N. Korea: No longer bound by 1953 truce

I don't think either sides would use nukes in a war, simply because of the closeness of the 2 countries and with Russia and China right there too. The radiation would hurt all those parties and I think everybody realises this.

I see NK winning this one diplomatically, the fact is South Korea, and world trade in general has much more to lose than the NK. Seoul can be wiped out quickly, this woud cause stockmarkets to crash and unpredictable economic consequences. The USA has the power to wipe out NK, but that would be suicidal for SK because the million strong army would have nothing else to do but fight til the end, never mind the millions of refugees pouring into SK in a post war scenario.

And it is the kind of conflict that would lead no room for stalemate. If USA/SK wins, then China will roll in and occupy NK that I can bet on it. I dont think the Chinese would tolerate American forces right at their border. Too much is at stake strategically. Even if NK wins, China may jump on the opportunity to save the day and take control of the new Korea.

In the end I believe there will be only one winner and that is China. Right now the West is powerless and playing with fire by trying to maintain this status quo of keeping NK as the vile regime to justify military presence and businesses in the region.

Originally posted by ProtoplasmicTraveler


I don't think many people have the real grasp that N. Korea has been digging in and entrenching and fortifying it's positions for 56 years in a war that in fact never ended.

its called the Maginot Line

the only strategy that will work for North Korea if they go to war with the West, will be an insurgency style guerrilla warfare.

Trying to fight the west in large scale field battles is complete suicide. There is no way to win fighting the "redcoats by using line battle tactics"

Kim doesnt want a war anyways, he wants a new Xbox hehe

reply to post by solidshot


Why would China risk billion's of Dollars worth of trade with South Korea and Japan - both are among the biggest consumers of Chinese goods.

The Chinese do not want a war next door, especially since thousands (if not hundreds and thousands) of North Korean refugees will seek sanctuary in China.

Originally posted by palg1
reply to post by kyred

 

That is the kind of attitude that leads to WWs. If you recall the US had that same mentality just prior to WWII. Where did that lead your country?
I'll tell you..... It left you vulnerable to suprise attackes and left your allies holding the bag until you guys came to your senses.

Think on that!

How did the US not getting involved early in WWII have to do with the war starting?

reply to post by muzzleflash

its called the Maginot Line

Worked well for the French, LOL!

reply to post by solidshot
"Seems to me the thing we have to watch for is China's response to this? if China backs North Korea then things could start to kick off, but if they don't then no doubt they will start to back down?"

That's the thing right there. China "may" be neutral in this, but if they feel the responce is to harsh, I feel they'll step in. Also, we can't forget, they hold about all our debt so this could get ugly fast.

reply to post by infinite


so true its all about money BUT

this miss understanding of the nutty kimmy is not a good idea

reply to post by maloy

Maloy, at some point, one has to draw a line.

Those Japanese who were so anti-nuclear are rapidly dying off, and the loathing they felt for nuclear weapons are being replaced by an absolute requirement for self-defense. It's not like Obama has a pair.

Given a choice between sink or swim, I'm betting they'd prefer to swim.

How does a nuclear armed Japan stabilize the situation? It doesn't. It actually spreads the threat. Another joker in the deck for North Korea and China to be concerned with.

It's real hard to look in all directions at the same time.

Besides, China can shut North Korea completely down anytime they want. They could have prevented North Korea from nuclear weapons, and you'll note the Chinese didn't give a **** about destabilizing the area.

China has never, NEVER held back their attack dog. North Korea has been a Chinese client-state for decades, and this was an indirect tactic against the US and Japan. And it's been working.

Time for a new player.

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

As for the Israelis, they only lack heavy bombers and tankers. Give them those, and Iran will lose their threat, either by giving up their weapons program, or losing it. Especially if we could throw in a couple dozen F-22's to plow the field.

You seem to think you have the North Koreans figured out.

Keep dreaming. They've taken the world by surprise more than once. And I don't recall you predicting any of their surprises.

reply to post by ProtoplasmicTraveler


Not gonna happen. N Korea has always postured and rattled the sabre to get something from the world.

Its like a baby who cries for a pacifier, gets it, then cries for food, gets it, cries for diaper change, gets it, repeat cycle.

I bet they ran out of food or armani suits for the higher ups and want to trade it in for their "nuclear" capabilities.

According to the latest AP Wires on Yahoo News, the North Koreans are now threatening to attack U.S. Warships in the waters near the Korean Penninsula. The leader of North Korean is now playing "The Game of the Foxes," to quote the title of a book by Ladislas Faragos. Kim-Il Song is playing "Brinmenship" like there is now tomorrow. Let's just hope that he doesn't miscalculate like Hitler did in 1939 when he invaded Poland while thinking that Britain and France wouldn't honor their treaties with Poland and declare war against Germany. I thought war would break out in the mid 1990's between the two Koreas and with the U.S. supporting South Korea. I don't think we'll be lucky enough to avoid it this time, especially IF North Koreas really means to carry through with it's threats now.

Originally posted by dooper
Those Japanese who were so anti-nuclear are rapidly dying off, and the loathing they felt for nuclear weapons are being replaced by an absolute requirement for self-defense. It's not like Obama has a pair.

Japan doesn't need nukes for self defense. They are under the US nuclear umbrella, which works out the best for them - they don't need to host any missiles and do not become targets for others' tactical missiles. And why do you think that you are correct about Japanese sentiments towards nuclear weapons? Do you actually know what percentage of the population is opposed to nuclear armament there?

Originally posted by dooper
How does a nuclear armed Japan stabilize the situation? It doesn't. It actually spreads the threat. Another joker in the deck for North Korea and China to be concerned with.

The more jokers you place in the game, the more jokers you are going to get as a response from China and NK. What this leads to eventually is a tense situation which nobody can predict. Sure it might be bad for China and might anger China, but it hardly does the US any good. Plus as I have said - I do not view China as a destabilizing factor here, so there is really no need to alienate it. Plus what do you think Russia's response to such an action will be? Do you want Russia to bring its jokers to the table as well?

Originally posted by dooper
Besides, China can shut North Korea completely down anytime they want.

Don't be so certain. All these years Kim's main objective was to be his own king, and he hoped that a nuke will finally allow that to transpire. China might no longer have much influence over him. Still China knows what is going on in NK, and would in no way favor an attack by NK on South Korea as others mentioned in this thread.

Originally posted by dooper
They could have prevented North Korea from nuclear weapons, and you'll note the Chinese didn't give a **** about destabilizing the area.

Perhaps they view Israel obtaining nuclear weapons and US overseeing the whole thing as a similar situation. US allowed Israel to get nukes, thereby destabilizing Middle East, so why can't NK do the same with China's supervision? Anyway there is still no concensus on China's role in NK obtaining nuclear technology. We can only guess.

Originally posted by dooper
China has never, NEVER held back their attack dog. North Korea has been a Chinese client-state for decades, and this was an indirect tactic against the US and Japan. And it's been working..

An attack dog that never attacked anybody since the 50's. You may be right about NK's relationship with China, but the fact is that currently an attack by NK on South Korea isn't likely, and China wouldn't support it.

But judging by Kim's character, I would say he is too independent and ambitious to be completely controlled by China.

Originally posted by dooper
As for the Israelis, they only lack heavy bombers and tankers. Give them those, and Iran will lose their threat, either by giving up their weapons program, or losing it. Especially if we could throw in a couple dozen F-22's to plow the field.

It is not the lack of technology that is stopping Israel from disabling Iran's nuclear capabilities. Their modified F-16's and F-15's are capable to do the job, especially if the US provides assistance. There is nothing they can do with B2's and F-22's that they can't do with what they already have. They are holding back from attacking Iran for a number of other political reasons.

Originally posted by dooper
Keep dreaming. They've taken the world by surprise more than once. And I don't recall you predicting any of their surprises.

Not too hard to predict, as these events haven't really been surprises. Take a look at NK's history over the last decades. They have been playing the same game nonstop, gradually shifting between improving relations with South Korea and the West and then breaking them off again.


Here is my prediction on what will happen next:

More rocket tests by NK, more sabre rattling, more war talk, but no action. Another nuke test is unlikely, because now that NK has ascertained that they have working technology they rather stockpile what few warheads they can make than test them. The situation subsides somewhat after half a year or so, and the 6 party talks resume. In a few years NK again agrees to cease nuclear program in return for aid by the West. And then when Kim loses his grip on power again it's back to missiles tests and chest beating. That is of course assuming no coup and no regime change. In that case all bets are off, but the likelyhood is that NK will strive to improve relations with South Korea and US.


Sure that prediction is boring and uninteresting - no wars, no mass bloodshed, no heroic US army coming to save the day, no excitement - but I tend to favor pragmatism rather than sensationalism.

[edit on 27-5-2009 by maloy]

USA is again provoking that kim jong 2 again huh ... seriously nk is now a nuke power , if I were USA , i wouldnt attack them they would strike back with biological weapons(the only weapons their ICBM can deliver successfully )
and biological would destroy most of US population or at least kill hundreds of millions in USA

so why is USA provoking NK ?? are the Armageddonites in american govt , secretly fantaszing about the apocalyse being unleashed and Jesus Christ coming from heaven

An attack dog that never attacked anybody since the 50's???

check your facts, they've shot down at least one US plane, and look up the fate of the USS pueblo. That incident was in 1968.

[edit on 27-5-2009 by eightonefive]

Originally posted by Kombatt98
USA is again provoking that kim jong 2 again huh ... seriously nk is now a nuke power , if I were USA , i wouldnt attack them they would strike back with biological weapons(the only weapons their ICBM can deliver successfully )
and biological would destroy most of US population or at least kill hundreds of millions in USA

so why is USA provoking NK ??

are the Armageddonites in american govt , secretly fantaszing about the apocalyse being unleashed and Jesus Christ coming from heaven

WTF?!

How is America "provoking" N.Korea?

N.Korea has launched rockets, tested a Nuke, launched more rockets, made threats of attack, stated that they no longer hold to a ceasefire agreement...

America has done what exactly?

The only aggressor in this story is N.Korea, stamping their feet and making threatening gestures to its neighbours.

Posts like your make me suspicious. They refute all common sense and completely defy logic.

Edited for bad grammar.

[edit on 27-5-2009 by detachedindividual]

Originally posted by detachedindividual

How is America "provoking" N.Korea?

By stopping the shipping of North Korea they have broken the terms of the truce agreed in the 1950's (as stated earlier in the thread)

reply to post by solidshot


It is allowed to occur in international waters, which North Korea is nicely redefining as we speak. No American of South Korean vessel will enter official North Koreans due to the two Koreans navy's exchanging bullets a few years back.

This convoy, will only enter North Korean vessels in international waters, Spain boarded one of their ships in the Indian Ocean.

[edit on 27-5-2009 by infinite]

Originally posted by eightonefive
An attack dog that never attacked anybody since the 50's???

What you claim to be attacks others may view as defensive strikes. Whatever the real circumstances, NK has not staged an attack on South Korea since the 50's.

Originally posted by eightonefive
check your facts, they've shot down at least one US plane

OH NO - one whole plane and one ship. How many planes, ships, tanks, heck even towns and cities has US destroyed on foreign soil since the Korean War? If NK is an attack dog, then by the same measure the US is a pack of rabid wolves.


Just to be clear I do not support NK's current actions, and their past actions can be perceived as aggressive. The point I am trying to make is that there is no reason to suspect that NK is readying an attack on South Korea, and that militant attitude by the US will not solve anything and will not help stabilize the situation.

[edit on 27-5-2009 by maloy]

Originally posted by Kombatt98
USA is again provoking that kim jong 2 again huh ... seriously nk is now a nuke power , if I were USA , i wouldnt attack them they would strike back with biological weapons(the only weapons their ICBM can deliver successfully )
and biological would destroy most of US population or at least kill hundreds of millions in USA

so why is USA provoking NK ??

are the Armageddonites in american govt , secretly fantaszing about the apocalyse being unleashed and Jesus Christ coming from heaven

ROFLMAO.....credibility went out the window suggesting NK and the capability to deliver such weapons via a ICBM. There last fell short by, oh, some 3,000 miles!!!

One thing some of you might take into account. That hazy day when Kimmi's dad dropped, there was an obvious (not literal) dark cloud hanging over the DMZ. I know I was there.

The fact that Kimmi was taking the reigns had caused alot of tension. Prior to that day Kimmi had repeatedely called for the full force of NK to be levelled against the south. His dad held him in check.

This was not taken lightly by anyone there. I believe that this is still what pre-occupies him

reply to post by ProtoplasmicTraveler

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Got that part - but they're trying to get them...

link

I'm just wondering how that would play out considering what you've posted about Korea North...