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The 'Up to the Minute' Live Tropical Storm Bonnie and Oil Spill Thread

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posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 07:02 PM
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reply to post by crazydaisy
 


It is hard for me to distinguish the difference between the Federal Government's point man Thad Allen, and BP. We say no, they say yes. Over and over again. They say small, we see big. A big circle of poor information distribution.

There has been made, and proven, a lot of good points through constant observations over at The "Up to the Minute" BP Livefeed Discussion Thread, especially in regards to the duplicity that is occurring, BUT, I really don't trust the point of the article you posted that the riser is not leaking, nor that it is going to be ok.

I do not think the storm will actually have any affect on the riser, being that it is that far below. But I sure as heck am not comfortable with the idea of the riser being all alone for days on end because of the sea-based evacuations that are happening due to the storm, because I do not trust the riser, and I do not trust BPThadAllen.




posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 07:18 PM
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1) It is tropical storm Bonnie. It is not a hurricane.
2) It is not forecast to reach hurricane intensity.
3) At this time there is a predicted 10-20% chance that the area of the spill will experience 50 knot winds.
4) At this time there is a predicted 5-10% chance that the shoreline areas near the spill will experience 50 knot winds.


A transducer is a device which transmits and receives sound waves. It is used by depth finders. They often have a thermometer attached to them.

[edit on 7/22/2010 by Phage]



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 07:22 PM
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reply to post by Phage
 


Where is that switch for H.A.A.R.P. again....?

OH THEEEERE IT IS .......



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 07:26 PM
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reply to post by Phage
 


According to the National Hurricane Center, it is projected to make landfall Sunday afternoon. With its position now, and expected landfall Sunday, it has to be moving at a fairly brisk pace for a tropical storm, and picking up speed. Hopefully the fact that it will be quickly passing over the affected oil spill area also helps to reduce the affects that it could possibly have.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 07:41 PM
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Originally posted by Phage
1) It is tropical storm Bonnie. It is not a hurricane.
2) It is not forecast to reach hurricane intensity.
3) At this time there is a predicted 10-20% chance that the area of the spill will experience 50 knot winds.
4) At this time there is a predicted 5-10% chance that the shoreline areas near the spill will experience 50 knot winds.


A transducer is a device which transmits and receives sound waves. It is used by depth finders. They often have a thermometer attached to them.

[edit on 7/22/2010 by Phage]


It also wasn't forecast to become a tropical storm for 48+ hours...they said that last night.



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 07:44 PM
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reply to post by lasertaglover
 

TS Bonnie is moving northwest at speed of 12 knots. It is forecast to turn to the west-northwest and increase its forward speed. Maximum windspeeds are forecast at 45 knots.
www.nhc.noaa.gov...



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 07:58 PM
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The whole idea of this thread is for up to the minute honest reporting of Tropical Storm Bonnie. When this thread was made, it was unknown if she would become a hurricane or not, but thought that it might by some. In keeping with the awesome, honest posting on here by everyone, I wanted to keep this thread honest as well, and very politely asked the terrific Mod's to change the title of this thread to reflect the real storm.

So thank you Mod's for letting me stay truthful, and thanks to everyone for posting on here.

Even though she is scheduled to make landfall Sunday, I think this thread will be useful for a while even beyond that date. I imagine that there will be a lot of news coming in regarding the affects of the storm, and/or the affects of the oil combined with the storm.

From the AP: Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said he expects local leaders in coastal parishes to call for evacuation of low-lying areas as early as Friday morning.



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 08:00 PM
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reply to post by DragonFire1024
 

The trough was given a 40% chance of becoming a storm within 48 hours. That does not mean the same thing as saying it would not become a storm for "48+ hours". It means it may become a storm in 48 hour or less. It did.


NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.







[edit on 7/22/2010 by Phage]



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 08:04 PM
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Sat Photo of Katrina right before she crossed tip of Florida in 2005...
www.ncdc.noaa.gov...


Chart of Katrina's path prior to landfall...

www.ncdc.noaa.gov...


"Hurricane Katrina developed initially as a tropical depression (TD #12 of the season) in the southeastern Bahamas on August 23rd. This tropical depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Katrina the next day. It then moved slowly along a northwesterly then westerly track through the Bahamas, increasing in strength during this time. A few hours before landfall in south Florida at around 6.30 EDT on August 25th, Katrina strengthened to become a category 1 (windspeeds of 75mph or greater) hurricane. Landfall occurred between Hallandale Beach and North Miami Beach, Florida, with windspeeds of approximately 80 mph (70 kts). Gusts of above 90 mph (78 kts) were measured as Katrina came ashore. As the storm moved southwest across the tip of the Florida peninsula, Katrina's winds decreased slightly before regaining hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico. Given that Katrina spent only seven hours over land, its strength was not significantly diminished and it quickly re-intensified shortly after moving over the warm waters of the Gulf"

***From "NHC" site


Sound's very similar to this one, yet later in the season, by over a month...



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 08:09 PM
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The NOAA Storm tracker Home Page has some good links to satellite photos and time lapse videos of the Atlantic basin and Tropical Storm Bonnie. I'll post it here, and on the front page for reference.

www.stormtracker.noaa.gov...

[edit on 22-7-2010 by lasertaglover]



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 08:19 PM
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reply to post by freetree64
 


Very simliar, except for the speed at which it is going to pass through the Gulf. Katrina had much more time to develop, while Tropical Storm Bonnie will more than likely remain a Tropical Storm, at least according to the National Hurricane Center.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

With the horror of the oil spill in the Gulf, I think it is a very good thing that this storm will not strengthen. With close monitoring, we should be able to learn a great deal about the consequences of this fusion of tropical energy and oil. And hopefully it will not push too much oil ashore. Even though it is going to be a weaker storm overall, its final size overall as a storm can have an impact on the amount of storm surge. And we definitely do not need an oily surge there, or in the Keys and South-Eastern Florida as it passes.



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 08:34 PM
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reply to post by freetree64
 

Yes.

And from the time Katrina was named, it was forecast to increase in strength.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
2100Z TUE AUG 23 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL WARNING STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.



11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...



11 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


Katrina behaved pretty much as it was forecast to. The conditions now are different than when Katrina occurred and so is the forecast.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 08:38 PM
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reply to post by lasertaglover
 


Don't worry about your spelling. I live on the west coast of florida and I appreciate all of this information you've posted. It must have taken you a long time to find all of those links.

Thank you for all your hard work.



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 08:40 PM
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reply to post by Phage
 


Understood, it was merely for comparison purposes, obviously the wind shear is different and the relative sea surface temps may vary, as well as the forecast models. Just don't like the looks of this one on NHC's water vapor loop, got a little itch in the back of my head, on this one is all.... Thanks

*** Plus, a brother and his family south of Baton Rouge....

[edit on 22-7-2010 by freetree64]



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 08:49 PM
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reply to post by freetree64
 


And I understand you. I have family in Panama City, Florida, so I always keep a close eye on the Gulf. They are getting on in age, and don't need anything to complicate it even more.



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 08:53 PM
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reply to post by lasertaglover
 


Yeah, I hear ya, even if it turns out to be nothing, that'd be best for all, and nothing good on the idiot box anyway, so might as well keep an eye on "Bonnie" eh....



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 09:04 PM
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reply to post by lasertaglover
 


it is never certain that this is going to to a Hurricane so you can't "call it like it is"....even the National Hurricane Center, the experts, do not anticipate this to be a Hurricane at this time....they have it making landfall in LA as a Tropical Storm

[edit on 22-7-2010 by Goradd]



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 09:25 PM
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This is what I was refering to.... notice the pattern??? Just look's like it could supersize, regardless of all the meteorlogical dynamics...






www.goes.noaa.gov...



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 10:16 PM
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I'm in Miami and I don't expect anything but some rain. We'll see how it goes. My fiance's supposed to come to town tomorrow night. Hopefully she can...

[edit on 7/22/2010 by acegotflows]



posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 11:56 PM
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I'm near the louisiana gulf coast and went stock up on supplies tonight. So far we expect to be hit by a tropical storm on sunday late afternoon. The sooner it comes, the better. If for any reason it hits the gulf and slows down, we are toast. But we are prepared to evacuate if we need to. Our biggest concern right now, is how far up that oil will be pushed. Our marshes are dying, and the oil will get thrown further into other marshes and they will die too. Our marshes are our shield, without them, we may see the surge hit areas that usually are in the clear, like my house. After Katrina/Rita, my home was fine, but it was total devastation only 2-3 miles south of my house. Now, who knows how close it will be next time we have a big enough storm.



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