see action on their part, and war within our borders will be assured! Defenseless Iraq and Afghanistan are no test of military might!

Syria war as spread into Lebanon as well.This is dangerous stuff.

Originally posted by DaRAGE

This has got to be a joke.

30 days of war on multiple fronts and only 500 Israeli's dead, give or take...

Either they don't know who they are messing with (Iran), or they plan on nuking that nation into the ground....

I think they will be suprised at what Iran will do to them.

I think they will be suprised at how much Israel will get totally owned by all the surrounding nations. The arab nations wont be played for a fool again. They will be watching for Israeli airplanes to try and hit their run-ways like last time, etc.

I'm quite certain shoit will hit the fan, and that's just the arab nations not considering Russia, or China...

It could go either way.Iran might not be that strong as people claim they are.Especially if the U.S.gets envovled in a war with Iran.

reply to post by rigel4


I agree, with the Obama becoming a nonfactor and unsupportive of Israel, specops turning against Obama for leaking classified info. Israel will go it alone with the knowledge the US by the voice of the people will force Obama to support whatever is about to happen. Let's just get it over with, no need for extremeists to have advance weapons.

Can anybody explain to me what nation makes all of these preparations, plans, drills, threats and outright honesty regarding their actions, and then doesn't go through with ii?

reply to post by tothetenthpower


What nations make those plans but don't go through with it?

All Nations.

reply to post by Jobeycool

Originally posted by Jobeycool
It could go either way.Iran might not be that strong as people claim they are.Especially if the U.S.gets envovled in a war with Iran.

Do you know how many loyalists there are in Iran who are FANATICAL about the destruction of Israel and the US...

Armed forces of Iran

These forces total about 545,000 active personnel (not including the Police Force and the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution).[5] All branches of armed forces fall under the command of General Headquarters of Armed Forces (ستاد کل نیروهای مسلح). The Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics is responsible for planning logistics and funding of the armed forces and is not involved with in-the-field military operational command. The Iranian Military consists of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, Islamic Republic of Iran Navy,[6] Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force, and the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Defense Force. The regular armed forces have an estimated 545,000 personnel: the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, 465,000 personnel; the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, 28,000 personnel, and the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force, 52,000 airmen.[5] Islamic Republic of Iran Air Defense Force is a branch split off from the IRIAF.[7] The Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, or Revolutionary Guards, has an estimated 120,000 personnel in five branches: Its own Navy,[6] Aerospace Force, and Ground Forces; and the Quds Force (Special Forces).[5] The Basij is a paramilitary volunteer force controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. Its membership is a matter of controversy. Iranian sources claim a membership of 12.6 million, including women, of which perhaps 3 million are combat capable. There are a claimed 2,500 battalions of which some are full-time personnel.[8] Globalsecurity.org quotes a 2005 study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimating 90,000 active-duty full-time uniformed members, 300,000 reservists, and a total of 11 million men that can be mobilized if need be.[9] Iran's military was called the Middle East's most powerful by General John Abizaid chief of United States Central Command (U.S. forces' commander in the region). However General Abizaid said he did not include the Israel Defense Forces as they did not fall into his area of operations.[10]

AND that's not including the current, 200, 000 missiles aimed at Israel already.
Now the below text was published on the 2/2/2012 and mentions Syria and Lebanon being the two locations which contained the most missiles; Maybe that's why the uprising is occurring in Syria and spreading to Lebanon, to basically make them fear their own situation more than Israel going to war with Iran...

Israeli National News

IDF Intelligence head Aviv Kochavi gave a chilling presentation Thursday morning at the Herzliya Conference on Israeli policy, telling listeners that Israel's enemies had 200,000 rockets and missiles pointed at the country, and could reach all parts of Israel – even the ostensibly safe “center” of Tel Aviv and its suburbs. Most of the missiles have a range of about 40 kilometers – the range of Qassam and most Katyusha rockets – but thousands of missiles have ranges of hundreds of kilometers, making every location in Israel within their reach. Not only that – but the missiles are more lethal now than ever before. “The warheads on these missiles contain hundreds of kilograms of explosives, not dozens, as in the past. And their firing precision and ability to hit specific targets is also greater,” Kochavi said. The rockets are largely located in Lebanon and Syria, with a smaller amount in Gaza – and in Iran, as well, which has thousands of missiles that could reach Israel. “Every tenth house in Lebanon is now a weapons depot,” Kochavi said.

Whether the US is involved or not in an Iran attack makes no difference. There WILL be more casualties in Israel than the estimated 500...

While things certainly could get out of hand and quickly, I don't think "1 month and 500 civillian casualties" is all that unrealistic.

Israeli Civil Defense is pretty good, with shelters/bunkers for a large percentage of the population, along with gas masks, with local civil defense drills that are frequent, and have picked up in number and realism lately. Settlers/civillians in high risk, border, and contested area's are also well armed with rifles and submachine guns. Most civillians will be in shelters once this rolls out.

The attack will go something like this:

1) Sub launched Cruise and possibly conventional ballistic missiles will strike.
2) Shortly after about a 60 to 100 (long range F-15I and F-16I) IDF aircraft raid will hit

The missiles and aircraft will hit a variety of air defense, command and control, and ballistic missile sites.
Follow up strikes over the next several days/nights will hit the actual Nuclear sites.

3) At the same time the rest of the IDF Air Force will hit areas in Lebanon, and possibly Syria to disable shorter range rockets, known terrorist cells, possibly Syrian Air Force. They may wait to see if there is actual retaliation,but my guess is they go after knows sites right away.
4) Isreali Special Forces, and possibly main force armored and mech forces will secure areas in Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza to hit morter, rocket, and artillery sites to prevent as much retaliation as possible.
These will also provide security zones outside of their territory should Syria, Lebenon, and Iranian forces there make a move. Fight them on their turf. Armored units in the Sianni Area also are on high alert incase Egypt tries to intervine. I don't think they will, but THAT would definatley complicate matters.

5) Arrow, Iron Dome, and Patriot defend against incoming missiles as much as possible.

THE WORLD HOLDS ITS BREATH TO SEE WHAT NATO, THE US, RUSSIA, and CHINA do, and see how Iran has whethered the attack.

Likely the US gets involved at some level, because the Iranians will probably try to retaliate on the US Navy. Syria will also slip into more chaos, so expect NATO to intervine. UN meets to determine what, if anything, should be done next. China and Russian huff an puff, but PROBABLY don't actually do anything. BUT that is probably the ultimate unknown here. Iranian and Al-Quedia terrorist strikes in the US or Europe are also an unknown. That could have various and severe consequences in the US.

6) Assuming no WMD are used and the above stay out of it., most offensive operations, missile strikes, and air raids are done in 3-5 days. With maybe 2-3 weeks of "terrorist" and "insurgent" reprisals and fighting with the IDF.

The BIG unknowns not withstanding, this is how I see this playing out. I may post back with how some of the "unknowns" might roll later if I get time.

reply to post by tothetenthpower


Imagine how ugly it will get if Iran stands down upon being attacked, and publicly asks for intervention to stop the bloodshed raining down on them. I would not put it past them - in reality, they're more savvy than they are crazy. The only wrench is, there are uncontrollable factions who will not follow Iran's leadership's orders.

reply to post by DaRAGE


That's true....but most of those forces are in Iran. Are they going to force march across Iraq and Jordan????

That's why this thing will be mostly air/naval/missile, with some ground fighting in Lebannon (like 06).

Can anybody explain to me what nation makes all of these preparations, plans, drills, threats and outright honesty regarding their actions, and then doesn't go through with ii?

Here's my explanation; the Likud party in Israel and the Islamist Theocrats in Iran need the threat of each other to justify their miserable existence!

We've been on a war footing with Iran for over 30 years -- Israel for more. If we didn't have these things, the military couldn't "scare up" $800 Billion+ from Congress and Israel would have to start treating Palestinians like they were citizens.

They get to complain about bombings from people with no hope or future in the Occupied Territories -- just like we get to complain about the violence of Drug Gangs in Mexico. Neither problem would exist without exploitation or a "war on something" to justify removing civil rights.

Without external threats -- they'd have to spend money on the average citizen and making life better. That would totally ruin the value of being a Rich Oligarch.

Things have to happen before this war happens-

1- Syrian regime has to go first

2- Israel, on a leash about to snap, need a green light from America because they cannot go this alone.

3- The green light will come from a false flag event, could be anywhere in the world, but as policy experts say, the 'more deadly and more outrageous' the better the justifiction will be.

God help the Iranian people, innocent families, women and children who just want to live their lives in peace

reply to post by tothetenthpower


Wars like these are what I'd call, forgive me, proper wars.

There is a deceleration of wrongs, an argument of ethics, and then a drawing of lines, followed by a simple war to show who has the right to say and the need to shut up.


For that reason, if it would come to war, I honestly can't say it would be wrong.


It seems pretty clear the US would be limited in its actions, Israel would simply be in it for proving a point, and Saudi Arabia might collapse from the civil weight of it.


So...

✔ No occupation of Iran
✔ Collapse of brutal theocracy in Saudi Arabia
✔ Syrian Collapse
✔ Turkish invasion of Syria + strengthened western ties
✖ Occupation of Golan Heights + prolonged argument with Syria. Possible Turkish occupation.
✔ Turko-Greek relationships bolstered possibly
✖ Set up for possible Turko-Greek Nationalism against Germany
✖ Probable extermination of most Palestinians.


eh, could be worse. Could be raining!

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


I'd say the Americans are about as involved as the Russians.

It seems likely it will be a regional war with super powers backing up, but not actively involved with, the war.

The only woe would be Iraq. Because Iran would happily invade, but Iraq might actually win armed with US weapons. And if Iraq wins, it may try to occupy Iran. That's a problem.

If US influence is strong enough, then Iraq will simply offer border strikes against Iran. Sort of a way of not officially allying with Israel, but fighting their long-time enemy Iran.



Yes, it has the potential to unravel like WW1, that being a regional power sucking in global influences because of badly planned alliances. But I'm going to argue that this is more like the 1880s and 90s than WW1. If there is to be a global war, that will come is a decade or two. This is simply drawing the lines for that greater, more awesome war that will come. Awesome used here as a sign of power, not a word that means it's awesome like Double chocolate Cookies.


In all likelihood the goal of this war is to force Iran and Syria to be with Nato and the west. Thereby unifying the front against Russia. The scale of Chinese influence is unknown, but it could cause wave reactions in South East Asia. If Iran and Syria were to be brought over to western influence, and Vietnam and Indochina continue moving closer to the US, it begins to create a domino effect of isolating China and Russia. Russia could easily collapse with some push and ally with NATO. That leaves China all alone.

A billion people against a billion people....

The Lebanon warning is because the CIA/MI6 are just kicking off their dark arts in Lebanon too, within 6 months they'll be in a similar situation to Syria. NATO will be called into both nations, in a handy location for attacking Iran afterwards.

Originally posted by SrWingCommander
While things certainly could get out of hand and quickly, I don't think "1 month and 500 civillian casualties" is all that unrealistic.

Israeli Civil Defense is pretty good, with shelters/bunkers for a large percentage of the population, along with gas masks, with local civil defense drills that are frequent, and have picked up in number and realism lately. Settlers/civillians in high risk, border, and contested area's are also well armed with rifles and submachine guns. Most civillians will be in shelters once this rolls out.

The attack will go something like this:

1) Sub launched Cruise and possibly conventional ballistic missiles will strike.
2) Shortly after about a 60 to 100 (long range F-15I and F-16I) IDF aircraft raid will hit

The missiles and aircraft will hit a variety of air defense, command and control, and ballistic missile sites.
Follow up strikes over the next several days/nights will hit the actual Nuclear sites.

3) At the same time the rest of the IDF Air Force will hit areas in Lebanon, and possibly Syria to disable shorter range rockets, known terrorist cells, possibly Syrian Air Force. They may wait to see if there is actual retaliation,but my guess is they go after knows sites right away.
4) Isreali Special Forces, and possibly main force armored and mech forces will secure areas in Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza to hit morter, rocket, and artillery sites to prevent as much retaliation as possible.
These will also provide security zones outside of their territory should Syria, Lebenon, and Iranian forces there make a move. Fight them on their turf. Armored units in the Sianni Area also are on high alert incase Egypt tries to intervine. I don't think they will, but THAT would definatley complicate matters.

5) Arrow, Iron Dome, and Patriot defend against incoming missiles as much as possible.

THE WORLD HOLDS ITS BREATH TO SEE WHAT NATO, THE US, RUSSIA, and CHINA do, and see how Iran has whethered the attack.

Likely the US gets involved at some level, because the Iranians will probably try to retaliate on the US Navy. Syria will also slip into more chaos, so expect NATO to intervine. UN meets to determine what, if anything, should be done next. China and Russian huff an puff, but PROBABLY don't actually do anything. BUT that is probably the ultimate unknown here. Iranian and Al-Quedia terrorist strikes in the US or Europe are also an unknown. That could have various and severe consequences in the US.

6) Assuming no WMD are used and the above stay out of it., most offensive operations, missile strikes, and air raids are done in 3-5 days. With maybe 2-3 weeks of "terrorist" and "insurgent" reprisals and fighting with the IDF.

The BIG unknowns not withstanding, this is how I see this playing out. I may post back with how some of the "unknowns" might roll later if I get time.

edit on 16-8-2012 by SrWingCommander because: clarification

Right on, but I do think that Iran would immediately strike the U.S. forces in the Middle East.

Peace at any costs, Nothing is worth having a war over!!!! NOTHING!!!!

You Lefties are really a work of art. Israel bad, Arab good
Whitey bad, black guy good
Whitey bad, mexican good
I would almost be willing to bet the lot of you are all for same sex marriage as well.

I most sincerely hope Israel nukes them.
I hope the word Israel puts fear into the hearts of muslims where ever they may be and their children wake up at night with nightmares.
I hope their parents despair at the misery they have brought upon their children and themselves and work hard to make sure their leaders spend less time talking about destroying Israel and more time talking about rebuilding their country.
When iran is in ruin, the palastinians will be less inclined towards violence, the syria problem will work itself out on its own and lebanon will have a much more cooperative house guest.

After weighing the facts,
I find iran guilty and sentence them to what ever punishment Israel feels they deserve.

reply to post by SrWingCommander


Russia has a history of being the "First man in", and laying claim to whatever it is they want.
Germany comes to mind as well as the airport in kosovo.