In the last 8 hours or so, TS Alex has only moved at 5mph. For a person, that is a brisk walking speed or a slow jogging speed (although a tall
person will obviously move faster then a short person).
Currently, it is drifting due north.
The models, mostly for entertainment purposes only, still have it making a hard westerly turn toward the Brownsville, TX area.
Those models are a joke. Any hurricane forecast more then 2 days out is suspect at the very best.
Again, the models are less of a forecast tool (for the average person) and more of an entertainment tool.
Pick a model and watch it go all over the place from day to day.
So right now, it is headed due north, straight for the oil disaster. Until I see it change direction, that is what it's doing.
I am not 100% on what the high ridge is doing and that will play a major role in what Alex does.
It's expected to gain in strength, pick up forward speed, and bank hard to the left.
It's a massive storm cloud-wise. Look at the cloud cover on a radar. It's ridiculous.
Four things to watch;
Actual size of the storm
Winds
Forward speed
millibars (barametric pressure)
Actual size-already a worst case scenerio.
Winds-expected to increase in the next 48 hours. Gulf water is unusually warm so how much it increases is anyone's guess.
Forward speed-The longer it stay over water, the worse this storm will get. It can't get much bigger then what it already is but it can get badder
(is "badder" a real word?).
Millibars-The lower the Alex's millibars are, the more it favors becoming a more severe storm.
Honestly, if you live near the coast from due north of this storm to due west, keep an eye on it.
Updates will come from
NOAA at 1am/pm, 4am/pm, 7am/pm, 10am/pm central time every day until it makes landfall.
If the storm is within 500 miles of you OR can reach you at it's current forward speed within 48 hours or less, you should be very alert.
But this isn't news to us coastal vets.
I hope it doesn't hit Houston (where I am) but I hope it doesn't hit that oil either.
See you all in the morning.
