Hurricane Watch 2010

DT4

Projected path

reply to post by Anmarie96


Looks to me like TD4 is getting some decent outflow, but still no define LLC or COC. Model projections are in general concurrance of it intensifying into a tropical storm -- only 5 mph more to go.

The CMC (Candian model) is no longer developing TD4 into anything, however it is developing the "Panama blob" into a low-level TS. Link To CMC short run ETA: AND something........ toward the east coast of Florida ... remenants of TD4? Just a note: It's been my experience that the CMC tends toward overdeveloping storms sometimes.

We'll see.

[edit on 2/8/10 by argentus]

Going to have to watch this one. A degree or so more westerly and it could visit my area.

It's been several years since we had a good blow. There will be many downed trees and much damage as the last blow was Dora in the 60's.

We've had some come very close and had fairly high winds and much rain bit a hurricane full on would be disaster.

Our was evacuated a few years back and after all that trouble to pack up and spend hours inching along the interstate the hurricane veered and hit Charleston, SC.

I will not evacuate again. I might if the intensity is very high. lol

The latest advisory (the 5pm EST) from the National Hurricane Center says:

...DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by dizziedame


Evacuating might be a pain in the arse, but it is better than the alternative. Even though I do remember some friends of mine doing the dumbest thing ever down in Florida back in the 80's. When Hugo hit the Carolina's, we went surfing in Cocoa Beach.

However, I am now a lot older (doubtful on the wiser part, lol), and I lost a good friend of mine and fellow Vet during the Katrina storm. With that said, I hope that you never get hit by another Hurricane ever, but if you do, 'Choose wisely'.

Back to the main topic, there is another small disturbance that has only a 10% chance of forming, as it is too close to the continent of South America and the landmass is preventing further formation, despite good upper level conditions.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

The 11 pm update from the NHC is now up:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.
...

Tropical Storm Colin

000
WTNT34 KNHC 030831
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

...DEPRESSION FOUR BECOMES THE THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 47.2W
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF COLIN.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN WILL PASS WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.


Projected Path

The 11 am update did not show much change in anything either.

...COLIN MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

www.stormpulse.com...


[edit on 3-8-2010 by lasertaglover]

WTNT34 KNHC 032042
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

...RAPIDLY MOVING COLIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA....

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND
VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT

It appears that Colin is having a hard time leaving the party lol

Source

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND
VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Just a guess, of course, but if I lived or near Nova Scotia, I think I'd be keeping an eye on the remenants of Collin; The way the Bermuda High is set up (currently), I think there's a fair probability that an intensifying extra-tropical Collin could brush NS.

reply to post by argentus


Great point. And Bermuda definitely should be watching closely. It's at a 70% chance of getting re-classified.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 20 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...AND AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE
WHETHER IT HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

The Eastern Pacific bears watching as well.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...


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Yeah, Bermuda needs to keep a close eye on Colin, and we have another wave to track as well now:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN BERMUDA.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/209f7ce263ca.gif[/atsimg]

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Things to watch.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/6d64224a8d15.gif[/atsimg]

Definitely heating up out there.

The upper level sheer has been our friend this season...so far

reply to post by UberL33t


Exactly. It has been helping a lot to keep everything nice and calm. But the water temperatures are really heating up now also. Just have to keep watching.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BUT THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

Two low pressure systems each with a 60% chance of development. However, the one far out in the Atlantic is headed towards an area that will make it more difficult to develop, while the one that just crossed over Florida is expected to have further development.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

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