Can China Invade Taiwan?

Originally posted by stumason
Like those nasty Iraqi rockets that went 20 miles further than allowed, and then used to demonstrate the case for war?

Oh no the 45 minute weapons! Ahhh run away to the hills!**Runs into wooden shed** "safe atlast in my super secret super protective bunnker built by JIC..."

Oh no the 45 minute weapons! Ahhh run away to the hills!**Runs into wooden shed** "safe atlast in my super secret super protective bunnker built by JIC..."

Those 45 min weapons where something else, the short range rockets that went over the 150 mile limit is what i meant, but you raise another good point there!

And about the hills.....can I get a bus? Been smoking too long, and can't be arsed to run....

Look two Subs and 2 carrier groups would be enough to stop the Chinese form invading Taiwan. 2 carrier groups equals about 150 Fighter jets plus the Taiwanese AF.

Originally posted by WestPoint23
Look two Subs and 2 carrier groups would be enough to stop the Chinese form invading Taiwan. 2 carrier groups equals about 150 Fighter jets plus the Taiwanese AF.

The PLA Air Force consists of 330,000 personnel, operating some 3,500 aircraft and over 1,000 surface-to-air missile systems

The PLA Navy comprises five branches: Surface Combatants, Submarine, Naval Aviation, Coastal Defence, and Marine Corps. The whole service is manned by approximately 268,000 officers and soldiers.

These are the modern surface ships built in the last decade...

4 Type 52C's
4 Type 52B's
2 Type 51C's
4 Sovrennmy
10 Type 53's
2 Type 52's
1 Type 51

That makes 27 modern surface combatants that could provide any western ship with problems... which is plenty to patrol the Taiwan straight leaving the submarines to go hunt out the Taiwanese fleet around the rear of the Island

The US would struggle to get it's ships close enough... I doubt they want to risk losing a carrier

2 carrier does not have 150 fighter jets. It needs to carry other air crafts. Something around 100 is more realistic.

actually depending on which carriers they send there the minimum would be 110 combat aircraft each carrier can carry 85+ aircraft so we are looking at 170 aircraft i would say 20-30 of the 170 all together, of them are recon planes refueling planes, choppers and i dont think that there would be only 2 subs to cover those carriers, im sure there will be Destroyers and Frigates and many other battle ships out there,

I wonder what the response would be from the US if china did actually sink a carrier

Originally posted by COWlan
2 carrier does not have 150 fighter jets. It needs to carry other air crafts. Something around 100 is more realistic.

100 is about right under current loadouts, however, I would be remiss in pointing out that during the cold war, more planes were carried by the Nimitz class than now and there is no reason to believe that they could not do so again in a rapid fashion.

You are also forgetting that B-52's and B-1B's flying out of Guam etc. armed for martime strike will also be able to ensure that more there are more PLAN ships for Davey Jone's locker.

Remember that for the US this would be a defensive war fighting in and around Taiwan, unless the communist government wishes to expand things beyond that scope. So the PLAAF and the PLAN have to cannot play hide and seek etc they have to attack otherwise this is a moot point no? SO figure a hostile sky with hunterkiller subs picking off surface assets, SAMS on Taiwan (Hawk and PAC-2's and 3's) along with the determined taiwanese Naval and Air Forces, you make an invasion nearly impossible unless you want to take this whole mess nuclear then we are all screwed.

Those 2 carrier fleets need to get into position first...are you trying to tell me 1/7th of the US Navy's air power is now situated within several hundred miles of taiwan at all times?

Originally posted by devilwasp
Those 2 carrier fleets need to get into position first...are you trying to tell me 1/7th of the US Navy's air power is now situated within several hundred miles of taiwan at all times?

You speak as though you think the Chinese are capable of launching a massive surprise invasion. This belief is completely false any buildup would be seen weeks in advance of any action allowing the US to position it's fleet with plenty of time. This is of course if they so chose to.

Originally posted by zakattack

I wonder what the response would be from the US if china did actually sink a carrier

In all honesty... I think the US public would demand they cut their losses and pull back...

IF one carrier goes down, there is no reason why it should be the last

Of course the Chinese would be in trouble if the US manouvered their entire fleet to the area... but what are the chances of that? And it's very likely losses would be very heavy on both sides

Originally posted by rogue1
You speak as though you think the Chinese are capable of launching a massive surprise invasion. This belief is completely false any buildup would be seen weeks in advance of any action allowing the US to position it's fleet with plenty of time. This is of course if they so chose to.

It is possible, are you going to say that if the chinese built up forces and left them there for say several months the US is going to keep 1/7th of its carrier fleet there?

I have to disagree, I do not think that losses would be heavy on both sides. The British Navy could probably go through the Chinese navy and knock it clean right now. The Chinese do not have a navy with the technical or professional caliber of the U.S. Navy (or British Navy, which is also very good).

[edit on 29-3-2005 by Broadsword20068]

China right now is not capable of taking over Taiwan, its army is mosty concripts and they have to supply the troops while in Taiwan if they get there. Since most of our land forces in Iraq is there for awhile there is still the air force and navy that aint doing much these days. submarines would be sent to protect Taiwan which probably result in about 40 subs of Los Angeles class subs and a few Sea Wolf class subs. also we have b 52 bombers and b 1 bombers packed with packed with anit ship missles and anti land weapons and also a couple of carrier battle groups to sink any Chinese ships or subs. any amphibous attack will fail with Taiwanese troops waiting for them, it be like D-Day but China loses in that one.

You dont get it delta, you have that much globally but the US will never commit 40 nukes no matter the class into the taiwan straight, the US admirals would politely tell the pres to spin if he though about sending 40 nuclear boats into that straight.

Mabye 10 hell mabye 20 but 40 subs?? no way in hell

The US has that many bombers globally but I doubt the US would keep 2 carriers off the coasts for several weeks doing nothing...

devil, we don't know wat the Pentagon dinks these days so it may seem comical to send about 40 subs, but since the subs aint doin much except going after whales to test new sonar systems and other detection systems, when and if China invades, the Pentagon will send a bunch of subs to sink the invaders.

Originally posted by deltaboy
devil, we don't know wat the Pentagon dinks these days so it may seem comical to send about 40 subs, but since the subs aint doin much except going after whales to test new sonar systems and other detection systems, when and if China invades, the Pentagon will send a bunch of subs to sink the invaders.

HA HA!
The sub fleet of the US does a bitmroe than "go after whales" who do you think patrols the worlds oceans?
The SSBN's alone are very rarely seen and barely ever heard....
Also do you know how big the pacific is?
Its the biggest ocean in the planet!

It would take a los angeles submarine 12.4 days to get there on full throttle all the way..

A sea wolf 11.4 days at full throttle, the same with a virgina class sub...

[edit on 26/02/2005 by devilwasp]

[edit on 26/02/2005 by devilwasp]

Originally posted by devilwasp

Originally posted by rogue1
You speak as though you think the Chinese are capable of launching a massive surprise invasion. This belief is completely false any buildup would be seen weeks in advance of any action allowing the US to position it's fleet with plenty of time. This is of course if they so chose to.

It is possible, are you going to say that if the chinese built up forces and left them there for say several months the US is going to keep 1/7th of its carrier fleet there?

It would take the Chinese ships several weeks to assemble and load in the ports. This would be picked up well in advance by all forms of US intelligence gathering. Don't forget they conduct over 100 reconnaissance flights a year off the Chinese coast ( the year of the EP-3 II incident the US had cinducted over 250 recon flights off the Chinese boarder.

It would be very expensive for the Chinese to leave their forces in assembling areas for several months and extremely bad military tactics ( they would be far too vulnerable to a repemptive strike).
The US could have carriers on station within a couple of days and submarines even sooner. Not to mention as FredT has stated the heavy bombers flying out of Guam heavily loaded with antiship ordnance.

Originally posted by rogue1
It would take the Chinese ships several weeks to assemble and load in the ports. This would be picked up well in advance by all forms of US intelligence gathering. Don't forget they conduct over 100 reconnaissance flights a year off the Chinese coast ( the year of the EP-3 II incident the US had cinducted over 250 recon flights off the Chinese boarder.

So its picked up, well done...can the US keep its troops at the level of effectiveness and authority for several weeks if need be?

It would be very expensive for the Chinese to leave their forces in assembling areas for several months and extremely bad military tactics ( they would be far too vulnerable to a repemptive strike).

If there was a premptive attack then they would have won....if the US attacks its the agressor and so would lose a hell of a lot of support it had in its own borders and abroad.....enough to make it think twice.

The US could have carriers on station within a couple of days and submarines even sooner. Not to mention as FredT has stated the heavy bombers flying out of Guam heavily loaded with antiship ordnance.

Try a week....almost 2
Heavy bombers dont sit on the runway with bombs as we speak waiting for some order to strike...that only happens during defcon 2 if I am correct that is the level the bomber are ethier airborne or waiting on the ground...


[edit on 26/02/2005 by devilwasp]

Originally posted by devilwasp

Originally posted by rogue1
It would take the Chinese ships several weeks to assemble and load in the ports. This would be picked up well in advance by all forms of US intelligence gathering. Don't forget they conduct over 100 reconnaissance flights a year off the Chinese coast ( the year of the EP-3 II incident the US had cinducted over 250 recon flights off the Chinese boarder.

So its picked up, well done...can the US keep its troops at the level of effectiveness and authority for several weeks if need be?

Yes, they sure can. Wherever a carrier cruises they are constantly conducting exercises ot make them ready for any possible action - these cruises last for months. ' Alpha Strikes ' ( those against maritime targets ) are regularly practiced on a cruise. The carriers would also carry enough ordnance to be able to take on the Chinese flotilla.
Besides any type of invasion would be preceded by politicking, which would probably lead to an increased general alert of the Pacific command. This would also lead to increased preparedness of the fleet for copmabt operations.

It would be very expensive for the Chinese to leave their forces in assembling areas for several months and extremely bad military tactics ( they would be far too vulnerable to a repemptive strike).

If there was a premptive attack then they would have won....if the US attacks its the agressor and so would lose a hell of a lot of support it had in its own borders and abroad.....enough to make it think twice.

It still doesn't change the fact that leaving your forces bunched up and vulnerable for your enemy to attack is very bad strategy, something which the military commanders wouldn't do.

The US could have carriers on station within a couple of days and submarines even sooner. Not to mention as FredT has stated the heavy bombers flying out of Guam heavily loaded with antiship ordnance.

Try a week....almost 2
Heavy bombers dont sit on the runway with bombs as we speak waiting for some order to strike...that only happens during defcon 2 if I am correct that is the level the bomber are ethier airborne or waiting on the ground...

A bomber can be armed within a couple of hours of the 'go' word several hours later they would be within range of the strait. Considering just one B-52 can carry 24-36 Harpoons, that is a massive amount of firepower that could be laid to bare on the Chinese fleet.
As I've said before any invasion of Taiwan would be precede by some type of diplomatic activity allowing the Pacific Air Forces to be put on alert, with several planes on quick reaction alert.

Just look at SAC in the 60's and 70's. The US Air Force has the ability and expertise to keep bombers at maximum readiness over extended periods of time.

As for submarines taking 2 weeks to arrive - where do you think they are ? Tied up to piers on the West Coast ?
Several SSN's are on patrol in the mid Pacific most of the time they could be near Taiwan very quickly. Another half dozen or so boats could sortie from Pearl Harbour.

Originally posted by rogue1
Yes, they sure can. Wherever a carrier cruises they are constantly conducting exercises ot make them ready for any possible action - these cruises last for months. ' Alpha Strikes ' ( those against maritime targets ) are regularly practiced on a cruise. The carriers would also carry enough ordnance to be able to take on the Chinese flotilla.
Besides any type of invasion would be preceded by politicking, which would probably lead to an increased general alert of the Pacific command. This would also lead to increased preparedness of the fleet for copmabt operations.

Yes it keeps them occupied BUT can can the US deal with permantly haveing 2 carriers never leaving taiwan?

It still doesn't change the fact that leaving your forces bunched up and vulnerable for your enemy to attack is very bad strategy, something which the military commanders wouldn't do.

Actualy they would, gambleing on the bet the US wouldnt be so stupid to attack the chinese homeland...

A bomber can be armed within a couple of hours of the 'go' word several hours later they would be within range of the strait. Considering just one B-52 can carry 24-36 Harpoons, that is a massive amount of firepower that could be laid to bare on the Chinese fleet.
As I've said before any invasion of Taiwan would be precede by some type of diplomatic activity allowing the Pacific Air Forces to be put on alert, with several planes on quick reaction alert.

Might I point out, in a few hours a B-52 can be smothered with the chinese airforce before it even gets to taiwan, also a couple of hours is a long time.

Just look at SAC in the 60's and 70's. The US Air Force has the ability and expertise to keep bombers at maximum readiness over extended periods of time.

Yeah they have the readyness to launch them from hundreds of miles away.

As for submarines taking 2 weeks to arrive - where do you think they are ? Tied up to piers on the West Coast ?

Most of them are in the atlantic.. so would take longer, I was counting the american forces on the western coast, I wasnt takeing into account them sailing from other parts of the world like off the african coast...

[qutoe]
Several SSN's are on patrol in the mid Pacific most of the time they could be near Taiwan very quickly. Another half dozen or so boats could sortie from Pearl Harbour.
They could be in taiwan if they sped away at top speed and loud as hell through the ocean in about 6 days...ish..
Another half a dozen will take days to get someone to sortie , which I doubt they would do, they would probably just all head to taiwan those takeing longer...