The 'Up to the Minute' Live Tropical Storm Bonnie and Oil Spill Thread

What does everyone think about the potential for evacuations?

I know it is way too early, but evacuations occur all the time for hurricanes, without the oil. The oil complicates this issue a bit, I would think.

Originally posted by lasertaglover
reply to post by niblo

 

One of the things that is really important is the water temperature. The warmer the water, the more powerful that #3 (Bonnie) could become.

Current water temp readings indicate that there is a lot of warmth in the Gulf right now, but that is the case for this time of the year and the reason that August is the peak month for tropical storms. The water is at its warmest.

There has been speculation on some of the BP threads that the oil might actually cause the water to be slightly warmer, but I am not an expert, and I am not sure if that hypothesis has been proven, or disproven in any way.

[edit on 22-7-2010 by lasertaglover]

This young lady has been doing a lot of work on this situation, has had an inside angle that few others have had and is a lifelong Gulf resident. I don't think her intent in that vid is to be inciting fear, but to alert people what the worst case possibilities *could* be, given the exact right (wrong?) circumstances.

According to her information in this video, current temps in the Gulf in some places (i understood her to say in plumes?) are a full SEVEN degrees higher than normal. Two degrees higher than normal can cause one h3lluva hurricane. I wish there was some way to know whether or not her temperature information is correct.

www.youtube.com...

This storm has me worried as whatever it's carrying with it will pass right over my area.

I really like her video in this ATS thread:

RED ALERT-Louisiana Woman Tells it like it is

www.abovetopsecret.com...

with this link for the you tube video:

www.youtube.com...

And I was very interested in everything that she was saying in the video that you posted (and by the way, thanks for posting it for the sake of discussion), UNTIL she started talking about under water volcano scenario and the giant wall of water.

Don't get me wrong, I think this Depression #3 (Bonnie) has the potential to interact with the Oil Spill in a way that COULD produce some really bad consequences. But I do not understand the tsunami theory, even though I have read about it on many different ATS threads. It seems too outlandish for me, too Hollywood-esque (the movie 2012) to believe in it.

I do think she has some strong ideas, and a number of different points correct, but I worry about the line between strong emotional reaction to correct scientific data, and hysteria. She is an amazing woman, regardless.

Star for you for the video, thanks again.

Calling for her to become Tropical Storm Bonnie by tomorrow.


Tropical depression moving toward oil spill

By JUAN McCARTNEY, Associated Press Writer Juan Mccartney, Associated Press Writer – 2 hrs 2 mins ago
NASSAU, Bahamas – Rain and lightning from a tropical depression raked the low-lying Turks and Caicos Islands and the southern Bahamas on Thursday as it steamed on a course for the site of massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm system, which has already caused flooding in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, could become Tropical Storm Bonnie by later Thursday and reach the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday.

By early Thursday afternoon, the center said the depression had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 kph), with stronger gusts, and was centered about 250 miles (400 kilometers) southeast of the Bahamian capital of Nassau.

Forecasters said a reconnaissance plane was nearing the depression to determine if the system had become a tropical storm.

Skies darkened and people stocked up on water and food in the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, island chains that are well-accustomed to rough weather. Many businesses remained open, but schools were already closed for the summer.

"There's definitely some lightning and thunder out there," said Johanny Lightbourne, a manager at a market in the island of Providenciales in Turks and Caicos. "But it's still business as usual, pretty much."

Donna Musgrove, a businesswoman in Providenciales, said some streets were flooded. "It's raining from one end of the island to the other," she said. "The skies are completely dark."

By Thursday afternoon, the tropical depression did not pose a threat to tourist resorts in the islands.

Residents in the southeastern Bahamas endured heavy rains and copious lightning, but no damages or injuries have been reported. Officials with the Emergency Operations Center said they would travel to the area with basic supplies as soon as the weather improves.

A tropical storm warning was issued for the central and northwestern Bahamas, for Florida's east coast south of Golden Beach and also along Florida's west coast northward to Bonita Beach.

The system is expected bring heavy winds and rains to the Florida Keys in the next few days, but emergency officials said they were not planning any mandatory evacuations since they are not expecting any major storm surge.

As a precaution, storm shelters will open for tourists and residents who live on boats or have special needs.

In the Dominican Republic, where roughly 1,500 people were evacuated, rice fields were destroyed and several communities left isolated after bridges collapsed. A 14-year-old boy died in Puerto Rico on Sunday after drowning in a swollen river.

Haiti's Department of Civil Protection reported minor flooding in the northern Artibonite region but no injuries or major damage.

reply to post by lasertaglover


I agree with you about the overly 'hollywood-esque' parts of her vid. It's the hurricane related information that interests me. I've seen her first vid and thought she did a good job of relaying her information. Interestingly, when Australia's 60 Minutes team came to do an expose on the Gulf, she was the person they interviewed.

One of the most frustrating things about this Gulf disaster is that those who *could* give us the information we need (such as accurate Gulf temps) are doing all the can to conceal it.

It's difficult to determine what the realities might be without any significant information, so i think we're all just doing out best and most of us are trying not to scare the daylights out of anyone else.

Thank you for starting the thread. It's my humble opinion that all of this year's tropical storms bear vigilant watching.

reply to post by SeesFar


I hope that this storm does not even reach Hurricane status, or if she does, that she stays at a Category 1 at the worst.

However, I think that there are two ways at looking at this storm:

1) It stays weak or even mild, and it allows everyone a chance to study the heck out of it, to see if we can relax a bit about the implications of a powerful storm over the oil spill and what they might be. Remember, it is still very early in the season, so even if (hopefully) this storm is weak, it might serve as a template that helps us to prepare for the next one, which might be bigger.

or

2) It gets really strong (CAT 3-5). If it gets strong than there are three possibilities, IMO:

a) It is not affected in any way by the oil, and only affects wherever it strikes like a completely normal, albeit destructive, hurricane would hit.

b) It is only partially affected by the oil spill, like causing the storm surge to have oil and COREXIT in it, which could potentially cause additional problems for up to many X number of miles inland.

or

c) It is nightmare crazy in a way that I think (and pray) comes under the Hollywood-esque scenario, of not really going to happen.

For now, I have blinders on to the doomsday theorists myself. I hope this storm is weak, and allows us the time to prepare for something worse from storms that come later in the season. And what I mean by worse, is limited to maybe only oil storm surge, which is horrible enough to think about as it is.

Deny Ignorance....it can save lives.

[edit on 22-7-2010 by lasertaglover]

I don't see the point in a new thread here...We already have tons of oil spill threads. If anything this should just relate to the hurricane/depression/storm. It's very aggravating to try and keep up with so many threads. Now most people don't pay attention to the ROV thread...and with "oil spill" in the title, I don't see them paying attention to it at all. www.abovetopsecret.com.... I mean its already 108 pages long... Do we really need all these threads for the oil spill? Why can't we keep it confined to two or three simple threads? Just an idea.

oil workers may have to evacuate. Says cnn..

www.cnn.com...

reply to post by DragonFire1024


I think you have done great things with the other threads relating to the BP spill. Your posts are very compelling.

The main one, The "Up to the Minute" BP Livefeed Discussion Thread, really has you doing on a lot of great things there, as well as your own recent threads. But I think that thread is good for what it is called for mostly, the Livefeed Discussion. The Up to the Minute place for ROV feed talking points.

I am simply trying to get as many links for one single thread, because I feel like you, that there are so many threads out there. I mean come on, how many new BP threads are being made a day is almost ridiculous. The Livefeed thread saved us all from all of those different Livefeed threads that were based off of a simple single question regarding the Livefeed. Now, most people can go to that site that Birdman made, and ask their questions or post thier comments there in regards to the livefeeds, instead of making a new thread every time.

It is my wish that this thread is used in the same way, for the specific discussion of the current news, potential controversy, and overall good discussion of this Tropical Event and the Oil Spill. This event is unprecedented in history, and deserves a strong focus.

If you have any links to threads or websites that you believe are important or would like to share, please do so. Thanks.

reply to post by Wookiep


Good find. I think that it is standard to have to evacuate all of the oil rigs near a tropical system in the Gulf, at least those near to that particular tropical system.

Your article also mentioned that the cap is staying on during the passing of the storm, as there had been some hinting of it being possibly removed. I think that is a good thing.

reply to post by lasertaglover


Here is the official Hurricane/Oil response from NOAA.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Worst part is that the forecasted track is West of Oil Spill which will push the slick further into the coast. However, they seem to think the dispersed oil will become even more dispersed... No worries from NOAA...

I don't think I'd be hanging on to a pole covering this possible Hurricane (TS3) for TWC!

when the water splashes and goes into the air so will the oil into vapor. The whole coast over there will smell thick of oil. I wonder where the oil will go now and how thick on the beaches it will be. I see a large disaster getting larger.

reply to post by lasertaglover


I think you've made some good points. I, too, am hoping that this one remains week and provides an opportunity for study. I don't even want to *think* about the more dire options.

reply to post by SeesFar


The dire consequences are what scare the beejeebers out of me. BP has been so clandestine in revealing any information about anything. And for that matter, I think the FED has as well. I mean after all, the Fed has to have subs down there checking everything out. There just has to be more information coming in from somwhere that we do not know about.

I think that is why I am hopeful that this storm provides some missing information, because I think that it would be hard for the Media Censors to prevent the sheer amount of weather data that is going to be analyzed by weather centers and university departments across the country.

They can try to hide their mistakes, but they can't hide the enormous power of Nature.

reply to post by 1curious1


The latest also talks about a small storm surge of 1 to 2 feet across portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Keys.

There has been a lot of debate about how far oil might be into the Gulf Stream. A surge of two feet might reveal the answer to that question, if there is any oil in nearby waters.

I really hope there is none, or it is far enough offshore to not affect the pristine and beautiful Keys.

What if the storm gets really bad and a rouge wave takes out another platform of BP'S? The hurricane will splash the water, oil mixture around and will be put in the air. I only see people complainning about throat problems and loss of breath especially the elderlly. More People will end up in the hospitals.

[edit on 22-7-2010 by nite owl]

reply to post by lasertaglover


This was taken on May 24...if they didn't clean up the slick good enough, it might already be there...just underwater. I would think they used a lot of dispersant on this. Florida is at the upper right, the oil slick goes down and out of the photo...

Originally posted by DragonFire1024
reply to post by lasertaglover

 

This was taken on May 24...if they didn't clean up the slick good enough, it might already be there...just underwater. I would think they used a lot of dispersant on this. Florida is at the upper right, the oil slick goes down and out of the photo...

can you get a wider view on that, or a little bit higher up on that? I really would appreciate a new photo, but higher up. Where did you get that? google earth? That is an amazing shot of the oil spill. good find. OOPS, I should of not did the quote. Now there is two pics.

[edit on 22-7-2010 by nite owl]

[edit on 22-7-2010 by nite owl]

Shelters and evacuations are already in force for the Keys.

This is normal stuff for people in the region. As fas as I can tell from the Port Everglades area, we will just have some rainy weather for the next few days.

If any oil or stuff falls from the sky or washes up the roads (I am pretty close to the beaches) I will post pictures in this thread and take samples of the air and water for analysis.

If toxic conditions require an exodus of refugees, I will try to chronicle the mayhem as we are herded north on I-95 or the Florida Turnpike.

Observation Area (Before Oilcane)
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/abf8e0527f12.jpg[/atsimg]

reply to post by nite owl


IMO, there are a number of factors that could cause oil to get into air. But even if it did, there a number of other factors to consider.

How much gets into the air? How long can it stay in the air? Would it all come back down quicker through rain, or simply ease back down and cause eye and throat irritations everywhere.

This storm is not projected to strengthen rapidly at all. I am not sure how correct this is, but I would think that the amount of oil disturbed into the atmosphere would be related to the overall strength, and also, size of the storm when it passes over the affected oil spill area.

But again, I have seen good debate saying that a larger storm could also speed up the evaporation process in a good way.

I rather hope that if this storm does get stronger, that it works like a fan, and power disperses the oil faster, and in a way that actually helps speed up the clean-up process.