Can China Invade Taiwan?

Originally posted by WestPoint23
Anyway you slice the pie the Chinese cannot invade Taiwan as long as the USN is there its simply wont happen our carriers, subs, jets will probably destroy any force trying to cross the strait into Taiwan. Sure china will be able to launch a whole lot of missiles into Taiwan but they will not be able to bomb it with aircraft nor invade it.

Anyway you slice the pie if the US doesnt have the peices there , the invasion will happen and bye bye goes taiwan and it now becomes an independant country..

Originally posted by devilwasp

Gawd, so your assuming that the Chinese would have complete control over Taiwans airspace and several hundred miles beyond, instantaneously. LMAO about that one - I think you're being completely unrealistic.

Lets see, the PLAAF and PLAN have several hundred fighrers stationed just on the south side of china....One F-14 aint going to be able to waste 20 Mig29's or J-8's...
And do you think a B-2 can be flown over the pacifc or from SK in a few minutes?

You're still basing your opinion on the fact that the PLA can somehow launch an overwhelming invasion of Taiwan at a a moments notice. You also souns as though you think that the PLAN can put the force across the strait in 30 mins or so.

I am talking about the submarines on patrol in the Pacific and based in Peral Harbour. The US hardly needs to assemble even a sizable fraction of the SSN force to confront the Chinese. A force of 5 SSN's in conjunction with airpower would be more than enough to stop the PLAN.

What airforce though?
You act like the US navy already has 2 carriers off the coast....if it did that would be another question but come on....5 subs alone cant do much...

/sigh/ Do you even read the posts. What airforce ? How about the several wings of bombers which could be deployed at Guam. They could be within range of stadoff weapon in a few hours. 12 B-52 can carry 300+ Harpoon missiles. Just one example of he wieght of metal they could bring to bare on the PLAN fleet.

So what if they're loud, the PLAN hardly has bluewater assets capable of tracking them.

They have a brown water navy....thats not exactly long range but its mid range...you sound like the PLAN has no ASW weapons in its invetory...

A brown water navy isn't even midrange in capability, they are completely outclassed by the US Navy.
The PLA anti-sub capablilty is absolutley crap. Everyone talks about the Soverremy and it's anti sub capablilities, but anyone who knows Russian/Soviet technology knows that their sonar systems are several generations behind what the US Navy uses
So in essence the US NAvy would hvae nothing to fear from Chinese ASW.

[edit on 30-3-2005 by rogue1]

Originally posted by rogue1
You're still basing your opinion on the fact that the PLA can somehow launch an overwhelming invasion of Taiwan at a a moments notice. You also souns as though you think that the PLAN can put the force across the strait in 30 mins or so.

If high enough level theycan get fighters airborne in time...besides...If the fleet wasnt there taiwan wouldnt make it...

/sigh/ Do you even read the posts. What airforce ? How about the several wings of bombers which could be deployed at Guam. They could be within range of stadoff weapon in a few hours. 12 B-52 can carry 300+ Harpoon missiles. Just one example of he wieght of metal they could bring to bare on the PLAN fleet.

Yes I relise...Come on 12 B-52's can get shotdown in the stretch...as was stated by another poster most of chinas anit-stealth radar facilities are based there...

A brown water navy isn't even midrange in capability, they are completely outclassed by the US Navy.
The PLA anti-sub capablilty is absolutley crap. Everyone talks about the Soverremy and it's anti sub capablilities, but anyone who knows Russian/Soviet technology knows that their sonar systems are several generations behind what the US Navy uses
So in essence the US NAvy would hvae nothing to fear from Chinese ASW.
[edit on 30-3-2005 by rogue1]

Wait you seriosly think that china poses no ASW threat?
Come on do you really think chinese sonar cant hear a los angeles sub tearin through the pacific at 20 knots?

Devil again you seem to think that we have our subs at port, Like I said before the Pentagon is not stupid they know the situation is getting more serious every day our subs where are they are no the pacific ocean are probably in rage of Taiwan, just in case.

And like I said before our fighters in Guam S.K. and Japan, could be scrambled to meet any invasion force head on until our carriers get there.

And Devil so what if they hear them what are they going to do about it. Their subs wont stand a chance against our attack subs.

[edit on 30-3-2005 by WestPoint23]

westpoint brings up an interesting point about the USAF based in South Korea. This would add another dimension to the theater of operations. IF US planes are staging out of South Korea then this would make those bases fair game for Chinses missile attacks. It could be possible they may even coax NK into attacking the South. I wonder as well if the SK governament may request that their home soil not be used in a China, Taiwan, US conflict.
Does anyone have any information on the position of the SK government in the event there is a conflict over Taiwan ?

I doubt that the SK government would allow planes to be used from thier terrirtory. China may give old crazy Kim the go ahead to invade the South so I expect them to play Switzerland in this scenario.

Devil, the USN no doubt has a few SSN's on station. Other subs, even those based at Guam would have to tear it up to close the distance, however, how far exactly do you expect the PLAN to range its ASW forces? I doubt they will stray to far from the earstwile invasion fleet alowwing them to get pretty close till they had to slow down.

Also, you guys are making it sound like the PLAN is going to be sending the second comming of the Spanish Armada. Not nearly as much and 2-3 SSN's could put a hell of a dent in that force. Also, its kind of hard to hide such a large scale amphibious invasion so you may get a bit of a warning as well.

Originally posted by FredT

Also, you guys are making it sound like the PLAN is going to be sending the second comming of the Spanish Armada. Not nearly as much and 2-3 SSN's could put a hell of a dent in that force. Also, its kind of hard to hide such a large scale amphibious invasion so you may get a bit of a warning as well.

Hallelujah, finally a sane and logical voice I agree whole heartedly with the above statement.

Also the Mk48 torp equipping SSN's is a brilliant weapon capable of almost 1 shot 100% lethality against all but the heaviest ships. Of course they have to get within range, but once there it would be a fleet killing weapon.

[edit on 31-3-2005 by rogue1]

What exactly are thier ASW forces? I looked at GlobalSecurity (My Janes "All the worlds fighting ships" is 7 years old now) and the PLAN has

24 Destroyers of various types (some are pretty old)
45 Frigates of various types (same as above)
46 subs (6 SSN's rest diesel/electric 4 of the kilo class)

Now unless your going to tell me that they are going to commit thier entire surface strike fleet to this op (leaving thier coasts) unprotected except by air. How much ASW will they really be doing?

However Im not sure at all of thier airborn assets ie. P-3's or Nimrod type aircraft which could influence things as well.

I see Chinese fighter planes flying over head my school all the time. I think they are getting ready to invade this summer.

They can, and they will.

Originally posted by WestPoint23
Devil again you seem to think that we have our subs at port, Like I said before the Pentagon is not stupid they know the situation is getting more serious every day our subs where are they are no the pacific ocean are probably in rage of Taiwan, just in case.

They will only have a few subs in range of taiwan...its of little tactical use to them....the US subs have to patrol worldwide....if the US left the pacific with no subs and all of them stayed around taiwan that would leave a major area of sea not under US control or influence.

And like I said before our fighters in Guam S.K. and Japan, could be scrambled to meet any invasion force head on until our carriers get there.

A few wings cant stop an invasion force of that size....well I might be wrong....look at battle of britain but its highly unlikely..

And Devil so what if they hear them what are they going to do about it. Their subs wont stand a chance against our attack subs.
[edit on 30-3-2005 by WestPoint23]

Ah to be so trusting in the mighty tech advantage....
If my understanding of sonar is right doesnt the higher the speed reduce the effectiveness?
Anyway...who needs subs when you have aircraft to do it or surface ships all together they could nail a few expensive ships...enough to make the US think twice about sending large numbers down...

Originally posted by FredT
Also, you guys are making it sound like the PLAN is going to be sending the second comming of the Spanish Armada. Not nearly as much and 2-3 SSN's could put a hell of a dent in that force. Also, its kind of hard to hide such a large scale amphibious invasion so you may get a bit of a warning as well.

Hey, my history is hazy but didn't the Spanish Armada get annilated??

Using that comparison is kind of ironic.

Originally posted by FredT
Also, you guys are making it sound like the PLAN is going to be sending the second comming of the Spanish Armada. Not nearly as much and 2-3 SSN's could put a hell of a dent in that force. Also, its kind of hard to hide such a large scale amphibious invasion so you may get a bit of a warning as well.

...We are expecting the RN to form the two line strategy again and suddenly have the lead ship called "victory"... he he

[edit on 26/02/2005 by devilwasp]

A new article...

WARPLANES: Chinese Air Blitzkrieg Against Taiwan


March 31, 2005: China is apparently planning an “out-of-the-blue” (OOTB) attack on Taiwan, that will initially consist mainly of missiles and warplanes. What this means is that, during what appears to be peacetime maneuvers, the troops involved will suddenly move against a nearby nation and invade. This tactic was developed by Russia during the Cold War, but never used. They prepared for it by holding large scale training exercises twice a year, near the border with West Germany. The Russian troops were all ready to practice, or go to war. An OOTB attack could be ordered by having the troops to cross the border and attack NATO forces, who would have insufficient warning to deal with the sudden offensive. NATO finally caught on to this plan, and put the troops on alert during the Russian field exercises. The OOTB was most noticeably used, and successfully at that, when the Russian trained Egyptian army surprised the Israelis and recaptured the Suez canal in 1973.

If everyone is on to OOTB attacks, how does China expect to get away with it? Especially when it would involve an amphibious operation involving at least ten hours time at sea for the ships of the amphibious force. The exact details are kept secret, but the plan involves using over 600 ballistic missiles, and several hundred warplanes, which China has stationed within range of Taiwan. Within an hour, the missiles could hit Taiwanese anti-aircraft missile launchers, radars, airbases, ships in harbor and army barracks and combat vehicles. Launch the attack in the pre-dawn hours, and you catch most of the troops in their barracks, and the ships, warplanes and tanks lined up and vulnerable. Amphibious troops would already be on their ships, for an amphibious exercises, escorted by numerous warships. As the amphibious fleet headed for Taiwan, hundreds of Chinese warplanes would return to hit whatever targets had been missed.

Taiwanese commanders have responded with plans to keep warships at sea and some aircraft in the air at all times during Chinese exercises. Even 900 ballistic missiles, which the Chinese will have in place during the next few years, would not be sufficient to shut down the Taiwanese armed forces. But if the missiles, and air strikes soon thereafter, could do enough damage to prevent the first wave of amphibious ships from getting hit bad, Taiwan would be in big trouble. In fact, if the Chinese could get control of the air over Taiwan for a day or so, three Chinese airborne divisions could be dropped on Taiwan as well.

Taiwan has always expected assistance from the U.S. Navy and Air Force. But without advance warning to get a carrier or two into the area, and a few hundred U.S. Air Force planes alerted for movement to Taiwan, Japan and Guam, the American assistance would be too late. Thus, for Taiwan, an OOTB attack, which the Chinese appear to be preparing to carry out, is something to worry about.

wouldnt be somethin if The US secretly put a Nuke in Taiwan and let Taiwan launch it if china attacks, probably wouldnt be a good thing, i dont know about a suprise attack, China would have to build up and any build up i bet is being watched very carefully

Taiwan has no offensive missiles, only defensive ones and any plane trying to cross the strait would be shot down immaediatly and seen as an act of independance and war.

Taiwan will have plenty of tomahawk missile supporting them if the US decided to help them. And Air battle between the U.S. jets and the Chinese jets will be a turkey shoot in my opinion.

And devil you speak as f the U.S. has a couple of subs and we cant patrol the Atlantic and pacific without send a few subs near Taiwan.

Originally posted by WestPoint23
And devil you speak as f the U.S. has a couple of subs and we cant patrol the Atlantic and pacific without send a few subs near Taiwan.

I speak of what you suggest is like a whole task force of subs, or more of what rogue said but whatever...
What I mean is the US wont be able to send a large number there and a small number wont win the war...you follow?
BTW...u ever going to U2U me back?
Forget that bit, I got the U2U right after I posted....freaky....westy your not watching me are you?

[edit on 26/02/2005 by devilwasp]

Taiwan has mid-range ballistic missles and Taiwan is cranking up production on cruise missles ,right now.

[edit on 3/31/2005 by bodebliss]

The cruise missles they are making are not as techno as the US ,but they don't need to use precision hitting stratagems. They should just send them to Bejing addressee unknown. Hopefully nuke-tipped.

Did I say kill all the blood thirsty chinee bandits.

Because bandits is what started the chinese communist party.

A band of chinese bandits sorta dressing up as politicos to give their form of robbery legitimacy.

Fooled everyone they did!



[edit on 3/31/2005 by bodebliss]

BTW...u ever going to U2U me back?
Forget that bit, I got the U2U right after I posted....freaky....westy your not watching me are you?

Well just like the role I requested, I‘m lurking in the shadows observing

Also devil how many subs in your opinion do we need to stop the Chinese from invading?