Hurricane Watch 2010

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
NNNN

reply to post by UberL33t


That is not a weather forecast.
That is a NOT weather forecast.

mclinking

reply to post by mclinking

That is a NOT weather forecast.

Let's hope they stay as such!

Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN
HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

reply to post by UberL33t


Odds are up to 50%, which is interesting with this system being so close to the equator at this time of year:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN NOAA

Waiting for the new models to show themselves, I have a feeling they are going to be a little more westerly this time, with the previous model from GFS already being way off track. Looks like the COC is now at about 36 degrees, which puts it closer to the initial points of the BAMS, BAMM, and BAMD models.

Go wind shear go!

New to this part of the site, but I was looking up some information on hurricanes today and saw this thread and thought I would give an update.

The new models are in and that region is now up to 60% development chance.

Celia Becomes Season's First Hurricane

Celia was upgraded to hurricane status Sunday as it howled toward open seas, away from Mexico's Pacific coast.

cbs5.com...

At least this one is in the Pacific.

reply to post by berkeleygal


Celia churns into powerful Category 5 hurricane over open Pacific waters; no threat to land

www.disasterupdates.com...

www.wunderground.com...

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Surface observations and satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure centered between the eastern tip of Honduras and Jamaica has become better defined this evening. Surface pressures have been falling in the area and there has been an increase in the shower activity. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development and the system could become a tropical depression before it reaches the yucatan peninsula in a couple of days. There is a high chance, 60 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.


This could be the first major concern for the Gulf of Mexico - it was updated today.

Update on Gulf Coast Weather

Video From Weather.com here -> www.weather.com...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/3cc608a160cf.png[/atsimg]

Could be the First Oilcane of 2010!

Are you Ready?

These Model runs do not look good for the AL, MS, and LA Gulf Coast.



[edit on 25-6-2010 by SWCCFAN]

The models have all changed now....Tropical Storm Alex is going to hit mexico no where near the northern Gulf Coast and well south of Texas

According to this newly released model;

www.wunderground.com...

if you live in Houston.................

But anything forecasted more then 3 days out is for entertainment purposes only.

HOWEVER, I do expect the high ridge in the northern Gulf to swift east and/or weaken. This would certainly allow a turn to the north/east. And if it stalls, wobbles, or continues to travel slowly, it will have plenty of time to gain strength.

I am hoping that if I predict this to happen, it won't. So that's my prediction. Hoping for the jinx.

By the way, isn't this storm absolutely massive in size or is it just me?

Most of the computer models have it making landfall well south of the Texas-Mexico border however, most of the ensemble models have it hitting Texas.



[edit on 6/26/2010 by Genfinity]

[edit on 6/27/2010 by Genfinity]

Watch that eye explode as it hits the warmer than normal gulf waters


www.goes.noaa.gov...

In the last 8 hours or so, TS Alex has only moved at 5mph. For a person, that is a brisk walking speed or a slow jogging speed (although a tall person will obviously move faster then a short person).

Currently, it is drifting due north.

The models, mostly for entertainment purposes only, still have it making a hard westerly turn toward the Brownsville, TX area.

Those models are a joke. Any hurricane forecast more then 2 days out is suspect at the very best.

Again, the models are less of a forecast tool (for the average person) and more of an entertainment tool.

Pick a model and watch it go all over the place from day to day.

So right now, it is headed due north, straight for the oil disaster. Until I see it change direction, that is what it's doing.

I am not 100% on what the high ridge is doing and that will play a major role in what Alex does.

It's expected to gain in strength, pick up forward speed, and bank hard to the left.

It's a massive storm cloud-wise. Look at the cloud cover on a radar. It's ridiculous.

Four things to watch;
Actual size of the storm
Winds
Forward speed
millibars (barametric pressure)

Actual size-already a worst case scenerio.
Winds-expected to increase in the next 48 hours. Gulf water is unusually warm so how much it increases is anyone's guess.
Forward speed-The longer it stay over water, the worse this storm will get. It can't get much bigger then what it already is but it can get badder (is "badder" a real word?).
Millibars-The lower the Alex's millibars are, the more it favors becoming a more severe storm.

Honestly, if you live near the coast from due north of this storm to due west, keep an eye on it.

Updates will come from NOAA at 1am/pm, 4am/pm, 7am/pm, 10am/pm central time every day until it makes landfall.

If the storm is within 500 miles of you OR can reach you at it's current forward speed within 48 hours or less, you should be very alert.

But this isn't news to us coastal vets.

I hope it doesn't hit Houston (where I am) but I hope it doesn't hit that oil either.

See you all in the morning.

Mexico got raped by Alex...and it was just a category 2...

Here some pictures...

And 20% chance of tropical depression forming almost in the middle of the oil spill.

[edit on 3-7-2010 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by Vitchilo



I have never seen this much damage from a Cat2 - I sat on my balcony near the beach during a Cat 2 and was fine. Now we have more to fear if it hits the Gulf. Thanks for the info and images.

Yeah it got that bad because of all the three days of rain...

Another tropical depression forming in the Caribbean Sea...

2. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

In other news... anyone knows what was the earliest hurricane on record?

[edit on 4-7-2010 by Vitchilo]

What's up in the North Atlantic?

Pic

Update on the Caribbean sea situation...

THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[edit on 5-7-2010 by Vitchilo]

This one just coming off of the coast of Africa, get's my vote for the next "Big" thing, have a personal feeling about this for some reason... nothing more






weather.myfoxtampabay.com...

[edit on 6-7-2010 by freetree64]