SCI: The new flu, an analytical approach

reply to post by MexicanACME


Thank you very much for your information.
Luckily my GF understand spanish

The most interesting things from that page is that the flu shows about the same age-death distribution as the spanish flu.

I was also rather impressed looking at the exponential infected graph, as it was pretty damn close to mine, but from an far earlier part of the pandemic.

Star for you m8

BTW just checked my function and report at end of the day should be(if my function is correct):
Infected: 2866+-150
Dead:53 +-5

I wont update graph timelines before after the evening report.


@ the poster asking about death rates:

A quick check at my calculations and data i get about 2,2% but i would guess that would be +- 0,4% or around there.
(using numbers of statistical value)

-Zyk

[edit on 8-5-2009 by Zykloner]

[edit on 8-5-2009 by Zykloner]

[edit on 8-5-2009 by Zykloner]

Couple of questions:

1.) If you don't mind, would you mind posting your excel file somewhere, I'd like to take a look?

2.) On the charts, I think it would be better if you overlaid the death "area chart" on top of the infection chart to get a better picture of how it is trending, would you mind posting that?

BTW, great work, starred, flagged, favved, and subscribed!

Ummm...better upgrade yer "formula"

Developments on swine flu worldwide
47 minutes ago
www.google.com...

Key developments on swine flu outbreaks, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization and government officials:

_Deaths: 45 in Mexico and two in the U.S., both in Texas. One of those who died in the U.S. was a toddler from Mexico. Canadian officials say an Alberta woman in her 30s with swine flu died April 28, but she had underlying medical conditions and it's unclear the disease played a role in her death.

_Confirmed cases: More than 3,100 worldwide in 28 countries, including more than 1,100 in Mexico, at least 1,639 in the United States and 214 in Canada.

More at Link...

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Hx3, if your numbers are correct. The trendline hardly changed at all.

The new formula I extract from his chart would be:
y = 28.803x2 - 158.7x + 216.8
R2 = 0.9963

That R2 figure means there is very little margin of error. Extrapolating from there puts us at around 3640 tomorrow May 9, 4317 May 10, 5051 on Monday May 11.

If nothing changes, it should hit 10,000 cases on or before May 17th.

Strictly mathematically speaking, as I still think the whole flu is overhyped for now. I think the true concern is for next winter.

I defer to Zyk's "official" numbers when he gets back online in Australia. He should be concerned, because this thing will probably fester in the southern hemisphere of the next 6 months of winter for them.

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
Ummm...better upgrade yer "formula"

Developments on swine flu worldwide
47 minutes ago
www.google.com...

Key developments on swine flu outbreaks, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization and government officials:

_Deaths: 45 in Mexico and two in the U.S., both in Texas. One of those who died in the U.S. was a toddler from Mexico. Canadian officials say an Alberta woman in her 30s with swine flu died April 28, but she had underlying medical conditions and it's unclear the disease played a role in her death.

_Confirmed cases: More than 3,100 worldwide in 28 countries, including more than 1,100 in Mexico, at least 1,639 in the United States and 214 in Canada.

More at Link...

the official reported cases are surely rising huh!

I have less worries for us richer countries in the Northen Hemisphere but some poor countries in the Southern Hemisphere could have serious problems ahead these coming months.



[edit on 8-5-2009 by Chevalerous]

reply to post by getreadyalready
Yeah I see yer point...

With his "formula" -/+ is only off 84 on the high side?

But...the day is not over yet and we know not what other numbers will be released...Hmmm...

Not TO far off though, I can live with that...but the NAU Flu

I see my formula is looking a little too optimistic at the moment
Hoped it would be the other way around.
As you said with overlaying death and inf i will take a look at it.
Can also post my excel file with data.

Now im jumping to bed but i will take a look at it after breakfast tomorrow, with a tuned formula as well.

@ getreadyalready I am not in Australia but in Norway, we dont even have any confirmed infected yet(officialy lol).

Thank you for all your input and help, you are showing ATS from its abseloutly best side.

Stay tuned

-Zyk

[edit on 8-5-2009 by Zykloner]

reply to post by Zykloner


S&F!

You people and your math, not my strongest subject by any means so I will take the word of people that know what they are doing. It is surprising that this flu is still taking off like this with the warmer weather. Makes me wonder if the summer will slow it down at all...

reply to post by Zykloner
I hope your 2.2% +/- is closer...as I'm only basing on the past 2-3 days

Looking forward to your next posting Hx3

[edit on 5/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by iamjesusphish
Wonder no more...

Warm weather may not halt swine flu
16:16 08 May 2009
www.newscientist.com...

New data from Mexico and case numbers so far suggest that if the spread of H1N1 "swine flu" continues elsewhere as it has in the Americas, the virus could infect more than a billion people by July.

The data also suggests that the virus may not be slowed by summer temperatures in temperate countries. However, it spreads slowly enough to respond to the "social distancing" measures used in Mexico.

2009 H1N1 has been circulating, geneticists estimate, since last autumn, but it was first recognized in Mexico in April. New data released by the Mexican health ministry (pdf) reveals disturbing similarities with the last H1N1 pandemic, in 1918.

More at Link...

Expert warns of a swine flu-bird flu mix
Friday, 8 May 2009
www.independent.co.uk...

[edit on 5/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Hi

I have now made new graphs on official infected and dead, last datapoints on official graphs are from Hx3’s google report of 3100 infected as it appears that WHO are lagging a little behind with their press releases atm.

I have also made new calculated graphs compansating for the time lab tests take, on my new calculated graphs i have used a polynomial function of 3rd degree as it seem to fit best at this time.
I feel that an exponential function would be better, and it probably will as time passes.

At poster asking about dead/infected in one x-y system: I have tried but as it appears that the death-rate is about 2% and death data are lagging behind the infected data it dont paint a good picture.(death graph not readable due to the data span on y axis)

I would like to thank Hx3 and getreadyalready for great input and help.

Official infected
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/371f26655644.jpg[/atsimg]

Official dead
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/7fca7f1ac63e.jpg[/atsimg]

Calulated infected compensating for the time lab tests take
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/a0f82cd180b9.jpg[/atsimg]

Calulated dead compensating for the time lab tests take
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/da27f8540c6f.jpg[/atsimg]

It appears that the deathrate has lost a little steam but i dont belive that is the case, we just dont have enough data on anything yet to calculate precisly.

WHO forecast for today:
Infected: 3700 +-175
Dead: 57 +-3

The reason i say +- is that i expect a deviation of +-5%

Now im of to breakfast,
Thanx for all S&F and for beeing active and helpful.

Stay tuned

-Zyk


[edit on 9-5-2009 by Zykloner]

[edit on 9-5-2009 by Zykloner]

[edit on 9-5-2009 by Zykloner]

[edit on 9-5-2009 by Zykloner]

Thought I would add this line graph. Looks like the disease is spreading rapidly. If the disease increases it's mortality rate in the fall, it could be a very interesting problem for the world.

EXCELLENT work, Zykloner. S&F.

THANK YOU! ...a really great contribution.

My crit:
1. The deaths are occurring primarily in Mexico, and appear to have levelled of - can you revise by geographic region and changing virulence? If you do, how does it change the stats?
2. By all reports, H1N1 is not a killer on its own - the real danger is that it will recombine with a more deadly strain like H5N1 or another killer virus. Can you do a projection of a new strain with a higher death rate, for the second wave?

...Ignore me if you want. I know it's a lot of work and I can be a real pain.

The work as it stands is truly excellent.

-sofi

looks like a half parabola, how very intimidating. ha.. right.

Not being at all skilled with numbers, I have really wanted to see a graph of this nature. thanks for all of your hard work, it is very impressive and shows your dedication to denying ignorance.

How are we going to be able to use the mild cases that md's say they won't test? They say it's because they're now watching for mutations, but it skews everything. I'm kinda dreading hearing about people 20 days after they had the mild form.

Great new graphs Zyk! We appreciate all your hard work. Sorry about thinking you were in Australia, I guess the "m8" and the time zone difference led me to the wrong country.

As to the poster wanting to know about all the cases that are not being tested now, I agree fully. I think this flu probably started in late January, but didn't have a name until the border cases were caught by the CDC in March/April. We are probably only seeing a small fraction of actual infections, and that is possibly why the death rate seems high.

I think Zyk is correct in using only official or WHO numbers. Anything else would require a lot of speculation and would lose credibility.

Zyk

I grabbed some graphs from Wiki but I'm not able to post them. It's charts regarding the deaths in 1918.

en.wikipedia.org...

From what I've heard the 2% rate you mentioned seems to be similar to what was seen in 1918. It began like this one and then got worse in the second of three waves.

Can you (or anyone else) make sense of those graphs and compare it to what is happening now?

I'd really like to see a side-by-side comparison with the rate of infection then and now.

Thx

Hi again

Thank you for all S&F

@ soficrow: you are in no way a pain, you contribute to the thread, thank you. I do belive that at the moment the higher number of deaths in mexico is only a matter of time. At mutations with H5N1, i dont even want to think about it, i belive this is bad enough as it is. (even though i have thought about it and it will probably give death rates that are NOT good)

@poster asking about 1918 flu and similiarites there is not much to say, other than it is close to the 1918 flu as i can see.

@poster asking about regions: i know that has been done on official sites including CDC. My point with this thread is too get a world wide perspective, as i am sure that this will be a world wide event.

I will get a new "official" update up tomorrow with recalculated graphs at about 11:00 GMT

Thank you for appriciating my work, it makes me carry on.

Stay tuned

-Zyk

[edit on 9-5-2009 by Zykloner]

reply to post by Zykloner


Thanks for this. Seems like the start of a cycle.
do you have the raw data in a spreadsheet you could share?