The 'Up to the Minute' Live Tropical Storm Bonnie and Oil Spill Thread

This article below is rather long, but I felt it had a good MSM summary of everything going on in the coast.

From Reuters:

www.reuters.com...

Factbox: Developments in the Gulf of Mexico oil spill

HOUSTON | Fri Jul 23, 2010 7:30am EDT

FACTBOX-Developments in the Gulf of Mexico oil spill
Interactive graphicReuters hurricane trackerHOUSTON | Fri Jul 23, 2010 7:30am EDT

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Here are some developments in BP Plc's Gulf of Mexico oil spill, the largest offshore oil disaster in U.S. history.

TOP DEVELOPMENTS

* BP Plc oil spill workers in the Gulf of Mexico prepared for a possible evacuation on Thursday as a brewing tropical storm threatened more delays in attempts to end the environmental disaster.

* Choppy seas from a tropical depression near the Bahamas prompted oil-skimming vessels in the Gulf of Mexico to come ashore Thursday, but BP Plc had not suspended major operations at the site of its massive oil spill.

MARKET IMPACT/COMPANIES

* Two of the world's top five oil rig contractors, Diamond and Ensco, are gearing up to buy more rigs as many seem even more likely to be sold due to the regulatory backlash over the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster.

* The lucrative tourism industry in the Gulf of Mexico could suffer for up to three years with $22.7 billion in lost revenue because of the largest oil spill in U.S. history, a travel group said on Thursday.

* An e-mail scam featuring someone purporting to be BP Plc's Chief Executive Tony Hayward is targeting victims of the company's massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill, Florida's attorney general said on Thursday.

* The two oil companies that are BP's partners in the now-capped oil well told Congress on Thursday they will not set aside money for cleanup costs along the Gulf Coast because it is BP's responsibility.

* BP will give an estimate for the total cost of its Gulf of Mexico oil spill next Tuesday when it unveils second-quarter profits that, were it not for the spill, would likely have risen 77 percent to $5 billion.

* Fitch Ratings says the announcement of BP's asset sales to Apache Corp is a positive development and will support BP's liquidity position.

* Big oil companies including Exxon Mobil Corp and Royal Dutch Shell will spend $1 billion to develop a new oil spill containment system for the Gulf of Mexico, the companies said on Wednesday.

* New York and Ohio have asked a federal judge to appoint them lead plaintiffs to handle shareholder class-action lawsuits against BP Plc over the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

* Indian state-run explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp wants to buy BP's stake in an offshore Vietnam gas field, as Hanoi stressed BP must give priority to its partners in the sale of its energy assets.

* BP said it had spent $3.95 billion so far on efforts to tackle its leaking oil well and that it aims to permanently kill the well in the first half of August.

* BP shares closed up .03 percent in London while shares in New York closed up .28 percent on Thursday.

POLITICS/POLICY

* Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said on Thursday he will unveil an energy bill next week that will implement offshore drilling reforms.

* A U.S. judge on Wednesday refused a request by environmental groups to reinstate the Obama administration's original moratorium on deepwater drilling enacted in the wake of the BP Plc oil spill.

* Scotland's most senior politician said on Wednesday there was no conspiracy in his country's decision to release the Lockerbie bomber, following U.S. questions over oil company BP's influence on the process.

CAPTURE/CONTAINMENT/CLEANUP

* Even if a storm causes an evacuation of the well site, the government will allow the well to remain sealed while the storm passes over, the government's oil spill point man said.

* The U.S. government gave BP permission to prepare to help plug its Gulf of Mexico oil leak with a "static kill," which would inject heavy mud and cement into the well to seal it, a BP executive said. [nWEN7581]

SPECIAL REPORTS

* It is a Thursday morning in early July and Thad Allen is ready to start his day. There are three states to visit, an oil company to challenge, and a cleanup process to inspect -- all in less than 12 hours.

(Compiled by Alyson Zepeda in Houston; editing by David Storey and Todd Eastham)

Most forecast models take Bonnie directly over the Gulf spill site...not a good sign.

reply to post by DragonFire1024


www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Indeed. The trajectory of Bonnie could not be worse, but thankfully she is not predicted to get over 50 mph winds. Again, hopefully she helps to break up the oil, but there is a lot of buzz on the MSM about Bonnie pushing oil inland as a result of storm surge.

I am worried about two things:

1) The riser being left unattended for several days (the what if's are endless)

2) Bonnie soaking up any oil, or pushing any oil inland

That's why I hope people on here can keep posting as much current information as possible. Even though it is hard sometimes to get truthful reporting, any information regarding this situation helps.

I thought they were going to discontinue the feeds when they left because of the storm - they are still on but not showing much.

Check the Gulf, This storm will explode in intensity right before she makes land fall. Check the link to see how the oil is heating the water.

www.sott.net...

Bonnie is knocking on my front door right now so I will keep you updated.

Just for clarity for those who don't understand:

Hurricanes rotate counter clockwise, so for those on the gulf coast who's coast is on the south and a storm is coming in from the south, it's worse to be on the right front of the storm (the east side). The surge will happen on that side. The worst winds will be on that side. And the larger part of those being effected will be on that side. When you are on the left of the storm, or on the west, only those really close to it will be effected, the rest won't feel it. That's why my home, being in the exact center of the Louisiana coast area, was fine for Katrina (which hit new orleans), but damaged by Rita (which hit the louisiana/texas border). Those of us who live in hurricane alley are used to this every year and we understand what to expect, but for those who aren't used to this, i can understand the confusion.

reply to post by Under Water


With that being the case, and by the way, thanks for your good explanation, everyone east of New Orleans for X many miles should be mindful of the storm surge from Bonnie.

Not much changed in the 2 pm update.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Please keep your eyes on this storm. The sun is very active, the water is very warm and full of oil. The last thing the gulf shore residents need is a large violent storm dumping oily poison rain on them. I live along the ohio river in Pittsburgh a thousand miles from the gulf coast.
Believe it or not storms from the gulf get up into the Ohio valley and wreak havoc up here. So for those of you in harms way I give you this advice "Be prepared for the worst" and if it doesn't happen you can laugh about it later.......

reply to post by crazydaisy


You are deinitely right about them not showing much. Earlier, it looked like Olympic Challenger was not even at the Deepwater Horizon, but at a different well. And Hos_Achiever_Maxx_1 was focused on a drip area that had gone from a single drop coming out yesterday, to two full streams and a new drip next to those. And now....nothing much at all, but a lot of empty water, and a couple of things that I don't think show much at all.

www.sanaracreations.fi...

And there has been some good discussion about the topic of what the cams are seeing for those who are interested at:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Dockman45


Being prepared for a diasaster only makes sense, and I also hope that anyone who can possibly be affected by this storm is prepared. It is the unknown factors that are chilling to consider.

Originally posted by lasertaglover
Interesting read. I am shocked that they say that it is ok to be walking around with a light sheen of oil on your body and that the answer to oil rain is 'No' in the same article. Am I being over critical here, or is that article deceptive?

The article does seem to contradict itself, to an extent.

I sure wouldn't want the stuff on me. Here's what i can't puzzle out. It is said that the Corexit sort of 'binds' with the oil (for lack of a more scientific understanding on my part). If it binds with the oil well enough to hold the oil in big blobs under the surface of the water, would it not also be bound to the oil that may be picked up and carried inland?

That Corexit is some nasty stuff. It seems to me that the common sense approach would be to avoid any rains that Bonnie brings along with her.

reply to post by SeesFar


I have tried to stay completely on the main focus of this thread, but I want to share something that happened last night. I was reading the Dr. Seuss book, The Lorax, to my five and three year old boys, and my older daughter was listening in. Once I got the boys tucked in, she came up to me and asked, "Is BP like the Once-ler?".

I said, "Yes honey, BP is just like the Once-ler. BP got so big and greedy, that they didn't care about what happens, and this oil spill is a result."

Up until school had let out, they had discussed the spill often in her 5th grade class.

She then looked up at me with her big blue eyes, and said,"But there is no last Truffula seed for the Gulf."

Even a child understands what is happening.

For those of you who have not read this children's classic, I recommend it.

Looking at www.stormpulse.com...

It looks like Bonnie is headed a bit east of New Orleans now. Gulfport might be more in line for the surge based on the current trajectory.

Originally posted by lasertaglover
reply to post by SeesFar

 

She then looked up at me with her big blue eyes, and said,"But there is no last Truffula seed for the Gulf."

Even a child understands what is happening.

Bless her heart; that made me cry.

Where, indeed, are the Truffula Tree seeds? What creatures and delicate marsh flora will live only in memories and textbooks once the full impact of this greed-created catastrophe has been reached?

000
WTNT33 KNHC 232032
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 81.9W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASE TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BONNIE COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

reply to post by Anmarie96


Thanks for getting the 5 pm update on here! Looks like Bonnie is still on a path that puts more of the pressure on Gulfport, rather than New Orleans.

So far from what I understand, Gov Jindal will be ordering evacuations as per this Florida Oil Spill Law link.

I tend to agree with most folks here that we can probably expect a low Cat 1 hurricane before landfall as the gulf water is unusually hot and there are no upper air shear effects going on. I had noticed on NHC website last night that 10 out of 12 models track it straight into LA, and a couple (BAMF is one I think) show its continued track towards Missouri, where it will probably get pulled into the jet stream, washing it off to the east/northeast. If the center goes more towards the western corner of LA, then the system will more than likely pull much of its oil from directly over the horizon site (which also explains why the Horizon)ground zero is evacuated).

Best of luck to folks in the path.

Waiting for the next update but this tiny storm seems to be getting beat up by wind sheer. So far, no more than 40 mile per hour winds expected and not much surge expected. Looks like it might hit somewhere between new orleans and mississippi.

reply to post by Under Water


By DAVID DISHNEAU and HARRY R. WEBER, Associated Press Writers David Dishneau And Harry R. Weber, Associated Press Writers – 36 mins ago
NEW ORLEANS – Some ships prepared to move back to the site of BP's broken oil well Saturday as the remnants of a weakening Tropical Storm Bonnie rolled into the Gulf of Mexico.

The rough weather is still expected to hit the area directly, but the storm — now barely a tropical depression — broke apart as it crossed Florida and moved into the Gulf.

Dozens of vessels evacuated the Gulf Friday ahead of the storm on the orders of Retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, the federal government's spill chief.

But by Saturday morning, the rig drilling the relief tunnel that will blast mud into the broken well to permanently seal it already was getting ready to head back, BP Spokesman Steve Rinehart said.


and from the National Hurricane Center:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 241434
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...BONNIE HANGING IN THERE WITH 30 MPH WINDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 86.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE CENTER
MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND ALABAMA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BARELY 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1014 MB...29.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...ISOLATED GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...FROM
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

Tropical depression Bonnie has weakened a bunch. So much that they are talking about sending the relief ships back out sooner, than later.

This storm just might in the end, serve only as a reminder to not be complacent with the oil spill response, nor the next time a system churns its way into the gulf.

It would be great, and does look like it will be the case, that this storm will have minimal impact along the Gulf.

For everyone in the area of expected landfall, stay safe, and maybe breathe just a little bit easier in regards to the strength, and potential impact of Bonnie.

I'll keep posting about anything in the MSM, but it does look like we doged a low caliber bullet.