The 'Up to the Minute' Live Tropical Storm Bonnie and Oil Spill Thread

reply to post by lasertaglover


Time to Lube Up

Hi, thank you for starting this thread! Here is an article I found from July 17. I don't know how credible it is. Sorry.


They're Stil Lying About The Oil Disaster

Originally posted by Phage

A transducer is a device which transmits and receives sound waves. It is used by depth finders. They often have a thermometer attached to them.

[edit on 7/22/2010 by Phage]

Not entirely correct. A transducer can measure pressure, temp, sound, flow, and almost any physical thing. The nature of the construction of a transducer requires that internally it measures temp, no matter what its measuring, because the temp is critical to the accuracy of measurement. most output either a voltage range (0-5volts), current range (4-20 milliamps) or a digital data stream. The sensors on your car are transducers

dr

reply to post by Under Water


Thanks for this thread OP! Great links!

Underwater: South of Lafayette here - at least during Rita & Katrina, we were in the middle, but took direct hit from Lily years ago. I read from another poster Jindal called for state of emergency, which I guess is being more cautious than anything considering the oil.
emergency.louisiana.gov...

Approximately where are you if you don't mind? Would you be on the East or West side of landfall. I'd take the West any day! And curious to your take on the tracks projected. Very odd they are so close to the same, normally the cones are all over the gulf considering how far out it is, but as another poster stated it is similar to Katrina's track I believe.

Do you have a gut feeling on this one? Just doesn't "feel" right. Glad to hear you are stocked - we've been prepped for awhile and the generator's good to go. Not evacing unless it is over a Cat-3, which is unlikely.

Look forward to your insight. And OP, thanks again! Peace & God Bless!

Port Everglades Update:

TS Bonnie's outer bands are brining much-needed rain. Winds are gusting around 20 - 35 miles per hour. That translates to anything from a Fresh Breeze to Fresh Gale.

No oil or funny smells.







[edit on 23-7-2010 by mike_trivisonno]

The 8 am update from the National Hurricane Center:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

000
WTNT33 KNHC 231138
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE NEARING SOUTH FLORIDA...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 79.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA


INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE BONNIE MOVES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER..

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE KEYS IN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

Originally posted by Antoniastar
Hi, thank you for starting this thread! Here is an article I found from July 17. I don't know how credible it is. Sorry.

I don't know anything about the site that offer the article about Matt Simmons, but i *do* know that Mr. Simmons is being very vocal about what he believes the truth and dangers are.

So far, though, all he's provided to back up his claims are his own experience and that BP workers and others are coming to him in confidence to report what they know.

A poster on another thread made the comment that he believes Simmons to be correct because as Simmons reports these issues he continues to state he hopes he's wrong.

Simmons' concerns about a hurricane pulling oil up from deep are mirrored by a Texas Tech Univ scientist. The OP put the link to the TTU article on the front page of this thread, if you want to read it ~ lots of information in it compared to what else has been coming out.

Speaking of information coming out: Texas A&M Oceanography dept put out a large report about methane levels at certain places in the Gulf being 10,000 to one million times higher than normal. And the page was taken down in less than 48 hours. Interesting? I don't want to be one of those who jump the gun, incite fear or anything like that, but it SEEMS like information is being taken away as well as withheld.

reply to post by mike_trivisonno


Hey mike_trivisonno! Thank you for the live update from Southern Florida and the Keys. I am very glad that there is no oil, or even oil smell!

reply to post by lasertaglover


Thanks for the update. So far, she just remains a tropical storm! That's good news!

reply to post by myra017


I appreciate your link to Governor Jindal's Press Release. Thanks!

[edit on 23-7-2010 by lasertaglover]

reply to post by SeesFar


This storm is really going to be cruising across the Gulf. Here it is Friday morning, and we are getting live updates from ATS members regarding Southern Florida, and she is expected to still make landfall on Sunday.

I think that at this point, the biggest danger is oil from the storm surge, and whatever else might happen from a combination of the storm and the oil in the water.

Some people say that it will work like a fan, and increase the rate at which the oil disperses which could be a good thing, while others think that it will work in reverse, and suck up oil that will than fall over land from the oil just being in the air, or from being mixed in with the rain.

Does anyone have any credible weather links that discuss which way the storm might be affected by the oil?

I think that additional oil in the storm surge is pretty obvious, but the air aspect is still being debated.

reply to post by Antoniastar


Thank you for your news link.

I have seen a lot of debate here on ATS regarding Simmons. Some think he is like Paul Revere, some think he is a salesperson for his own brand of infomercial. It seems he is a very polarizing character, no matter which side you are on.

One thing that I am worried about though, is that if this storm makes a direct hit on the coast, and it is not affected by the oil spill at all, than some people along the coast might become complacent, and not respond as they should when the next one comes along. I think that the people of the Gulf Coast are really being given a great chance to not get nailed by this first, real strike on the coast, and that we should learn as much as possible from the facts.

Knowledge is power, and since we do not get real knowledge regarding the oil spill from the Fed or BP, this is a good chance to at least learn of the affects of a large storm and the oil spill.

I did just find this article on the Weather Channel regarding oil rain:

www.weather.com...

Hurricanes and Oil: The Hurricane Alex Effect
by Becky Kellogg
Raining Oil?

What happens when the hurricane moves inland? It's not just coastal residents affected by the massive storms. The remnants can affect communities hundreds of miles inland. One of the most popular questions is will it rain oil on my house? The answer is no.

Oil slick at site of Deepwater Horizon oil spill
Image: AP

As the hurricane moves inland it will pick up particles of oil. That will become part of the sea spray that moves inland with the storm. According to Chris Zappa, an oceanographer at Columbia University, we're likely to see a light coating of oil on electrical wires and trees. He likens it to standing in sea spray for a while. You'll walk away with a light sheen of salt water on your skin. Instead of salt water, it will feel like oil water.

However, this would be a very localized effect. For example if a hurricane made landfall in Alabama, the coastal communities would feel the oily sea spray. However, it wouldn't make it to Montgomery or even Dothan, which are both more than hour inland.

Thinking about a sheen of oil on your skin may give you the heebie jeebies, but it won't hurt you. Experts at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) say the amount of oil that would be carried inland in water vapor would be less than normal levels of pollution.



Interesting read. I am shocked that they say that it is ok to be walking around with a light sheen of oil on your body and that the answer to oil rain is 'No' in the same article. Am I being over critical here, or is that article deceptive?

Laserglover: Thanks again! 1008 MB is a great thing right now!

Mike: TY for the update also. Peace all & stay safe!

Not sure if this is relevant or not, but there is a full moon in two days.

If the storm makes landfall during the high tide, it will increase the storm surge. Throwing in the fact we could be under a full moon, do you think that makes a difference? I'm not sure, that's why I'm asking.

Here is a website I found regarding tides and hurricanes for the Atlantic. I know we are discussing the GoM & a tropical storm, but it has me concerned about the effects.
www.hurricanetrack.com...

Also here is a link to NOAA's tide prediction page (if it's not been posted already)
tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov...

Originally posted by myra017
reply to post by Under Water

 

Thanks for this thread OP! Great links!

Underwater: South of Lafayette here - at least during Rita & Katrina, we were in the middle, but took direct hit from Lily years ago. I read from another poster Jindal called for state of emergency, which I guess is being more cautious than anything considering the oil.
emergency.louisiana.gov...

Approximately where are you if you don't mind? Would you be on the East or West side of landfall. I'd take the West any day! And curious to your take on the tracks projected. Very odd they are so close to the same, normally the cones are all over the gulf considering how far out it is, but as another poster stated it is similar to Katrina's track I believe.

Do you have a gut feeling on this one? Just doesn't "feel" right. Glad to hear you are stocked - we've been prepped for awhile and the generator's good to go. Not evacing unless it is over a Cat-3, which is unlikely.

Look forward to your insight. And OP, thanks again! Peace & God Bless!

I'm located south of abbeville. We evacuate for Cat.2 or higher. I'm watching this one pretty close. I'ts close to Katrina's track but not quite the same. Katrina was deeper in the gulf and slower and that helped it to become a monster. This one should stay a tropical storm. Now they are showing a direct hit up new orleans, which puts us on the west side. I remember Katrina, for us it was a beautiful but very windy day. Rita however, because we were on the right front, knocked a tree and thank god fell right on the side of our house instead of on it. It ruined many areas just south of me, and poor cameron parish...... the surge came pretty close that time. It will probably come even closer now that the marshes are dying. I remember Lily quite well. My neighborhood never fully recovered from that one. It came right up the vermillion bay, and right on top of our house. I am concerned about the oil getting in the bayou's, all we can do is wait and see what happens i guess.

Yesterday they showed a direct hit up the vermillion bay, now they show new orleans as the direct hit.... we'll see if anything changes between now and sunday.

reply to post by OneisOne


OneisOne you posted some great links here! I did not have the NOAA Tide Prediction web site, and after going through it, I mean it, thanks.

And yes, it does make a difference about the full moon, in regards to the tides.

Knowledge is Power.

Deny Ingorance.

[edit on 23-7-2010 by lasertaglover]

reply to post by Under Water


Hey Under Water. Please stay safe!

I know that as far as storms go, this one is 'mild', but the unknown factors in relation to the spill are cause for concern.

I remember seeing something on the Weather Channel a few weeks ago that talked about the rotation of a Gulf Storm, in relation to the storm surge. It was something about one side of the coast away from the storm getting more surge than the other.

I guess my question is, will everything east of Bonnie's landfall get more surge, or will everything west of Bonnie get more? Anyone know this information and have links?

I think knowing this would be of importance to those being directly affected by Bonnie.

000
WTNT33 KNHC 231450
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...CENTER OF BONNIE OVER BISCAYNE BAY...MOST OF THE WEATHER ALREADY
INLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 80.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN
FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AT 1100 AM EDT...1500
UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS APPROACHING THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3
WEST. BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO IMPORTANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE BONNIE IS
CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN ELEVATED AUTOMATIC
STATION AT FOWEY ROCKS OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA JUST
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 52
MPH...85 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

reply to post by Anmarie96


Thank you getting the 11 am update up for us Anmarie96.

There was one part of the update that answered a question of mine:

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST

So it is the east, or right side of when a Gulf Storm makes landfall that the storm surge is worse.

It does seem that since yesterday when Bonnie was first named, that her trajectory has also drifted a bit more eastward. While I do not want this storm to affect anyone, I hope the projected landfall trajectory does continue to drift. Because please correct me if I am wrong, but if it lands at all to the west of New Orleans, or directly on it, they would get the most storm surge. And according to the release above, that would be in the amount of 3-5 feet.