The Gulf Gives Birth to Hurricane Alex (Weekend Headlines June 26th 2010)

reply to post by Cloudsinthesky


Alright.... but here's the thing.

I'm only 16 years old. My family thinks i'm bat sh*t crazy already, for even doubting what the Lawd Obama and the Government says. My dad is a military dick-rider (seriously goes with absolutely anything the military wants) and my mom's greatest concern is hypothesizing about what the new episodes of Glee will be next season.

So, I can either:
a) Abandon my family (I'm gonna have to at some point, anyways), get a few friends together who feel the same as me, and go out to Virginia
b) Stay here and... have fun living for the next 10 months or so I guess.

My options seem somewhat limited.

reply to post by The Dutch


I see you just joined ATS on the 24th...........What led you here and to this thread?

I am not the one to ask when it comes to someone your age.........I am sure there are many people in your community that are having the same concerns as many here in this forum............You should seek guidance locally and discuss your concerns with your parents..........

reply to post by Cloudsinthesky


I've been lurking for around 2 weeks or so. So not a super complete newbie.

I don't exactly know what lead me to this website, but I was doing research on Monarch Programming, and some Web page talked about ATS. Seemed pretty legit, so I checked it out.

And I actually just talked to my dad about what he thought about Hurricane Alex and possible evacuation, and he said "BS, stop talking about these god damn unpatriotic Web sites you go to."

reply to post by The Dutch


Dutch, I agree with your DAD! The Military in general is absolutely Patriotic, Trustworthy, and they have the citizens best interest at heart. There is nothing "unpatriotic" about ATS, but there are some people that blame the entire military for the actions of a few (i.e. Abu Ghraib).

Now, as far as evacuations and the military. I have spent a lot of time in Okaloosa County where Eglin Air Force Base and Hurlburt Field reside. Our military personnel in those areas are just regular folks like you and me. The Government would be entirely out of their mind if they tried to test the loyalty of these folks. If it comes down to defending their friends, neighbors, families and Constitution vs. defending some ape sh*t orders as you put it, then the military will be on our side 100% of the time.

The government knows this, and that is why they won't object to Okaloosa County doing their own harbor protection plan. The government won't take the gamble that the military will tell them to stick it!

As an example, there are the Oathkeepers (look them up), there are people like General McChrystal, and even Petraeus (I saw him speak here in Tallahassee). We may have some batsh*t crazy politicians, and we may have a few bad apples, but by and large, the military is our friend and defender! Plus, I don't believe for a second that they will evacuate the coasts. If anything, they will try to prevent a mass exodus from the Coast, because that would devastate the Coastal economy, and the economy wherever the people end up!

It's not Hurricane Alex yet and when you deal with extreme weather folks you have to be clear and on the level.

Talking about potential hurricanes and where they might go isn't like other topics in ATS. This stuff really has the potential to cause panic and harm so please lets just keep it on the level and there is plenty of time to prepare.


Right now the system is organizing but for all the weird reasons is has not begun any sort of rotation. The recon plane is still out there and almost assuredly this will be classified as TD at 5:00 when the next update from NHC (National Hurricane Center).

After which its anyone's guess how fast Alex begins to grow and how big. The bigger it gets the worse it is for the oil crews, and the rest of the eastern gulf. The slower it grows and if it stays relatively small it will end up in Mexico and Texas.

Remember all of this stuff can change at any time. Just keep cool and stay informed.




[edit on 25-6-2010 by AllexxisF1]

93L near tropical depression strength
www.wunderground.com...

Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.

www.wunderground.com...

Forecast for 93L

The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics

A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster

East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster

Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Storm Tracks
8:00am
icons-ecast.wunderground.com...
2:00pm
icons-ecast.wunderground.com...

[edit on 6/25/2010 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Cloudsinthesky


Just imagine how apocalyptic this could become if somebody lit a match in that hurricane. It might permanently destroy the environment overnight. That being said, why don't the "Powers That Were" stop dicking around and use their high technology to fix this before we decide we might as well drag them through the streets and lynch them up like they've been sweating for a while. Fixing this problem would be like saving the world from ruin. We might just forgive them for all the evil they've done. Though I doubt they care now anymore than they ever did what happens to us. Oh well, guess I better buy some rope.

reply to post by Syrus Magistus


You won't need a match one good lightning strike could do it. That's been one of my fears all along!

What is the worst case scenario if the storm(s) will hit with full force ?

reply to post by Syrus Magistus


They are already doing controlled burns, and it is a good thing! If the surface oil and methane gas and H2S and benzene can burn off, then we don't have to worry about it anymore.

The problem is if it doesn't burn off. It could linger and build and build and then it could go off when we least expect it, without the benefit of torrential rains to control it.

The real danger here is the distribution of all this toxic soup into the Fresh Water reservoirs and the storm surge and wave action pushing this toxic soup into the bays and harbors and marshes and estuaries.

The second and larger danger is if the dissolved Methane gases are disturbed and decide to change state from solution to gas! Then we get a giant tsunami, toxic air for 100's of miles, and possibility of the large scale explosion that you mention. The rough seas and cooling rains could trigger just such a change of state, and the lightning could ignite the gases. Even if it doesn't ignite, the massive volume change would be devastating!

We have Tropical Depression ONE!!

I'm not a 2012 apocalypse kind of person. I'm not a particularly religious person. But I just saw a weather map of the front that might organize itself to cause additional concern in the Gulf. We're cursed. Mother has had enough of us & our nonsense, & pay back is a bitch. This is crazy. It's like being in a nightmare & unable to wake up...and I don't even live near the Gulf. It just keeps getting worse.

k

This is DO or DIE time for the U.S. govt & National Guard!

They know what is coming to the shores. You don't think they're not watching this?

This Isn't Obama's Katrina, this is his Chernobyl!

Don't 2nd guess yourself on evacuating or at the minimum start planning. Because once it hits land, it'll keep going into other states, carrying whatever else w/ it... Even IF it doesn't hit, sure as the sun will come up tommorrow there will be more storms.

Plan for the worst, Hope for the Best!

Here is the NOAA projected tracking map over the next couple days

When this puppy hits the Gulf proper sometime Sunday night/Monday morning it will hit waters around 80-90 degrees F, which should kick it up a notch or two if the the upper level winds stay about the same.

The disturbance east of the Leewards might have organized itself into something more structured by then, too.

What will happen if we get a couple of big tropical storms, not to mention possible hurricanes, colliding somewhere around/over Florida? Or just banging on the Gulf and the east coast of Florida?

About the only thing I know for sure is that the potential for amping this disaster is quite high: the Gulf is very warm, so there's plenty of fuel for a hurricane to feed on.

Check the links to see what I mean:

Being a silent fan of Weather Underground (mainly because some of the science is over my head) is a real treat. One of the benefits of seeing these guys rack their brains about storm is you start getting a consensus of what might happen.

Many of them tend to be really grounded and not wish casters or doom casters. This time however I see something really new and at the same time scary.

Many of them have an "ominous" feeling about this storm. Mainly about how big it is before it even really gets going. Added to that the massive amounts of available energy.

The picture I see from them discussing this is that TD1 will grow, and grow quick. Especially in the next two days.

Those like myself who live in Florida or the gulf should be really paying attention to this storm once or twice a day.

reply to post by AllexxisF1


Another poster on this thread said he was going to ride it out as far as the potential toxic rain is concerned........What are your thoughts on the threat of having a toxic cocktail??

[edit on 25-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

My son is in Austin, I'm very concered! By Tuesday, we should know where it's going but right now, the trajectory is anywhere between Mexico to Louisianna.

reply to post by koperniguz


That's very hard to guage without accurate information, and accurate information has been the thing in shortest supply (besides common sense) in this debacle.

But at a minimum, wherever the storm pushes a surge ashore, the land will be covered in oil to one degree or another.

The main two things I worry about are these:

1. Wave action churns the waters releasing the methane, hydrogen sulfides, benzine, and other gases into the wind streams. I'm not so sure that what will result will be lethal (probably not), but it surely will not be healthy to breathe it and will probably cause respiratory problems among the very young and very old.

2. After the storm passes, lightning strikes set an area of oiled water, marshlands, or a town on fire and that fire spreads uncontrollably because everything is soaked in oily water.

Might be way offbase.......but....seems like two logical progressions to me.

A very remote possiblity, repeat, REMOTE, is that IF this turns into a heavy-duty hurricane with extremely low barometric pressure, AND it passes over the wellhead, then the pressure gradients MIGHT change enough to trigger a large methane sublimation event. If that happens, all bets are off: anything could occur.

Before anyone flames me for fear-mongering I repeat: REMOTE, IF, AND, MIGHT. It is a possibility that should be acknowledged and prepared for, even if it turns out to be unnecessary. I'd rather have a plan and equipment in place that turns out to be unneeded that to have people be told "tough luck, we gambled and lost, sorry 'bout that."

[edit on 25-6-2010 by apacheman]

Atlantic Has Its First Tropical Depression of 2010 Season
www.accuweather.com...

The tropical brew of showers, thunderstorms and tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea has given birth to the first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on Friday.

Tropical Depression One is forecast by AccuWeather.com meteorologists to soon become a tropical storm, and then possibly a hurricane over the next several days.

The depression is currently located 355 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico and has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

The first name on the list of Atlantic tropical cyclones this season is "Alex."

(There's yer Birthing Headline Clouds...I call a 100% score on this...possibly a ATS First...)

vortex.accuweather.com...

The depression destined to become Alex will drift across the Yucatan, Mexico this weekend, producing heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms. There is an elevated risk of flash flooding and mudslides over a broad area of Central America as a result of the system drifting slowly to the northwest.

A window of movement ranging from Louisiana to Tamaulipas, Mexico exists for possible storm tracks next week, as the system is expected to emerge on the northwestern side of the Yucatan Peninsula later Sunday.

vortex.accuweather.com...

Waters are very warm in the western Caribbean and in much of the Gulf of Mexico. While the system will battle with the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, strengthening prior to and after engaging the land mass is inevitable.

The system will pull a great deal of tropical moisture northward on its eastern side. As a result, regardless of the exact track, squalls and building seas are likely not only over the central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but also over eastern areas.

While a track over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico would mean substantially less impact on the oil spill area, building seas and gusty thunderstorms from the tropical vale of moisture could cause some hazards and disruptions.

A track over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico would mean the roughest conditions, and prove to be the most disruptive over the oil spill area. A south to southeasterly flow on the eastern flank of such a storm track would drive the most oil toward the central Gulf Coast.

In either case, the earliest we would have landfall would be late Tuesday into Wednesday. There is some possibility of the system's forward speed slowing, which would keep nail biting going through next week.

Tropical Depression ONE
www.nhc.noaa.gov...



[edit on 6/25/2010 by Hx3_1963]