Quake Watch 2011

reply to post by angelchemuel

Salad? On a cold night? Now wonder the world is shaking, it's cold!

Getting closer to the correct antipode....not!
Magnitude M 4.4
Region GULF OF ADEN
Date time 2011-10-21 20:09:58.9 UTC
Location 11.72 N ; 44.10 E
Depth 10 km
Distances 105 km E Jibuti (pop 623,891 ; local time 23:09:58.9 2011-10-21)
92 km E Awbuk (pop 17,776 ; local time 23:09:58.9 2011-10-21)
77 km NE Sayla' (pop 8,351 ; local time 23:09:58.9 2011-10-21)


Source parameters provided by another agency
EMSC
Rainbows
Jane

I know I was a bit hasty, a 7.? at 7:00am in the middle of eating my cornflakes and with an appointment at the Bank within an hour one does tend to get panicky and overlook some things

Firstly I had the wrong date in the Russians search, 22nd not 21st (12hrs ahead of UTc can get confusing sometimes)
so here is their report

date= 21-Oct-2011 17:57:15.4
lat= -28.86 lon= -176.23
depth= 33km
ms: 7.5/25 mb: 7.2/15

www.ceme.gsras.ru...
Interesting how RAs has 7.5.Ms and 7.2mb and USGS has 7.6Ms but 6.9mb, something lost in the conversion there

Secondly, I won't expect too many aftershocks, if any. If you zoom right in close you'll see the quake was right on the edge of the Australian Plate, I'm not sure how thick the AP is at this point but with the quake at 32.9km I would hazzard a guess and say its right on the interface where the two plates are sliding past each other. Perhaps the remants of an old seamount got snagged and just broke free at that point this morning.
So its not really a "Fault" quake, unless you call the entire Kermadec Trench a "Fault", which is debatable, I call it a Subduction Interface.
And thats all based on the theory of subduction, if you subscribe.
Further West, under the Kermadec Ridge, sure you would get aftershocks there as per the July 7.6, as there are Fault fractures all over the place and quake there more likely to do with upthrust and "splitting" of the crust under stress.



I'll be adding it to the 7+ Project later, just having a look at the phase data of USGS seems a lot of high 6's close by stations but more 7's furthe away :bnghd:

Hey guys and gals,

How do I cut and paste a post on another thread and post it here, as there is a fella that has predicted now three big quakes based on a lull in Haarp activity.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Here it is!

Originally posted by radpetey
Hey guys and gals,

How do I cut and paste a post on another thread and post it here, as there is a fella that has predicted now three big quakes based on a lull in Haarp activity.

Tell me who it is and ill try to get it up for you

Cal is really rocking,there small but a hole lot.........earthquake.usgs.gov...

Cal is really rocking,there small but a hole lot.........earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by eeks4


It is in the natural disasters forum........under...."The guy who predicted earthquakes in Japan, predicts another one in less than a week "

Here it is.........www.abovetopsecret.com...

Man o' man.....The Beast at Long Valley seems to be passing a little gas in the last couple days

Originally posted by radpetey
reply to post by eeks4

 

It is in the natural disasters forum........under...."The guy who predicted earthquakes in Japan, predicts another one in less than a week "

Here it is.........www.abovetopsecret.com...

edit on 21-10-2011 by radpetey because: (no reason given)

My computer keeps crashing and i cant watch it..I tried..Have a new computer coming next week..Does he give another date for a quake?

reply to post by eeks4


Yes, he said Sunday or Monday of this past week.

His other predictions were 4 or 5 days off as well

Very interesting!

He stated that a 7+ could happen based on his findings, but never specifies where.

Check it out in Arkansas earlier.
folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu...

reply to post by SusanFrey


Yes, the 7.6M shook up WHAR lots. I was watching when it hit. I was looking for the little ones. They're still there. Four 2+M and a few tiny ones.

reply to post by SusanFrey


Do you know what this
indicates? I have no idea
how to read but it certainly
looks interesting. I didn't
find any quakes listed today
for Arkansas.

Originally posted by radpetey
reply to post by eeks4

 

Yes, he said Sunday or Monday of this past week.

His other predictions were 4 or 5 days off as well

Very interesting!

He stated that a 7+ could happen based on his findings, but never specifies where.

edit on 21-10-2011 by radpetey because: (no reason given)

Thank you for your reply...Thank you..My computer keeps crashing..cant wait for the new one

Correct me if I'm wrong but only a month or so ago, I could swear that I read on this thread, where a quite active and knowledgeable poster, claimed that earthquake activity had peaked for the year, and we'd be very unlikely to see another 7+ this year?

reply to post by angelchemuel


Maybe Oi bein' daft Ma'am but Oi doesn't see which 'ere quake be Auntpoidle??

Now, since we are talking about Kermies, and Mike mentioned the 7.6 I discover, that is very suitable as I came on to say here is an energy graph of all 4.5+ quakes on USGS from 12h March to today. Note that the biggies, 2 of them, are both Kermedecs.



So, what happens if we wind that back just 4 days to before the Japan quake (which is stil 9.0 in my database and not 9.1) Clue: This should give you a feeling for the power of that 9.1. Spoiler: Wipeout!



Even the 7.6 only features as a very small almost imperceptible 'bump' in the cumulative.

reply to post by SpaceJockey1


About a month ago I said: I have said all along since Japan there will not be another mega quake this year.

So far I am correct. A 7.4 is not a mega quake. Mega quakes are defined normally as 8.5+ (Some say 8.0+)

I also stated somewhere towards the end of August that I thought there would be 4 more mag 7s and at least 25 mag 6 (which on reflection was very much on the light side for the mag 6s and I have no idea why I picked that figure. It should have been more like 45 not 25.)

We still have 1 x mag 7 to go and only about 3 mag 6s, so I was way out on the mag 6.

Of course if it was not me to whom you are referring then I don't know who it was as I don't recall anyone else saying that.

Thnx for clarifying that PuterMan. It does ring a bell now that it was an 8+ not a 7+ you claimed. My apologies for my bad memory

Hopefully you're right and there's only one more 7+ in the works, and definitely no 8+'s!

reply to post by SpaceJockey1


No problem. I genuinely do not think their will be a mega quake but there definitely will be another 7+ and I may be light on that as well as there could be another 3 possibly but, if statistics are to be believed for the last 2 years then it will be just the one. Last year there was only one (21 Dec) from September onwards. 2009 there were 2 in October and none the rest of the year.