The Gulf Gives Birth to Hurricane Alex (Weekend Headlines June 26th 2010)

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ETA: Wonder if Clouds will get the highly valued "ATS Psychic of the Year Award" ???

[edit on 6/24/2010 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Hx3 it is good to see ya my friend.........Thanks for the update I think
Your sitting pretty good for the time being where you live........


Here is a map of the potential track of the storm that is brewing...........




This thread is all about warning those members here of the possible threat..........

I can only hope many listen and prepare to leave away from any rain bands that this storm may produce when it come across land.......

[edit on 24-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

[edit on 24-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

[edit on 24-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA
BORDER. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[edit on 6/25/2010 by Hx3_1963]

Well it looks like Alex will be born on schedule..........I have seen tracking reports if it does develop that if it takes the path towards the US we will have 5 to 7 days before land fall.

I hope everyone will take the next 48 hours to learn everything they can about Corexit that is being used as well as the methane warnings that have been posted. Another thread posted the Corexit health risk fact sheet. I have a copy if someone did not see it........

lmrk.org...

Also read the Federal Study on Toxic Rain that our government released in one of my post a couple back to help make your decision if this spill and the chemicals used pose a risk for those of us in a storms path 100's of miles inland........

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND CAYMAN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TOINVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED.


[edit on 25-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

I am posting a NOAA image of data analysis of where the oil spill is presently. This data image is of 6/23. I feel that this data does not include any "plumes" and only surface oil............






[edit on 25-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


When hurricanes pass over shallow areas, they cause a tremendous amount of change to the bottom, but in deep water, I don't think they cause problems on the sea floor.
Any experts that can comment on this?

reply to post by shapeshiftress


Not an expert in this area but I think you are right, but.......I posted a report from the 12 scientist reporting this week on how high the methane levels are out in the gulf area associated with the spill..........which leads me to beleive that "gases" are lying just below the surface.......

So if a violent storm passes over releasing these gases it could pose a major health risk……I think that was what Hx3 was attempting to relay………..But who knows he is a borg………

I stand corrected, there is now a 70 % chance that this storm will become a tropical storm. And there is another system approaching from the east of Cuba. Good call OP.

fixed typo

[edit on 6/25/2010 by darkelf]

[edit on 6/25/2010 by darkelf]

Originally posted by shapeshiftress
reply to post by Hx3_1963

 

When hurricanes pass over shallow areas, they cause a tremendous amount of change to the bottom, but in deep water, I don't think they cause problems on the sea floor.
Any experts that can comment on this?

Yes, they cause a tremendous change in the sea floor as well. I don't know about the very deep water, but certainly in the near shore sea floor. Sandbars move and shrink or grow. Beds of Seaweed become dislodged and come to shore. They even find a lot of old shipwrecks after storms, because the sand on the seafloor has shifted so much. Turbulent water and breaking waves on top of the water = turbulent undercurrents and chaos under the water. Scuba divers can tell you this as well. They may not feel the waves, but they lose their visibility, and they know things are going on at the surface.

We are at 70% now with another "baby" out there that is at 10%. My local (Houston) news FINALLY discussed Alex, may as well start calling it by its name, this morning. It's about time. Why not give people more of a heads up on what is happening in the world and show less of things involving Quanell X? I hate the local news!!! I am actually hoping and praying this thing goes on down to South Texas and not to Louisiana - as some of the forecasts are showing is a possibility.

Ok, so I kind of repeated what someone else already said with the whole 70%, but whatever - we all get it - something is coming...

[edit on 25-6-2010 by christine76]

Originally posted by christine76
We are at 70% now with another "baby" out there that is at 10%. My local (Houston) news FINALLY discussed Alex, may as well start calling it by its name, this morning. It's about time. Why not give people more of a heads up on what is happening in the world and show less of things involving Quanell X? I hate the local news!!! I am actually hoping and praying this thing goes on down to South Texas and not to Louisiana - as some of the forecasts are showing is a possibility.

Quanell X sheesh he was one of things i dont miss about Houston what a twit and a wanker

Here are the two current locations of the tropical threats to the oil spill...




[edit on 25-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

The Gulf Coast is a ticking time bomb. Its only a matter of time before we see a major storm. If its not this one it will be the next letter in the alphabet. I wish there was a more positive way to look at it but there just isn't.

Been keeping an furious eye on this for the past four days.

Recon plane is out now and the consensus is that it will almost assuredly come back with this being a Tropical Depression. Unlike yesterday Alex is beginning to ramp up quickly and we should see some fast development in the next two days.

The quicker Alex gets stronger the higher probability of it moving East, NE. Right smack dab in oil hell Louisiana and Mississippi.

The slower it takes to form and or weaker than it will continue to head west toward Mexico\Texas.

In any case there is absolutely nothing that will get in the way of this storm for the next couple of days. No real land masses, no wind shear. It has loads and loads of warm moist air and plenty of time before it gets into the bathtub of energy that is gulf.

This storm will be the news headline for the weekend into next week.

The real kicker is these storms are 4-6 early in the season which means this year is going to be buku active.

Just giving a heads up on just how much despersents were used thus far....

About 1.47 million gallons of dispersant have been applied to the gushing oil so far, an unprecedented amount. Of that, 972,000 gallons were sprayed on the surface, while 493,000 gallons were sprayed deep underwater — the first time anyone has sprayed dispersant below the surface……


"We're using the product that's been approved by the government," BP spokesman Bryan Ferguson said. As for the subsea plumes of dissolved oil droplets, Ferguson said, "We're still evaluating and investigating that and we have no comment."

"Dispersants mixed with oil can be as toxic, if not more toxic, than the oil itself. In fact, Mitchelmore testified to a congressional panel last week, dispersants may actually make it easier for fish, oysters, mussels and other marine life to absorb the oil."

"Some Louisiana cleanup workers have complained of being sprayed with dispersant from planes hired by BP, and reported skin irritation, headaches and nausea. But federal officials said they had been monitoring the dispersant use and so far had found no human exposure problems."

www.tampabay.com...

So now lets add a tropical storm.......one hell of a cocktail it will be.....



[edit on 25-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

[edit on 25-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

I have never heard of Wayne Madsen or do I read OilPrice.Com......

oilprice.com...

But his article is exactly what I am warning about here on this thread..........

His quote:
A looming environmental and population displacement disaster is brewing in the Gulf. The oil dispersant used by BP, Corexit 9500, is seen by FEMA sources as mixing with evaporated water from the Gulf and absorbed by rain clouds producing toxic precipitation that threatens to continue killling marine and land animals, plant life, and humans within a 200-mile radius of the Deepwater Horizon disaster site in the Gulf.

[edit on 25-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

[edit on 25-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

I am deeply concerned, I understand evacuation plans are under way - all ships and boats will have to leave the ocean. Let's keep on track with this one - on the edge of tears right now.


A low pressure area centered between the northeast coast of Honduras and grand cayman continues to show signs of organization. Shower activity has become a little more concentrated this morning, and surface pressures are falling. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression before it reaches the yucatan peninsula in a couple of days. There is a high chance, 70 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate this disturbance later today to determine if a tropical cyclone has formed.

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND
CAYMAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SYSTEM TO
DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM AT ANY TIME LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND REACH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Tracking 2010
www.hurricane-tracking.co.uk...

[edit on 6/25/2010 by Hx3_1963]

So, uhh.... What should a person living in Orlando do in this situation?

Buy a gas mask now and start wearing it everywhere?
Build a makeshift underground bunker?
Get the hell outta Florida now before the Corexit kills my respiratory system?

reply to post by The Dutch


That is why I started this thread way before Alex or any other system hit the MSM...........

I am from Louisiana and all my family is still there...............I am telling them to get the hell out of there before a system comes to shore..........

But you will need to be a day or two a head of the storm living where you live..........

Living in Florida is even worse.........your not trapped (yet)........