NEWS: Hurricane Ivan, Not again! UPDATE: He's Back, T.S. Style!

Current projected path of Ivan....shifted a bit, might take it into the Gulf eventually, which would mean we get the backside of the storm (which would suck...) Still a lot of days to go though...

[edit on 7-9-2004 by Gazrok]

Last projection....



Lets just hope it does this.... Nothing against Louisianna, but the folks who had the roughest from Charlie, then Frances, do NOT need another one....

[edit on 7-9-2004 by Gazrok]

Gazrok.. I'd like to tell you the news is better for Florida but it isn't. Latest computer models have the storm moving north over Cuba and in the direction of south Florida. NOGAPS and UKMET have it making landfall in FL. GFS and BAMM have it moving north-northwest towards the southern coast of Cuba in a path dangerous to FL. Only GFDL has it staying on a west-northwest track toward the Yucatan. I wouldn't puth much faith in GFDL the way it performed with Frances.

We're under a tropical storm warning now here on Aruba.

Even that isn't good news.

Best of luck Bandit.

OK, Ivan's back up to CAT 4

"000
WTNT34 KNHC 072350
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE SEP 07 2004

...IVAN REGAINS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN..."

"REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IVAN IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS."

The latest projection I saw had Ivan moving between Cuba and the Yucatan into the Gulf. Then I heard it might curve more to the north. I'm expecting more rain here in South Carolina. Every single storm this year seems to come back here and rain if it hits the US. I'm expecting Florida will get a break soon. The peak hurricane season is over after September.

Hurricane Warning for Aruba!!!

Now I'm worried...

Stay Safe Bandit, Ivan is scary. Isn't it extremely rare for Aruba to get a hurricane, much less at cat 4????

I can't get hold of my cousin in Trinidad and from what it looked like on satellite, Tobago got clobbered.

Grenada also got slammed pretty hard, I have heard there are already 3 deaths credited to Ivan.

Gazrok.. I'd like to tell you the news is better for Florida but it isn't. Latest computer models have the storm moving north over Cuba and in the direction of south Florida.

One can hope though, hehe... Yeah, saw that this morning... Still a lot of factors though...

Stay safe Bandit...check my hurricane tips thread in Sci/Tech forum....

Here's the latest,

"IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE
ISLANDS.

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS."

Right now the five big models have the storm moving north across Cuba between 78N and 84N. BTW... Florida falls in between those points. But its still too early to tell. That has to be a very low confidence forecast at least until Ivan leaves a hint of turning NW or NNW.

I can't remember exactly, but what path did Charlie take? Seems like it was kind of similar to Ivan. If he takes a sharp N-NE turn than Florida will have been hit in the East, West, AND South coasts in one season, what are the odds!?!?!

Similar to the one predicted for Ivan, but with more of a curve, and putting Charlie to the right of the Tampa Bay area... We were real close to the eye of Charlie, but because it was such a tight storm, and we were in the northwest quadrant, we saw little more than some wind....

Just heard on the news that at least 9 dead in Grenada wich took a direct hit with Jamaica next in line.

This is the latest from accuweather,

Hurricane Ivan is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane. As of 2 p.m. EDT, Ivan was centered at 13.1 north, 67.0 west, or about 740 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Ivan is moving west-northwestward at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 140 mph. The central pressure in Ivan is 949 millibars or 28.02 inches. We expect Ivan to continue on a west-northwest course for the next 2-3 days, bringing the hurricane just north of The Dutch Netherland Antilles today and over or close to Jamaica on Friday. Ivan will probably undergo fluctuations, and there is a concern this hurricane could become a very dangerous Category 5 hurricane. The track that Ivan takes past the end of the week is very uncertain. Model output is showing a gradual turn to the northwest and then to the north toward Florida Sunday. However, this far out we cannot be sure of the future track of late in the weekend or early next week. All interests in the northern and northwest Caribbean, as well as all interests in the Gulf of Mexico, should keep a close eye on Ivan.

And then the latest from the NOAA website.




Looks like Florida is going to get hit pretty bad again. It seems to be slowly inching towards Florida every time the forecast track is updated. I won't be surprised to see it hit Florida. The only thing I can look forward to from this is have no school for a while.

Looks like the storm is trying to live up to its name IVAN the terabil.
Should have named it Wimmpy and demanded it to turn around on Tuesday.

Latest Ivan update, certainly NOT whimpy.