Is Long Valley Supervolcano Activating? Swarm Just started

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Man, all this earthquake activity is starting to freak me out. I wish I could look at a chart of earthquakes per year/per month/per week, by region. Some say "we've always had natural disasters, always will". But I have a strong feeling that "they" are wrong. I bet the quakes are much more frequent in today's time. Who knows though, I've been wrong before. Flag

Well, it's not stopping and hey!

There's a full moon tomorrow...

earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by sirhc0329


I know maybe this will not answer your question, but give it a look earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by sirhc0329


more info earthquake.usgs.gov...

Originally posted by chester1662
reply to post by sirhc0329

 

more info earthquake.usgs.gov...

Thanks a bunch!
2nd line

reply to post by chester1662


Now, here's where I have a problem with USGS. Their statement on whether earthquakes are on the rise says that on average we receive one 8.0mag or larger and seventeen 7.0-7.9mag in the world each year. Last year we had 21 7.0-7.9 eq's and now we are only half way through April and already there have been 8 of that mag range. If the frequency continues at it's current pace then we can expect to see at least 16 to 18 more this year. And that doesn't even get into the smaller quakes (which are increasing as well).

reply to post by PuterMan


Good for you PM! Your link shows that USGS has concerns about LV activity. They would not waste time writing this stuff if nothing is going to happen for many years. Along the same lines, USGS also had a"disaster plan" on the YVO site about six months ago in the event of an eruption. Interesting??? Why waste taxpayers dollars writing up a comprehensive disaster plan for a supervolcano that supposedly isn't going to do anything for thousands of years, or is it?

Originally posted by lernmore
2004

2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami occurred at 00:58:53 UTC on Sunday, December 26, 2004

Curious that, now that we see the current swarm around the Japan quake

Logic says that if the plate moves that much on one side, something has to give on the other side. I would have expected California coast though, not Nevada

TA...I finally did it. Using my many theories I have been working on for the past two years I got somewhat of a cohesive picture and put them all together. It has to do with this swarm. It was the last piece that clicked into place for me when I saw the depth on that 4.6 quake. I started a thread on it, but here is a hint:

Take this swarm and place it just off the coast of either Washington, Oregon or Northern California. NOW what do you think about it? The concept may not be as far off as you might think.

Putting it all together


I think these are foreshocks...but not for what you might think.

why so quiet out here?? everyone sleeping?? the swarm continues, over 245 earthquakes within the last week wow!!! earthquake.usgs.gov...

Originally posted by zorgon

Originally posted by lernmore
2004

2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami occurred at 00:58:53 UTC on Sunday, December 26, 2004

Curious that, now that we see the current swarm around the Japan quake

Logic says that if the plate moves that much on one side, something has to give on the other side. I would have expected California coast though, not Nevada

Hi Zorgon, Interesting post. Do you think that the Earth is alive? All of the earth's cultures at one time or another worshipped the earth as a God/Deity? The one thing that Japan & Nevada have in common is they are both polluted with Radio active waste??? Like a dog that starts scratching as a flea bites, has the world started to scratch itself... maybe Fukushima was already leaking before the quake?

I remember being told that if the earth was an apple, the crust would be the same thickness as an apple skin! Boy does that make you think.

This is old news but does any one have ane update to what's going on?

news.bbc.co.uk...

Perhaps the fleas (humans) are starting to kill the host?

1.4 2011/04/18 07:13:00 37.297 -117.085 7.8 15 km ( 10 mi) E of Tokop, NV
1.0 2011/04/18 07:03:15 37.343 -117.256 38.1 5 km ( 3 mi) N of Tokop, NV
1.1 2011/04/18 06:56:16 37.333 -117.100 7.0 15 km ( 9 mi) ENE of Tokop, NV
1.3 2011/04/18 05:55:50 37.324 -117.123 9.5 12 km ( 8 mi) E of Tokop, NV
1.5 2011/04/18 05:21:40 37.316 -117.098 3.7 14 km ( 9 mi) E of Tokop, NV
2.4 2011/04/18 05:17:12 37.325 -117.120 10.5 13 km ( 8 mi) ENE of Tokop, NV
1.1 2011/04/18 04:04:25 37.316 -117.117 7.0 13 km ( 8 mi) E of Tokop, NV
1.4 2011/04/17 20:29:05 37.317 -117.108 4.8 14 km ( 8 mi) E of Tokop, NV
1.0 2011/04/17 19:25:14 37.336 -117.100 5.3 15 km ( 9 mi) ENE of Tokop, NV

Tokop is seeing a little action.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Here is the map

www.mapquest.com...

reply to post by avatar22

Now, here's where I have a problem with USGS. Their statement on whether earthquakes are on the rise says that on average we receive one 8.0mag or larger and seventeen 7.0-7.9mag in the world each year. Last year we had 21 7.0-7.9 eq's and now we are only half way through April and already there have been 8 of that mag range. If the frequency continues at it's current pace then we can expect to see at least 16 to 18 more this year. And that doesn't even get into the smaller quakes (which are increasing as well).

I may be proved wrong but I think we will see no more by the end of this year than there were last year, and there may even be fewer. I further think that next year there may be fewer again. Why do I think that? Basically because as far as I can see there is a pattern of lowered seismicity after a big quake for a year or two. Of course that is no guarantee that the pattern will hold.

You can forget the smaller quakes. Anything under 5.0 is not worth bothering with, and for the purposes of activity there is no solid record extending back of quakes under 6.5 if you want to look at the long term (I am looking at 1930 to present as I said to you on another thread.)

reply to post by zorgon

2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami occurred at 00:58:53 UTC on Sunday, December 26, 2004

Very end of 2004. Was the map not for September 2004.

I don't see a connection here personally.

So an earthquake can't cause a volcano to erupt, huh? So tell us those with masters degrees. Except those with masters degrees in geology aren't the best to rely upon when it comes to volcanoes. For that we have volcanologists. And Thank God. Because kro32 is sadly mistaken. And not only is he sadly mistaken, but he is sadly mistaken with the very volcano he has been talking about to illustrate his supposed point: Mount St. Helens and the huge explosive eruption of May 18th, 1980.

From this video produced by the USGS, it clearly states in the first 40 seconds THAT IT WAS AN EARTHQUAKE THAT CAUSED A MASSIVE LANDSLIDE THAT UNCORKED (take notice PuterMan, since you were so kind to be corking humorous earlier) THE VOLCANO TO PRODUCE THE ERUPTION:



So yes, you are damn straight that an earthquake can cause an eruption. Earthquakes are extremely powerful forces that can cause extremely unpredictable results. And ESPECIALLY in the vicinity of volcanoes.

And you guys wonder why I am concerned? You wonder why the experts are concerned? I said early on in this sequence that this rapid swarm in Nevada could be due to insistent magma intrusion, because of the nature, signatures, and frequency of these quakes. I can't see how anyone could question whether they are connected to the Long Valley supervolcano.

Of course they are. When you are dealing with magma plumes so big as this, anywhere within a couple hundred kilometers of the thing is fair game. These are happening a mere 50 kilometers or less from the Long Valley caldera.

And just look at the issue of Yellowstone, the hotspot, and how it has migrated northeast over millions of years. What is crucial to understand is that it wasn't the hotspot that migrated. It was the North American PLATE that moved southwestward over the existing hotspot instead. Ask any scientist at the YVO, and they will tell you that anything that happens in the area of Yellowstone, a huge area, is most likely connected in some way to that beast.

And that brings me straight back to Long Valley. With that same plate migration, the plume which was underneath Long Valley may likely be north and east now as well.

In this case more north than east, but still, the point remains. Right in the vicinity of where this swarm is occurring.

YES I get concerned when we have a massive quake near any one of these calderas. YES I get concerned when swarms close to these calderas include many 4+ mag quakes, and suddenly increase in frequency. Because any one of them at any time can trigger disaster. Most of the time they don't. But that one time it does, we need to be aware of this. So stay vigilant my friends and don't let your guard down for even one second. Cause even those with masters degrees can't "put a cork in it." It can happen just as sure as I sit here typing.

And further, following is a video of what the seismic signature of rock breaks or fractures looks like:



It's short and quick. Take a look.

Now compare that to the GEE signatures I posted in the very OP. Identical!

Now, what causes repeated rock breaking quakes, very fast in succession, in a swarm that just won't let up? 1) Faulting? Maybe. 2) Magma intrusion? Maybe. 3) Hydrothermal pressure fracturing rock above it? Maybe.

But it is probably one of those three.

And for those living in the area of Long Valley, you better damn well hope it is number one of those three.

ETA: Actually, the ones in the OP are just similar. It is what I have been witnessing since the outbreak, THAT IS IDENTICAL TO WHAT YOU SEE IN THAT VIDEO IN THIS POST- by the hundreds.

And this is why it IS concerning. When you have so many quakes, even smaller ones like what we have been seeing here in this swarm (forget all the bigger 4+ ones for the moment), it can destabilize rock on scales massive enough to cause sudden and unpredictable results. What was once protective layering of rock that was capable of containing immense pressure can weaken. We've been lucky enough so far at Yellowstone and even here with Long Valley. Key words: "Lucky enough SO FAR."

And the quakes are getting more shallow, on average now. I believe PuterMan just demonstrated this in another thread as verifiable fact. Something changed back on the 14th. What, we don't know, but perhaps one better take a look at your likely three choices again and THINK. Long and hard.

Yeah, volcanoes are bad for business. They'll hold out until the very last possible second to notify anyone. And that would be ok with me if they had this down to verifiable, repeated outcomes and a prediction model that was so accurate they COULD wait safely until the last possible second to issue evacuation orders.

They lost a valuable scientist who was killed at that very eruption of St. Helens. And he's not the only one. Another whole team was killed while investigating another volcano which had shown warning signs, and then suddenly erupted in their faces. So how many more deaths will occur before people get the idea? :shk:

Bottom line: when one of these beasts acts up, best be safe than sorry....or dead. Because what happens next can be so sudden and devastating, there is not time for warnings. There is not time to drive. Not time to pack. And not time to move.

All those that stand to be affected have that time now. Now come on, I can't tell you "I told you so" if you are burned or gassed to death and buried in 20 feet of ash.

And ohh, umm, now you can add back in all those 4+ quakes in this swarm I told you to forget earlier.

Thanks OP for the info.

Also, thanks for the links posted in reply.

Something I saw as kinda HMMM
We got a flier this weekend to come to Yellowstone and see the sights
and then we saw a commercial on TV for Advertising for Yellowstone.

With the west coast moving and shakin like it has been
Yellowstone will be my last vacation place
Also, I am not getting a warm fuzzy with all the areas that used to be
old volcanoes acting up. Bermuda just had a quake today.

So... when is the big blow?