Quake Watch 2011

Ozone from Rock Fracture Could Serve as Earthquake Early Warning

www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/11/111117154635.htm

Applied Physics Letters peer-reviewed study abstract cited -

apl.aip.org/resource/1/applab/v99/i20/p204101_s1

Appl. Phys. Lett. 99, 204101 (2011); doi:10.1063/1.3660763 (3 pages)
Ozone generation by rock fracture: Earthquake early warning?
Raúl A. Baragiola, Catherine A. Dukes, and Dawn Hedges

Engineering Physics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22904, USA

(Received 10 August 2011; accepted 26 October 2011; published online 14 November 2011)

We report the production of up to 10 ppm ozone during crushing and grinding of typical terrestrial crust rocks in air, O2 and CO2 at atmospheric pressure, but not in helium or nitrogen. Ozone is formed by exoelectrons emitted by high electric fields, resulting from charge separation during fracture. The results suggest that ground level ozone produced by rock fracture, besides its potential health hazard, can be used for early warning in earthquakes and other catastrophes, such as landslides or land shifts in excavation tunnels and underground mines.

Shut the hell up.

No.

I said, shut the hell up. I told you I don't want to hear it anymore. Shut up.

No. No. I can't

Listen. You've said it. And said it. Really. There's nothing more to say. I get it.

No. No. No, you don't. Everytime I look, it's the same thing. It's impossible to deny.
And, you don't get it. Can't you see what's going to happen? You can't see what's going to happen. Well, I do.

Are you going to shut up?

No. I can't. Look. Look right here. Here's the newest quake in Oklahoma. So what. Right? No. The geologists are saying they can't say for sure if there's a connection. But that's the craziest bat guano I've ever heard. There's no way it's a coincidence. It's a lie and nothing else. Look. That little earthquake. That 2.6M here on Google Earth near Jones, near Oklahoma City, look. Now, you see that little thing over here. That's right. That's not a grain silo. I've worked on farms. At first I thought maybe I'm wrong and it's a feed-lot. Pigs. Nope. That's an injection well. When you click on the quakey symbol and then measure the distance to the injection well, you get 370 meters. How close does it have to get before there's a link?

I believe you. I believe you. Shut up.

No. It's not just one well there. Look. Look. Over here. 1.25 kilometers- there's another injection well. Come on. No. Wait. There's another. 2.19 Kilometers away. That's three wells right near the new earthquake area. And another 2.3 Km away. And look at this big well site over here. Look at all the other quakes in the area. Right beside the wells.

Okay. Do you feel better? You showed me. I see. Can you let it go now?

I don't know. I want to. My helper tells me to set realistic goals. I don't have any. I don't even want to be writing this necessarily. I was going to stick to poems. But what I really want to do is run around screaming my head off. Screaming and screaming, til they bundle me up and stick a needle in me. It's such a romantic notion. To go mad and then fall into the arms of the warm and caring people in the white coats and spongy sneakers. But it doesn't work that way. I'd be pulling out my hair. Thankfully I shave my head.

Didn't your helper tell you to take some credit and relax?

Yes. Yes. And I told her there's no point in that. 'Cause we're on a big bus, altogether. And I'm not driving. The driver isn't listening. I can't pretend I'm not on the bus. Nor can I forget my childeren behind me. I wish I could just seperate it out and move on. I can't. I guess I'm addicted.

What?

I'm addicted to doom.

Really?

Yes, really. It started when I was a kid and obsessed on monsters. Mysteries, myths and monsters. I was like a crack baby. I wanted to find the real thing. I wanted it to be real. I've hated growing up and finding many were not. All my life I've wanted to know the secret behind the scary stuff. I guess I can't grow up.

Shut the hell up. What is this, a therapist's couch? Get the hell out of here.

Edit

Back in the 1950's television was live.

You forgot the sponser dumbass.

This emotional tirade was brought to you by, "The Kansan", at thekasan.com.
www.thekansan.com...
See. They're getting nervous in Kansas. They've just jumped on the gas boom bandwagon. Why do I have to keep linking articles? I feel like a shill. I know you think it gives us credibility, but come on.

Shut up and read the cue cards given you. Without their resources and brand, you're nothing. Without support, you may as well have a placard reading "the end is nigh", and be just roaming around Main Street. We're done here anyway. Wrap it up.

sellout

What?

nothing

reply to post by muzzy


Thanks for all the info. That's what caught my attention. That PR / VI could have so many & Haiti wasn't . Being so close & along the same fault line, I would think it would have had at least a few little rumbles too. Like the fault was locked & pressure built up during the lull near where they had the big one?

reply to post by TrueAmerican

I switched off after the 5.7, been a long week at work
I live on the West Coast, so even a 7.6 wouldn't have really affected us Tsunami wise

GEE has never worked for NZ stations, I have mentioned it in the past, so I have never used it beyond loading it and having a look to see what its about, then uninstalling it..

. Bit worrying with that series of quakes off the NZ coast, though. Does this tend to happen fairly regularly? I mean, a gradual increase in magnitudes of the events like that? Anyone have some historical data to hand?

I mentioned in my post when the 2nd Mag 5 hit, that this ascending magnitude sequence was unusual for New Zealand, most quakes are main shock out of nowhere and then aftershocks. Thats why i usually roll my eyes when ATS posters see a few quakes in the same spot within a short period and ask "more coming?", or " is there a bigger one to come yet?", because 90% of the time it just doesn't happen that way.

There are some historial NZ Quake maps on these pages showing NZ Mag 5+'s back to the 1930's, its something I did before I found i-frames to make interactive maps, so thats all it is, maps of each year of Mag 5 locations, with the odd special report on a few. The KMZ Google Earth links are dead now too, and I deleted the original files a few years ago.
Something I should get back to and get upgraded to the current style I'm using on NZ Preliminary Quakes, just not enough hours in the day to do all I want to....
the thing thats holding me back on that is getting detail felt reports to put in the tags is a real chore, Geonet do have the Archives, but its not searchable, you have to go through each month of each year and manually find and dig out the linked pages of the quakes you want.
There are some 1925 events to re-process 1930-end of 2009
FWIW during that period thats some 62,950,761.22 tonnes of TNT energy released (or 4.2 x magnitude 8's)

reply to post by wasobservingquietly

Thanks to you and LorraineRKO for asking the question, it made me figure out a better way to present the graphs so you can see any trends. Putting the big quakes in as well really does tell a better story eh.
Another thing that I find interesting is that there really weren't many aftershocks from Haiti (in Haiti itself), I always have put it down to lack of equipment in the area, but even so where were all the Mag 4's ? (thats another task for a rainy day)
Same with the Sept 10 2006 Mag 6 in the Gulf of Mexico , from memory there was just one aftershok a mag 3.
Maybe its something to do with the Caribbean Plate and how it responds to movement.

reply to post by PuterMan

Thanks, you set a high bench mark Mr.

I spent ages trying to convert that to a vertical bar graph and having all kinds of problems getting the y axis consistant, before realising that it was counting the number of line entries in each year rather than 30-31 day/12 month periods.
I think I'd need to do more work on the data first to get what I was after.

reply to post by jjjtir


I believe there are some studies around the April 6 2009 L'Aquila, Italy 6.3 quake that support this
(sorry don't have the links though)

5.0 2011/11/18 17:39:41 38.809 43.757 10.0 EASTERN TURKEY

Source

Well, this is worrisome

reply to post by PuterMan


Ok, I am absorbing the information in those reports- taking a while. But in one of those very reports:

Typhoons lower pressure on the land but not on the ocean bottom because pressure decrease on the ocean surface is accompanied by a change in sea level such that pressure at depth remains constant; tide-gauge data confirm the increase in sea level. Thus, lower pressure on land both lowers the normal force across the fault and increases the shear stress on a reverse fault, resulting in a slight increase in the likelihood of rupture.

I believe the original question had to do with faults under water. Like lots of water. Like thousands of meters of water. So I accept that low pressure systems could possibly weaken friction pressure on an exposed land fault- that makes sense- but not for deep, under the ocean bottom faults. The water does act as a barrier of sorts, and inhibits any such effect from storms and/or barometric pressure changes for deep oceanic faults.

Nonetheless, the concept is intriguing. But my red flags went up as soon as I read that insurance companies were all over this to try and establish a link between weather, climate change, and quakes. Means more money.

Problem is, most of the quakes associated with pressure changes appear to be small an inconsequential. Unless of course a fault was on a hair trigger anyway (about to give way) and a big pressure drop threw it into rupture. The study in Taiwan is talking about ETS (slow quakes, which westcoast has a thread on around here for the Tacoma area), and which seem to happen only in Typhoon season.

One thing is certain: There are a lot of things that can trigger quakes. Many more than one might think.

What's up Utah?
Your great lake so salty.
Why you so stressed?
Why you so faulty?

Wait, here it is.
No need to be gloomy.
All's well and good,
Speak prophet of doomy.

www.therepublic.com...

www.sltrib.com...

Apparantly there was a 'noise event' yesterday in the vicinity west of Houston, TX.

I was wondering if anyone who has GEE access could take a look at the Hockley Seismo for yesterday and see if there was a seismic event?

With respect and gratitude, if the resonse could be posted here, I would be most grateful

Update of East Cape Swarm, New Zealand

crikey .............. check this out
theres more than we have posted

this is just a part preliminary download 2 hours before the end of 18th UTC, so there will be more

location closercloserer

list

Mag, Ref, Lat, Long, UTC Date Time, Depth, Loation, Felt, Energy Released (tonnes of TNT)
5.378, 3612525, -37.42893, 179.96254, 2011/11/18 2:43:51, 41, os E Cape, Yes, 1,759.577
3.031, 3612528, -37.78313, 179.08107, 2011/11/18 2:51:16, 12, os E Cape, No, 0.531
4.226, 3612529, -37.39529, 179.91057, 2011/11/18 2:55:37, 31, os E Cape, No, 329.16
4.261, 3612534, -37.4452, 179.75618, 2011/11/18 3:6:36, 14, os E Cape, No, 37.146
4.288, 3612536, -37.38319, 179.79866, 2011/11/18 3:11:19, 15, os E Cape, No, 40.776
4.3, 3612895, -37.57645, 179.70667, 2011/11/18 3:11:56, 14, os E Cape, No, 42.502
4.606, 3612538, -37.49967, 179.86888, 2011/11/18 3:15:47, 33, os E Cape, No, 122.295
3.542, 3612542, -37.44564, 179.84935, 2011/11/18 3:30:24, 33, os E Cape, No, 3.100
4.371, 3612544, -37.44506, 179.80011, 2011/11/18 3:38:15, 12, os E Cape, No, 54.314
3.586, 3612552, -37.47663, 179.88486, 2011/11/18 3:54:38, 33, os E Cape, No, 3.609
4.511, 3612558, -37.39287, 179.91005, 2011/11/18 4:11:42, 33, os E Cape, No, 88.086
4.322, 3612560, -37.55275, 179.90558, 2011/11/18 4:14:18, 33, os E Cape, No, 45.857
5.797, 3612567, -37.42303, 179.98921, 2011/11/18 4:34:3, 33, os E Cape, Yes, 7,480.116
4.134, 3612570, -37.48784, 179.90727, 2011/11/18 4:42:50, 33, os E Cape, No, 23.956
4.06, 3612591, -37.47163, 179.7879, 2011/11/18 5:38:55, 12, os E Cape, No, 18.553
4.346, 3612603, -37.27884, 179.87282, 2011/11/18 6:1:56, 33, os E Cape, No, 49.821
3.36, 3612633, -37.46259, 179.83733, 2011/11/18 7:31:57, 14, os E Cape, No, 1.654
4.207, 3612900, -37.61388, 179.92123, 2011/11/18 7:33:6, 6, os E Cape, No, 30.825
4.076, 3612634, -37.5052, -179.99954, 2011/11/18 7:33:7, 26, os E Cape, No, 19.607
6.109, 3612641, -37.56812, -179.91498, 2011/11/18 7:51:21, 38, os E Cape, Yes, 21,973.960
3.807, 3612646, -37.44465, 179.97682, 2011/11/18 8:8:8, 33, os E Cape, No, 7.743
3.599, 3612648, -37.43052, 179.86829, 2011/11/18 8:13:41, 33, os E Cape, No, 3.775
3.791, 3612649, -37.78714, 179.26601, 2011/11/18 8:17:19, 33, os E Cape, No, 7.327
4.394, 3612652, -37.53711, 179.8773, 2011/11/18 8:21:2, 33, os E Cape, No, 58.804
4.255, 3612655, -37.56329, 179.77492, 2011/11/18 8:27:2, 11, os E Cape, No, 36.384
4.334, 3612656, -37.47843, 179.88628, 2011/11/18 8:29:23, 33, os E Cape, No, 47.798,
4.408, 3612658, -37.46439, 179.97598, 2011/11/18 8:32:46, 33, os E Cape, No, 61.717
3.505, 3612660, -37.4408, 179.75179, 2011/11/18 8:39:26, 10, os E Cape, No, 2.728
3.654, 3612661, -37.47992, 179.90062, 2011/11/18 8:42:29, 33, os E Cape, No, 4.565
4.13, 3612666, -37.44363, 179.91035, 2011/11/18 8:55:16, 26, os E Cape, No, 23.627
4.485, 3612920, -37.53853, -179.9541, 2011/11/18 9:7:31, 66, os E Cape, No, 80.521
3.994, 3612681, -37.38808, 179.91255, 2011/11/18 9:42:2, 33, os E Cape, No, 14.771
2.953, 3612685, -37.58428, 179.72556, 2011/11/18 9:52:7, 11, os E Cape, No, 0.405
3.264, 3612687, -37.54789, 179.74551, 2011/11/18 9:56:7, 5, os E Cape, No, 1.187
4.65, 3612695, -37.53085, 179.99174, 2011/11/18 10:16:2, 14, os E Cape, No, 142.367
4.875, 3612917, -37.2754, 179.83743, 2011/11/18 19:59:35, 45, os E Cape, Yes, 309.677

source

Interesting the 6.1 is located on (under) the Pacific Plate whereas most of the others are either under the Australian Plate or under the part of the Pacific Plate which is under the Australian Plate ( if you subsribe to the Subduction Theory)

Energy Released so far = 32,633 tonnes of TNT, and thats not counting the Mag 4's and 3s in the two days prior

Originally posted by muzzy
crikey .............. check this out
theres more than we have posted

Yes, that became pretty clear when I saw the URZ webicorder. I posted it a page or two back. A lot more than just the three. You got yourself a swarm going down. Just be thankful it's not a swarm of killer bees.

reply to post by ericblair4891

While I would take less notice of Jailbird Warren Jeffs than I would of a passing crow that calls caws while winging its way who knows where (straight or otherwise), it is interesting that at least he is not far out in a couple of his doom 'n' gloom ravings. Seattle could well catch it when the CSZ finally lets go, and there could be volcanic activity in some unexpected places as well if there's enough tectonic activity going on in the right places. Or the wrong places, if you're close to them. (I'm not trying to be funny, by the way. Please, no-one think I'm taking this lightly. I'm not. Big quakes are horrendous and we've have plenty round the world already this year. Time for quiet. I hope.)

But then, one doesn't need to be a self-procalimed prophet of the Lord to know that. About Seattle and the PNW and all, I mean.

Plenty of us know it and we ain't proclaiming ourselves prophets. Just use our marbles and look at what the facts are.

But Eric, something tells me that you didn't offer us those links just to inform us what a convicted felon says will be the results of God's wrath if he isn't released from his prison. I've been watching Utah along with other places and for some time have been trying to puzzle out if what's been going on there is directly related to anything else.

Are you perhaps suggesting it is?

Or, muttering to myself sotto voce, I could be reading too much into something. I'm known to do that, along with not reading enough into things I should. Almost never seem to hit it just right.

So okay as it's after 1 am I'll get out of here and catch you all tomorrow. Stay safe and have a peaceful rest of the day, wherever you are.


Mike

reply to post by TrueAmerican

but not for deep, under the ocean bottom faults.

I don't know as I don't have the physics to cope with that but I can tell you that the Reykjanes ridge, which is of course under the ocean, shows a definite trend to more activity when the hurricane season starts and I believe other areas under the sea have been linked to barometric pressure. Of course just because someone says it does not affect the bottom of the seas does not mean that it does not. They are scientists after all so you can't trust a single word they say.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican

Originally posted by muzzy
crikey .............. check this out
theres more than we have posted

Yes, that became pretty clear when I saw the URZ webicorder. I posted it a page or two back. A lot more than just the three. You got yourself a swarm going down. Just be thankful it's not a swarm of killer bees.

I can't see the webicorder you are refering to TA

Now the 60 million dollar question
when does a swarm turn into a mainshock and an aftershock series?
at 3:08pm NZDT we now have 75 earthquakes in the series (started on the 15th Nov)
29 quakes which were a "swarm", but now are "foreshocks"
one quake at 6.1 (the main shock)
and now 45 "aftershocks"

according to the Geonet data there were 6 mag 4's between the 5.7 and the 6.1 but I can only see 4 on Geonets URZ Graph

and can only see one on URZ HHZ graph off IRIS

Timeline and Cross Section of the East Cape "swarm" for four days

two for the price of one



edit: should have put a key on the coloured one
gree=mag2, grey=mag3,yellow=mag4,orange(hidden behind the others)=mag5, red=mag6

map pending

reply to post by muzzy


URZ.NZ.10.HHZ - Current day

URZ.NZ.10.HHZ - 1 days ago

URZ.NZ.10.HHZ - 2 days ago

reply to post by muzzy


A lot of activity in NZ - hope everyone
is alright. Is there a map showing
the swarm, quake and aftershocks?
I wanted see location, distance
and depth.

reply to post by PuterMan

I don't know why I took a screenshot of UHZ for just half a day
off course they are stored for a few weeks anyway for use as direct links.