Can China Invade Taiwan?

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
Let me ask this question.

What other justification could the U.S. have besides Taiwan that could justify a war against China?

possible war over Korea. China did fought America over that.

Originally posted by twchang
440,000 is the population of the mountain region aboriginals. As someone metion earlier though, we are mainly talking about the plain aboriginals here.

Are you sure?. It doesn't say which ones

In any case, as someone mentioned earlier, this process happens over long period of time.

The 6million figure is for 1949. In 1893 the population of taiwan was 2.54 million(including aboriginals)

Only during the japanese occupation did you see a a massive increase in population(130%)

And yea, not all aboriginal accept the new cultures. Some plain aboriginals were forced to immigrate toward north and east of Taiwan where there were less new comers. But some choose to stay.

Well If 10% of aboriginals did accept the new culture(already very generous) they how can you claim most "taiwnese" have aboriginal blood?

I am not sure if you can calculate it like that...if half of my 16 grand-grand-grand parents are aboriginals then I am half aboriginal.

If can never be half. the ratio of chinese vs aborginal's were to great.


This was also the situation in australia, where the aboriginals breed with the whites.

In these cases the white colour gene is dominant

some Taiwanese looks more like aboriginal, some looks more like Chinese, but it doesn't really matter.

If you have a picture of a taiwanese that looks more aboriginal please post it.

I have never seen one with more aboriginal blood

____________________________________________________________


All this claiming that taiwanese people are a new culture , have their own language or look different is absurd. You "taiwanese" haven't present anything that even remotely comes close to it

The only real population growth was only in the last 100 years. 47years of seperation.(not even that) doesn't give you guys that right to claim a new culture.

Even during the years of the cultural revolution there were still cross-strait contact through hong kong and Macau. Currently there are 1million permanent "taiwanese" buiness men/women living on the mainland. You guys call them traditors we call them Patriots.

They choose the PRC with a dictorship, brutal regime and Human rights abuses everywhere(according to AI and bodebliss) over taiwan which is a paradise. I wonder if taiwan is really that good after all?

3.7million visits by taiwanese residents . about 1/6 of the population every year. And you guys think that each side of the strait have no contact.

Taiwan is dependent on the mainland for its present and future economic survial.



Anyway This topic is if china can invade taiwan.

The answer is yes

[edit on 21-9-2005 by chinawhite]

Ok. lets get figures for forces on both sides.

here is a map


THE PRC

Total Military Force
Possible first wave : 60,000:Shipborne (this figure includes possible marchant ships)

One airborne divison and 4800 on helicopters.

In all a possible 74,800 troops

Navy:

Destroyers
2x 52C class
2x 52B class
2x Sovremenny class
1x 51B class
2x 52 class
2-6 Luda class

Submarines
2-4 Kilos
6x Song class
10x Ming/Romeo class

And possible Han class nuclear submarine

Air Force

J-10 , at least 10 by 2003. started low level production in 2003. Already working on a twin engined version.

J-11- numbering 90-100. china is starting to upgrade them now. J-11B.etc

Su-27sk and UBK. 76 aircraft

Su-30mkk. 76 aircraft

Su-30mkk2. 24.

286 4th generation fighters

China has a large number of 3.5 generation fighters. upgraded J-7s and J-8IIs

Over 1000 of these are in service


ROC


Army: the ROC army numbers 200,000. but this number is misleading because it does not include the troops that are stationed on the outer islands. On some ocasion this can equal half of the whole taiwanese force.

i provided a map showing the three outer island


Navy

Submarines
2x Hai Shih-class
2x Zwaardvis class

Destroyers
7 WW2 Gearing class destroyers which have recieve a re0fit some time ago



Air Force

146 F-16 block 20s which have been upgraded to the MLU standard

57 Mirage 2000

128 IDF This is a type of F-16 light. this is a formiable indegenious taiwanese fighter

90+ F-5 old F-5s which have had upgrades

____________________________________________________________



My conclusion.

The PRC has the nessary military force to overrun the ROC military but needs to modernize more to be able to make a possible US intervention to costly without resorting to nuclear weapons.

*All my estimates are based on real numbers but these numbers are all possible

Sources/Links
www.sinodefence.com
www.globalsecurity.org
www.fas.org

EDIT: spelling mistake and picture trouble

[edit on 21-9-2005 by chinawhite]

china has nukes if they launch , we launch.

Originally posted by bodebliss
china has nukes if they launch , we launch.

You're just hoping they do that.

So where are those reasons?

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
Let me ask this question.

What other justification could the U.S. have besides Taiwan that could justify a war against China?

Because those evil communists are trying to take over the World? No.
Because those evil communists have WMD? Already been used.
Because those evil communists house terrorists? Already been used.
Because those evil Communists are taking all our oil? Let's just hope G.W. ain't reading this...

The pan blue legislators blocks the arm bill for the 29th times.

I think eventually it might pass, due to pressure from Taiwanese government, people and the US. But even if it passes now, it will be very "stinky." I can already imagin those pan blue politicians use this incidents to smear the image of pan green even after they pass the bill.

I think a lot of faults fall into the Taiwanese people and politician.

But many people outside Taiwan might not know. When KMT was in power, and purchases Lafayette Frigates from France, there were a lot of scandals:
1. The Minister of Defense originally plans to buy frigates made by South Korea but suddenly change the decision, with no apparent reason.
2. There were bribery of Taiwanese, French and even Chinese officials going on. And a Taiwanese Naval officer was murdered as a result of cover ups.
3. The Lafayette Frigates' air defense system was significantly downgraded when they are sold to Taiwan. And they are extremely over priced. Air Defense system upgrade is now set in motion though. The ships will be fitted with domestically made Sky Sword missiles.

So no wonder people can find reasons to oppose foreign military purchases even when it is unreasonable. Even though that scandle didn't involve the Pan Green and the US, some people just got the impressions and no details. The military also losses some credibility in that incident.

Therefore it is easier for KMT (how ironic) to block the purchase even when they don't have much reasons at all.

But I think it is in US interests to also change the policies a bit. I can make 2 suggestions:

1. Try to sell the best systems without threatening US securities. (The weapons sell is limited by Taiwanese Relation Act (no offensive weapon, cannot sell weapons that give Taiwan clear advantage), but maybe it is reasonable to modified the act now to suit the new situation)
2. Emphasize that Taiwan needs to have the will to defend itself. The US cannot help Taiwan even if it tries if Taiwanese doesn't have the will. (This is the truth anyway.)


[edit on 22-9-2005 by twchang]

An Indonesian warship opened fire on a Chinese fishing fleet it suspected of using illegal nets, killing one crew member and wounding two others, an Indonesian navy spokesman said.
The four Chinese fishing boats did not respond to radio and visual signals from the warship and tried to flee after warning shots were fired on Monday in the Arafuru Sea off Papua Island, Toni Syaiful from Indonesia's eastern fleet said.

The warship then fired several rounds from its 20mm gun at the largest vessel in the fleet, Syaiful said.

"We were upholding the law and we responded in line with procedures," he told el-Shinta radio. "The nets the vessels were using were illegal."

The dead crewman and his two injured colleagues were all Chinese citizens, he said.

Chinese diplomats condemned the shooting.

"We are shocked to know that our citizen was killed and others were wounded," Xie Yong Hui, a Chinese embassy spokesman in Jakarta, said, his voice shaking with anger.

"We sent a strong note of disappointment to the Indonesian government and the navy," he said.

The damaged ship was towed to the nearest port of Meurake on Papua Island.

The three other fishing vessels escaped from the scene and Indonesian naval vessels in the area searched for them, Syaiful said.

The fire-on vessel was one of four Chinese-flagged ships accused of fishing without proper permits in the eastern Indonesian territory by the warship KRI Dalpele while it was patrolling on Monday.

"Everything was illegal," navy spokesman and First Admiral Malik Yusuf said. "They had no proper permit."

"Even their passports were expired," Yusuf said.

www.taipeitimes.com...

The chinese lose another one.












[edit on 9/22/2005 by bodebliss]

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
Let me ask this question.

What other justification could the U.S. have besides Taiwan that could justify a war against China?

That China not only threatens Taiwan, but other countries in the region. If the United States doesn't help one of the regions most vibrant democracies, the credibility of the United States in this region of the world will be about shot and countries that have been friendly toward the U.S. (most of the democracies, even to some extent Islamic Indonesia) will be rushing to make whatever deal they can with the Communist aggressors in China. If you think THAT is good for American interests, you have a serious case of "head stuck in sand" syndrome.

China threatened South Korea with the reinstating of a China led puppet government from hundreds of years ago.

China is a loser regime.

They keep trying to sneak around the pacific, but we have a new radar satelite that makes cloud cover and water invisible.

It is common knowledge that the CCP is unloved by the Chinese and that communism is evil. Fearful, hypocritical and lacking confidence, the CCP behaves like a coward walking through a graveyard, shouting nationalist slogans about its growing military strength and attacking Taiwan to muster some courage, while last year alone, it had to face almost 70,000 public demonstrations and protests -- almost 200 per day. This gives some measure of the public's dissatisfaction with the CCP.

www.taipeitimes.com...

It is a funny, no?

Yes!

What do you plan to do about the Chinese problem, bode?

Originally posted by bodebliss

It is common knowledge that the CCP is unloved by the Chinese and that communism is evil. Fearful, hypocritical and lacking confidence, the CCP behaves like a coward walking through a graveyard, shouting nationalist slogans about its growing military strength and attacking Taiwan to muster some courage, while last year alone, it had to face almost 70,000 public demonstrations and protests -- almost 200 per day. This gives some measure of the public's dissatisfaction with the CCP.

www.taipeitimes.com...

It is a funny, no?

Yes!

I guess America must also have a failed Government due to the amount of protests?
The United Kingdom?
Japan?
Australia? etc, etc...

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
What do you plan to do about the Chinese problem, bode?

Oh I try to do something everyday about this and that.

I am involved, not just here at ATS.

It would have no meaning to those who ONLY post ATS and say "THERE! There's my commitment!"

Have a G D Day!

Originally posted by bodebliss

Oh I try to do something everyday about this and that.

I am involved, not just here at ATS.

It would have no meaning to those who ONLY post ATS and say "THERE! There's my commitment!"

Have a G

D Day!

What do you SPECIFICALLY plan to do about the Chinese problem, bode?

I do something everyday

Not only here on ATS, but I am involved elsewhere as well.

This would be private though.

Originally posted by twchang

Originally posted by Odium
But instead of saying "No we are Taiwanese" why not actually educate the people with the truth?

Again both cases are telling a lie.

Why is "we are Taiwanese" a lie? If you live in Taiwan, you can call yourself Taiwanese right? That is the same as if you live in Canada, then you can call yourself Canadian. What is wrong with that?

Well the problem is that the status of the country is still in dispute, so the nationality of the people of the country is also in dispute. Taiwan may have its own government, but the country still does not have official recognition as a country. It is not officially recognised as territory of China either.

So as for the people living on the island, it is both a lie to call them Taiwanese or Chinese.

Originally posted by bodebliss
I do something everyday

Not only here on ATS, but I am involved elsewhere as well.

This would be private though.

What, kill random Chinese people?

And is your beef with China due to it's rise as a potential world power or simply because you think China should have an American-style government?

Originally posted by Taishyou
So as for the people living on the island, it is both a lie to call them Taiwanese or Chinese.

Hehe...so what do you propose calling them?

Islanders? Formosan? GGMan? Xpeople?

To tell the truth, I don't care. As long as it is popularly recognize so people know what you are talking about.

That is why Taiwanese is ok I think because it makes some sense. People on Taiwan == Taiwanese. Simpler to remember that way too.


[edit on 24-9-2005 by twchang]

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo

Originally posted by bodebliss
I do something everyday

Not only here on ATS, but I am involved elsewhere as well.

This would be private though.

What, kill random Chinese people?

And is your beef with China due to it's rise as a potential world power or simply because you think China should have an American-style government?

There is no chinese government. It is a small band (by chinese standards) of thugs and thieves outside the reach of the laws of humanity and their own country. They are a dangerous evil.