Quake Watch 2011

reply to post by SpaceJockey1

yeah exact locations a bit wobbly, will take time I guess.
Geonet really slow getting the data out, must have quit for the holidays already.
That will kill the Christmas Shopping I guess, really feel for you Cantabs,it must be really hard to keep motivated.

reply to post by muzzy


The third one was the biggest...and just saw another aftershock (not reported yet) in GEE.

Because of the increasing magnitude of that last one, vigilance is needed. Could be leading up to a bigger one in the next hours or days. The epicenters of these three quakes don't appear to be aftershocks of the 6.3 or from the 7.1, due to their "new" location. And this means, I think, that we are looking at a fresh rupture. Given all that, yeah, be careful fellow NZ'ers near Christchurch. And also, these are occurring very shallow right near the waterfront- meaning if a big one hits in that location, a tsunami is very likely- and will be near immediate, and no doubt- deadly.

Careful folks, sad to say. So sorry you must endure such things.

ETA: And oh, just in case readers may see conflicting information in this thread:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

(Someone claiming that these ARE aftershocks of the 6.3), I will further qualify my post, because I do not believe they are primarily for two reasons:

1) Location. Before I made the above comment, I went and pulled the exact epicenters, then went and pulled the exact epicenters for both the 6.3 and the 7.1. These are in new location.

2) The magnitude at 6.0 is not characteristic of an aftershock from a 6.3, at least, not after this amount of time has passed between them. Usually aftershocks are located closer, and the magnitude of the highest aftershock from mainshock is almost always 1 magnitude point or more. And .3 difference of course is way outside that parameter.

I'd say those are two compelling reasons to believe this is a fresh, or fresher rupture on an extension fault. They might be linked, but are probably not in this case. A case which I rest, but hey, anyone is free to disagree.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


So these quakes could be foreshocks?
I was wondering about that when I
heard about the 6.0.

If another is forthcoming - any idea of
what to might expect in magnitude?

What a day

Really hoping these aren't foreshocks and are just part of the pattern (despite being on nearby seperate faults)

Glad I got the Christmas spirits in early - think I'll start on them now...

Kia Kaha fellow Cantabrians..

xx

They're evacuating residents of Sumner

No they're not - they are assessing some cliff top properties and those that are prone to rockfall but they are NOT evacuating all residents of Sumner.. (Source: several friends who live there)

Originally posted by crazydaisy
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

So these quakes could be foreshocks?
I was wondering about that when I
heard about the 6.0.

If another is forthcoming - any idea of
what to might expect in magnitude?

1) Well given that I can't even find this fault on the active faults database:
maps.gns.cri.nz...

2) and that this appears to be completely disconnected from the previous quakes... and

3) that this appears to be occurring on the upper lip of the subduction zone, very shallow, and characteristic of a subduction zone quake:

I am about 90% certain this is a new rupture point and is potentially very dangerous. The close proximity to shore is particularly troublesome, should a bigger rupture occur. There just won't be any time before the wave hits. I am talking a few minutes- or less.

The comforting thing I suppose is that there have been these size quakes in the past at that location, or close to it:
neic.usgs.gov...

So hopefully, this will pass without further incident.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Thanks for verification, I was looking at it
pretty much the same with much less
experience. How much more can they
take, the structures must be very weakened
already?

Stay safe people, please.

That last quake was number 7,749 since the 7.1 main quake last Sept.. we're getting used to them, almost miss them when they don't happen...

www.canterburyquakelive.co.nz...

So far, according to Geonet
interactive map of the latest events
MMagnitude, Reference, Latitude, Longitude, UTC Date (yyyy/mm/dd), UTC Time (hh:mm:ss), Depth, Location, Felt, TNT
5.850, 3631359, -43.48884, 172.77126, 2011/12/23 0:58:38, 10, o/s 185 Marine Parade, New Brighton, Christchurch 8083, 1250, 8982.730
5.329, 3631363, -43.4729, 172.84061, 2011/12/23 1:6:26, 10, o/s 185 Marine Parade, New Brighton, Christchurch 8083, 25, 1485.622
4.607, 3631366, -43.49957, 172.85413, 2011/12/23 1:11:23, 10, o/s 700 Little Pigeon Bay Rd, Pigeon Bay 7583, , 122.718
4.151, 3631367, -43.52953, 172.93843, 2011/12/23 1:14:58, 9, o/s 700 Little Pigeon Bay Rd, Pigeon Bay 7583, 5, 25.404
6.000, 3631380, -43.52948, 172.73843, 2011/12/23 2:18:4, 6, 11 Sandra St, South New Brighton, Christchurch 8062, 650, 15080.242
5.041, 3631432, -43.52475, 172.92046, 2011/12/23 3:50:13, 10, o/s 700 Little Pigeon Bay Rd, Pigeon Bay 7583, 34, 549.425
3.003, 3631439, -43.54488, 172.7697, 2011/12/23 4:4:51, 13, o/s 165E Rocking Horse Rd, Southshore, Christchurch 8062, , 0.482
3.999, 3631441, -43.48103, 172.80257, 2011/12/23 4:8:5, 9, o/s 351 Kainga Rd, Brooklands, Christchurch 8083, 4, 15.028

You can keep up to date on the aftershocks on the Canterbury Quake Live single events page but his daily circles page is useless, the circles are too big

reply to post by muzzy


Muzz, those epicenter locations appear to be mostly or all wrong on the map. I just went and saw them and those locations aren't it, especially the 6.0. Need double checking on that please, cause something's way off. I mean way off, by kilometers.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


what are you comparing too?
those are the Geonet co-ordinates
you can compare mine with the Christchurch Live site, they match exactly because we use the same data which is off here magma.geonet.org.nz... just type 23 in the first box and select type of download at the bottom and submit and it will come back.
here is the raw Excel CSV file I just downloaded now link to Excel File
26 events since the first 5.8

I consider these all aftershocks of the original 7.1, OK they are quite a few km away from the 7.1 but in my opinion the 7.1 activated a series of old faults running to the east, and all the events since Sept 3 are aftershocks,
think like a zip opening up.

probably coincidence but today was this months perigee.


we shall see in the next few months coming up to may...

I hope everyone in NZ is safe and prepared after these new shakes.

I consider these all aftershocks of the original 7.1, OK they are quite a few km away from the 7.1 but in my opinion the 7.1 activated a series of old faults running to the east, and all the events since Sept 3 are aftershocks, think like a zip opening up.

My thoughts exactly Muzzy....

The stress is spreading around the area .

Type: Earthquake
21 minutes ago
Magnitude: 5.5
DateTime: Friday December 23 2011, 10:51:55 UTC
Region: south of the Kermadec Islands
Depth: 8.9 km
Source: USGS Feed

quakes.globalincidentmap.com...

Originally posted by dreamfox1
The stress is spreading around the area .

Type: Earthquake
21 minutes ago
Magnitude: 5.5
DateTime: Friday December 23 2011, 10:51:55 UTC
Region: south of the Kermadec Islands
Depth: 8.9 km
Source: USGS Feed

quakes.globalincidentmap.com...

Nah the Kermadecs has its own set of actions.. active area.

reply to post by muzzy


You had me going there a minute. Papua NG consists of these bands

Hem,Lat,LonMin,LonMax,Region
S, -7, 141, 143, 202
S, -6, 141, 146, 202
S, -5, 141, 145, 202
S, -4, 141, 144, 202
S, -3, 141, 142, 202

So I was looking at the quake you found and wondering how -1.757, 134.297 could come under that.

The answer is that it didn't. The quake causing that spike was this:

Date/Time, Lat, Lon, Mag, Depth
2002-09-08T18:44:23.710Z, -3.302, 142.945, 7.6, 13

I have to say that I don't think the FE regions are ideal as far as looking at earthquake patterns go. That Papua boundary is the political boundary and has no relevance to earthquakes.

Someone (Us?) needs to define seismic areas as these patently are NOT seismic areas but are just used for naming locations.

Anyone interested in having a go at deciding the seismic areas? That is a MAJOR task!!

Edit to add: Irian Jaya. Indonesia is region 201 and it consists of these bands.

Hem,Lat,LonMin,LonMax,Region
S, -7, 140, 141, 201
S, -6, 139, 141, 201
S, -5, 139, 141, 201
S, -4, 137, 141, 201
S, -3, 136, 141, 201
S, -2, 137, 139, 201

You can see by the LonMax value that this butts up against 202. Seismically this possibly should be one area, but there are some very complex plate boundaries so maybe it should be divided somehow else.

Speaking about the Ev...l

TextMagnitude 4.9 Date-Time Friday, December 23, 2011 at 14:54:05 UTC Saturday, December 24, 2011 at 12:54:05 AM at epicenter Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones Location 2.961°S, 148.279°E Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) Region ADMIRALTY ISLANDS REG., PAPUA NEW GUINEA Distances 153 km (95 miles) SE of Lorengau, Manus Island, PNG 283 km (175 miles) W of Kavieng, New Ireland, PNG 729 km (452 miles) N of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea 2762 km (1716 miles) NNW of BRISBANE, Queensland, Aus

source(earthquake.usgs.gov...

Here is a map to help Flinn-Engdahl region.

From

The Flinn-Engdahl Regionalisation Scheme: The 1995 revision

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors
Volume 96, Issue 4, September 1996, Pages 223-297

will upload the 3 MB pdf and post it

reply to post by myself because I like talking to myself


I said:

Someone (Us?) needs to define seismic areas as these patently are NOT seismic areas but are just used for naming locations.

Yes that is exactly what they are now I had a closer look. The seismic regions are 52 in number, but clearly they are very loose I feel. Take 34 - covers basically the whole of central and eastern USA in one big lump. There is no way that a quake in the GOM has anything to do with one just off the coast of Greenland yet that body of water comes under 34.

That in my humble opinion is just nonsense.

37 as another example - the whole of Africa except the northern strip Tunisia, Libya and Egypt and also including Saudi Arabia, The Yemen and the Red Sea.

Cojones I say. Time to rewrite the map to better specification!

Sorry, forgot the link to THE MAP

By the way on the map are links to various ps (postscript files) despite the fact that it is said that adobe reader can read them it can't, at least not v10.2. This free utility XN View - which is excellent for many other graphical tasks - can read them.

XN View has conversion facilities, resizing and much much more and is a tool worth having anyway even if you don't want to read ps files!

Take it that will be your project for next year then PM?.....Just thought I would say something so you didn't feel alone on the thread.....would hate for you to start growing hairs on the palm of your hand too!

Rainbows with santas
Jane

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/003192019603141X

The Flinn-Engdahl Regionalisation Scheme: The 1995 revision

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors
Volume 96, Issue 4, September 1996, Pages 223-297

doi:10.1016/0031-9201(96)03141-X

---

Free fulltext uploaded, 3.59 MB size.

59 maps, the last being the 'visual index'

jjjtir.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/the-flinn-engdahl-regionalisation-scheme-the-1995-revision.pdf