Irene and New York: "Category 4 could be USA's greatest disaster"

Originally posted by _BoneZ_
Irene will not be anywhere near a Cat. 4 when it hits New York City. It will either be a weak Cat. 2 or a strong Cat. 1. Still strong enough to do significant damage either way.

You can't say for certain.

*Current forecasts have the storm tracking up the coast, clipping the coast of NC, and heading straight for NYC

*The NE seaboard has loads of moisture in the air right now.

*The ocean temps are just under the temp needed to build strength on the NE seaboard.. They are perfect for sustaining strength, though. (~80°+ to build strength. ~70°-80° to sustain). Right now, as a Cat. 3, it is off the coast of FL. The water temps are ~85°. They drop to ~80° around the Chesapeake Bay area, and are ~75° all the way up to Boston.

Moisture + ~80° water temp = strength building hurricane.

Will directly hit Manhattan as a weaker cat 3 or strong cat 2, result is near total destruction either way.

I think it's supposed to be down to a cat. 2 by the time it hits new york.

Originally posted by rogerstigers

Originally posted by PhotonEffect
Still a bit early to speculate, but the tracking of Irene is putting it smack dab over the nyc area by Saturday night

Theyre already saying that the entire public transportation system could be shut down for a couple days. There are definitely some low lying area around downtown Manahattan that even with a Nor'easter tends to get pretty screwed up...

I live in the city so I'll be keeping a close eye on this.

We don't do hurricanes so good..... or earth quakes...

Isn't much of Manhatten kept dry using subterranean pumps? I remember seeing something about that on "The world without humans"

Well, they have pumps But not sure it could keep up with something like this...

reply to post by eywadevotee


"near total destruction either way"
Lol. Fear monger much?

Originally posted by GogoVicMorrow
I think it's supposed to be down to a cat. 2 by the time it hits new york.

It can't weaken that much.

The water temps are too high, and there is waaaay too much humidity in the air on the NE seaboard.

If it does weaken that much, it will be a miracle.

Does anybody know how high the storm surge is suppose to be in NY, or how many feet it needs to be for it to flood Wall street ?The latest forcast calls for it to be a Cat 1 when it hits NY,, is that big enough for it to still flood Wall street.. It seems like they are hyping this storm to much for a Cat 1..

reply to post by Lemon.Fresh



Actually I took that into account and that's why I said cat 2. Some are saying cat. 1.

boingboing.net...

Originally posted by GogoVicMorrow
reply to post by eywadevotee

 

"near total destruction either way"
Lol. Fear monger much?

as much as all the news agencies are

Originally posted by rancher1
Does anybody know how high the storm surge is suppose to be in NY, or how many feet it needs to be for it to flood Wall street ?The latest forcast calls for it to be a Cat 1 when it hits NY,, is that big enough for it to still flood Wall street.. It seems like they are hyping this storm to much for a Cat 1..

Last I heard 3-7 foot surge around lower Manhattan and Brooklyn-

I think as much as 10 ft around JFK and east of there.

Think it depends on the tracking. But a Cat 1 is plenty strong enough to create some flooding havoc.

New York City
The eyewall of Irene will pass close to the city late Sunday. There is an elevated risk of flooding rain (6 to 12 inches) and damaging winds throughout the metro area including the northern and western suburbs. Expect significant coastal flooding. Hurricane-force wind gusts (80 mph) are in store, which will lead to downed trees, as well as widespread power outages in outlying areas. Sustained hurricane-force winds are likely on Long Island and in coastal Connecticut. Coastal areas along southern Long Island can expect an average storm surge of 3 to 6 feet with a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet elsewhere. Waves will top seawalls Sunday.

www.accuweather.com...

This is a bit concerning...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/5d4526e909f0.png[/atsimg]

The animation looked a little dramatic, if a hurricane was coming would all those people really be out walking around when the wave hit? Or the glass started falling?

reply to post by PhotonEffect


Thanks man!!! those high tides have great timing,, add to that a Cat 1 storm the waves will have to be at least 8 feet.. looks like I will be glued to the TV all weekend...

reply to post by GogoVicMorrow


All I am saying is it would only take a ~25mi eastward deviation to screw up the forecast (no landfall, over warmer water).

Like the GFS model has it doing

And it has already started tracking more NE than it was when that map was updated

reply to post by Lemon.Fresh


Yeah, but they are usually off on these. I would say weak cat. 2 or strong 1 when it gets to NY.

reply to post by GogoVicMorrow


but they also usally over predict meaning they choose it to be stronger rather than weaker.

reply to post by Doublemint


Thats what i meant?

so when them hurricanes hit florida, new orleans, texas not a big deal but a category whatever hits the eastcoast....WHOA WATCH OUT. lol new yorkers are funny same as the eq's. sorry had to get in my 7 giggles

reply to post by ConspiraCity


Wow dude, crazy video, a tropical storm shattered our neighbors house on Long Island, who knows what a Category 4 or 5 would do